Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-12 (built 16:15 UTC), 259 posts today across 11 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk uncertainty ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.52
- euphoria z=+0.29
- fear z=-1.52
- frustration z=-1.25
- greed z=-0.68
- hope z=-0.47
- optimism z=-2.04
- panic z=+1.05
- skepticism z=-1.61
- uncertainty z=-2.22
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.78
- euphoria z=+0.73
- fear z=-1.46
- frustration z=-1.82
- greed z=-1.03
- hope z=-2.62
- optimism z=-2.11
- panic z=+0.98
- skepticism z=-1.67
- uncertainty z=-1.32
3. technology_paradigm_shift optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-1.12
- euphoria z=+1.25
- fear z=-2.09
- frustration z=-0.22
- greed z=-0.02
- hope z=+0.45
- optimism z=-2.33
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=+1.71
- uncertainty z=-0.52
4. AI_boom fear ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.84
- euphoria z=+1.39
- fear z=-2.39
- frustration z=-0.87
- greed z=-0.43
- hope z=-0.45
- optimism z=-2.07
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=+0.02
- uncertainty z=-0.70
5. inflation confidence ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-2.06
- euphoria z=+1.09
- fear z=-1.30
- frustration z=-0.80
- greed z=+1.06
- hope z=-0.66
- optimism z=-1.37
- panic z=+1.03
- skepticism z=-0.03
- uncertainty z=-1.96
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
housing_bubble ↑ +0.49σ DoD
+0.49σ vs own history — +107% change, now at 42th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
demographic_shift ↑ +0.08σ DoD
+0.08σ vs own history — +6% change, now at 63th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.24
- fear z=+0.51
- frustration z=+0.22
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.33
- optimism z=-0.52
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.80
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -1.19σ DoD
-1.19σ vs own history — -13% change, now at 7th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.22
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.89
- frustration z=+1.37
- greed z=-0.07
- hope z=+1.42
- optimism z=-0.06
- panic z=+0.10
- skepticism z=-0.37
- uncertainty z=-0.70
AI_boom ↓ -1.02σ DoD
-1.02σ vs own history — -9% change, now at 31th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.31
- euphoria z=-0.78
- fear z=-0.88
- frustration z=+0.19
- greed z=+0.02
- hope z=-0.40
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.50
- uncertainty z=-0.79
technology_paradigm_shift ↓ -0.87σ DoD
-0.87σ vs own history — -7% change, now at 45th percentile; breadth 11 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.45
- euphoria z=-0.72
- fear z=-0.77
- frustration z=+0.43
- greed z=+0.25
- hope z=+0.02
- optimism z=-0.39
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.09
- uncertainty z=-0.46
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +1.19σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.19σ vs own history — +275% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.71
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.04
- frustration z=-0.47
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.23
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+3.12
- skepticism z=+0.23
- uncertainty z=-1.65
banking_crisis: +0.80σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.80σ vs own history — +58% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.01
- fear z=-1.15
- frustration z=+0.28
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.22
- optimism z=-1.37
- panic z=+3.61
- skepticism z=-0.95
- uncertainty z=-1.16
technology_paradigm_shift: +0.36σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.36σ vs own history — +49% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.59
- euphoria z=+0.89
- fear z=-0.68
- frustration z=-1.73
- greed z=+0.38
- hope z=+1.28
- optimism z=-2.77
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.02
- uncertainty z=+1.65
↓ Top Decreases
commodities_supercycle: -0.75σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.75σ vs own history — -9% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.11
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.44
- frustration z=-1.72
- greed z=+0.97
- hope z=+0.33
- optimism z=-1.50
- panic z=+0.46
- skepticism z=-1.11
- uncertainty z=-0.41
sector_rotation: -0.74σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.74σ vs own history — -17% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.85
- euphoria z=-0.09
- fear z=-1.64
- frustration z=+1.91
- greed z=-0.95
- hope z=+3.03
- optimism z=-4.11
- panic z=+1.35
- skepticism z=+0.33
- uncertainty z=-0.20
dollar_strength: -0.68σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.68σ vs own history — -13% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.92
- frustration z=+0.11
- greed z=+0.76
- hope z=+2.58
- optimism z=+1.34
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.77
- uncertainty z=-2.28
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.39
- fear z=-1.73
- frustration z=-0.71
- greed z=-1.38
- hope z=+0.67
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=+0.89
- skepticism z=-0.79
- uncertainty z=-1.39
stagflationp85
Attention is at the 85th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.96
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.79
- frustration z=-1.18
- greed z=-0.19
- hope z=+1.61
- optimism z=+0.57
- panic z=+0.78
- skepticism z=-1.17
- uncertainty z=-1.70
deglobalisationp85
Attention is at the 85th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.04
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.84
- frustration z=-0.96
- greed z=+0.49
- hope z=+0.01
- optimism z=-0.65
- panic z=+0.73
- skepticism z=+2.22
- uncertainty z=-1.34
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.38 — Skepticism z-score: +0.84.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.77.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.62), energy_insecurity (0.67), technology_paradigm_shift (0.35).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.004 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p22 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+275%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.38, regime_score=+1.39
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.0255 | -0.4611 | +0.0966 | 19th | 11 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.7372 | -0.1059 | -0.0809 | 22th | 11 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.1736 | -0.3773 | +1.7090 | 45th | 11 | |
| AI_boom | 4.6024 | -0.4524 | +1.2918 | 31th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.1137 | -0.3952 | +1.3433 | 41th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.7109 | -0.0359 | -0.3833 | 30th | 11 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.0592 | -0.3055 | -0.1294 | 4th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.3984 | -0.3712 | -0.4870 | 7th | 8 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.1857 | -0.0355 | +0.8032 | 96th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.0611 | -0.1263 | -0.5894 | 7th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.4380 | +4.5244 (+50.8%) | +4.5724 (+51.6%) |
| energy_insecurity | 9.6174 | +3.9150 (+68.7%) | +3.0551 (+46.6%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.5337 | +1.2838 (+24.5%) | +3.5444 (+118.6%) |
| AI_boom | 5.4762 | +0.6061 (+12.4%) | +2.4807 (+82.8%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.3619 | +2.2229 (+70.8%) | +1.3435 (+33.4%) |
| stagflation | 2.6078 | +0.6355 (+32.2%) | +2.1843 (+515.8%) |
| inflation | 4.9212 | +0.4837 (+10.9%) | +2.0940 (+74.1%) |
| banking_crisis | 3.1168 | +0.2056 (+7.1%) | +1.6938 (+119.0%) |
| defense_rearmament | 2.6464 | +0.6583 (+33.1%) | +1.0398 (+64.7%) |
| crypto_adoption | 3.6264 | +0.7094 (+24.3%) | +0.8448 (+30.4%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stagflation | acceleration | 1.569 | 0.657 | 0.369 | 0.705 | 0.205 | 0.090 |
| banking_crisis | crowding | 1.552 | 0.707 | 0.406 | 0.760 | 0.074 | 0.166 |
| commodities_supercycle | exhaustion | 1.317 | 0.510 | 0.337 | 0.387 | 0.458 | 0.155 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 1.190 | 0.522 | 0.389 | 0.597 | 0.381 | 0.022 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 1.157 | 0.576 | 0.448 | 0.697 | 0.277 | 0.025 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 1.118 | 0.450 | 0.352 | 0.266 | 0.628 | 0.106 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 1.118 | 0.534 | 0.428 | 0.392 | 0.487 | 0.121 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 1.105 | 0.460 | 0.366 | 0.284 | 0.603 | 0.113 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | exhaustion | 1.078 | 0.476 | 0.392 | 0.258 | 0.639 | 0.103 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 1.037 | 0.579 | 0.508 | 0.371 | 0.481 | 0.148 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 0.906 | 0.476 | 0.475 | 0.333 | 0.595 | 0.073 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.824 | 0.433 | 0.476 | 0.233 | 0.716 | 0.051 |
| demographic_shift | exhaustion | 0.810 | 0.497 | 0.563 | 0.579 | 0.421 | 0.000 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.784 | 0.371 | 0.423 | 0.236 | 0.734 | 0.030 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.778 | 0.473 | 0.558 | 0.399 | 0.601 | 0.000 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.764 | 0.424 | 0.505 | 0.420 | 0.580 | 0.000 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.685 | 0.384 | 0.511 | 0.298 | 0.702 | 0.000 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.587 | 0.365 | 0.571 | 0.217 | 0.755 | 0.028 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.550 | 0.324 | 0.539 | 0.204 | 0.796 | 0.000 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.491 | 0.281 | 0.523 | 0.362 | 0.638 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
177 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-12 16:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.29
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -1.196 | -0.478 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.376 | -0.413 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.567 | -0.157 |
| Average Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.220 | -0.244 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.