📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-02 10:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-02 (built 10:15 UTC), 224 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk 
  •  confidence z=+1.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.16
  •  fear z=-1.17
  •  frustration z=-1.10
  •  greed z=-0.16
  •  hope z=+0.65
  •  optimism z=-0.95
  •  panic z=-0.02
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=-0.24
2. energy_insecurity   hope 
  •  confidence z=+0.91
  •  euphoria z=+1.02
  •  fear z=-1.48
  •  frustration z=+0.81
  •  greed z=-0.28
  •  hope z=+1.77
  •  optimism z=-0.37
  •  panic z=-0.29
  •  skepticism z=-1.05
  •  uncertainty z=-0.03
3. technology_paradigm_shift   fear    uncertainty 
  •  confidence z=+0.82
  •  euphoria z=-0.18
  •  fear z=-2.04
  •  frustration z=-0.57
  •  greed z=+1.30
  •  hope z=+0.98
  •  optimism z=+0.47
  •  panic z=+0.63
  •  skepticism z=+0.62
  •  uncertainty z=-1.95
4. AI_boom   fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.59
  •  euphoria z=-1.48
  •  fear z=-1.95
  •  frustration z=-0.11
  •  greed z=+0.33
  •  hope z=+0.89
  •  optimism z=+0.20
  •  panic z=+0.61
  •  skepticism z=+1.05
  •  uncertainty z=-1.23
5. crypto_adoption   hope    greed 
  •  confidence z=+1.49
  •  euphoria z=-0.98
  •  fear z=-0.20
  •  frustration z=+0.74
  •  greed z=+1.84
  •  hope z=+2.03
  •  optimism z=+0.09
  •  panic z=+0.40
  •  skepticism z=-0.21
  •  uncertainty z=-0.39

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

trade_protectionism +5.09σ DoD
+5.09σ vs own history — +1731% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.41
  •  uncertainty z=+1.41
eu_us_relations +5.07σ DoD
+5.07σ vs own history — +836% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.41
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
banking_crisis +3.08σ DoD
+3.08σ vs own history — +122% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.51
  •  fear z=-0.04
  •  frustration z=+0.48
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=-1.31
  •  skepticism z=-0.23
  •  uncertainty z=+0.24

↓ Top Decreases

No decreases

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

trade_protectionism: +4.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.47σ vs own history — +114443513065% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +4.45σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.45σ vs own history — +46791214882% change over the last 3 days.
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
dollar_strength: +1.61σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.61σ vs own history — +513% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.12
  •  frustration z=-1.52
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.84
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.31
  •  uncertainty z=-0.35

↓ Top Decreases

housing_bubble: -0.72σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.72σ vs own history — -14% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+1.48
  •  fear z=-1.18
  •  frustration z=-0.46
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-3.11
  •  optimism z=+0.06
  •  panic z=+1.79
  •  skepticism z=-0.84
  •  uncertainty z=-0.68
recession: -0.50σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.50σ vs own history — -4% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.31
  •  euphoria z=-0.31
  •  fear z=-0.71
  •  frustration z=-2.15
  •  greed z=+2.22
  •  hope z=-0.96
  •  optimism z=-0.68
  •  panic z=-0.28
  •  skepticism z=-1.01
  •  uncertainty z=-0.51
interest_rate_insecurity: -0.48σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.48σ vs own history — -15% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.14
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.60
  •  frustration z=-1.26
  •  greed z=+0.23
  •  hope z=+0.33
  •  optimism z=+0.40
  •  panic z=-0.73
  •  skepticism z=-1.87
  •  uncertainty z=+0.35

Narratives to Look Out For

geopolitical_riskp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+1.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.16
  •  fear z=-1.17
  •  frustration z=-1.10
  •  greed z=-0.16
  •  hope z=+0.65
  •  optimism z=-0.95
  •  panic z=-0.02
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=-0.24
energy_insecurityp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.91
  •  euphoria z=+1.02
  •  fear z=-1.48
  •  frustration z=+0.81
  •  greed z=-0.28
  •  hope z=+1.77
  •  optimism z=-0.37
  •  panic z=-0.29
  •  skepticism z=-1.05
  •  uncertainty z=-0.03
AI_boomp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.59
  •  euphoria z=-1.48
  •  fear z=-1.95
  •  frustration z=-0.11
  •  greed z=+0.33
  •  hope z=+0.89
  •  optimism z=+0.20
  •  panic z=+0.61
  •  skepticism z=+1.05
  •  uncertainty z=-1.23

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.10 — Skepticism z-score: -0.30.
Fear most concentrated in commodities_supercycle
Average fear score for commodities_supercycle: 0.65.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.61), energy_insecurity (0.62), technology_paradigm_shift (0.40).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.017 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
inflation (-3.2%), recession (-3.1%).

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch trade_protectionism: WoW rising (+114443513065%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-2.10, regime_score=-0.62

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk17.5679+6.9964+5.8446100th10
energy_insecurity11.3136+4.3249+3.3220100th8
AI_boom8.2810+4.4046+4.1204100th9
technology_paradigm_shift8.0164+3.5714+2.8657100th10
crypto_adoption7.1548+2.9265+2.6678100th6
commodities_supercycle5.5221+2.7360+0.252891th8
sector_rotation4.4920+1.1138+0.995192th9
recession3.6367+0.3089-0.165572th9
inflation2.8455+0.3500-0.683552th8
defense_rearmament2.5139+0.9265+1.0193100th6

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-02

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
geopolitical_risk17.5313+6.9598 (+65.8%)+5.8080 (+49.5%)
AI_boom8.2637+4.3874 (+113.2%)+4.1032 (+98.6%)
energy_insecurity11.2901+4.3014 (+61.5%)+3.2985 (+41.3%)
technology_paradigm_shift7.9998+3.5547 (+80.0%)+2.8490 (+55.3%)
crypto_adoption7.1399+2.9116 (+68.9%)+2.6529 (+59.1%)
commodities_supercycle5.5106+2.7245 (+97.8%)+0.2413 (+4.6%)
trade_protectionism1.1421+1.0796 (+1727.3%)+1.1421 (+114205295863.1%)
sector_rotation4.4827+1.1045 (+32.7%)+0.9858 (+28.2%)
defense_rearmament2.5087+0.9213 (+58.0%)+1.0141 (+67.9%)
banking_crisis2.4082+1.3207 (+121.4%)+0.6474 (+36.8%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

136 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-02 10:00 UTC