📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-01 04:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-01 (built 04:15 UTC), 188 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   fear    confidence 
  •  confidence z=-1.79
  •  euphoria z=+0.18
  •  fear z=-2.41
  •  frustration z=+0.26
  •  greed z=-0.72
  •  hope z=+0.42
  •  optimism z=+1.09
  •  panic z=+0.07
  •  skepticism z=+0.17
  •  uncertainty z=-0.66
2. energy_insecurity   fear    confidence 
  •  confidence z=-2.69
  •  euphoria z=+1.02
  •  fear z=-3.08
  •  frustration z=-1.29
  •  greed z=-2.29
  •  hope z=-0.63
  •  optimism z=-0.40
  •  panic z=+0.04
  •  skepticism z=+0.62
  •  uncertainty z=-1.15
3. technology_paradigm_shift   greed    fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.42
  •  euphoria z=+0.95
  •  fear z=+1.67
  •  frustration z=-1.22
  •  greed z=-1.78
  •  hope z=+0.02
  •  optimism z=+0.06
  •  panic z=+0.66
  •  skepticism z=-0.31
  •  uncertainty z=-0.18
4. crypto_adoption   uncertainty 
  •  confidence z=+0.84
  •  euphoria z=+0.58
  •  fear z=-1.46
  •  frustration z=-0.03
  •  greed z=-0.57
  •  hope z=-1.25
  •  optimism z=-0.58
  •  panic z=+1.28
  •  skepticism z=-0.56
  •  uncertainty z=-2.10
5. AI_boom   uncertainty 
  •  confidence z=+0.53
  •  euphoria z=+0.19
  •  fear z=-1.41
  •  frustration z=+0.19
  •  greed z=-0.82
  •  hope z=+0.17
  •  optimism z=+0.28
  •  panic z=+0.61
  •  skepticism z=+1.46
  •  uncertainty z=-1.58

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

No increases

↓ Top Decreases

defense_rearmament -3.21σ DoD
-3.21σ vs own history — -56% change, now at 22th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.47
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.04
  •  frustration z=+0.42
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.78
  •  optimism z=-0.63
  •  panic z=-0.88
  •  skepticism z=-0.95
  •  uncertainty z=+0.24
energy_insecurity -2.75σ DoD
-2.75σ vs own history — -55% change, now at 32th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-2.19
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.27
  •  frustration z=-0.44
  •  greed z=-1.84
  •  hope z=-1.26
  •  optimism z=-1.16
  •  panic z=-1.43
  •  skepticism z=+0.45
  •  uncertainty z=+1.17
crypto_adoption -2.40σ DoD
-2.40σ vs own history — -51% change, now at 38th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.36
  •  euphoria z=-0.36
  •  fear z=+0.02
  •  frustration z=-0.01
  •  greed z=+0.29
  •  hope z=+0.37
  •  optimism z=+0.28
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.24
  •  uncertainty z=-0.40

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

No increases

↓ Top Decreases

defense_rearmament: -2.16σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.16σ vs own history — -63% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.92
  •  euphoria z=+0.51
  •  fear z=+0.36
  •  frustration z=-2.57
  •  greed z=+1.97
  •  hope z=-3.47
  •  optimism z=-2.53
  •  panic z=-1.10
  •  skepticism z=+1.35
  •  uncertainty z=+1.79
banking_crisis: -1.92σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.92σ vs own history — -56% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.45
  •  fear z=-1.81
  •  frustration z=-0.65
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-2.13
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=-1.24
  •  skepticism z=+0.48
  •  uncertainty z=-1.98
commodities_supercycle: -1.67σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.67σ vs own history — -64% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-2.63
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.73
  •  frustration z=-0.52
  •  greed z=-2.84
  •  hope z=-3.92
  •  optimism z=-4.55
  •  panic z=-0.66
  •  skepticism z=-0.93
  •  uncertainty z=-0.80

Narratives to Look Out For

fed_pivotp52

Attention is at the 52th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.07
  •  euphoria z=-1.24
  •  fear z=-0.09
  •  frustration z=+0.83
  •  greed z=-0.21
  •  hope z=-0.26
  •  optimism z=+1.00
  •  panic z=+0.13
  •  skepticism z=-1.61
  •  uncertainty z=+1.15
dollar_strengthp48

Attention is at the 48th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.80
  •  fear z=-1.24
  •  frustration z=-1.07
  •  greed z=+0.58
  •  hope z=+0.69
  •  optimism z=+0.70
  •  panic z=+2.19
  •  skepticism z=+0.30
  •  uncertainty z=+0.46
crypto_adoptionp38

Attention is at the 38th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.84
  •  euphoria z=+0.58
  •  fear z=-1.46
  •  frustration z=-0.03
  •  greed z=-0.57
  •  hope z=-1.25
  •  optimism z=-0.58
  •  panic z=+1.28
  •  skepticism z=-0.56
  •  uncertainty z=-2.10

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: -3.28 — Skepticism z-score: -0.87.
Fear most concentrated in crypto_adoption
Average fear score for crypto_adoption: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.57), energy_insecurity (0.60), technology_paradigm_shift (0.40).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.005 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p31 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-3.28, regime_score=-0.91

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk5.8486-5.8648-4.979131th10
energy_insecurity3.5649-4.3311-2.815432th6
technology_paradigm_shift2.8265-1.8395-2.457221th9
crypto_adoption2.3848-2.5258-1.336038th6
AI_boom2.0461-2.1365-2.712434th8
recession1.7869-1.5131-1.461634th9
sector_rotation1.7017-1.6092-1.660829th8
inflation1.5052-1.9398-0.155734th7
commodities_supercycle1.4374-2.0976-2.537332th5
interest_rate_insecurity1.2348-1.7371-0.332435th10

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-01

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
fed_pivot0.5900-0.6819 (-53.6%)+0.2385 (+67.8%)
demographic_shift0.0253-0.1127 (-81.7%)-0.2381 (-90.4%)
dollar_strength0.3725-0.5800 (-60.9%)+0.0392 (+11.8%)
housing_bubble0.0500-0.0967 (-65.9%)-0.3079 (-86.0%)
deglobalisation0.1338-0.1638 (-55.0%)-0.4633 (-77.6%)
energy_transition0.1996-0.2648 (-57.0%)-0.5132 (-72.0%)
ex_usa_trade0.3119-0.3460 (-52.6%)-0.5734 (-64.8%)
stagflation0.3893-0.9433 (-70.8%)-0.5293 (-57.6%)
banking_crisis0.7303-0.5526 (-43.1%)-0.9455 (-56.4%)
inflation1.5052-1.9398 (-56.3%)-0.1557 (-9.4%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

131 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-01 04:00 UTC