📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-01 22:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-01 (built 22:15 UTC), 316 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk 
  •  confidence z=-1.05
  •  euphoria z=+0.16
  •  fear z=-0.86
  •  frustration z=-0.21
  •  greed z=-0.13
  •  hope z=+0.98
  •  optimism z=+0.22
  •  panic z=+0.83
  •  skepticism z=-0.50
  •  uncertainty z=-0.59
2. energy_insecurity   confidence    greed 
  •  confidence z=-2.67
  •  euphoria z=+1.02
  •  fear z=-2.01
  •  frustration z=-1.15
  •  greed z=-2.29
  •  hope z=+0.54
  •  optimism z=-0.66
  •  panic z=+0.84
  •  skepticism z=+0.29
  •  uncertainty z=-1.04
3. technology_paradigm_shift 
  •  confidence z=+0.47
  •  euphoria z=+1.48
  •  fear z=+0.24
  •  frustration z=-1.04
  •  greed z=+0.69
  •  hope z=-0.29
  •  optimism z=-0.00
  •  panic z=+0.66
  •  skepticism z=+0.13
  •  uncertainty z=-0.85
4. crypto_adoption   panic 
  •  confidence z=-0.08
  •  euphoria z=-0.48
  •  fear z=-0.05
  •  frustration z=-0.61
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.54
  •  optimism z=-1.03
  •  panic z=+1.71
  •  skepticism z=-0.61
  •  uncertainty z=-1.27
5. AI_boom   uncertainty    skepticism 
  •  confidence z=-0.11
  •  euphoria z=-1.04
  •  fear z=-0.89
  •  frustration z=-0.85
  •  greed z=+0.47
  •  hope z=-0.56
  •  optimism z=-0.45
  •  panic z=+0.61
  •  skepticism z=+1.50
  •  uncertainty z=-2.37

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

trade_protectionism +5.10σ DoD
+5.10σ vs own history — +6739063275% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations +5.10σ DoD
+5.10σ vs own history — +5391250620% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
housing_bubble +0.59σ DoD
+0.59σ vs own history — +61% change, now at 70th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.84
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.96
  •  optimism z=-0.47
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+1.20

↓ Top Decreases

interest_rate_insecurity -1.06σ DoD
-1.06σ vs own history — -41% change, now at 48th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.70
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.11
  •  frustration z=+1.85
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-1.46
  •  optimism z=-0.41
  •  panic z=-0.96
  •  skepticism z=-1.41
  •  uncertainty z=+0.85
dollar_strength -1.04σ DoD
-1.04σ vs own history — -33% change, now at 70th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.60
  •  fear z=-0.42
  •  frustration z=+0.86
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=-3.93
  •  skepticism z=+0.40
  •  uncertainty z=+0.36
defense_rearmament -0.65σ DoD
-0.65σ vs own history — -6% change, now at 67th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.90
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.39
  •  frustration z=+0.42
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.08
  •  optimism z=+0.41
  •  panic z=-0.37
  •  skepticism z=-2.75
  •  uncertainty z=+1.57

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

trade_protectionism: +4.48σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.48σ vs own history — +6739063275% change over the last 3 days.
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +4.48σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.48σ vs own history — +5391250620% change over the last 3 days.
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
dollar_strength: +0.45σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.45σ vs own history — +102% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.02
  •  frustration z=-0.81
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=-1.96
  •  skepticism z=-1.51
  •  uncertainty z=+0.11

↓ Top Decreases

banking_crisis: -1.50σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.50σ vs own history — -30% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.51
  •  fear z=-0.14
  •  frustration z=-0.20
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-1.46
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+1.57
  •  skepticism z=+0.05
  •  uncertainty z=-1.34
demographic_shift: -1.20σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.20σ vs own history — -73% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.29
  •  fear z=-2.39
  •  frustration z=-2.33
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.29
  •  optimism z=+1.18
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+2.22
  •  uncertainty z=-1.36
defense_rearmament: -1.18σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.18σ vs own history — -20% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.50
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.71
  •  frustration z=-2.57
  •  greed z=+0.98
  •  hope z=-2.84
  •  optimism z=-1.52
  •  panic z=-0.58
  •  skepticism z=-0.46
  •  uncertainty z=+3.06

Narratives to Look Out For

trade_protectionismp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relationsp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
crypto_adoptionp96

Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.08
  •  euphoria z=-0.48
  •  fear z=-0.05
  •  frustration z=-0.61
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.54
  •  optimism z=-1.03
  •  panic z=+1.71
  •  skepticism z=-0.61
  •  uncertainty z=-1.27

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.47 — Skepticism z-score: -0.20.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.75.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.65), energy_insecurity (0.67), technology_paradigm_shift (0.48).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.005 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p71 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch trade_protectionism: WoW rising (+6739063275%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-2.47, regime_score=+0.14

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk11.3987-0.2676+0.624471th10
energy_insecurity7.5356-0.3604+1.155364th8
technology_paradigm_shift4.7929+0.1269-0.490868th9
crypto_adoption4.5591-0.3514+0.838496th7
AI_boom4.1797-0.0030-0.578861th9
sector_rotation3.6425+0.3316+0.279975th9
recession3.5882+0.3059+0.359868th10
commodities_supercycle3.0042-0.5309-0.970636th8
inflation2.6908-0.7541+1.029946th10
interest_rate_insecurity1.7454-1.2265+0.178248th10

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-01

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
energy_insecurity7.5285-0.3675 (-4.7%)+1.1482 (+18.0%)
crypto_adoption4.5549-0.3557 (-7.2%)+0.8341 (+22.4%)
recession3.5849+0.3026 (+9.2%)+0.3564 (+11.0%)
inflation2.6883-0.7566 (-22.0%)+1.0274 (+61.9%)
sector_rotation3.6391+0.3282 (+9.9%)+0.2765 (+8.2%)
energy_transition0.8759+0.4116 (+88.6%)+0.1631 (+22.9%)
geopolitical_risk11.3881-0.2783 (-2.4%)+0.6137 (+5.7%)
stagflation1.2466-0.0860 (-6.5%)+0.3279 (+35.7%)
fed_pivot0.8077-0.4643 (-36.5%)+0.4562 (+129.8%)
trade_protectionism0.0673+0.0673 (+6732763808.4%)+0.0673 (+6732763808.4%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

134 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-01 22:00 UTC