Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-10 (built 22:15 UTC), 316 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.09
- euphoria z=+0.31
- fear z=-1.85
- frustration z=-0.24
- greed z=-0.34
- hope z=-0.64
- optimism z=-1.97
- panic z=+0.36
- skepticism z=-0.86
- uncertainty z=-1.15
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.20
- euphoria z=+0.53
- fear z=-1.98
- frustration z=-0.87
- greed z=-1.25
- hope z=-1.29
- optimism z=-1.59
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=-0.88
- uncertainty z=-1.11
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.40
- euphoria z=+2.12
- fear z=-1.40
- frustration z=-0.92
- greed z=+0.13
- hope z=+0.59
- optimism z=-0.32
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=-0.82
- uncertainty z=-0.01
4. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.40
- euphoria z=+2.25
- fear z=-1.48
- frustration z=-1.13
- greed z=-0.06
- hope z=-0.17
- optimism z=-2.14
- panic z=+0.69
- skepticism z=-0.90
- uncertainty z=+0.22
5. commodities_supercycle optimism ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.47
- euphoria z=-0.59
- fear z=-2.05
- frustration z=-1.67
- greed z=-0.37
- hope z=+0.72
- optimism z=-2.53
- panic z=-0.54
- skepticism z=-0.54
- uncertainty z=-0.95
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength ↑ +1.37σ DoD
+1.37σ vs own history — +61% change, now at 89th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.77
- fear z=-0.04
- frustration z=-0.60
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.23
- uncertainty z=-1.14
stagflation ↑ +1.21σ DoD
+1.21σ vs own history — +39% change, now at 92th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.06
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.38
- frustration z=+0.06
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.31
- optimism z=-0.70
- panic z=+0.18
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.17
banking_crisis ↑ +1.04σ DoD
+1.04σ vs own history — +18% change, now at 89th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.54
- fear z=+0.10
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=-0.25
- hope z=+0.09
- optimism z=-0.73
- panic z=+0.25
- skepticism z=-0.43
- uncertainty z=+0.16
↓ Top Decreases
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.35σ DoD
-1.35σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 36th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.19
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.18
- frustration z=-0.75
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=-0.81
- optimism z=-1.48
- panic z=+0.31
- skepticism z=-0.33
- uncertainty z=-0.01
energy_transition ↓ -1.34σ DoD
-1.34σ vs own history — -22% change, now at 24th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.59
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.01
- frustration z=+0.57
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.31
- optimism z=-1.10
- panic z=-0.36
- skepticism z=-0.99
- uncertainty z=-0.08
energy_insecurity ↓ -1.33σ DoD
-1.33σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 37th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.22
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.21
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-1.54
- optimism z=-1.06
- panic z=+0.45
- skepticism z=+0.04
- uncertainty z=-0.02
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +0.80σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.80σ vs own history — +131% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.64
- frustration z=-1.21
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+3.70
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.52
- skepticism z=-3.28
- uncertainty z=-2.38
demographic_shift: +0.64σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.64σ vs own history — +93% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.68
- frustration z=-1.05
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.23
- uncertainty z=+0.05
inflation: +0.49σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.49σ vs own history — +70% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.19
- euphoria z=+0.04
- fear z=-1.27
- frustration z=-1.16
- greed z=+0.41
- hope z=-0.65
- optimism z=-0.55
- panic z=+0.79
- skepticism z=-1.04
- uncertainty z=-1.61
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation: -1.08σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.08σ vs own history — -30% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.04
- frustration z=-0.53
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.72
- uncertainty z=+0.30
ex_usa_trade: -1.08σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.08σ vs own history — -47% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.48
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.14
- frustration z=-0.94
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.12
- optimism z=+0.22
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.55
- uncertainty z=-1.85
dollar_strength: -1.01σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.01σ vs own history — -11% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.53
- fear z=-0.76
- frustration z=+2.28
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.81
- optimism z=+0.40
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.38
- uncertainty z=-3.00
Narratives to Look Out For
technology_paradigm_shiftp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.40
- euphoria z=+2.12
- fear z=-1.40
- frustration z=-0.92
- greed z=+0.13
- hope z=+0.59
- optimism z=-0.32
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=-0.82
- uncertainty z=-0.01
AI_boomp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.40
- euphoria z=+2.25
- fear z=-1.48
- frustration z=-1.13
- greed z=-0.06
- hope z=-0.17
- optimism z=-2.14
- panic z=+0.69
- skepticism z=-0.90
- uncertainty z=+0.22
stagflationp92
Attention is at the 92th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.84
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.02
- frustration z=-1.64
- greed z=-0.12
- hope z=+2.26
- optimism z=+0.60
- panic z=+0.33
- skepticism z=-2.21
- uncertainty z=-2.13
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.51 — Skepticism z-score: -0.23.
Fear most concentrated in demographic_shift
Average fear score for demographic_shift: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.58), energy_insecurity (0.61), technology_paradigm_shift (0.53).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.011 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.4%), energy_insecurity (-3.1%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p68 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+131%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.51, regime_score=-0.99
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.2760 | -1.2629 | +0.0462 | 36th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.7877 | -0.8990 | +0.5283 | 37th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.6924 | +0.4562 | +1.4573 | 96th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 5.1254 | +0.6656 | +1.1357 | 96th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.4294 | +0.9295 | +1.8309 | 89th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.4054 | -0.3176 | +0.3925 | 44th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.8454 | -0.4178 | -0.0625 | 28th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.1767 | +0.1755 | +0.3240 | 61th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.3002 | -0.0471 | -0.6125 | 21th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.0410 | +0.2894 | +0.5973 | 79th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-10
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| inflation | 5.9280 | +2.6421 (+80.4%) | +3.4756 (+141.7%) |
| AI_boom | 6.3485 | +1.0580 (+20.0%) | +2.9244 (+85.4%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.6981 | +0.5633 (+9.2%) | +3.0797 (+85.1%) |
| stagflation | 2.6511 | +1.3007 (+96.3%) | +2.0608 (+349.1%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.6395 | +0.7975 (+28.1%) | +1.3229 (+57.1%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.5585 | +0.7283 (+39.8%) | +1.3196 (+106.5%) |
| banking_crisis | 2.0016 | +0.9402 (+88.6%) | +0.2884 (+16.8%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.2139 | +0.1744 (+16.8%) | +0.6549 (+117.2%) |
| dollar_strength | 1.2390 | +0.9578 (+340.6%) | +0.0722 (+6.2%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.6232 | +0.0750 (+4.8%) | +0.1473 (+10.0%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
170 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-10 22:00 UTC