Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-24 (built 23:15 UTC), 321 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by banking_crisis, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. banking_crisis hope ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=+0.48
- euphoria z=-0.82
- fear z=+0.84
- frustration z=+1.28
- greed z=+0.88
- hope z=-4.10
- optimism z=-1.89
- panic z=+0.23
- skepticism z=+1.43
- uncertainty z=+0.03
2. crypto_adoption
- confidence z=+0.80
- euphoria z=-0.38
- fear z=-0.97
- frustration z=+1.20
- greed z=+0.11
- hope z=-0.82
- optimism z=-0.11
- panic z=-1.03
- skepticism z=-1.04
- uncertainty z=-0.35
3. defense_rearmament frustration ↑ confidence ↑
- confidence z=+1.82
- euphoria z=+0.87
- fear z=+0.72
- frustration z=+1.89
- greed z=-0.44
- hope z=+0.91
- optimism z=+1.49
- panic z=+0.21
- skepticism z=-0.51
- uncertainty z=-1.10
4. demographic_shift skepticism ↑
- confidence z=-0.41
- fear z=+1.32
- frustration z=-0.31
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.53
- optimism z=-0.21
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.54
- uncertainty z=+1.25
5. commodities_supercycle uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-0.48
- euphoria z=+0.75
- fear z=-0.74
- frustration z=+1.21
- greed z=+0.05
- hope z=+0.52
- optimism z=+1.20
- panic z=+0.50
- skepticism z=+1.24
- uncertainty z=-1.66
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -15%
-2.39 DoD change — now at 85th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.19
- euphoria z=-1.22
- fear z=-0.40
- frustration z=-0.04
- greed z=+0.50
- hope z=-0.05
- optimism z=-0.17
- panic z=+0.15
- skepticism z=+0.51
- uncertainty z=-0.59
energy_insecurity ↓ -19%
-1.91 DoD change — now at 79th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.55
- euphoria z=-0.88
- fear z=-0.70
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=-1.40
- hope z=-0.09
- optimism z=+0.38
- panic z=-0.02
- skepticism z=+0.83
- uncertainty z=-0.60
AI_boom ↓ -30%
-1.47 DoD change — now at 41th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.01
- euphoria z=-0.69
- fear z=+0.46
- frustration z=+0.70
- greed z=+0.10
- hope z=+0.14
- optimism z=-0.51
- panic z=+2.17
- skepticism z=-1.18
- uncertainty z=+0.35
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: +104% WoW — trend accelerating
+6.74 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.15
- euphoria z=-0.05
- fear z=+0.08
- frustration z=+1.57
- greed z=+2.77
- hope z=+0.37
- optimism z=+0.72
- panic z=+2.44
- skepticism z=+1.51
- uncertainty z=-0.00
energy_insecurity: +100% WoW — trend decelerating
+4.07 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+2.45
- euphoria z=-0.52
- fear z=-1.26
- frustration z=-0.18
- greed z=-0.94
- hope z=-0.29
- optimism z=+3.08
- panic z=+2.06
- skepticism z=-0.75
- uncertainty z=-2.16
commodities_supercycle: +95% WoW — trend accelerating
+2.48 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.45
- euphoria z=+0.71
- fear z=-1.67
- frustration z=+0.83
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-0.47
- optimism z=+2.22
- panic z=+1.43
- skepticism z=+0.78
- uncertainty z=-2.07
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear elevated, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: +1.32 — Skepticism z-score: +0.80.
Fear most concentrated in housing_bubble
Average fear score for housing_bubble: 0.90.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
banking_crisis (0.67), crypto_adoption (0.49), defense_rearmament (0.72).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.013 vs 7-day baseline 0.043.
Watchlist
Watch banking_crisis: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: financials underweight, flight to quality.
Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+104%)
If trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+1.32, regime_score=+1.65
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.2459 | -2.3884 | +6.7428 | 85th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.1403 | -1.9077 | +4.0673 | 79th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.0813 | -0.9896 | +2.4773 | 86th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.4879 | -0.0663 | +1.2648 | 96th | 7 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.0278 | -0.3209 | +0.0653 | 45th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 3.3666 | -1.4690 | +0.2755 | 41th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.2371 | -0.8350 | +1.6824 | 75th | 9 | |
| recession | 3.0909 | -0.6622 | +1.1351 | 67th | 10 | |
| inflation | 2.4970 | -1.0838 | -0.3035 | 48th | 9 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.0472 | +0.3314 | +0.5343 | 100th | 10 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 11,520 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 102 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 46 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 7,803 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 24,340 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,268 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,268 total posts | 3,808 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 831 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 757 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 714 |
| r/investing | 670 |
| r/economics | 627 |
| r/stocks | 594 |
| r/StockMarket | 417 |
| r/options | 355 |
| r/finance | 109 |
| r/TrueReddit | 85 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 69 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 40 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-24
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.2459 | -2.3884 (-15.3%) | +6.7428 (+103.7%) |
| energy_insecurity | 8.1403 | -1.9077 (-19.0%) | +4.0673 (+99.9%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.0813 | -0.9896 (-16.3%) | +2.4773 (+95.1%) |
| crypto_adoption | 4.4879 | -0.0663 (-1.5%) | +1.2648 (+39.2%) |
| defense_rearmament | 2.0113 | -0.2190 (-9.8%) | +1.3399 (+199.6%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.2371 | -0.8350 (-20.5%) | +1.6824 (+108.2%) |
| banking_crisis | 2.0472 | +0.3314 (+19.3%) | +0.5343 (+35.3%) |
| recession | 3.0909 | -0.6622 (-17.6%) | +1.1351 (+58.0%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.6249 | -0.0649 (-9.4%) | +0.4706 (+305.1%) |
| dollar_strength | 1.0178 | -0.2442 (-19.4%) | +0.5447 (+115.1%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
102 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-24 23:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 46 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 11520 |
| narrative_scores | 7803 |
| fetch_runs | 102 |
| post_rankings | 24340 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 46 |