Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-18 (built 17:15 UTC), 269 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by banking_crisis, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk up: +0.03 DoD (+15%), now at 10th percentile; breadth 1 subs.
- recession up: +0.01 DoD (+13%), now at 10th percentile; breadth 1 subs.
- deglobalisation up: +0.01 DoD (+12%), now at 10th percentile; breadth 1 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- AI_boom: -0.39 WoW (-100%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
- geopolitical_risk: -0.33 WoW (-61%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
- earnings_miss: -0.19 WoW (-86%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) banking_crisis (p10) 2) geopolitical_risk (p10) 3) recession (p10) 4) deglobalisation (p10) 5) interest_rate_hike (p10)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.58), skepticism elevated (z=+1.50).
- Fear is most concentrated in interest_rate_hike (avg fear 0.80).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): banking_crisis (0.80), geopolitical_risk (0.72), recession (0.60).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.069 vs 7d baseline 0.065).
Watchlist
- Watch banking_crisis: if it remains above p10 for 3 days and fear stays elevated → financials underweight, flight to quality.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.58, regime_score=-1.18
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | 0.3467 | +0.0055 | -0.0311 | 10th | 2 | |
| geopolitical_risk | 0.2061 | +0.0264 | -0.3270 | 10th | 1 | |
| recession | 0.0834 | +0.0096 | -0.1877 | 10th | 1 | |
| deglobalisation | 0.0529 | +0.0056 | -0.1489 | 10th | 1 | |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0375 | +0.0042 | -0.1154 | 10th | 1 | |
| crypto_adoption | 0.0333 | +0.0048 | -0.0333 | 10th | 1 | |
| earnings_miss | 0.0312 | +0.0035 | -0.1918 | 10th | 1 | |
| dollar_strength | 0.0308 | +0.0041 | -0.0264 | 10th | 1 | |
| stagflation | 0.0294 | +0.0031 | -0.0291 | 10th | 1 | |
| AI_boom | 0.0000 | +0.0000 | -0.3900 | 0th | 0 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 7,143 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 77 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 24 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 4,577 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 18,340 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,214 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,214 total posts | 2,384 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 686 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 605 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 574 |
| r/investing | 542 |
| r/economics | 511 |
| r/stocks | 472 |
| r/StockMarket | 344 |
| r/options | 286 |
| r/finance | 93 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 61 |
| r/TrueReddit | 20 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 20 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-18
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| inflation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| energy_transition | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| sector_rotation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.0308 | +0.0041 (+15.4%) | -0.0264 (-46.2%) |
| stagflation | 0.0294 | +0.0031 (+11.8%) | -0.0291 (-49.7%) |
| banking_crisis | 0.3467 | +0.0055 (+1.6%) | -0.0311 (-8.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
77 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-18 17:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 24 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 7143 |
| narrative_scores | 4577 |
| fetch_runs | 77 |
| post_rankings | 18340 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 24 |