Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-09 (built 22:15 UTC), 316 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.28
- euphoria z=+0.31
- fear z=-1.81
- frustration z=+0.45
- greed z=-0.07
- hope z=+0.21
- optimism z=-0.54
- panic z=+0.07
- skepticism z=-0.58
- uncertainty z=-1.19
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.27
- euphoria z=+0.53
- fear z=-1.93
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=-1.26
- hope z=+0.23
- optimism z=-0.61
- panic z=-0.44
- skepticism z=-0.97
- uncertainty z=-1.13
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.57
- euphoria z=+2.00
- fear z=-1.38
- frustration z=-0.40
- greed z=+0.53
- hope z=+0.60
- optimism z=+0.10
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=-0.68
- uncertainty z=-0.14
4. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.89
- euphoria z=-0.59
- fear z=-2.26
- frustration z=-1.41
- greed z=-0.98
- hope z=+0.71
- optimism z=-1.58
- panic z=-1.22
- skepticism z=-0.60
- uncertainty z=-1.18
5. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.16
- euphoria z=+2.40
- fear z=-1.40
- frustration z=-0.73
- greed z=+0.42
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-1.69
- panic z=+0.69
- skepticism z=-0.35
- uncertainty z=+0.30
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear ↑ +4.87σ DoD
+4.87σ vs own history — +923% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.41
- frustration z=-1.41
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=-1.41
eu_us_relations ↑ +2.21σ DoD
+2.21σ vs own history — +38% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.70
- fear z=+0.67
- frustration z=+0.71
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.13
- optimism z=+0.22
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.14
- uncertainty z=+1.02
technology_paradigm_shift ↑ +1.04σ DoD
+1.04σ vs own history — +19% change, now at 96th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.14
- euphoria z=+1.08
- fear z=-0.23
- frustration z=+0.45
- greed z=-0.45
- hope z=+0.39
- optimism z=-0.40
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.20
- uncertainty z=+0.03
↓ Top Decreases
banking_crisis ↓ -1.63σ DoD
-1.63σ vs own history — -16% change, now at 22th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.01
- fear z=-0.88
- frustration z=-0.25
- greed z=-0.53
- hope z=+0.39
- optimism z=+0.22
- panic z=-0.11
- skepticism z=+0.15
- uncertainty z=-0.19
dollar_strength ↓ -1.14σ DoD
-1.14σ vs own history — -28% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.47
- fear z=-0.23
- frustration z=+2.57
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.26
- uncertainty z=+0.66
geopolitical_risk ↓ -0.88σ DoD
-0.88σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 81th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.06
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.28
- frustration z=+0.45
- greed z=-0.14
- hope z=-0.77
- optimism z=-1.02
- panic z=-0.13
- skepticism z=+0.33
- uncertainty z=-0.00
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear: +4.46σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.46σ vs own history — +57425387207% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +1.43σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.43σ vs own history — +189% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.54
- frustration z=+2.77
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+2.20
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.17
- uncertainty z=+0.44
demographic_shift: +1.29σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.29σ vs own history — +219% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+2.73
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.46
- optimism z=+2.17
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.06
- uncertainty z=-0.46
↓ Top Decreases
dollar_strength: -1.13σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.13σ vs own history — -19% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.16
- fear z=-0.68
- frustration z=+4.19
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.38
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.38
- uncertainty z=-2.05
ex_usa_trade: -1.08σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.08σ vs own history — -51% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.08
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.66
- frustration z=-0.28
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.29
- optimism z=-0.53
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.43
- uncertainty z=-0.12
sector_rotation: -0.74σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.74σ vs own history — -11% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.23
- euphoria z=+0.01
- fear z=+0.40
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=-1.19
- hope z=+0.47
- optimism z=-0.08
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.60
- uncertainty z=+1.02
Narratives to Look Out For
trade_protectionismp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.23
- fear z=+1.73
- frustration z=-0.19
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.32
- optimism z=+0.21
- panic z=+0.71
- skepticism z=+1.50
- uncertainty z=-0.21
eu_us_relationsp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.57
- fear z=+1.54
- frustration z=+1.45
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.13
- optimism z=+0.56
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.50
- uncertainty z=+0.90
luddite_fearp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.71
- frustration z=-0.71
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=-0.71
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.39 — Skepticism z-score: -0.01.
Fear most concentrated in deglobalisation
Average fear score for deglobalisation: 0.85.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.55), energy_insecurity (0.57), technology_paradigm_shift (0.42).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.014 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.
Narratives driving novelty shift
technology_paradigm_shift (+2.2%), luddite_fear (+1.8%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p89 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch luddite_fear: WoW rising (+57425387207%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.39, regime_score=-1.74
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 12.5859 | -0.5975 | +1.0118 | 81th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.7155 | -0.3660 | +0.9606 | 85th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.1708 | +0.8330 | +0.3189 | 96th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.7291 | -0.0766 | +0.7067 | 69th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.3993 | +0.7701 | -0.1560 | 96th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.2292 | +0.4324 | +0.0309 | 96th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.5155 | -0.1984 | +0.7708 | 44th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.0128 | -0.1475 | -0.3761 | 30th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.3693 | -0.2791 | -0.7630 | 19th | 9 | |
| trade_protectionism | 1.7920 | +0.1764 | +1.0061 | 89th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-09
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.6065 | +2.4424 (+58.7%) | +1.3895 (+26.6%) |
| AI_boom | 5.6973 | +2.3948 (+72.5%) | +0.7151 (+14.4%) |
| luddite_fear | 1.2641 | +1.1518 (+1025.9%) | +1.2641 (+126410786254.2%) |
| eu_us_relations | 1.8565 | +0.8087 (+77.2%) | +0.9765 (+111.0%) |
| crypto_adoption | 5.0932 | +0.7199 (+16.5%) | +1.0036 (+24.5%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9708 | +0.2847 (+16.9%) | +0.9900 (+100.9%) |
| inflation | 3.5385 | -0.2511 (-6.6%) | +1.2775 (+56.5%) |
| stagflation | 1.4543 | -0.0161 (-1.1%) | +0.7227 (+98.8%) |
| trade_protectionism | 2.1496 | -0.0456 (-2.1%) | +0.6090 (+39.5%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.1195 | +0.0146 (+1.3%) | +0.5023 (+81.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
166 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-09 22:00 UTC