Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-28 (built 05:15 UTC), 189 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.30
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=+0.52
- frustration z=+0.16
- greed z=+0.26
- hope z=-1.32
- optimism z=-3.17
- panic z=+1.05
- skepticism z=+0.60
- uncertainty z=+0.75
2. energy_insecurity panic ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.12
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=+0.94
- frustration z=-1.34
- greed z=-0.64
- hope z=-0.89
- optimism z=-1.64
- panic z=+1.69
- skepticism z=+0.51
- uncertainty z=-0.44
3. recession hope ↑ euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-0.50
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+1.14
- frustration z=+0.43
- greed z=-0.16
- hope z=+1.52
- optimism z=+1.30
- panic z=+1.41
- skepticism z=+0.73
- uncertainty z=+0.96
4. technology_paradigm_shift greed ↓
- confidence z=+0.21
- euphoria z=-0.52
- fear z=+1.18
- frustration z=+0.23
- greed z=-1.55
- hope z=-0.64
- optimism z=-0.27
- panic z=+0.56
- skepticism z=-0.81
- uncertainty z=+1.18
5. AI_boom optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.07
- euphoria z=-0.74
- fear z=+0.49
- frustration z=-0.80
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=+0.13
- optimism z=-2.10
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=+0.01
- uncertainty z=+0.65
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -54%
-6.75 DoD change — now at 38th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.53
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.00
- frustration z=+0.19
- greed z=+0.18
- hope z=-0.74
- optimism z=-2.24
- panic z=+0.29
- skepticism z=+0.38
- uncertainty z=+0.30
energy_insecurity ↓ -61%
-4.68 DoD change — now at 39th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.66
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.80
- frustration z=-0.28
- greed z=+0.03
- hope z=-0.70
- optimism z=-1.91
- panic z=+0.96
- skepticism z=+0.52
- uncertainty z=+0.53
technology_paradigm_shift ↓ -56%
-2.88 DoD change — now at 27th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.27
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.58
- frustration z=+0.44
- greed z=-0.58
- hope z=-0.58
- optimism z=-0.46
- panic z=+0.05
- skepticism z=-0.03
- uncertainty z=+0.49
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: -40% WoW — trend decelerating
-3.92 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.85
- euphoria z=-1.50
- fear z=+0.58
- frustration z=+1.52
- greed z=-1.72
- hope z=-0.58
- optimism z=-3.54
- panic z=+1.09
- skepticism z=-0.88
- uncertainty z=+0.37
energy_insecurity: -53% WoW — trend decelerating
-3.41 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.95
- euphoria z=-1.29
- fear z=+0.88
- frustration z=-0.88
- greed z=-1.90
- hope z=-0.67
- optimism z=-1.39
- panic z=+1.98
- skepticism z=+0.29
- uncertainty z=-0.46
technology_paradigm_shift: -54% WoW — trend decelerating
-2.64 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.11
- euphoria z=-1.36
- fear z=+0.78
- frustration z=+1.06
- greed z=-2.74
- hope z=-0.67
- optimism z=-0.13
- panic z=-0.09
- skepticism z=-1.16
- uncertainty z=+0.87
Narratives to Look Out For
recessionp79
Attention is at the 79th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.50
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+1.14
- frustration z=+0.43
- greed z=-0.16
- hope z=+1.52
- optimism z=+1.30
- panic z=+1.41
- skepticism z=+0.73
- uncertainty z=+0.96
fed_pivotp79
Attention is at the 79th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.17
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.16
- frustration z=+0.81
- greed z=-1.85
- hope z=+1.18
- optimism z=+1.51
- panic z=-0.41
- skepticism z=-1.15
- uncertainty z=+0.44
stagflationp73
Attention is at the 73th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.26
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.11
- frustration z=+0.38
- greed z=+0.34
- hope z=+0.28
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=+0.86
- skepticism z=+0.39
- uncertainty z=+0.76
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: -0.51 — Skepticism z-score: -0.79.
Fear most concentrated in energy_insecurity
Average fear score for energy_insecurity: 0.90.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.80), energy_insecurity (0.90), recession (0.67).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.015 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.
Narratives driving novelty shift
recession (+4.6%), energy_insecurity (-4.0%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p38 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+20%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.51, regime_score=+1.57
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 5.8203 | -6.7466 | -3.9160 | 38th | 9 | |
| recession | 3.5365 | -2.1860 | +0.2160 | 79th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.0089 | -4.6809 | -3.4149 | 39th | 7 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.4962 | -1.9135 | -1.1200 | 45th | 8 | |
| AI_boom | 2.4033 | -2.5849 | -1.8715 | 31th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.2215 | -2.8806 | -2.6364 | 27th | 10 | |
| inflation | 2.1347 | -1.7305 | -2.0320 | 38th | 8 | |
| crypto_adoption | 1.7295 | -1.9757 | -1.4233 | 34th | 5 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.6088 | -0.6248 | -0.6912 | 47th | 7 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 1.5473 | -2.6496 | -1.8196 | 39th | 7 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 13,431 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 115 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 9,141 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 27,460 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,864 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,864 total posts | 4,404 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 909 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 840 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 799 |
| r/investing | 744 |
| r/economics | 696 |
| r/stocks | 664 |
| r/StockMarket | 466 |
| r/options | 393 |
| r/finance | 114 |
| r/TrueReddit | 105 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 72 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 62 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-28
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| earnings_miss | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.3582 | +0.1196 (+50.1%) | -0.0918 (-20.4%) |
| stagflation | 1.3180 | -0.4102 (-23.7%) | +0.2160 (+19.6%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.0300 | -0.0325 (-52.0%) | -0.2548 (-89.5%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.8284 | -0.0631 (-7.1%) | -0.2605 (-23.9%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.4287 | -0.0275 (-6.0%) | -0.3246 (-43.1%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
115 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-28 05:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 13431 |
| narrative_scores | 9141 |
| fetch_runs | 115 |
| post_rankings | 27460 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |