Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-14 (built 23:15 UTC), 221 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by banking_crisis, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- AI_boom down: -0.13 DoD (-65%), now at 5th percentile; breadth 1 subs.
- geopolitical_risk down: -0.07 DoD (-19%), now at 5th percentile; breadth 2 subs.
- recession down: -0.05 DoD (-26%), now at 5th percentile; breadth 2 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: -1.81 WoW (-87%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- recession: -0.59 WoW (-80%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- AI_boom: -0.56 WoW (-89%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) banking_crisis (p5) 2) geopolitical_risk (p5) 3) recession (p5) 4) deglobalisation (p5) 5) interest_rate_hike (p5)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear elevated (z=+3.52), skepticism elevated (z=+3.47).
- Fear is most concentrated in interest_rate_hike (avg fear 0.80).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): banking_crisis (0.80), geopolitical_risk (0.72), recession (0.60).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.032 vs 7d baseline 0.058).
Watchlist
- Watch banking_crisis: if it remains above p5 for 3 days and fear stays elevated → financials underweight, flight to quality.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+3.52, regime_score=-3.78
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | 0.3778 | -0.0118 | -0.1924 | 5th | 2 | |
| geopolitical_risk | 0.2797 | -0.0653 | -1.8143 | 5th | 2 | |
| recession | 0.1483 | -0.0512 | -0.5912 | 5th | 2 | |
| deglobalisation | 0.0991 | -0.0252 | -0.3794 | 5th | 2 | |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0788 | -0.0197 | -0.2280 | 5th | 2 | |
| AI_boom | 0.0700 | -0.1274 | -0.5595 | 5th | 1 | |
| earnings_miss | 0.0626 | -0.0436 | -0.5531 | 5th | 2 | |
| crypto_adoption | 0.0364 | -0.0081 | -0.3140 | 5th | 1 | |
| dollar_strength | 0.0333 | -0.0067 | -0.1182 | 5th | 1 | |
| stagflation | 0.0312 | -0.0045 | -0.1026 | 5th | 1 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 7,143 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 71 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 24 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 4,577 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 17,100 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 3,824 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
3,824 total posts | 2,384 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 641 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 553 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 530 |
| r/investing | 501 |
| r/economics | 468 |
| r/stocks | 432 |
| r/StockMarket | 307 |
| r/options | 256 |
| r/finance | 88 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 48 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-14
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| housing_bubble | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | -0.0250 (-100.0%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.0125 | -0.0042 (-25.0%) | -0.0345 (-73.4%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0258 | -0.0090 (-25.9%) | -0.0611 (-70.3%) |
| stagflation | 0.0312 | -0.0045 (-12.5%) | -0.1026 (-76.6%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | -0.1197 (-100.0%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.0333 | -0.0067 (-16.7%) | -0.1182 (-78.0%) |
| banking_crisis | 0.3778 | -0.0118 (-3.0%) | -0.1924 (-33.7%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | -0.2197 (-100.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0788 | -0.0197 (-20.0%) | -0.2280 (-74.3%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
71 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-14 11:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 24 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 7143 |
| narrative_scores | 4577 |
| fetch_runs | 71 |
| post_rankings | 17100 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 24 |