Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-01 (built 16:15 UTC), 271 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=-0.97
- euphoria z=+0.18
- fear z=-1.29
- frustration z=-0.23
- greed z=-0.10
- hope z=+0.60
- optimism z=+0.54
- panic z=+0.59
- skepticism z=+0.51
- uncertainty z=-0.36
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ greed ↓
- confidence z=-2.58
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-2.17
- frustration z=-1.31
- greed z=-2.29
- hope z=+0.02
- optimism z=-0.67
- panic z=+0.52
- skepticism z=+0.76
- uncertainty z=-1.16
3. technology_paradigm_shift frustration ↓
- confidence z=+0.40
- euphoria z=+1.48
- fear z=+0.82
- frustration z=-1.74
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=-0.50
- optimism z=+0.11
- panic z=+0.66
- skepticism z=-0.02
- uncertainty z=-0.41
4. crypto_adoption panic ↑ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-0.24
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=+0.11
- hope z=-0.59
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=+1.59
- skepticism z=-0.39
- uncertainty z=-1.57
5. AI_boom uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.08
- euphoria z=+0.88
- fear z=-0.32
- frustration z=-1.29
- greed z=+0.33
- hope z=-0.73
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+0.79
- uncertainty z=-1.87
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
recession ↑ +1.16σ DoD
+1.16σ vs own history — +41% change, now at 86th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.46
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.17
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=+1.63
- hope z=-1.83
- optimism z=-1.16
- panic z=+0.47
- skepticism z=-0.38
- uncertainty z=+0.26
housing_bubble ↑ +1.08σ DoD
+1.08σ vs own history — +111% change, now at 75th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.84
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.45
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.94
sector_rotation ↑ +0.71σ DoD
+0.71σ vs own history — +19% change, now at 79th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.36
- euphoria z=+0.52
- fear z=-0.59
- frustration z=+0.20
- greed z=+0.12
- hope z=-1.35
- optimism z=-1.08
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.86
- uncertainty z=-0.61
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.80σ DoD
-0.80σ vs own history — -8% change, now at 67th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.90
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.55
- frustration z=+0.42
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.25
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=-0.88
- skepticism z=-2.25
- uncertainty z=+1.02
interest_rate_insecurity ↓ -0.64σ DoD
-0.64σ vs own history — -23% change, now at 65th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.70
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.14
- frustration z=+1.85
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.35
- optimism z=-0.41
- panic z=-0.96
- skepticism z=-1.31
- uncertainty z=+0.82
ex_usa_trade ↓ -0.48σ DoD
-0.48σ vs own history — -29% change, now at 21th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.02
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.23
- frustration z=-0.33
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.89
- optimism z=-1.02
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.86
- uncertainty z=-0.28
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength: +0.94σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.94σ vs own history — +165% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.01
- frustration z=-0.81
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-1.96
- skepticism z=-0.95
- uncertainty z=+0.13
inflation: +0.40σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.40σ vs own history — +115% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.31
- euphoria z=+0.26
- fear z=-0.58
- frustration z=-0.05
- greed z=-1.21
- hope z=-0.47
- optimism z=-2.46
- panic z=+0.63
- skepticism z=+1.20
- uncertainty z=-1.03
fed_pivot: +0.33σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.33σ vs own history — +215% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.46
- euphoria z=-0.60
- fear z=-1.08
- frustration z=-1.50
- greed z=-1.02
- hope z=+0.51
- optimism z=+0.69
- panic z=-1.61
- skepticism z=-0.43
- uncertainty z=-1.07
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -1.23σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.23σ vs own history — -21% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.50
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.87
- frustration z=-2.57
- greed z=+0.98
- hope z=-3.10
- optimism z=-1.52
- panic z=-1.10
- skepticism z=+0.08
- uncertainty z=+2.55
demographic_shift: -1.09σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.09σ vs own history — -62% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.29
- fear z=-2.39
- frustration z=-2.33
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.29
- optimism z=+1.18
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.22
- uncertainty z=-1.36
banking_crisis: -0.93σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.93σ vs own history — -13% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.41
- fear z=-0.39
- frustration z=-0.01
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-2.23
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.63
- skepticism z=+0.29
- uncertainty z=-1.52
Narratives to Look Out For
crypto_adoptionp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-0.24
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=+0.11
- hope z=-0.59
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=+1.59
- skepticism z=-0.39
- uncertainty z=-1.57
geopolitical_riskp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.97
- euphoria z=+0.18
- fear z=-1.29
- frustration z=-0.23
- greed z=-0.10
- hope z=+0.60
- optimism z=+0.54
- panic z=+0.59
- skepticism z=+0.51
- uncertainty z=-0.36
energy_insecurityp91
Attention is at the 91th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-2.58
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-2.17
- frustration z=-1.31
- greed z=-2.29
- hope z=+0.02
- optimism z=-0.67
- panic z=+0.52
- skepticism z=+0.76
- uncertainty z=-1.16
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.85 — Skepticism z-score: -0.26.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.75.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.67), energy_insecurity (0.69), technology_paradigm_shift (0.50).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.003 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch dollar_strength: WoW rising (+165%)
If trend continues → EM underweight, USD longs.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.85, regime_score=+0.77
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.4325 | +1.7191 | +2.6048 | 93th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.8188 | +0.9228 | +2.4385 | 91th | 7 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.5143 | +0.8482 | +0.2305 | 89th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 5.0726 | +0.1620 | +1.3518 | 100th | 7 | |
| recession | 4.6385 | +1.3385 | +1.3900 | 86th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.5209 | +0.3382 | -0.2376 | 69th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.9460 | +0.6351 | +0.5834 | 79th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.6626 | +0.1276 | -0.3121 | 55th | 8 | |
| inflation | 3.5784 | +0.1335 | +1.9176 | 69th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.2905 | -0.6815 | +0.7232 | 65th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-01
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.4152 | +1.7018 (+14.5%) | +2.5875 (+23.9%) |
| energy_insecurity | 8.8075 | +0.9115 (+11.5%) | +2.4272 (+38.0%) |
| recession | 4.6325 | +1.3325 (+40.4%) | +1.3841 (+42.6%) |
| inflation | 3.5738 | +0.1289 (+3.7%) | +1.9130 (+115.2%) |
| crypto_adoption | 5.0660 | +0.1555 (+3.2%) | +1.3453 (+36.2%) |
| stagflation | 1.7060 | +0.3734 (+28.0%) | +0.7874 (+85.7%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.9409 | +0.6300 (+19.0%) | +0.5784 (+17.2%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.5072 | +0.8411 (+18.0%) | +0.2234 (+4.2%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.1054 | -0.1666 (-13.1%) | +0.7538 (+214.4%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.8816 | -0.0709 (-7.4%) | +0.5482 (+164.5%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
133 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-01 16:00 UTC