📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-13 04:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-13 (built 04:15 UTC), 200 posts today across 11 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   uncertainty    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-0.24
  •  euphoria z=+0.35
  •  fear z=-1.32
  •  frustration z=-1.10
  •  greed z=-0.80
  •  hope z=-0.61
  •  optimism z=-1.56
  •  panic z=+1.07
  •  skepticism z=-1.48
  •  uncertainty z=-2.05
2. energy_insecurity   hope    frustration 
  •  confidence z=-1.61
  •  euphoria z=+1.11
  •  fear z=-1.07
  •  frustration z=-1.86
  •  greed z=-1.26
  •  hope z=-1.95
  •  optimism z=-1.77
  •  panic z=+1.03
  •  skepticism z=-1.55
  •  uncertainty z=-1.21
3. technology_paradigm_shift   fear    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-1.05
  •  euphoria z=+1.00
  •  fear z=-2.33
  •  frustration z=-0.04
  •  greed z=+0.35
  •  hope z=+0.21
  •  optimism z=-2.13
  •  panic z=+0.81
  •  skepticism z=+1.12
  •  uncertainty z=-0.72
4. AI_boom   fear    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-1.29
  •  euphoria z=+1.09
  •  fear z=-2.28
  •  frustration z=-0.90
  •  greed z=-0.22
  •  hope z=-0.29
  •  optimism z=-1.72
  •  panic z=+1.07
  •  skepticism z=-0.28
  •  uncertainty z=-1.01
5. inflation   confidence    uncertainty 
  •  confidence z=-1.90
  •  euphoria z=+1.08
  •  fear z=-1.07
  •  frustration z=-0.66
  •  greed z=+1.12
  •  hope z=-0.35
  •  optimism z=-1.44
  •  panic z=+0.78
  •  skepticism z=-0.26
  •  uncertainty z=-1.86

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

No increases

↓ Top Decreases

defense_rearmament -0.61σ DoD
-0.61σ vs own history — -3% change, now at 7th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.09
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.09
  •  frustration z=+0.08
  •  greed z=-0.05
  •  hope z=+0.06
  •  optimism z=+0.01
  •  panic z=+0.29
  •  skepticism z=-0.09
  •  uncertainty z=-0.04
technology_paradigm_shift -0.59σ DoD
-0.59σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.08
  •  euphoria z=+0.11
  •  fear z=-0.26
  •  frustration z=-0.02
  •  greed z=+0.07
  •  hope z=+0.04
  •  optimism z=-0.03
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.45
  •  uncertainty z=-0.08
banking_crisis -0.55σ DoD
-0.55σ vs own history — -3% change, now at 64th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.07
  •  fear z=-0.01
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.10
  •  optimism z=+0.15
  •  panic z=+0.17
  •  skepticism z=-0.03
  •  uncertainty z=+0.03

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

demographic_shift: +1.22σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.22σ vs own history — +61% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.69
  •  fear z=+0.54
  •  frustration z=+3.01
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.23
  •  optimism z=-0.73
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.95
  •  uncertainty z=+1.45
stagflation: +1.16σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.16σ vs own history — +115% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.20
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+1.90
  •  frustration z=+0.16
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+2.71
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.15
  •  uncertainty z=-0.74
deglobalisation: +1.09σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.09σ vs own history — +17% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.51
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.66
  •  frustration z=+0.18
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.78
  •  optimism z=-0.95
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+2.74
  •  uncertainty z=-1.57

↓ Top Decreases

dollar_strength: -2.18σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.18σ vs own history — -61% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.58
  •  fear z=-1.96
  •  frustration z=+0.97
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+2.07
  •  optimism z=-0.08
  •  panic z=-0.04
  •  skepticism z=-2.33
  •  uncertainty z=-1.92
commodities_supercycle: -1.08σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.08σ vs own history — -17% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.24
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.27
  •  frustration z=-1.34
  •  greed z=-0.08
  •  hope z=+0.33
  •  optimism z=-1.77
  •  panic z=+0.88
  •  skepticism z=-0.98
  •  uncertainty z=+0.04
energy_insecurity: -1.05σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.05σ vs own history — -12% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.13
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.14
  •  frustration z=-1.25
  •  greed z=-1.20
  •  hope z=-2.51
  •  optimism z=-2.16
  •  panic z=+0.92
  •  skepticism z=-0.52
  •  uncertainty z=-0.01

Narratives to Look Out For

demographic_shiftp96

Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.06
  •  fear z=-0.56
  •  frustration z=+0.31
  •  greed z=+0.94
  •  hope z=+0.50
  •  optimism z=-0.37
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.21
  •  uncertainty z=-0.26
banking_crisisp93

Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-1.46
  •  fear z=-1.79
  •  frustration z=-0.43
  •  greed z=-1.28
  •  hope z=+0.31
  •  optimism z=-1.11
  •  panic z=+0.97
  •  skepticism z=-0.80
  •  uncertainty z=-1.41
stagflationp79

Attention is at the 79th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.97
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.18
  •  frustration z=-1.11
  •  greed z=-0.34
  •  hope z=+1.69
  •  optimism z=+0.68
  •  panic z=+0.88
  •  skepticism z=-0.85
  •  uncertainty z=-1.59

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.31 — Skepticism z-score: +0.45.
Fear most concentrated in recession
Average fear score for recession: 0.68.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.56), energy_insecurity (0.64), technology_paradigm_shift (0.35).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p18 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch demographic_shift: WoW rising (+61%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-1.31, regime_score=-0.63

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 260dBreadth
geopolitical_risk10.0975-0.2662-1.07967th11
energy_insecurity6.8716-0.1642-0.938611th11
technology_paradigm_shift4.9439-0.2370+0.93614th9
AI_boom4.2847-0.2163+0.62954th6
commodities_supercycle3.8916-0.0454-0.810421th10
inflation3.8400-0.1888+0.23087th9
crypto_adoption2.9854-0.1307+0.00404th4
banking_crisis2.2177-0.0657+0.562764th10
sector_rotation2.2156-0.1025-0.96034th7
recession2.1314-0.0880-0.77594th7

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-13

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
geopolitical_risk41.1014+30.8608 (+301.4%)+28.6762 (+230.8%)
energy_insecurity28.9425+21.7140 (+300.4%)+20.1401 (+228.8%)
commodities_supercycle19.1291+15.0019 (+363.5%)+13.8194 (+260.3%)
technology_paradigm_shift13.9917+9.1810 (+190.8%)+9.4408 (+207.4%)
AI_boom11.5004+7.5534 (+191.4%)+7.5009 (+187.5%)
banking_crisis8.6115+6.2660 (+267.2%)+6.6841 (+346.8%)
inflation10.5924+7.0436 (+198.5%)+6.1443 (+138.1%)
crypto_adoption9.1604+6.2930 (+219.5%)+6.3862 (+230.2%)
stagflation6.5863+4.6811 (+245.7%)+5.3623 (+438.1%)
defense_rearmament6.6833+4.7113 (+238.9%)+5.0085 (+299.1%)

SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores

Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-13

NarrativeStateR₀c (contagion)r (recovery)I (infected)S (susceptible)R (recovered)
banking_crisisexhaustion1.3720.6210.4030.5610.2660.173
stagflationacceleration1.2080.5380.3950.4860.4970.018
commodities_supercycleexhaustion1.1330.4680.3640.3450.5480.107
interest_rate_insecurityacceleration1.0980.4670.3750.2340.6940.072
energy_insecurityexhaustion1.0220.4250.3660.2250.6840.090
geopolitical_riskexhaustion1.0160.4280.3720.2150.6990.086
inflationexhaustion0.9250.4350.4200.2090.7460.046
demographic_shiftexhaustion0.8950.5150.5260.5620.4380.000
energy_transitionexhaustion0.8740.3920.3980.3560.6310.013
technology_paradigm_shiftexhaustion0.8150.4400.4910.1400.8300.030
defense_rearmamentexhaustion0.7940.4080.4640.3320.6560.012
AI_boomexhaustion0.7230.3750.4690.1770.8230.000
deglobalisationexhaustion0.7140.4180.5350.2350.7650.000
recessionexhaustion0.7100.3870.4940.2010.7920.007
fed_pivotexhaustion0.6690.3320.4470.1990.8010.000
sector_rotationexhaustion0.6580.3780.5250.2470.7440.009
ex_usa_tradeexhaustion0.6360.3500.5000.2110.7890.000
crypto_adoptionexhaustion0.5650.3210.5170.2000.8000.000
dollar_strengthexhaustion0.4400.2620.5450.3190.6810.000
housing_bubbleexhaustion0.4380.2570.5370.1950.8050.000

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)

Fetch Runs

179 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-13 04:00 UTC

Composite Fear Metric

-1.07
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators (positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
Component Weight Value (z-score) Weighted Contribution
Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk)0.40-0.704-0.282
Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score)0.30-1.306-0.392
Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score)0.10-1.519-0.152
Average Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week)0.20-1.230-0.246

Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.