Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-21 (built 05:15 UTC), 190 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by fed_pivot, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk down: -6.27 DoD (-52%), now at 54th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.37)
- ⚠️ euphoria rising fast (z=+2.04)
- ⚠️ skepticism rising fast (z=+1.75)
- energy_insecurity down: -4.60 DoD (-56%), now at 64th percentile; breadth 8 subs.
- AI_boom down: -3.90 DoD (-60%), now at 38th percentile; breadth 8 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +4.49 WoW (+333%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.37)
- ⚠️ euphoria rising fast (z=+2.04)
- ⚠️ skepticism rising fast (z=+1.75)
- energy_insecurity: +2.84 WoW (+363%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- technology_paradigm_shift: +2.60 WoW (+422%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) fed_pivot (p88) 2) dollar_strength (p79) 3) interest_rate_insecurity (p75) 4) sector_rotation (p69) 5) energy_insecurity (p64)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.18), skepticism neutral (z=+0.96).
- Fear is most concentrated in deglobalisation (avg fear 0.80).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): dollar_strength (0.70), interest_rate_insecurity (0.70).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.013 vs 7d baseline 0.066).
Watchlist
- Watch fed_pivot: if it remains above p88 for 3 days → duration longs, growth equity bias.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+333%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.18, regime_score=-1.51
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 5.8347 | -6.2749 | +4.4865 | 54th | 9 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.6236 | -4.6028 | +2.8402 | 64th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.2204 | -3.6930 | +2.6037 | 50th | 9 | |
| inflation | 2.7492 | -2.1318 | +2.3535 | 54th | 6 | |
| AI_boom | 2.5763 | -3.8954 | +2.0563 | 38th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.5196 | -2.0503 | +2.0123 | 50th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.1212 | -1.3550 | +1.8874 | 69th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9898 | -1.2202 | +1.7431 | 75th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 1.8807 | -2.5416 | +1.8443 | 46th | 6 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 1.5414 | -3.0472 | +1.2104 | 64th | 8 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 9,699 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 87 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 31 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 6,531 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 20,740 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,680 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,680 total posts | 3,220 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 744 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 665 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 645 |
| r/investing | 604 |
| r/economics | 563 |
| r/stocks | 527 |
| r/StockMarket | 379 |
| r/options | 318 |
| r/finance | 98 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 63 |
| r/TrueReddit | 45 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 29 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-21
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| sector_rotation | 2.1212 | -1.3550 (-39.0%) | +1.8874 (+807.2%) |
| inflation | 2.7492 | -2.1318 (-43.7%) | +2.3535 (+594.7%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9898 | -1.2202 (-38.0%) | +1.7431 (+706.7%) |
| recession | 2.5196 | -2.0503 (-44.9%) | +2.0123 (+396.7%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.9326 | -0.4817 (-34.1%) | +0.9201 (+7361.1%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.6635 | +0.0534 (+8.8%) | +0.5102 (+332.7%) |
| geopolitical_risk | 5.8347 | -6.2749 (-51.8%) | +4.4865 (+332.8%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.1531 | +0.0909 (+146.1%) | +0.1531 (+15312500000.0%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.1955 | -0.0012 (-0.6%) | +0.1955 (+19547348484.8%) |
| crypto_adoption | 1.8807 | -2.5416 (-57.5%) | +1.8443 (+5071.9%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
87 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-21 05:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 31 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 9699 |
| narrative_scores | 6531 |
| fetch_runs | 87 |
| post_rankings | 20740 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 31 |