Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-01 (built 22:15 UTC), 316 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=-1.05
- euphoria z=+0.16
- fear z=-0.86
- frustration z=-0.21
- greed z=-0.13
- hope z=+0.98
- optimism z=+0.22
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=-0.59
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ greed ↓
- confidence z=-2.67
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-2.01
- frustration z=-1.15
- greed z=-2.29
- hope z=+0.54
- optimism z=-0.66
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=+0.29
- uncertainty z=-1.04
3. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=+0.47
- euphoria z=+1.48
- fear z=+0.24
- frustration z=-1.04
- greed z=+0.69
- hope z=-0.29
- optimism z=-0.00
- panic z=+0.66
- skepticism z=+0.13
- uncertainty z=-0.85
4. crypto_adoption panic ↑
- confidence z=-0.08
- euphoria z=-0.48
- fear z=-0.05
- frustration z=-0.61
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.54
- optimism z=-1.03
- panic z=+1.71
- skepticism z=-0.61
- uncertainty z=-1.27
5. AI_boom uncertainty ↓ skepticism ↑
- confidence z=-0.11
- euphoria z=-1.04
- fear z=-0.89
- frustration z=-0.85
- greed z=+0.47
- hope z=-0.56
- optimism z=-0.45
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+1.50
- uncertainty z=-2.37
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism ↑ +5.10σ DoD
+5.10σ vs own history — +6739063275% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations ↑ +5.10σ DoD
+5.10σ vs own history — +5391250620% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
housing_bubble ↑ +0.59σ DoD
+0.59σ vs own history — +61% change, now at 70th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.84
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.96
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+1.20
↓ Top Decreases
interest_rate_insecurity ↓ -1.06σ DoD
-1.06σ vs own history — -41% change, now at 48th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.70
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.11
- frustration z=+1.85
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.46
- optimism z=-0.41
- panic z=-0.96
- skepticism z=-1.41
- uncertainty z=+0.85
dollar_strength ↓ -1.04σ DoD
-1.04σ vs own history — -33% change, now at 70th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.60
- fear z=-0.42
- frustration z=+0.86
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-3.93
- skepticism z=+0.40
- uncertainty z=+0.36
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.65σ DoD
-0.65σ vs own history — -6% change, now at 67th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.90
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.39
- frustration z=+0.42
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.08
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=-0.37
- skepticism z=-2.75
- uncertainty z=+1.57
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism: +4.48σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.48σ vs own history — +6739063275% change over the last 3 days.
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +4.48σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.48σ vs own history — +5391250620% change over the last 3 days.
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
dollar_strength: +0.45σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.45σ vs own history — +102% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.02
- frustration z=-0.81
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-1.96
- skepticism z=-1.51
- uncertainty z=+0.11
↓ Top Decreases
banking_crisis: -1.50σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.50σ vs own history — -30% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.51
- fear z=-0.14
- frustration z=-0.20
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.46
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.57
- skepticism z=+0.05
- uncertainty z=-1.34
demographic_shift: -1.20σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.20σ vs own history — -73% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.29
- fear z=-2.39
- frustration z=-2.33
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.29
- optimism z=+1.18
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.22
- uncertainty z=-1.36
defense_rearmament: -1.18σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.18σ vs own history — -20% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.50
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.71
- frustration z=-2.57
- greed z=+0.98
- hope z=-2.84
- optimism z=-1.52
- panic z=-0.58
- skepticism z=-0.46
- uncertainty z=+3.06
Narratives to Look Out For
trade_protectionismp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relationsp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
crypto_adoptionp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.08
- euphoria z=-0.48
- fear z=-0.05
- frustration z=-0.61
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.54
- optimism z=-1.03
- panic z=+1.71
- skepticism z=-0.61
- uncertainty z=-1.27
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.47 — Skepticism z-score: -0.20.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.75.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.65), energy_insecurity (0.67), technology_paradigm_shift (0.48).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.005 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p71 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch trade_protectionism: WoW rising (+6739063275%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.47, regime_score=+0.14
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.3987 | -0.2676 | +0.6244 | 71th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.5356 | -0.3604 | +1.1553 | 64th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.7929 | +0.1269 | -0.4908 | 68th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.5591 | -0.3514 | +0.8384 | 96th | 7 | |
| AI_boom | 4.1797 | -0.0030 | -0.5788 | 61th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.6425 | +0.3316 | +0.2799 | 75th | 9 | |
| recession | 3.5882 | +0.3059 | +0.3598 | 68th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.0042 | -0.5309 | -0.9706 | 36th | 8 | |
| inflation | 2.6908 | -0.7541 | +1.0299 | 46th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.7454 | -1.2265 | +0.1782 | 48th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-01
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| energy_insecurity | 7.5285 | -0.3675 (-4.7%) | +1.1482 (+18.0%) |
| crypto_adoption | 4.5549 | -0.3557 (-7.2%) | +0.8341 (+22.4%) |
| recession | 3.5849 | +0.3026 (+9.2%) | +0.3564 (+11.0%) |
| inflation | 2.6883 | -0.7566 (-22.0%) | +1.0274 (+61.9%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.6391 | +0.3282 (+9.9%) | +0.2765 (+8.2%) |
| energy_transition | 0.8759 | +0.4116 (+88.6%) | +0.1631 (+22.9%) |
| geopolitical_risk | 11.3881 | -0.2783 (-2.4%) | +0.6137 (+5.7%) |
| stagflation | 1.2466 | -0.0860 (-6.5%) | +0.3279 (+35.7%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.8077 | -0.4643 (-36.5%) | +0.4562 (+129.8%) |
| trade_protectionism | 0.0673 | +0.0673 (+6732763808.4%) | +0.0673 (+6732763808.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
134 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-01 22:00 UTC