Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-25 (built 05:15 UTC), 189 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by housing_bubble, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. housing_bubble confidence ↑
- confidence z=+2.09
- fear z=+0.86
- frustration z=+0.98
- hope z=-0.96
- optimism z=+0.43
- panic z=+0.67
- skepticism z=+1.29
- uncertainty z=+0.91
2. dollar_strength skepticism ↑
- confidence z=-1.10
- fear z=-0.44
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=+0.41
- hope z=-1.12
- optimism z=+0.96
- panic z=+1.04
- skepticism z=+2.16
- uncertainty z=+0.77
3. interest_rate_insecurity fear ↓
- confidence z=-1.06
- euphoria z=+0.59
- fear z=-1.52
- frustration z=-1.32
- greed z=+0.82
- hope z=-0.60
- optimism z=-0.44
- panic z=+0.33
- skepticism z=-1.28
- uncertainty z=-0.55
4. energy_insecurity uncertainty ↓ confidence ↑
- confidence z=+1.94
- euphoria z=-0.40
- fear z=-1.33
- frustration z=+0.32
- greed z=-1.00
- hope z=-1.05
- optimism z=+1.58
- panic z=+1.25
- skepticism z=+0.37
- uncertainty z=-2.21
5. commodities_supercycle optimism ↑ skepticism ↑
- confidence z=+1.56
- euphoria z=+0.75
- fear z=-1.56
- frustration z=+0.57
- greed z=+0.26
- hope z=-0.30
- optimism z=+2.04
- panic z=+1.43
- skepticism z=+1.72
- uncertainty z=-1.66
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -62%
-8.22 DoD change — now at 46th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.62
- euphoria z=+0.35
- fear z=-0.91
- frustration z=-1.15
- greed z=+0.28
- hope z=-1.13
- optimism z=+0.39
- panic z=-0.10
- skepticism z=-0.17
- uncertainty z=-0.35
energy_insecurity ↓ -63%
-5.12 DoD change — now at 47th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.57
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.63
- frustration z=-0.18
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-2.15
- optimism z=+0.47
- panic z=+0.89
- skepticism z=-0.33
- uncertainty z=-0.93
commodities_supercycle ↓ -62%
-3.14 DoD change — now at 47th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.18
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.98
- frustration z=-0.63
- greed z=+0.24
- hope z=-0.89
- optimism z=+1.48
- panic z=+1.15
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=-0.25
What Changed Since Last Week
inflation: -88% WoW — trend decelerating
-5.98 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.92
- euphoria z=+1.55
- fear z=-0.24
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=+1.80
- hope z=+0.42
- optimism z=+0.16
- panic z=+0.74
- skepticism z=+1.34
- uncertainty z=+0.76
interest_rate_insecurity: -87% WoW — trend accelerating
-5.88 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.69
- euphoria z=-0.37
- fear z=-0.15
- frustration z=-1.77
- greed z=+1.40
- hope z=-0.55
- optimism z=-0.24
- panic z=-0.48
- skepticism z=-0.74
- uncertainty z=+0.58
fed_pivot: -92% WoW — trend accelerating
-3.42 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.30
- euphoria z=-0.72
- fear z=+0.55
- frustration z=+1.75
- greed z=-0.57
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=+0.71
- panic z=+1.44
- skepticism z=+1.76
- uncertainty z=+1.22
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -0.76 — Skepticism z-score: +0.02.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
housing_bubble (0.50), dollar_strength (0.70), interest_rate_insecurity (0.55).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.013 vs 7-day baseline 0.031.
Watchlist
Watch housing_bubble: if it remains above p60 for 3 days
Action: real estate underweight.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.76, regime_score=-0.53
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 5.0280 | -8.2179 | -3.1407 | 46th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.0199 | -5.1204 | -1.9597 | 47th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.8223 | -1.2055 | -2.8209 | 33th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 2.7535 | -0.6130 | -1.9332 | 36th | 8 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.2768 | -2.2111 | -1.6606 | 43th | 5 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 1.9402 | -3.1412 | -1.1133 | 47th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 1.8188 | -1.4182 | -1.1944 | 47th | 8 | |
| recession | 1.7069 | -1.3840 | -2.6979 | 32th | 10 | |
| defense_rearmament | 1.1150 | -0.8963 | -0.2378 | 36th | 6 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 0.9142 | -0.7761 | -5.8793 | 50th | 6 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 11,653 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 103 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 47 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 7,883 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 24,580 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,306 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,306 total posts | 3,846 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 838 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 760 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 720 |
| r/investing | 677 |
| r/economics | 630 |
| r/stocks | 600 |
| r/StockMarket | 421 |
| r/options | 357 |
| r/finance | 109 |
| r/TrueReddit | 85 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 69 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 40 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-25
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0263 | -0.0031 (-10.5%) | -0.0049 (-15.8%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0316 | -0.0037 (-10.5%) | -0.0059 (-15.8%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.2300 | +0.0258 (+12.7%) | -0.1136 (-33.1%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.2078 | -0.2060 (-49.8%) | -0.4122 (-66.5%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.3233 | -0.6945 (-68.2%) | -0.3385 (-51.1%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.0395 | -0.0357 (-47.5%) | -0.7996 (-95.3%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.1150 | -0.8963 (-44.6%) | -0.2378 (-17.6%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
103 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-25 05:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 47 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 11653 |
| narrative_scores | 7883 |
| fetch_runs | 103 |
| post_rankings | 24580 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 47 |