Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-19 (built 17:15 UTC), 276 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by energy_insecurity, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- energy_insecurity up: +2.65 DoD (+53%), now at 100th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- interest_rate_insecurity down: -2.03 DoD (-30%), now at 90th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- technology_paradigm_shift down: -1.97 DoD (-35%), now at 67th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +8.65 WoW (+775%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
- energy_insecurity: +7.28 WoW (+2081%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
- inflation: +5.45 WoW (+1361%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) energy_insecurity (p100) 2) commodities_supercycle (p100) 3) recession (p100) 4) banking_crisis (p100) 5) inflation (p95)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear elevated (z=+1.36), skepticism neutral (z=+0.42).
- Fear is most concentrated in dollar_strength (avg fear 0.80).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): energy_insecurity (0.74), commodities_supercycle (0.71), recession (0.67).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.046 vs 7d baseline 0.078).
Watchlist
- Watch energy_insecurity: if it remains above p90 for 3 days → review positioning.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+775%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+1.36, regime_score=+3.42
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.7694 | +1.5537 | +8.6530 | 73th | 9 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.6343 | +2.6547 | +7.2843 | 100th | 9 | |
| inflation | 5.8455 | -0.9869 | +5.4455 | 95th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.9623 | +1.9088 | +4.5623 | 100th | 9 | |
| recession | 4.7707 | +0.3307 | +4.1921 | 100th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 4.7628 | -2.0308 | +4.4461 | 90th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.6747 | -1.9684 | +3.3414 | 67th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 3.5097 | -1.1770 | +3.1735 | 50th | 8 | |
| stagflation | 2.8657 | -0.1389 | +2.8203 | 95th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.6967 | -1.2407 | +2.6300 | 59th | 6 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 8,867 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 81 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 25 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 5,901 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 19,300 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,408 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,408 total posts | 2,948 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 706 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 630 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 603 |
| r/investing | 568 |
| r/economics | 534 |
| r/stocks | 497 |
| r/StockMarket | 359 |
| r/options | 302 |
| r/finance | 96 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 61 |
| r/TrueReddit | 28 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 24 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-19
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.7694 | +1.5537 (+18.9%) | +8.6530 (+775.0%) |
| energy_insecurity | 7.6343 | +2.6547 (+53.3%) | +7.2843 (+2081.2%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.9623 | +1.9088 (+62.5%) | +4.5623 (+1140.6%) |
| inflation | 5.8455 | -0.9869 (-14.4%) | +5.4455 (+1361.4%) |
| recession | 4.7707 | +0.3307 (+7.4%) | +4.1921 (+724.4%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 4.7628 | -2.0308 (-29.9%) | +4.4461 (+1404.0%) |
| stagflation | 2.8657 | -0.1389 (-4.6%) | +2.8203 (+6204.6%) |
| AI_boom | 3.5097 | -1.1770 (-25.1%) | +3.1735 (+944.0%) |
| sector_rotation | 2.5359 | -0.4774 (-15.8%) | +2.4025 (+1801.9%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.6747 | -1.9684 (-34.9%) | +3.3414 (+1002.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
81 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-19 17:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 25 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 8867 |
| narrative_scores | 5901 |
| fetch_runs | 81 |
| post_rankings | 19300 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 25 |