Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-24 (built 17:15 UTC), 271 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by banking_crisis, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. banking_crisis ⚠️ hope down ⚠️ optimism down
- confidence z=+0.48
- euphoria z=-0.82
- fear z=+0.84
- frustration z=+1.28
- greed z=+0.88
- hope z=-4.10
- optimism z=-1.89
- panic z=+0.23
- skepticism z=+1.43
- uncertainty z=+0.03
2. crypto_adoption
- confidence z=+0.90
- euphoria z=-0.38
- fear z=-0.91
- frustration z=+1.03
- greed z=+0.11
- hope z=-1.03
- optimism z=-0.25
- panic z=-1.03
- skepticism z=-1.21
- uncertainty z=-0.32
3. dollar_strength ⚠️ skepticism up ⚠️ uncertainty up
- confidence z=-1.48
- fear z=+0.78
- frustration z=-0.64
- greed z=+0.41
- hope z=-1.12
- optimism z=+0.96
- panic z=+1.46
- skepticism z=+1.94
- uncertainty z=+1.79
4. commodities_supercycle ⚠️ frustration up
- confidence z=-0.50
- euphoria z=+0.75
- fear z=+0.15
- frustration z=+1.59
- greed z=+0.11
- hope z=+0.77
- optimism z=+1.03
- panic z=+0.31
- skepticism z=+1.09
- uncertainty z=-1.13
5. geopolitical_risk ⚠️ skepticism up ⚠️ frustration up
- confidence z=+0.49
- euphoria z=-0.60
- fear z=+1.08
- frustration z=+1.76
- greed z=+0.96
- hope z=+1.46
- optimism z=+0.56
- panic z=+0.85
- skepticism z=+1.86
- uncertainty z=+0.74
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk down: -27%
-4.27 DoD change — now at 78th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.07
- euphoria z=-1.28
- fear z=-0.14
- frustration z=+0.34
- greed z=+0.40
- hope z=+0.48
- optimism z=-0.05
- panic z=+0.10
- skepticism z=+0.87
- uncertainty z=-0.07
energy_insecurity down: -32%
-3.19 DoD change — now at 71th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.30
- euphoria z=-0.88
- fear z=-0.49
- frustration z=+0.24
- greed z=-1.37
- hope z=+0.28
- optimism z=+0.05
- panic z=-0.16
- skepticism z=+1.02
- uncertainty z=+1.01
AI_boom down: -48%
-2.30 DoD change — now at 33th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.09
- euphoria z=-1.09
- fear z=+1.10
- frustration z=+0.37
- greed z=-0.15
- hope z=+0.12
- optimism z=-0.12
- panic z=+2.17
- skepticism z=-1.17
- uncertainty z=+0.68
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: +75% WoW — trend decelerating
+4.86 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.03
- euphoria z=-0.12
- fear z=+0.34
- frustration z=+1.91
- greed z=+2.69
- hope z=+0.89
- optimism z=+0.83
- panic z=+2.39
- skepticism z=+1.84
- uncertainty z=+0.51
energy_insecurity: +68% WoW — trend decelerating
+2.78 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+2.22
- euphoria z=-0.52
- fear z=-1.06
- frustration z=+0.07
- greed z=-0.91
- hope z=+0.08
- optimism z=+2.94
- panic z=+1.93
- skepticism z=-0.54
- uncertainty z=-0.77
commodities_supercycle: +65% WoW — trend decelerating
+1.69 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.42
- euphoria z=+0.71
- fear z=-0.74
- frustration z=+1.29
- greed z=+0.05
- hope z=-0.16
- optimism z=+2.06
- panic z=+1.22
- skepticism z=+0.61
- uncertainty z=-1.52
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear elevated, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: +1.45 — Skepticism z-score: +0.84.
Fear most concentrated in housing_bubble
Average fear score for housing_bubble: 0.90.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
banking_crisis (0.67), crypto_adoption (0.56).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.014 vs 7-day baseline 0.043.
Watchlist
Watch banking_crisis: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: financials underweight, flight to quality.
Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+75%)
If trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+1.45, regime_score=+2.03
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.3621 | -4.2721 | +4.8590 | 78th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.8568 | -3.1912 | +2.7839 | 71th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.2978 | -1.7731 | +1.6937 | 79th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.6248 | -0.9294 | +0.4017 | 85th | 6 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.2015 | -1.1472 | -0.7609 | 36th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.7804 | -1.2917 | +1.2257 | 69th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.5803 | -1.1727 | +0.6245 | 44th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 2.5368 | -2.2988 | -0.5543 | 33th | 9 | |
| inflation | 2.2799 | -1.3009 | -0.5206 | 41th | 9 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.0472 | +0.3314 | +0.5343 | 100th | 10 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 11,337 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 101 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 45 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 7,688 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 24,100 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,207 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,207 total posts | 3,747 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 821 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 751 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 704 |
| r/investing | 666 |
| r/economics | 621 |
| r/stocks | 584 |
| r/StockMarket | 415 |
| r/options | 353 |
| r/finance | 108 |
| r/TrueReddit | 76 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 69 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 39 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-24
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.3621 | -4.2721 (-27.3%) | +4.8590 (+74.7%) |
| banking_crisis | 2.0472 | +0.3314 (+19.3%) | +0.5343 (+35.3%) |
| energy_insecurity | 6.8568 | -3.1912 (-31.8%) | +2.7839 (+68.4%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.2978 | -1.7731 (-29.2%) | +1.6937 (+65.0%) |
| sector_rotation | 2.7804 | -1.2917 (-31.7%) | +1.2257 (+78.8%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.5820 | -0.1078 (-15.6%) | +0.4278 (+277.3%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.9734 | -0.2887 (-22.9%) | +0.5003 (+105.8%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.4293 | -0.8009 (-35.9%) | +0.7580 (+112.9%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.2042 | +0.0465 (+29.5%) | +0.0358 (+21.3%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0353 | -0.0022 (-5.9%) | +0.0020 (+5.9%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
101 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-24 17:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 45 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 11337 |
| narrative_scores | 7688 |
| fetch_runs | 101 |
| post_rankings | 24100 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 45 |