Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-12 (built 08:56 UTC), 185 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-0.90
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=-1.37
- frustration z=-0.83
- greed z=-0.48
- hope z=-0.42
- optimism z=-2.32
- panic z=+1.32
- skepticism z=-1.25
- uncertainty z=-1.83
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-2.09
- euphoria z=+0.97
- fear z=-1.55
- frustration z=-1.53
- greed z=-0.64
- hope z=-2.74
- optimism z=-2.24
- panic z=+1.23
- skepticism z=-1.42
- uncertainty z=-1.30
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.30
- euphoria z=+1.89
- fear z=-1.60
- frustration z=-0.17
- greed z=-0.19
- hope z=-0.22
- optimism z=-1.71
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=+1.17
- uncertainty z=-0.44
4. AI_boom fear ↓ euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-0.52
- euphoria z=+2.00
- fear z=-2.03
- frustration z=-0.95
- greed z=-0.44
- hope z=-0.44
- optimism z=-1.66
- panic z=+0.98
- skepticism z=-0.15
- uncertainty z=-0.37
5. inflation confidence ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-2.08
- euphoria z=+1.08
- fear z=-1.20
- frustration z=-1.16
- greed z=+1.10
- hope z=-1.25
- optimism z=-1.28
- panic z=+1.16
- skepticism z=-0.29
- uncertainty z=-1.65
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
housing_bubble ↑ +0.18σ DoD
+0.18σ vs own history — +40% change, now at 38th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -1.01σ DoD
-1.01σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.18
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.29
- frustration z=+0.31
- greed z=-0.06
- hope z=-0.12
- optimism z=-0.22
- panic z=+0.06
- skepticism z=-0.35
- uncertainty z=-0.26
crypto_adoption ↓ -0.91σ DoD
-0.91σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.29
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.03
- frustration z=+0.32
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.63
- optimism z=+0.10
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.15
- uncertainty z=-0.42
geopolitical_risk ↓ -0.90σ DoD
-0.90σ vs own history — -9% change, now at 10th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.02
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.10
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=-0.10
- hope z=+0.26
- optimism z=+0.02
- panic z=+0.19
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.12
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +1.19σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.19σ vs own history — +276% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.67
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.28
- frustration z=-0.48
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.11
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+3.17
- skepticism z=+0.21
- uncertainty z=-1.67
banking_crisis: +0.69σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.69σ vs own history — +54% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.93
- fear z=-0.90
- frustration z=+0.10
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.79
- optimism z=-1.25
- panic z=+3.95
- skepticism z=-0.81
- uncertainty z=-1.20
technology_paradigm_shift: +0.36σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.36σ vs own history — +46% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.25
- euphoria z=+1.57
- fear z=+0.05
- frustration z=-2.00
- greed z=+0.20
- hope z=+0.43
- optimism z=-1.72
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.33
- uncertainty z=+1.70
↓ Top Decreases
commodities_supercycle: -0.88σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.88σ vs own history — -16% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.45
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.66
- frustration z=-1.66
- greed z=+0.92
- hope z=+0.33
- optimism z=-2.28
- panic z=+1.26
- skepticism z=-0.84
- uncertainty z=-0.24
energy_insecurity: -0.74σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.74σ vs own history — -7% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.35
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.74
- frustration z=-0.62
- greed z=+0.36
- hope z=-2.88
- optimism z=-2.64
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=-0.04
- uncertainty z=-0.20
housing_bubble: -0.73σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.73σ vs own history — -68% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.19
- frustration z=-0.23
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.50
- uncertainty z=+0.09
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.30
- fear z=-1.50
- frustration z=-0.86
- greed z=-1.32
- hope z=+0.16
- optimism z=-1.12
- panic z=+1.27
- skepticism z=-0.61
- uncertainty z=-1.42
deglobalisationp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.01
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.63
- frustration z=-0.21
- greed z=+0.56
- hope z=+0.59
- optimism z=-0.06
- panic z=+0.75
- skepticism z=+1.14
- uncertainty z=-2.89
stagflationp85
Attention is at the 85th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.92
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.09
- frustration z=-1.18
- greed z=-0.28
- hope z=+1.42
- optimism z=+0.54
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-1.19
- uncertainty z=-1.73
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.01 — Skepticism z-score: +0.38.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.64), energy_insecurity (0.73), technology_paradigm_shift (0.30).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.013 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-3.4%), stagflation (+2.6%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p21 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+276%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.01, regime_score=-0.40
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 8.8180 | -0.8642 | -0.2021 | 10th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.0628 | -0.5646 | -0.4260 | 10th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.0174 | -0.3430 | +1.5774 | 14th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.6833 | -0.3406 | +1.4121 | 21th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.9480 | -0.3059 | +1.1785 | 26th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.3854 | -0.3301 | -0.6419 | 4th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.0202 | -0.3446 | -0.1684 | 4th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.4735 | -0.2962 | -0.4119 | 4th | 8 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.1265 | -0.0947 | +0.7441 | 74th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.0235 | -0.1492 | -0.6265 | 4th | 8 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| technology_paradigm_shift | 9.4008 | +4.3925 (+87.7%) | +6.4115 (+214.5%) |
| geopolitical_risk | 13.4732 | +5.1369 (+61.6%) | +5.4215 (+67.3%) |
| AI_boom | 8.5362 | +3.6661 (+75.3%) | +5.5740 (+188.2%) |
| inflation | 6.9769 | +2.9003 (+71.1%) | +4.1496 (+146.8%) |
| energy_insecurity | 9.6090 | +3.9991 (+71.3%) | +3.3522 (+53.6%) |
| stagflation | 4.3926 | +2.4203 (+122.7%) | +3.9691 (+937.3%) |
| banking_crisis | 4.5748 | +1.6636 (+57.1%) | +3.1518 (+221.5%) |
| defense_rearmament | 3.2499 | +1.5765 (+94.2%) | +2.0277 (+165.9%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.1930 | +2.0874 (+67.2%) | +1.2236 (+30.8%) |
| recession | 3.6649 | +1.5375 (+72.3%) | +1.2531 (+52.0%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stagflation | acceleration | 1.507 | 0.637 | 0.373 | 0.675 | 0.257 | 0.068 |
| banking_crisis | exhaustion | 1.363 | 0.634 | 0.415 | 0.601 | 0.219 | 0.180 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | exhaustion | 1.044 | 0.462 | 0.393 | 0.225 | 0.685 | 0.090 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 1.038 | 0.481 | 0.413 | 0.295 | 0.617 | 0.088 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 0.963 | 0.484 | 0.453 | 0.296 | 0.615 | 0.089 |
| commodities_supercycle | exhaustion | 0.927 | 0.409 | 0.391 | 0.184 | 0.742 | 0.074 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 0.913 | 0.440 | 0.432 | 0.443 | 0.513 | 0.044 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.900 | 0.488 | 0.492 | 0.217 | 0.697 | 0.087 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 0.894 | 0.417 | 0.417 | 0.203 | 0.716 | 0.081 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 0.871 | 0.390 | 0.398 | 0.177 | 0.752 | 0.071 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.795 | 0.375 | 0.421 | 0.247 | 0.729 | 0.025 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.784 | 0.415 | 0.480 | 0.218 | 0.738 | 0.044 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.769 | 0.447 | 0.531 | 0.413 | 0.587 | 0.000 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.736 | 0.345 | 0.419 | 0.358 | 0.642 | 0.000 |
| demographic_shift | exhaustion | 0.687 | 0.444 | 0.596 | 0.532 | 0.468 | 0.000 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.617 | 0.356 | 0.527 | 0.165 | 0.802 | 0.033 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.603 | 0.372 | 0.566 | 0.376 | 0.624 | 0.000 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.587 | 0.337 | 0.524 | 0.198 | 0.802 | 0.000 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.587 | 0.338 | 0.526 | 0.227 | 0.773 | 0.000 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.481 | 0.279 | 0.530 | 0.314 | 0.686 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
175 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-12 04:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.11
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -1.023 | -0.409 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.006 | -0.302 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.485 | -0.148 |
| Average Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.248 | -0.250 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.