Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-09 (built 10:15 UTC), 210 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.30
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=-1.66
- frustration z=+0.28
- greed z=+0.20
- hope z=+0.81
- optimism z=+0.21
- panic z=+0.12
- skepticism z=-0.49
- uncertainty z=-1.15
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.26
- euphoria z=+0.93
- fear z=-1.65
- frustration z=-0.69
- greed z=-0.67
- hope z=+0.39
- optimism z=-0.52
- panic z=-0.24
- skepticism z=-0.89
- uncertainty z=-1.12
3. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.74
- euphoria z=-0.27
- fear z=-2.00
- frustration z=-1.53
- greed z=-0.25
- hope z=+1.16
- optimism z=-0.10
- panic z=-1.06
- skepticism z=-0.47
- uncertainty z=-1.26
4. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=+0.70
- euphoria z=+1.37
- fear z=-0.91
- frustration z=-0.42
- greed z=+0.57
- hope z=+0.37
- optimism z=+0.42
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.80
- uncertainty z=+0.00
5. AI_boom euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.48
- euphoria z=+1.83
- fear z=-0.46
- frustration z=-0.61
- greed z=+0.34
- hope z=-0.08
- optimism z=-0.97
- panic z=+0.95
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=+0.51
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear ↑ +4.19σ DoD
+4.19σ vs own history — +168% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.41
- frustration z=-1.41
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=-1.41
eu_us_relations ↑ +0.44σ DoD
+0.44σ vs own history — +10% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.35
- fear z=+0.47
- frustration z=+0.30
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.06
- optimism z=+0.10
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.45
- uncertainty z=+0.27
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament ↓ -1.24σ DoD
-1.24σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.08
- frustration z=+0.47
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.04
- optimism z=-0.09
- panic z=-0.38
- skepticism z=+0.30
- uncertainty z=+0.23
banking_crisis ↓ -1.23σ DoD
-1.23σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.06
- fear z=-0.09
- frustration z=-0.16
- greed z=-0.26
- hope z=+0.17
- optimism z=+0.01
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=-0.00
- uncertainty z=-0.04
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.15σ DoD
-1.15σ vs own history — -7% change, now at 26th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.08
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.11
- frustration z=+0.28
- greed z=+0.14
- hope z=-0.12
- optimism z=-0.24
- panic z=-0.08
- skepticism z=+0.42
- uncertainty z=+0.04
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear: +4.19σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.19σ vs own history — +15065020161% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
demographic_shift: +0.98σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.98σ vs own history — +178% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+2.73
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.37
- optimism z=+2.23
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.26
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +0.82σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.82σ vs own history — +130% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.38
- frustration z=+2.54
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+2.10
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.62
- uncertainty z=-0.34
↓ Top Decreases
ex_usa_trade: -0.96σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.96σ vs own history — -43% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.75
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.62
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.30
- optimism z=-0.58
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.89
- uncertainty z=-0.56
AI_boom: -0.93σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.93σ vs own history — -23% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.03
- euphoria z=+2.54
- fear z=+0.55
- frustration z=+0.21
- greed z=-0.07
- hope z=+0.07
- optimism z=-0.98
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.82
- uncertainty z=+1.79
crypto_adoption: -0.90σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.90σ vs own history — -14% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.39
- euphoria z=+2.13
- fear z=+1.13
- frustration z=-1.93
- greed z=+0.09
- hope z=-2.39
- optimism z=-1.40
- panic z=-2.36
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=+0.37
Narratives to Look Out For
eu_us_relationsp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.38
- fear z=+1.41
- frustration z=+1.17
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.08
- optimism z=+0.46
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.94
- uncertainty z=+0.24
luddite_fearp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.71
- frustration z=-0.71
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=-0.71
energy_insecurityp92
Attention is at the 92th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-2.26
- euphoria z=+0.93
- fear z=-1.65
- frustration z=-0.69
- greed z=-0.67
- hope z=+0.39
- optimism z=-0.52
- panic z=-0.24
- skepticism z=-0.89
- uncertainty z=-1.12
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.19 — Skepticism z-score: -0.02.
Fear most concentrated in inflation
Average fear score for inflation: 0.75.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.51), energy_insecurity (0.54), commodities_supercycle (0.54).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.014 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p89 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch luddite_fear: WoW rising (+15065020161%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.19, regime_score=-1.04
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 12.2288 | -0.9547 | +0.6547 | 26th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.4330 | -0.6484 | +0.6782 | 19th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.4758 | -0.3298 | +0.4534 | 23th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.1617 | -0.1760 | -0.6901 | 19th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.6242 | -0.1725 | -0.5741 | 12th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 3.4968 | -0.1324 | -1.0585 | 15th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.3344 | -0.3795 | +0.5897 | 19th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8778 | -0.2825 | -0.5111 | 19th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.3239 | -0.3244 | -0.8084 | 15th | 9 | |
| trade_protectionism | 1.6063 | -0.0093 | +0.8204 | 78th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-09
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 20.3264 | +4.8861 (+31.6%) | +8.0875 (+66.1%) |
| energy_insecurity | 14.1025 | +3.2548 (+30.0%) | +5.8923 (+71.8%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 8.1966 | +4.0325 (+96.8%) | +2.9796 (+57.1%) |
| crypto_adoption | 6.9724 | +2.5991 (+59.4%) | +2.8827 (+70.5%) |
| AI_boom | 7.0198 | +3.7174 (+112.6%) | +2.0377 (+40.9%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 7.6078 | +2.3029 (+43.4%) | +2.9279 (+62.6%) |
| eu_us_relations | 3.2443 | +2.1964 (+209.6%) | +2.3643 (+268.7%) |
| trade_protectionism | 3.6677 | +1.4724 (+67.1%) | +2.1270 (+138.1%) |
| inflation | 4.5183 | +0.7286 (+19.2%) | +2.2573 (+99.8%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.2870 | +1.3279 (+44.9%) | +1.1057 (+34.8%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
164 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-09 10:00 UTC