Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-31 (built 22:15 UTC), 330 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.51
- euphoria z=+0.24
- fear z=-1.83
- frustration z=-1.45
- greed z=-0.51
- hope z=+0.60
- optimism z=+1.25
- panic z=+1.10
- skepticism z=+0.41
- uncertainty z=-1.42
2. energy_insecurity fear ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-0.94
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-2.63
- frustration z=-0.95
- greed z=-0.75
- hope z=+0.58
- optimism z=+0.72
- panic z=+1.42
- skepticism z=+0.20
- uncertainty z=-2.40
3. technology_paradigm_shift fear ↑
- confidence z=+0.40
- euphoria z=+1.01
- fear z=+1.56
- frustration z=-0.58
- greed z=-1.49
- hope z=-0.17
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=+0.71
- skepticism z=-0.40
- uncertainty z=-0.60
4. crypto_adoption uncertainty ↓ hope ↓
- confidence z=+0.52
- euphoria z=+0.95
- fear z=-1.22
- frustration z=-0.05
- greed z=-0.87
- hope z=-1.71
- optimism z=-0.79
- panic z=+1.47
- skepticism z=-0.76
- uncertainty z=-1.81
5. AI_boom panic ↑
- confidence z=+0.65
- euphoria z=+0.77
- fear z=-0.28
- frustration z=-1.41
- greed z=-0.89
- hope z=-0.39
- optimism z=-0.23
- panic z=+1.78
- skepticism z=+1.05
- uncertainty z=-0.61
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
defense_rearmament ↑ +1.39σ DoD
+1.39σ vs own history — +30% change, now at 76th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.61
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.36
- frustration z=-0.04
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-2.77
- optimism z=+0.96
- panic z=-0.39
- skepticism z=+0.28
- uncertainty z=-2.00
dollar_strength ↑ +0.96σ DoD
+0.96σ vs own history — +54% change, now at 93th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.38
- fear z=-1.03
- frustration z=+0.26
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.73
- skepticism z=-0.51
- uncertainty z=-0.39
crypto_adoption ↑ +0.70σ DoD
+0.70σ vs own history — +21% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.46
- euphoria z=-0.38
- fear z=-2.57
- frustration z=-0.76
- greed z=-1.31
- hope z=-1.39
- optimism z=-0.10
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.06
- uncertainty z=-1.20
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -1.56σ DoD
-1.56σ vs own history — -22% change, now at 57th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.10
- euphoria z=+0.42
- fear z=-0.16
- frustration z=-0.66
- greed z=-0.97
- hope z=-0.65
- optimism z=-1.68
- panic z=+0.04
- skepticism z=+1.03
- uncertainty z=-0.82
demographic_shift ↓ -1.43σ DoD
-1.43σ vs own history — -62% change, now at 27th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.07
- fear z=-1.05
- frustration z=-1.07
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.10
- optimism z=-0.69
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.59
- uncertainty z=-0.61
banking_crisis ↓ -1.30σ DoD
-1.30σ vs own history — -24% change, now at 54th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.51
- fear z=-2.60
- frustration z=-0.98
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.90
- optimism z=+0.33
- panic z=-0.35
- skepticism z=-0.45
- uncertainty z=-2.29
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
deglobalisation: +0.54σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.54σ vs own history — +296% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.35
- frustration z=-0.38
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.91
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.45
- uncertainty z=-2.21
fed_pivot: +0.28σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.28σ vs own history — +104% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.25
- euphoria z=-1.12
- fear z=-0.60
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=-1.21
- hope z=-0.54
- optimism z=+1.02
- panic z=-1.21
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.96
interest_rate_insecurity: +0.19σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.19σ vs own history — +76% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.79
- euphoria z=+0.38
- fear z=-2.51
- frustration z=+0.91
- greed z=-1.71
- hope z=+1.15
- optimism z=+0.94
- panic z=+2.16
- skepticism z=+0.98
- uncertainty z=-1.13
↓ Top Decreases
banking_crisis: -1.82σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.82σ vs own history — -36% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.11
- fear z=-3.25
- frustration z=-2.79
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.72
- optimism z=+0.67
- panic z=-1.13
- skepticism z=-0.62
- uncertainty z=-2.05
demographic_shift: -1.69σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.69σ vs own history — -67% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.87
- fear z=-3.24
- frustration z=-1.94
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.22
- optimism z=-1.48
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.21
- uncertainty z=-2.18
commodities_supercycle: -1.36σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.36σ vs own history — -30% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.15
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.14
- frustration z=-2.59
- greed z=-1.20
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-0.30
- panic z=+1.66
- skepticism z=-0.85
- uncertainty z=-0.91
Narratives to Look Out For
crypto_adoptionp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.52
- euphoria z=+0.95
- fear z=-1.22
- frustration z=-0.05
- greed z=-0.87
- hope z=-1.71
- optimism z=-0.79
- panic z=+1.47
- skepticism z=-0.76
- uncertainty z=-1.81
dollar_strengthp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.24
- fear z=+0.10
- frustration z=-1.59
- greed z=+0.41
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=+0.51
- panic z=+2.18
- skepticism z=+0.55
- uncertainty z=+0.78
fed_pivotp82
Attention is at the 82th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.60
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.23
- frustration z=+0.83
- greed z=-0.39
- hope z=+0.28
- optimism z=+0.75
- panic z=+0.13
- skepticism z=-0.59
- uncertainty z=+0.08
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.42 — Skepticism z-score: -0.43.
Fear most concentrated in fed_pivot
Average fear score for fed_pivot: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.64), energy_insecurity (0.61), technology_paradigm_shift (0.64).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.004 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p76 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch deglobalisation: WoW rising (+296%)
If trend continues → domestic equity bias, supply-chain plays.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.42, regime_score=-0.31
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.7134 | +0.2185 | -1.5075 | 76th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.8960 | +0.2947 | -0.2443 | 76th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.9105 | +0.8633 | +0.4226 | 100th | 7 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.6660 | +0.2939 | +0.6383 | 67th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 4.1826 | -0.7272 | +0.8160 | 66th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.5350 | -0.8479 | -1.5463 | 52th | 7 | |
| inflation | 3.4449 | -0.7877 | +0.9479 | 59th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.3110 | -0.9610 | +0.0739 | 57th | 8 | |
| recession | 3.2999 | -0.3211 | +0.2325 | 61th | 9 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.9719 | -0.7928 | +1.2816 | 77th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-31
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| crypto_adoption | 4.9105 | +0.8633 (+21.3%) | +0.4226 (+9.4%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.6660 | +0.2939 (+6.7%) | +0.6383 (+15.8%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.9719 | -0.7928 (-21.1%) | +1.2816 (+75.8%) |
| inflation | 3.4449 | -0.7877 (-18.6%) | +0.9479 (+38.0%) |
| stagflation | 1.3326 | -0.0291 (-2.1%) | +0.3982 (+42.6%) |
| AI_boom | 4.1826 | -0.7272 (-14.8%) | +0.8160 (+24.2%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.2720 | -0.6924 (-35.2%) | +0.6471 (+103.6%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.9525 | +0.3350 (+54.2%) | -0.0653 (-6.4%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.2976 | -0.1328 (-30.9%) | +0.2223 (+295.6%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.8186 | +0.4199 (+30.0%) | -0.1926 (-9.6%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
130 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-31 22:00 UTC