Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-31 (built 10:15 UTC), 218 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.11
- euphoria z=+0.84
- fear z=-2.68
- frustration z=-0.98
- greed z=+0.17
- hope z=+0.21
- optimism z=+0.66
- panic z=+1.40
- skepticism z=+0.67
- uncertainty z=-1.76
2. energy_insecurity uncertainty ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.23
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-2.47
- frustration z=-0.63
- greed z=-0.39
- hope z=+0.56
- optimism z=+1.12
- panic z=+1.60
- skepticism z=+0.34
- uncertainty z=-2.60
3. AI_boom panic ↑ frustration ↓
- confidence z=+0.45
- euphoria z=+1.13
- fear z=+0.14
- frustration z=-1.96
- greed z=-0.91
- hope z=-0.71
- optimism z=-0.60
- panic z=+1.99
- skepticism z=+1.36
- uncertainty z=-0.95
4. technology_paradigm_shift greed ↓
- confidence z=+0.24
- euphoria z=+0.87
- fear z=-1.29
- frustration z=+0.10
- greed z=-1.70
- hope z=-0.09
- optimism z=-0.13
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=+0.35
- uncertainty z=-1.31
5. crypto_adoption hope ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.20
- euphoria z=+1.72
- fear z=-1.87
- frustration z=+0.35
- greed z=-0.97
- hope z=-2.01
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=+1.47
- skepticism z=-0.98
- uncertainty z=-1.34
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -2.91σ DoD
-2.91σ vs own history — -53% change, now at 39th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.83
- euphoria z=+0.51
- fear z=-0.17
- frustration z=-1.34
- greed z=-0.48
- hope z=-0.34
- optimism z=-0.40
- panic z=+1.64
- skepticism z=+2.19
- uncertainty z=-0.57
commodities_supercycle ↓ -2.26σ DoD
-2.26σ vs own history — -58% change, now at 33th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.31
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.84
- frustration z=-0.21
- greed z=+0.20
- hope z=+1.71
- optimism z=+1.46
- panic z=+0.99
- skepticism z=+0.60
- uncertainty z=-0.94
energy_insecurity ↓ -2.13σ DoD
-2.13σ vs own history — -40% change, now at 38th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.06
- euphoria z=+0.53
- fear z=-2.74
- frustration z=+0.89
- greed z=-2.30
- hope z=-0.27
- optimism z=+0.73
- panic z=+0.80
- skepticism z=-0.06
- uncertainty z=-1.81
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
deglobalisation: +0.41σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.41σ vs own history — +92% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.07
- frustration z=+2.04
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.91
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.38
- uncertainty z=-4.23
fed_pivot: +0.10σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.10σ vs own history — +60% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.76
- euphoria z=-1.12
- fear z=-0.85
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=-1.41
- hope z=-1.22
- optimism z=+0.76
- panic z=-1.21
- skepticism z=-0.34
- uncertainty z=-1.13
↓ Top Decreases
banking_crisis: -2.08σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.08σ vs own history — -46% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.00
- fear z=-2.95
- frustration z=-2.94
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.20
- optimism z=+0.76
- panic z=-0.98
- skepticism z=-1.01
- uncertainty z=-1.82
commodities_supercycle: -2.00σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.00σ vs own history — -63% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.47
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.15
- frustration z=-3.07
- greed z=-0.88
- hope z=+0.54
- optimism z=+0.84
- panic z=+1.90
- skepticism z=-0.28
- uncertainty z=-0.30
demographic_shift: -1.99σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.99σ vs own history — -87% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.87
- fear z=-3.65
- frustration z=-2.37
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.22
- optimism z=-1.48
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.14
- uncertainty z=-2.05
Narratives to Look Out For
fed_pivotp79
Attention is at the 79th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.09
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=-0.06
- frustration z=+0.81
- greed z=-0.58
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=+0.43
- panic z=+0.13
- skepticism z=-0.79
- uncertainty z=-0.13
interest_rate_insecurityp64
Attention is at the 64th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.64
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-2.24
- frustration z=-1.63
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+0.97
- optimism z=+0.55
- panic z=+2.34
- skepticism z=+0.29
- uncertainty z=-2.27
dollar_strengthp62
Attention is at the 62th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.31
- fear z=+0.94
- frustration z=-1.61
- greed z=+0.41
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=+0.51
- panic z=+2.34
- skepticism z=+0.85
- uncertainty z=+0.95
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -3.10 — Skepticism z-score: -0.07.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.59), energy_insecurity (0.60).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p38 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch deglobalisation: WoW rising (+92%)
If trend continues → domestic equity bias, supply-chain plays.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-3.10, regime_score=-2.14
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 6.9145 | -4.5805 | -6.3064 | 38th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 4.5512 | -3.0501 | -3.5890 | 38th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 3.3591 | -1.5508 | -0.0075 | 48th | 8 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.0831 | -0.9641 | -1.4049 | 45th | 5 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.9694 | -1.4027 | -1.0583 | 22th | 9 | |
| inflation | 2.3803 | -1.8523 | -0.1167 | 41th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.2382 | -1.5266 | +0.5479 | 64th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 1.9996 | -2.2724 | -1.2375 | 39th | 7 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 1.8549 | -2.5280 | -3.2265 | 33th | 7 | |
| recession | 1.7815 | -1.8395 | -1.2859 | 34th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-31
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| deglobalisation | 0.1446 | -0.2858 (-66.4%) | +0.0694 (+92.2%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0333 | -0.0452 (-57.6%) | -0.1708 (-83.7%) |
| stagflation | 0.9742 | -0.3876 (-28.5%) | +0.0398 (+4.3%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.9991 | -0.9653 (-49.1%) | +0.3742 (+59.9%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.5914 | -0.0261 (-4.2%) | -0.4264 (-41.9%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.2382 | -1.5266 (-40.5%) | +0.5479 (+32.4%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.0559 | -0.3113 (-84.8%) | -0.3579 (-86.5%) |
| energy_transition | 0.2676 | -0.2939 (-52.3%) | -0.4532 (-62.9%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 0.4413 | -0.7374 (-62.6%) | -0.1776 (-28.7%) |
| AI_boom | 3.3591 | -1.5508 (-31.6%) | -0.0075 (-0.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
128 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-31 10:00 UTC