Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-23 (built 23:15 UTC), 344 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk ⚠️ frustration z=+1.60
- confidence z=+0.44
- euphoria z=+0.63
- fear z=+1.30
- frustration z=+1.60
- greed z=+0.61
- hope z=+1.09
- optimism z=+0.63
- panic z=+0.79
- skepticism z=+1.08
- uncertainty z=+0.79
2. energy_insecurity ⚠️ optimism z=+1.59
- confidence z=-0.58
- euphoria z=+0.40
- fear z=-0.17
- frustration z=+0.54
- greed z=+0.12
- hope z=+1.22
- optimism z=+1.59
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=-0.07
- uncertainty z=-1.44
3. commodities_supercycle ⚠️ frustration z=+1.52 ⚠️ uncertainty z=-1.52
- confidence z=-1.11
- euphoria z=+0.75
- fear z=+1.37
- frustration z=+1.52
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=+1.21
- optimism z=+0.90
- panic z=+1.17
- skepticism z=+0.65
- uncertainty z=-1.52
4. crypto_adoption ⚠️ fear z=+2.68
- confidence z=+0.99
- euphoria z=+0.24
- fear z=+2.68
- frustration z=+0.47
- greed z=-0.15
- hope z=+0.26
- optimism z=-0.27
- panic z=-0.05
- skepticism z=-0.96
- uncertainty z=+0.20
5. sector_rotation
- confidence z=-0.26
- euphoria z=-0.30
- fear z=+0.21
- frustration z=+1.14
- greed z=-0.10
- hope z=+0.40
- optimism z=-0.11
- panic z=+0.49
- skepticism z=+0.04
- uncertainty z=+0.22
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk up: +48%
+5.06 DoD change — now at 100th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.48
- euphoria z=-0.56
- fear z=+0.56
- frustration z=+2.07
- greed z=-1.38
- hope z=+2.12
- optimism z=+0.11
- panic z=+0.26
- skepticism z=+1.60
- uncertainty z=+0.11
energy_insecurity up: +35%
+2.60 DoD change — now at 100th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.44
- euphoria z=-0.42
- fear z=-0.60
- frustration z=+0.97
- greed z=-0.35
- hope z=+1.31
- optimism z=+1.27
- panic z=-0.06
- skepticism z=+0.41
- uncertainty z=-0.93
commodities_supercycle up: +46%
+1.90 DoD change — now at 100th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.16
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.93
- frustration z=+2.13
- greed z=-1.59
- hope z=+1.53
- optimism z=+1.61
- panic z=+0.27
- skepticism z=+1.43
- uncertainty z=-0.46
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: +1063% WoW — trend accelerating
+14.33 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+2.40
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.10
- frustration z=+3.26
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.65
- skepticism z=-1.08
- uncertainty z=-0.17
energy_insecurity: +1183% WoW — trend accelerating
+9.26 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.40
- frustration z=+2.01
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.29
- uncertainty z=-0.67
commodities_supercycle: +1734% WoW — trend accelerating
+5.74 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.89
- frustration z=+2.59
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.08
- uncertainty z=-2.47
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear elevated, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: +1.86 — Skepticism z-score: +0.10.
Fear most concentrated in ex_usa_trade
Average fear score for ex_usa_trade: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.72), energy_insecurity (0.72), commodities_supercycle (0.73).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.014 vs 7-day baseline 0.047.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch energy_insecurity: WoW rising (+1183%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+1.86, regime_score=+2.66
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.6813 | +5.0640 | +14.3331 | 100th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 10.0480 | +2.6021 | +9.2647 | 100th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 6.0709 | +1.9045 | +5.7399 | 100th | 8 | |
| AI_boom | 4.8356 | -0.0446 | +4.3156 | 73th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.5542 | +1.2752 | +4.5178 | 100th | 6 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.3487 | -0.1009 | +3.7320 | 50th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 4.0721 | +0.2770 | +3.8383 | 100th | 10 | |
| recession | 3.7884 | +0.7896 | +3.2811 | 81th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.5808 | +0.2679 | +3.1851 | 81th | 9 | |
| defense_rearmament | 2.2302 | +0.3241 | +1.8202 | 100th | 8 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 10,962 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 98 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 42 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 7,418 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 23,380 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,079 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,079 total posts | 3,619 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 807 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 727 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 689 |
| r/investing | 654 |
| r/economics | 603 |
| r/stocks | 573 |
| r/StockMarket | 402 |
| r/options | 345 |
| r/finance | 106 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 69 |
| r/TrueReddit | 68 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 36 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-23
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.6813 | +5.0640 (+47.7%) | +14.3331 (+1063.1%) |
| energy_insecurity | 10.0480 | +2.6021 (+34.9%) | +9.2647 (+1182.7%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 6.0709 | +1.9045 (+45.7%) | +5.7399 (+1734.4%) |
| crypto_adoption | 4.5542 | +1.2752 (+38.9%) | +4.5178 (+12424.0%) |
| AI_boom | 4.8356 | -0.0446 (-0.9%) | +4.3156 (+829.9%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.0721 | +0.2770 (+7.3%) | +3.8383 (+1641.6%) |
| recession | 3.7884 | +0.7896 (+26.3%) | +3.2811 (+646.9%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.3487 | -0.1009 (-2.3%) | +3.7320 (+605.2%) |
| inflation | 3.5808 | +0.2679 (+8.1%) | +3.1851 (+804.9%) |
| defense_rearmament | 2.2302 | +0.3241 (+17.0%) | +1.8202 (+444.0%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
98 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-23 23:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 42 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 10962 |
| narrative_scores | 7418 |
| fetch_runs | 98 |
| post_rankings | 23380 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 42 |