Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-30 (built 10:15 UTC), 212 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=+0.37
- euphoria z=+0.84
- fear z=-0.10
- frustration z=-0.31
- greed z=+0.61
- hope z=+0.27
- optimism z=-0.19
- panic z=+0.74
- skepticism z=+1.14
- uncertainty z=+0.22
2. energy_insecurity
- confidence z=-1.00
- euphoria z=+0.90
- fear z=+0.34
- frustration z=-0.94
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+0.72
- optimism z=+0.31
- panic z=+0.91
- skepticism z=+0.13
- uncertainty z=-0.11
3. recession euphoria ↓
- confidence z=+0.86
- euphoria z=-1.69
- fear z=-0.57
- frustration z=+0.21
- greed z=-0.65
- hope z=+1.30
- optimism z=+0.43
- panic z=+0.23
- skepticism z=-0.01
- uncertainty z=+0.58
4. inflation
- confidence z=+0.51
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-0.83
- frustration z=-0.16
- greed z=-0.87
- hope z=+1.28
- optimism z=+1.25
- panic z=+0.85
- skepticism z=+0.05
- uncertainty z=-0.45
5. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓
- confidence z=-1.76
- euphoria z=+1.33
- fear z=+0.35
- frustration z=-0.35
- greed z=-0.92
- hope z=-0.52
- optimism z=+0.67
- panic z=+0.74
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=-0.70
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
earnings_miss: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_hike: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_cut: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
recession ↓ -2.96σ DoD
-2.96σ vs own history — -57% change, now at 45th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.57
- euphoria z=-2.83
- fear z=-0.76
- frustration z=+0.18
- greed z=-0.73
- hope z=+0.01
- optimism z=-0.34
- panic z=-0.80
- skepticism z=-0.55
- uncertainty z=-0.06
sector_rotation ↓ -2.92σ DoD
-2.92σ vs own history — -50% change, now at 41th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.13
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.21
- frustration z=-0.90
- greed z=-0.29
- hope z=+0.16
- optimism z=-0.39
- panic z=-1.16
- skepticism z=-1.22
- uncertainty z=+0.13
banking_crisis ↓ -2.36σ DoD
-2.36σ vs own history — -43% change, now at 59th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.87
- frustration z=+0.36
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.64
- optimism z=+0.46
- panic z=-0.95
- skepticism z=+0.49
- uncertainty z=-0.44
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
earnings_miss: +0.66σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.66σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_cut: +0.65σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.65σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_hike: +0.63σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.63σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -2.41σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.41σ vs own history — -62% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.77
- frustration z=-0.20
- greed z=+2.41
- hope z=-1.89
- optimism z=+0.72
- panic z=+0.37
- skepticism z=+2.26
- uncertainty z=+2.00
commodities_supercycle: -2.20σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.20σ vs own history — -58% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.86
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.55
- frustration z=-1.99
- greed z=-0.93
- hope z=-2.09
- optimism z=+0.30
- panic z=+0.33
- skepticism z=-0.83
- uncertainty z=+0.31
energy_insecurity: -2.12σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.12σ vs own history — -56% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.46
- fear z=+0.52
- frustration z=-1.70
- greed z=-0.67
- hope z=-0.63
- optimism z=-0.27
- panic z=+0.78
- skepticism z=+0.46
- uncertainty z=+0.59
Narratives to Look Out For
fed_pivotp83
Attention is at the 83th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.18
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.33
- frustration z=+0.85
- greed z=-1.73
- hope z=+0.01
- optimism z=-1.40
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=-0.92
- uncertainty z=+0.86
interest_rate_insecurityp62
Attention is at the 62th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.38
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-1.86
- frustration z=+0.03
- greed z=-0.11
- hope z=+1.49
- optimism z=-0.13
- panic z=+0.86
- skepticism z=-0.15
- uncertainty z=-0.20
banking_crisisp59
Attention is at the 59th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-2.16
- fear z=-0.31
- frustration z=-0.71
- greed z=-0.85
- hope z=-2.08
- optimism z=-1.39
- panic z=-0.69
- skepticism z=+1.05
- uncertainty z=+0.33
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: +0.67 — Skepticism z-score: -0.55.
Fear most concentrated in energy_transition
Average fear score for energy_transition: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.66), energy_insecurity (0.69), recession (0.64).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.006 vs 7-day baseline 0.009.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p38 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch earnings_miss: WoW rising (+0%)
If trend continues → reduce equity beta, raise cash.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.67, regime_score=+2.09
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 6.9477 | -3.5450 | -8.6599 | 38th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 4.4558 | -2.7681 | -5.5923 | 40th | 8 | |
| inflation | 2.6606 | -3.0469 | -0.9201 | 48th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.5465 | -2.1111 | -3.5244 | 35th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.3796 | -3.0930 | -1.3485 | 45th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.3107 | -1.7631 | -2.0380 | 24th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.2538 | -2.2614 | -1.8183 | 41th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 2.2210 | -1.6638 | -2.6146 | 34th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.0731 | -1.8774 | -2.4811 | 38th | 3 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9972 | -1.1848 | +0.1810 | 62th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-30
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| fed_pivot | 1.0705 | -0.2975 (-21.7%) | +0.3807 (+55.2%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 0.6954 | -0.0456 (-6.2%) | -0.0872 (-11.1%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0500 | -0.0500 (-50.0%) | -0.1076 (-68.3%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.0756 | -0.2265 (-75.0%) | -0.2806 (-78.8%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.0908 | -0.3459 (-79.2%) | -0.2044 (-69.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
124 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-30 10:00 UTC