Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-02 (built 16:15 UTC), 277 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=+1.33
- euphoria z=+1.25
- fear z=-1.04
- frustration z=-0.60
- greed z=+0.74
- hope z=+0.53
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=-0.32
- skepticism z=-0.81
- uncertainty z=-0.20
2. energy_insecurity
- confidence z=+1.07
- euphoria z=+1.01
- fear z=-1.49
- frustration z=+0.89
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+1.24
- optimism z=-0.95
- panic z=-0.62
- skepticism z=-1.31
- uncertainty z=-0.83
3. technology_paradigm_shift fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.74
- euphoria z=-0.28
- fear z=-1.67
- frustration z=-0.39
- greed z=+1.26
- hope z=+0.76
- optimism z=+0.37
- panic z=+0.63
- skepticism z=+0.38
- uncertainty z=-1.11
4. AI_boom
- confidence z=+0.41
- euphoria z=-1.48
- fear z=-0.92
- frustration z=-0.08
- greed z=+0.31
- hope z=+0.61
- optimism z=+0.17
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+1.12
- uncertainty z=-0.53
5. commodities_supercycle optimism ↓ panic ↓
- confidence z=+0.97
- euphoria z=+0.98
- fear z=-0.93
- frustration z=+0.89
- greed z=+0.72
- hope z=-0.24
- optimism z=-2.49
- panic z=-1.64
- skepticism z=-1.18
- uncertainty z=-0.61
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism ↑ +5.09σ DoD
+5.09σ vs own history — +1758% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+1.41
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=+1.41
eu_us_relations ↑ +5.08σ DoD
+5.08σ vs own history — +1199% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=+1.41
commodities_supercycle ↑ +2.43σ DoD
+2.43σ vs own history — +113% change, now at 91th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.69
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.11
- frustration z=+1.55
- greed z=+3.07
- hope z=+0.62
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=-1.98
- skepticism z=-1.77
- uncertainty z=+0.80
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation ↓ -0.23σ DoD
-0.23σ vs own history — -40% change, now at 34th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.45
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.31
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.62
- uncertainty z=-1.48
interest_rate_insecurity ↓ -0.23σ DoD
-0.23σ vs own history — -14% change, now at 33th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.49
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.21
- frustration z=-1.07
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.51
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=-1.90
- skepticism z=-1.59
- uncertainty z=+0.65
housing_bubble ↓ -0.21σ DoD
-0.21σ vs own history — -9% change, now at 58th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.04
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.66
- optimism z=-0.62
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.14
- uncertainty z=+0.29
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism: +4.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.47σ vs own history — +116124279965% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +4.46σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.46σ vs own history — +64950868455% change over the last 3 days.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
dollar_strength: +0.96σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.96σ vs own history — +317% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.13
- frustration z=-1.49
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.81
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.53
- uncertainty z=-0.82
↓ Top Decreases
housing_bubble: -1.34σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.34σ vs own history — -46% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.48
- fear z=-1.18
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-3.11
- optimism z=+0.06
- panic z=+1.79
- skepticism z=-0.84
- uncertainty z=-0.68
stagflation: -0.74σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.74σ vs own history — -33% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.89
- frustration z=-1.91
- greed z=+1.81
- hope z=-2.63
- optimism z=-1.94
- panic z=+1.87
- skepticism z=-0.34
- uncertainty z=+0.56
interest_rate_insecurity: -0.69σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.69σ vs own history — -38% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.14
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.68
- frustration z=-1.26
- greed z=+0.23
- hope z=+0.33
- optimism z=+0.40
- panic z=-1.35
- skepticism z=-2.36
- uncertainty z=+0.01
Narratives to Look Out For
geopolitical_riskp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.33
- euphoria z=+1.25
- fear z=-1.04
- frustration z=-0.60
- greed z=+0.74
- hope z=+0.53
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=-0.32
- skepticism z=-0.81
- uncertainty z=-0.20
energy_insecurityp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.07
- euphoria z=+1.01
- fear z=-1.49
- frustration z=+0.89
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+1.24
- optimism z=-0.95
- panic z=-0.62
- skepticism z=-1.31
- uncertainty z=-0.83
AI_boomp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.41
- euphoria z=-1.48
- fear z=-0.92
- frustration z=-0.08
- greed z=+0.31
- hope z=+0.61
- optimism z=+0.17
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+1.12
- uncertainty z=-0.53
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.06 — Skepticism z-score: -0.49.
Fear most concentrated in inflation
Average fear score for inflation: 0.74.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.63), energy_insecurity (0.64), technology_paradigm_shift (0.46).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.019 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
inflation (-2.7%), recession (-2.6%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch trade_protectionism: WoW rising (+116124279965%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.06, regime_score=-1.69
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.6010 | +5.0295 | +3.8776 | 100th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 10.7276 | +3.7389 | +2.7360 | 100th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.6305 | +2.1854 | +1.4797 | 95th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 6.5744 | +2.6981 | +2.4138 | 100th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.9302 | +3.1441 | +0.6608 | 91th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.9126 | +0.6843 | +0.4257 | 100th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 4.0641 | +0.6859 | +0.5672 | 80th | 9 | |
| recession | 3.5418 | +0.2140 | -0.2603 | 69th | 10 | |
| inflation | 2.8094 | +0.3138 | -0.7196 | 55th | 9 | |
| defense_rearmament | 1.8942 | +0.3068 | +0.3996 | 79th | 6 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-02
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.5803 | +5.0088 (+47.4%) | +3.8569 (+32.9%) |
| energy_insecurity | 10.7134 | +3.7247 (+53.3%) | +2.7218 (+34.1%) |
| AI_boom | 6.5657 | +2.6894 (+69.4%) | +2.4051 (+57.8%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.6217 | +2.1766 (+49.0%) | +1.4709 (+28.6%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.9223 | +3.1362 (+112.6%) | +0.6530 (+12.4%) |
| trade_protectionism | 1.1597 | +1.0972 (+1755.5%) | +1.1597 (+115970183403.5%) |
| energy_transition | 1.2652 | +0.4521 (+55.6%) | +0.8283 (+189.6%) |
| eu_us_relations | 0.6486 | +0.5986 (+1197.3%) | +0.6486 (+64864678852.8%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.0587 | +0.6805 (+20.1%) | +0.5618 (+16.1%) |
| crypto_adoption | 4.9061 | +0.6778 (+16.0%) | +0.4192 (+9.3%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
137 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-02 16:00 UTC