Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-10 (built 16:15 UTC), 266 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.08
- euphoria z=+0.29
- fear z=-1.87
- frustration z=-0.07
- greed z=-0.70
- hope z=-0.75
- optimism z=-1.88
- panic z=-0.02
- skepticism z=-0.84
- uncertainty z=-1.02
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.31
- euphoria z=+0.73
- fear z=-2.03
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-1.63
- hope z=-0.91
- optimism z=-1.40
- panic z=-0.58
- skepticism z=-0.97
- uncertainty z=-1.11
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.49
- euphoria z=+2.33
- fear z=-1.50
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=+0.24
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=-0.20
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.71
- uncertainty z=+0.03
4. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-2.68
- euphoria z=-0.44
- fear z=-2.16
- frustration z=-1.98
- greed z=-1.49
- hope z=+0.38
- optimism z=-2.64
- panic z=-1.25
- skepticism z=-0.58
- uncertainty z=-0.95
5. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.34
- euphoria z=+2.46
- fear z=-1.56
- frustration z=-0.85
- greed z=+0.09
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-2.05
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.65
- uncertainty z=+0.31
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength ↑ +0.90σ DoD
+0.90σ vs own history — +40% change, now at 89th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.32
- fear z=-0.20
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.14
- uncertainty z=-1.00
stagflation ↑ +0.55σ DoD
+0.55σ vs own history — +20% change, now at 92th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.09
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.54
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.23
- optimism z=-0.51
- panic z=-0.11
- skepticism z=-0.31
- uncertainty z=+0.04
inflation ↑ +0.35σ DoD
+0.35σ vs own history — +11% change, now at 86th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.18
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.45
- frustration z=-0.40
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.70
- optimism z=-1.27
- panic z=+0.08
- skepticism z=-0.27
- uncertainty z=-0.11
↓ Top Decreases
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.47σ DoD
-1.47σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 25th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.20
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.21
- frustration z=-0.56
- greed z=-0.64
- hope z=-0.94
- optimism z=-1.38
- panic z=-0.08
- skepticism z=-0.31
- uncertainty z=+0.13
crypto_adoption ↓ -1.37σ DoD
-1.37σ vs own history — -12% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.16
- frustration z=-0.08
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.12
- optimism z=-0.11
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.10
- uncertainty z=-1.00
energy_insecurity ↓ -1.36σ DoD
-1.36σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 19th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.35
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.28
- frustration z=-0.68
- greed z=-0.43
- hope z=-1.14
- optimism z=-0.85
- panic z=-0.12
- skepticism z=-0.06
- uncertainty z=-0.02
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +0.56σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.56σ vs own history — +98% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.77
- frustration z=-1.39
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+3.64
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.23
- skepticism z=-3.49
- uncertainty z=-2.47
demographic_shift: +0.47σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.47σ vs own history — +78% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.36
- frustration z=-1.22
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.44
- uncertainty z=-0.26
inflation: +0.26σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.26σ vs own history — +50% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.28
- euphoria z=+0.03
- fear z=-1.44
- frustration z=-1.62
- greed z=+0.44
- hope z=-0.57
- optimism z=-0.29
- panic z=+0.44
- skepticism z=-1.21
- uncertainty z=-1.63
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation: -1.32σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.32σ vs own history — -43% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.94
- frustration z=-0.61
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.13
- uncertainty z=+0.71
dollar_strength: -1.32σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.32σ vs own history — -22% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.06
- fear z=-0.91
- frustration z=+2.31
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.52
- optimism z=+0.56
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.30
- uncertainty z=-2.88
ex_usa_trade: -1.13σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.13σ vs own history — -51% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.26
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.92
- frustration z=-1.01
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.02
- optimism z=+0.31
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.86
- uncertainty z=-1.21
Narratives to Look Out For
technology_paradigm_shiftp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.49
- euphoria z=+2.33
- fear z=-1.50
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=+0.24
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=-0.20
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.71
- uncertainty z=+0.03
energy_insecurityp85
Attention is at the 85th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-2.31
- euphoria z=+0.73
- fear z=-2.03
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-1.63
- hope z=-0.91
- optimism z=-1.40
- panic z=-0.58
- skepticism z=-0.97
- uncertainty z=-1.11
AI_boomp78
Attention is at the 78th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.34
- euphoria z=+2.46
- fear z=-1.56
- frustration z=-0.85
- greed z=+0.09
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-2.05
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.65
- uncertainty z=+0.31
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.54 — Skepticism z-score: -0.18.
Fear most concentrated in banking_crisis
Average fear score for banking_crisis: 0.63.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.56), energy_insecurity (0.59), technology_paradigm_shift (0.52).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.1%), inflation (+3.1%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p64 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+98%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.54, regime_score=-1.05
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.1063 | -1.4326 | -0.1234 | 25th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.7552 | -0.9315 | +0.4958 | 19th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.2079 | -0.0283 | +0.9728 | 82th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.5944 | +0.1346 | +0.6047 | 78th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.2717 | -0.4513 | +0.2588 | 26th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.8960 | +0.3961 | +1.2974 | 86th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.7306 | -0.5326 | -0.1773 | 4th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.9728 | -0.0283 | +0.1201 | 32th | 7 | |
| recession | 2.1435 | -0.2039 | -0.7693 | 14th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.7445 | -0.0071 | +0.3008 | 50th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-10
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| inflation | 6.8801 | +3.5942 (+109.4%) | +4.4277 (+180.5%) |
| AI_boom | 7.1563 | +1.8657 (+35.3%) | +3.7322 (+109.0%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 7.5913 | +1.4565 (+23.7%) | +3.9729 (+109.8%) |
| stagflation | 3.0985 | +1.7481 (+129.4%) | +2.5081 (+424.9%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.2984 | +1.4564 (+51.2%) | +1.9818 (+85.6%) |
| energy_insecurity | 8.7443 | +0.4524 (+5.5%) | +1.9806 (+29.3%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.5499 | +0.7197 (+39.3%) | +1.3110 (+105.8%) |
| geopolitical_risk | 12.2393 | +0.3449 (+2.9%) | +1.3539 (+12.4%) |
| dollar_strength | 1.6068 | +1.3256 (+471.4%) | +0.4400 (+37.7%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.5099 | +0.4703 (+45.2%) | +0.9509 (+170.1%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
169 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-10 16:00 UTC