Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-01 (built 04:15 UTC), 188 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-1.79
- euphoria z=+0.18
- fear z=-2.41
- frustration z=+0.26
- greed z=-0.72
- hope z=+0.42
- optimism z=+1.09
- panic z=+0.07
- skepticism z=+0.17
- uncertainty z=-0.66
2. energy_insecurity fear ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.69
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-3.08
- frustration z=-1.29
- greed z=-2.29
- hope z=-0.63
- optimism z=-0.40
- panic z=+0.04
- skepticism z=+0.62
- uncertainty z=-1.15
3. technology_paradigm_shift greed ↓ fear ↑
- confidence z=+0.42
- euphoria z=+0.95
- fear z=+1.67
- frustration z=-1.22
- greed z=-1.78
- hope z=+0.02
- optimism z=+0.06
- panic z=+0.66
- skepticism z=-0.31
- uncertainty z=-0.18
4. crypto_adoption uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.84
- euphoria z=+0.58
- fear z=-1.46
- frustration z=-0.03
- greed z=-0.57
- hope z=-1.25
- optimism z=-0.58
- panic z=+1.28
- skepticism z=-0.56
- uncertainty z=-2.10
5. AI_boom uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.53
- euphoria z=+0.19
- fear z=-1.41
- frustration z=+0.19
- greed z=-0.82
- hope z=+0.17
- optimism z=+0.28
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+1.46
- uncertainty z=-1.58
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament ↓ -3.21σ DoD
-3.21σ vs own history — -56% change, now at 22th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.47
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.04
- frustration z=+0.42
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.78
- optimism z=-0.63
- panic z=-0.88
- skepticism z=-0.95
- uncertainty z=+0.24
energy_insecurity ↓ -2.75σ DoD
-2.75σ vs own history — -55% change, now at 32th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-2.19
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.27
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=-1.84
- hope z=-1.26
- optimism z=-1.16
- panic z=-1.43
- skepticism z=+0.45
- uncertainty z=+1.17
crypto_adoption ↓ -2.40σ DoD
-2.40σ vs own history — -51% change, now at 38th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.36
- euphoria z=-0.36
- fear z=+0.02
- frustration z=-0.01
- greed z=+0.29
- hope z=+0.37
- optimism z=+0.28
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.24
- uncertainty z=-0.40
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -2.16σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.16σ vs own history — -63% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.92
- euphoria z=+0.51
- fear z=+0.36
- frustration z=-2.57
- greed z=+1.97
- hope z=-3.47
- optimism z=-2.53
- panic z=-1.10
- skepticism z=+1.35
- uncertainty z=+1.79
banking_crisis: -1.92σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.92σ vs own history — -56% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.45
- fear z=-1.81
- frustration z=-0.65
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-2.13
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-1.24
- skepticism z=+0.48
- uncertainty z=-1.98
commodities_supercycle: -1.67σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.67σ vs own history — -64% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.63
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.73
- frustration z=-0.52
- greed z=-2.84
- hope z=-3.92
- optimism z=-4.55
- panic z=-0.66
- skepticism z=-0.93
- uncertainty z=-0.80
Narratives to Look Out For
fed_pivotp52
Attention is at the 52th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.07
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=-0.09
- frustration z=+0.83
- greed z=-0.21
- hope z=-0.26
- optimism z=+1.00
- panic z=+0.13
- skepticism z=-1.61
- uncertainty z=+1.15
dollar_strengthp48
Attention is at the 48th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.80
- fear z=-1.24
- frustration z=-1.07
- greed z=+0.58
- hope z=+0.69
- optimism z=+0.70
- panic z=+2.19
- skepticism z=+0.30
- uncertainty z=+0.46
crypto_adoptionp38
Attention is at the 38th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.84
- euphoria z=+0.58
- fear z=-1.46
- frustration z=-0.03
- greed z=-0.57
- hope z=-1.25
- optimism z=-0.58
- panic z=+1.28
- skepticism z=-0.56
- uncertainty z=-2.10
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: -3.28 — Skepticism z-score: -0.87.
Fear most concentrated in crypto_adoption
Average fear score for crypto_adoption: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.57), energy_insecurity (0.60), technology_paradigm_shift (0.40).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.005 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p31 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-3.28, regime_score=-0.91
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 5.8486 | -5.8648 | -4.9791 | 31th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.5649 | -4.3311 | -2.8154 | 32th | 6 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.8265 | -1.8395 | -2.4572 | 21th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.3848 | -2.5258 | -1.3360 | 38th | 6 | |
| AI_boom | 2.0461 | -2.1365 | -2.7124 | 34th | 8 | |
| recession | 1.7869 | -1.5131 | -1.4616 | 34th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 1.7017 | -1.6092 | -1.6608 | 29th | 8 | |
| inflation | 1.5052 | -1.9398 | -0.1557 | 34th | 7 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 1.4374 | -2.0976 | -2.5373 | 32th | 5 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.2348 | -1.7371 | -0.3324 | 35th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-01
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| fed_pivot | 0.5900 | -0.6819 (-53.6%) | +0.2385 (+67.8%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.0253 | -0.1127 (-81.7%) | -0.2381 (-90.4%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.3725 | -0.5800 (-60.9%) | +0.0392 (+11.8%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0500 | -0.0967 (-65.9%) | -0.3079 (-86.0%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.1338 | -0.1638 (-55.0%) | -0.4633 (-77.6%) |
| energy_transition | 0.1996 | -0.2648 (-57.0%) | -0.5132 (-72.0%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 0.3119 | -0.3460 (-52.6%) | -0.5734 (-64.8%) |
| stagflation | 0.3893 | -0.9433 (-70.8%) | -0.5293 (-57.6%) |
| banking_crisis | 0.7303 | -0.5526 (-43.1%) | -0.9455 (-56.4%) |
| inflation | 1.5052 | -1.9398 (-56.3%) | -0.1557 (-9.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
131 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-01 04:00 UTC