Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-25 (built 17:15 UTC), 277 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by defense_rearmament, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. defense_rearmament hope ↑ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+1.48
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=-0.57
- frustration z=+1.02
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=+1.81
- optimism z=+1.51
- panic z=+1.46
- skepticism z=-0.55
- uncertainty z=-1.57
2. banking_crisis confidence ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.77
- euphoria z=-0.82
- fear z=-0.64
- frustration z=-1.59
- greed z=+0.88
- hope z=-1.12
- optimism z=-1.74
- panic z=-0.16
- skepticism z=+1.21
- uncertainty z=+0.29
3. crypto_adoption greed ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.28
- euphoria z=-1.35
- fear z=-1.80
- frustration z=+1.41
- greed z=-1.93
- hope z=-1.59
- optimism z=-0.36
- panic z=-1.23
- skepticism z=-1.06
- uncertainty z=-1.18
4. technology_paradigm_shift frustration ↑
- confidence z=+0.53
- euphoria z=-1.02
- fear z=-1.29
- frustration z=+1.84
- greed z=+0.93
- hope z=+1.02
- optimism z=+1.14
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=-0.18
- uncertainty z=-0.47
5. sector_rotation
- confidence z=+0.13
- euphoria z=-0.99
- fear z=+0.22
- frustration z=+0.71
- greed z=-0.34
- hope z=+0.03
- optimism z=+0.91
- panic z=+0.34
- skepticism z=-0.13
- uncertainty z=+0.51
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -30%
-3.97 DoD change — now at 57th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.11
- euphoria z=+0.60
- fear z=-0.97
- frustration z=-1.38
- greed z=-0.77
- hope z=-0.76
- optimism z=+0.57
- panic z=-0.74
- skepticism z=+0.39
- uncertainty z=-0.60
energy_insecurity ↓ -38%
-3.07 DoD change — now at 60th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.92
- euphoria z=+0.55
- fear z=-0.51
- frustration z=-0.30
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-1.94
- optimism z=+1.06
- panic z=-0.53
- skepticism z=+0.74
- uncertainty z=-0.12
commodities_supercycle ↓ -42%
-2.14 DoD change — now at 53th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.16
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.46
- frustration z=-1.15
- greed z=+0.24
- hope z=-1.87
- optimism z=+1.61
- panic z=+0.76
- skepticism z=+0.53
- uncertainty z=-0.20
What Changed Since Last Week
inflation: -80% WoW — trend decelerating
-5.45 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.38
- euphoria z=+1.55
- fear z=-0.07
- frustration z=-0.24
- greed z=+0.81
- hope z=+0.21
- optimism z=+1.79
- panic z=+0.56
- skepticism z=+0.78
- uncertainty z=+0.54
interest_rate_insecurity: -78% WoW — trend accelerating
-5.30 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.33
- euphoria z=-0.37
- fear z=-0.30
- frustration z=-1.73
- greed z=+0.36
- hope z=-0.89
- optimism z=+1.06
- panic z=-0.46
- skepticism z=-0.68
- uncertainty z=+1.04
fed_pivot: -91% WoW — trend accelerating
-3.37 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.30
- euphoria z=-0.72
- fear z=+0.46
- frustration z=+1.75
- greed z=-0.57
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=+0.71
- panic z=+1.44
- skepticism z=+1.58
- uncertainty z=+1.26
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -0.22 — Skepticism z-score: +0.26.
Fear most concentrated in energy_transition
Average fear score for energy_transition: 0.75.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
defense_rearmament (0.62), banking_crisis (0.65), crypto_adoption (0.40).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.031.
Watchlist
Watch defense_rearmament: if it remains above p90 for 3 days
Action: review positioning.
Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+14%)
If trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.22, regime_score=+0.25
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.2722 | -3.9738 | +1.1034 | 57th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 5.0745 | -3.0657 | +0.0950 | 60th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.4176 | +0.3898 | -1.2255 | 67th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 3.9199 | +0.5533 | -0.7668 | 54th | 8 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.2638 | -1.2241 | -0.6736 | 71th | 5 | |
| recession | 3.0814 | -0.0095 | -1.3233 | 64th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.9441 | -2.1372 | -0.1093 | 53th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8667 | -0.3704 | -0.1466 | 65th | 8 | |
| defense_rearmament | 2.1270 | +0.1158 | +0.7742 | 91th | 8 | |
| banking_crisis | 1.6165 | -0.4307 | -0.1714 | 82th | 10 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 11,937 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 105 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 8,081 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 25,060 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,400 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,400 total posts | 3,940 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 852 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 772 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 730 |
| r/investing | 688 |
| r/economics | 643 |
| r/stocks | 611 |
| r/StockMarket | 428 |
| r/options | 365 |
| r/finance | 111 |
| r/TrueReddit | 89 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 71 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 40 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-25
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense_rearmament | 2.1270 | +0.1158 (+5.8%) | +0.7742 (+57.2%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0278 | -0.0016 (-5.6%) | -0.0035 (-11.1%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0333 | -0.0020 (-5.6%) | -0.0042 (-11.1%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.2714 | +0.0673 (+32.9%) | -0.0722 (-21.0%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.4971 | +0.4219 (+560.9%) | -0.3419 (-40.7%) |
| sector_rotation | 2.8667 | -0.3704 (-11.4%) | -0.1466 (-4.9%) |
| AI_boom | 3.9199 | +0.5533 (+16.4%) | -0.7668 (-16.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
105 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-25 17:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 11937 |
| narrative_scores | 8081 |
| fetch_runs | 105 |
| post_rankings | 25060 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |