Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-10 (built 18:53 UTC), 266 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.05
- euphoria z=+0.30
- fear z=-1.90
- frustration z=-0.15
- greed z=-0.79
- hope z=-0.90
- optimism z=-2.06
- panic z=-0.03
- skepticism z=-0.89
- uncertainty z=-1.01
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.35
- euphoria z=+0.64
- fear z=-2.06
- frustration z=-1.20
- greed z=-1.69
- hope z=-1.08
- optimism z=-1.52
- panic z=-0.60
- skepticism z=-0.98
- uncertainty z=-1.11
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.48
- euphoria z=+2.39
- fear z=-1.52
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=+0.19
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=-0.24
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=+0.05
4. commodities_supercycle optimism ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.71
- euphoria z=-0.51
- fear z=-2.18
- frustration z=-2.08
- greed z=-1.57
- hope z=+0.34
- optimism z=-2.77
- panic z=-1.26
- skepticism z=-0.58
- uncertainty z=-0.93
5. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.36
- euphoria z=+2.51
- fear z=-1.58
- frustration z=-0.87
- greed z=+0.03
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-2.11
- panic z=+0.76
- skepticism z=-0.71
- uncertainty z=+0.32
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength ↑ +1.05σ DoD
+1.05σ vs own history — +47% change, now at 89th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.52
- fear z=-0.23
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.30
- uncertainty z=-1.14
stagflation ↑ +0.66σ DoD
+0.66σ vs own history — +23% change, now at 92th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.10
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.62
- frustration z=-0.16
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.27
- optimism z=-0.59
- panic z=-0.13
- skepticism z=-0.36
- uncertainty z=+0.05
inflation ↑ +0.43σ DoD
+0.43σ vs own history — +13% change, now at 86th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.21
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.53
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.96
- optimism z=-1.47
- panic z=+0.09
- skepticism z=-0.31
- uncertainty z=-0.12
↓ Top Decreases
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.63σ DoD
-1.63σ vs own history — -13% change, now at 25th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.25
- frustration z=-0.65
- greed z=-0.74
- hope z=-1.08
- optimism z=-1.58
- panic z=-0.10
- skepticism z=-0.36
- uncertainty z=+0.15
crypto_adoption ↓ -1.53σ DoD
-1.53σ vs own history — -15% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.27
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.18
- frustration z=-0.09
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.13
- optimism z=-0.13
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.11
- uncertainty z=-1.15
energy_insecurity ↓ -1.51σ DoD
-1.51σ vs own history — -12% change, now at 19th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.41
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.32
- frustration z=-0.78
- greed z=-0.50
- hope z=-1.32
- optimism z=-0.98
- panic z=-0.14
- skepticism z=-0.06
- uncertainty z=-0.03
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +0.60σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.60σ vs own history — +103% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.85
- frustration z=-1.41
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+3.67
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.21
- skepticism z=-3.53
- uncertainty z=-2.47
demographic_shift: +0.41σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.41σ vs own history — +73% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.43
- frustration z=-1.18
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.41
- uncertainty z=-0.33
inflation: +0.28σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.28σ vs own history — +52% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.30
- euphoria z=+0.03
- fear z=-1.50
- frustration z=-1.68
- greed z=+0.43
- hope z=-0.84
- optimism z=-0.50
- panic z=+0.45
- skepticism z=-1.25
- uncertainty z=-1.65
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation: -1.36σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.36σ vs own history — -45% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.00
- frustration z=-0.66
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.15
- uncertainty z=+0.91
dollar_strength: -1.22σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.22σ vs own history — -19% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.27
- fear z=-0.95
- frustration z=+2.57
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.65
- optimism z=+0.49
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.44
- uncertainty z=-3.00
ex_usa_trade: -1.11σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.11σ vs own history — -49% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.36
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.02
- frustration z=-0.98
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.06
- optimism z=+0.27
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.72
- uncertainty z=-1.50
Narratives to Look Out For
technology_paradigm_shiftp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.48
- euphoria z=+2.39
- fear z=-1.52
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=+0.19
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=-0.24
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=+0.05
AI_boomp81
Attention is at the 81th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.36
- euphoria z=+2.51
- fear z=-1.58
- frustration z=-0.87
- greed z=+0.03
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-2.11
- panic z=+0.76
- skepticism z=-0.71
- uncertainty z=+0.32
stagflationp80
Attention is at the 80th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.88
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.21
- frustration z=-1.82
- greed z=-0.16
- hope z=+2.22
- optimism z=+0.69
- panic z=+0.04
- skepticism z=-2.48
- uncertainty z=-2.22
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.57 — Skepticism z-score: -0.21.
Fear most concentrated in banking_crisis
Average fear score for banking_crisis: 0.63.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.56), energy_insecurity (0.59), technology_paradigm_shift (0.52).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.1%), inflation (+3.1%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p54 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+103%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.57, regime_score=-1.09
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.8733 | -1.6656 | -0.3565 | 25th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.6036 | -1.0831 | +0.3443 | 19th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.2033 | -0.0329 | +0.9682 | 82th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.6163 | +0.1564 | +0.6266 | 78th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.1983 | -0.5247 | +0.1854 | 26th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.9604 | +0.4605 | +1.3619 | 86th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.6439 | -0.6192 | -0.2640 | 4th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.9682 | -0.0329 | +0.1155 | 32th | 7 | |
| recession | 2.1103 | -0.2371 | -0.8024 | 14th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.7434 | -0.0082 | +0.2996 | 50th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-10
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| inflation | 5.9201 | +2.6343 (+80.2%) | +3.4678 (+141.4%) |
| AI_boom | 6.1578 | +0.8673 (+16.4%) | +2.7337 (+79.8%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.5322 | +0.3974 (+6.5%) | +2.9137 (+80.5%) |
| stagflation | 2.6662 | +1.3157 (+97.4%) | +2.0758 (+351.6%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.6986 | +0.8566 (+30.1%) | +1.3821 (+59.7%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.1941 | +0.3640 (+19.9%) | +0.9552 (+77.1%) |
| dollar_strength | 1.3826 | +1.1014 (+391.7%) | +0.2158 (+18.5%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.2992 | +0.2597 (+25.0%) | +0.7402 (+132.4%) |
| banking_crisis | 1.7604 | +0.6990 (+65.9%) | +0.0472 (+2.8%) |
| energy_insecurity | 7.5243 | -0.7677 (-9.3%) | +0.7605 (+11.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
169 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-10 16:00 UTC