Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-09 (built 16:15 UTC), 266 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.39
- euphoria z=+0.29
- fear z=-1.70
- frustration z=+0.35
- greed z=+0.28
- hope z=+0.36
- optimism z=-0.57
- panic z=+0.10
- skepticism z=-0.57
- uncertainty z=-1.14
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.36
- euphoria z=+0.73
- fear z=-1.73
- frustration z=-0.61
- greed z=-0.80
- hope z=+0.18
- optimism z=-0.88
- panic z=-0.34
- skepticism z=-1.01
- uncertainty z=-1.15
3. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.87
- euphoria z=-0.44
- fear z=-2.06
- frustration z=-1.46
- greed z=-0.39
- hope z=+0.72
- optimism z=-1.27
- panic z=-1.13
- skepticism z=-0.67
- uncertainty z=-1.24
4. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.50
- euphoria z=+1.55
- fear z=-0.65
- frustration z=-0.10
- greed z=+0.31
- hope z=+0.49
- optimism z=+0.20
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.72
- uncertainty z=-0.19
5. AI_boom euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-0.26
- euphoria z=+2.12
- fear z=-0.84
- frustration z=-0.47
- greed z=+0.21
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=-1.40
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.44
- uncertainty z=+0.29
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear ↑ +4.68σ DoD
+4.68σ vs own history — +323% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.41
- frustration z=+1.41
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=-1.41
eu_us_relations ↑ +1.19σ DoD
+1.19σ vs own history — +21% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.53
- fear z=+0.59
- frustration z=+0.57
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.09
- optimism z=+0.16
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.83
- uncertainty z=+0.67
fed_pivot ↑ +0.02σ DoD
+0.02σ vs own history — +5% change, now at 62th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.41
- frustration z=+0.11
- greed z=-0.19
- hope z=+0.16
- optimism z=-0.09
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.38
- uncertainty z=-0.72
↓ Top Decreases
banking_crisis ↓ -1.43σ DoD
-1.43σ vs own history — -14% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.09
- fear z=-0.65
- frustration z=-0.19
- greed z=-0.40
- hope z=+0.27
- optimism z=+0.02
- panic z=-0.06
- skepticism z=+0.04
- uncertainty z=-0.07
sector_rotation ↓ -1.16σ DoD
-1.16σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 19th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.04
- euphoria z=+0.01
- fear z=-0.37
- frustration z=+0.17
- greed z=-0.08
- hope z=+0.22
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=-0.08
- skepticism z=+0.12
- uncertainty z=+0.03
defense_rearmament ↓ -1.12σ DoD
-1.12σ vs own history — -9% change, now at 19th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.19
- frustration z=+0.49
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.06
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=-0.47
- skepticism z=+1.09
- uncertainty z=+0.45
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear: +4.35σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.35σ vs own history — +23747482524% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
demographic_shift: +1.15σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.15σ vs own history — +200% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+2.73
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.42
- optimism z=+2.20
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.06
- uncertainty z=-0.37
eu_us_relations: +1.06σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.06σ vs own history — +153% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.48
- frustration z=+2.70
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+2.15
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.93
- uncertainty z=+0.07
↓ Top Decreases
dollar_strength: -1.08σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.08σ vs own history — -17% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.29
- fear z=-0.68
- frustration z=+3.74
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.24
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.60
- uncertainty z=-1.91
ex_usa_trade: -1.05σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.05σ vs own history — -49% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.42
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.62
- frustration z=-0.36
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.30
- optimism z=-0.56
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.89
- uncertainty z=-0.22
sector_rotation: -0.84σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.84σ vs own history — -16% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.18
- euphoria z=+0.01
- fear z=+0.65
- frustration z=+0.48
- greed z=-1.16
- hope z=+0.44
- optimism z=+0.08
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.54
- uncertainty z=+1.01
Narratives to Look Out For
trade_protectionismp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.27
- fear z=+1.62
- frustration z=-0.27
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.24
- optimism z=+0.33
- panic z=+0.71
- skepticism z=+1.48
- uncertainty z=-0.18
eu_us_relationsp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.48
- fear z=+1.49
- frustration z=+1.35
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.11
- optimism z=+0.51
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.25
- uncertainty z=+0.59
luddite_fearp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.71
- frustration z=+0.71
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=-0.71
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.29 — Skepticism z-score: -0.01.
Fear most concentrated in deglobalisation
Average fear score for deglobalisation: 0.85.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.55), energy_insecurity (0.58), commodities_supercycle (0.58).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p89 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch luddite_fear: WoW rising (+23747482524%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.29, regime_score=-1.15
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 12.3448 | -0.8387 | +0.7707 | 48th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.5485 | -0.5329 | +0.7937 | 58th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.6342 | -0.1714 | +0.6119 | 58th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.4178 | +0.0801 | -0.4340 | 67th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.8690 | +0.0723 | -0.3292 | 62th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 3.7514 | +0.1222 | -0.8038 | 42th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.4961 | -0.2178 | +0.7514 | 44th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8406 | -0.3197 | -0.5483 | 19th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.3399 | -0.3085 | -0.7924 | 15th | 9 | |
| trade_protectionism | 1.6714 | +0.0558 | +0.8855 | 78th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-09
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.7756 | +0.3353 (+2.2%) | +3.5367 (+28.9%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.7401 | +2.5761 (+61.9%) | +1.5232 (+29.2%) |
| energy_insecurity | 11.0621 | +0.2143 (+2.0%) | +2.8518 (+34.7%) |
| crypto_adoption | 5.9091 | +1.5359 (+35.1%) | +1.8195 (+44.5%) |
| inflation | 4.5246 | +0.7350 (+19.4%) | +2.2637 (+100.1%) |
| AI_boom | 5.8796 | +2.5771 (+78.0%) | +0.8974 (+18.0%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 6.3351 | +1.0302 (+19.4%) | +1.6552 (+35.4%) |
| eu_us_relations | 2.2579 | +1.2101 (+115.5%) | +1.3779 (+156.6%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.2594 | +0.5733 (+34.0%) | +1.2786 (+130.4%) |
| stagflation | 1.9583 | +0.4879 (+33.2%) | +1.2267 (+167.7%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
165 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-09 16:00 UTC