Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-09 (built 04:15 UTC), 187 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.25
- euphoria z=+0.26
- fear z=-1.61
- frustration z=+0.11
- greed z=+0.16
- hope z=+0.89
- optimism z=+0.38
- panic z=+0.14
- skepticism z=-0.72
- uncertainty z=-1.17
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.17
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-1.54
- frustration z=-0.77
- greed z=+0.42
- hope z=+0.51
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=-0.13
- skepticism z=-1.04
- uncertainty z=-1.14
3. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.61
- euphoria z=-0.11
- fear z=-1.93
- frustration z=-1.54
- greed z=+0.54
- hope z=+1.30
- optimism z=+0.69
- panic z=-0.95
- skepticism z=-0.62
- uncertainty z=-1.33
4. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=+0.70
- euphoria z=+1.25
- fear z=-1.01
- frustration z=-0.62
- greed z=+0.79
- hope z=+0.29
- optimism z=+0.45
- panic z=+0.81
- skepticism z=-0.80
- uncertainty z=-0.10
5. AI_boom euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.54
- euphoria z=+1.54
- fear z=-0.31
- frustration z=-0.73
- greed z=+0.41
- hope z=-0.09
- optimism z=-0.92
- panic z=+1.07
- skepticism z=-0.49
- uncertainty z=+0.51
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear ↑ +2.15σ DoD
+2.15σ vs own history — +53% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- fear z=-1.41
- frustration z=+1.41
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=-1.41
↓ Top Decreases
geopolitical_risk ↓ -0.78σ DoD
-0.78σ vs own history — -3% change, now at 22th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.03
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.05
- frustration z=+0.10
- greed z=+0.10
- hope z=-0.04
- optimism z=-0.06
- panic z=-0.06
- skepticism z=+0.17
- uncertainty z=+0.02
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.75σ DoD
-0.75σ vs own history — -4% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.01
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.04
- frustration z=+0.19
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.00
- optimism z=-0.04
- panic z=-0.16
- skepticism z=+0.12
- uncertainty z=+0.11
energy_insecurity ↓ -0.72σ DoD
-0.72σ vs own history — -3% change, now at 19th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.11
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.11
- frustration z=+0.06
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.06
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-0.12
- skepticism z=+0.13
- uncertainty z=+0.01
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear: +3.71σ WoW — trend accelerating
+3.71σ vs own history — +8573456641% change over the last 3 days.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
demographic_shift: +1.04σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.04σ vs own history — +186% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+2.73
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.33
- optimism z=+2.25
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.31
- uncertainty z=-0.14
trade_protectionism: +0.75σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.75σ vs own history — +103% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.31
- fear z=+0.80
- frustration z=-1.64
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.42
- optimism z=+1.68
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.23
- uncertainty z=-0.26
↓ Top Decreases
AI_boom: -0.92σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.92σ vs own history — -23% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.03
- euphoria z=+2.26
- fear z=+0.71
- frustration z=+0.08
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+0.05
- optimism z=-0.94
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.81
- uncertainty z=+1.79
ex_usa_trade: -0.86σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.86σ vs own history — -36% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.06
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.61
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.31
- optimism z=-0.61
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.88
- uncertainty z=-0.90
crypto_adoption: -0.86σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.86σ vs own history — -12% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.49
- euphoria z=+2.03
- fear z=+1.05
- frustration z=-1.85
- greed z=-0.21
- hope z=-2.40
- optimism z=-1.52
- panic z=-2.40
- skepticism z=-0.64
- uncertainty z=+0.48
Narratives to Look Out For
eu_us_relationsp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.26
- fear z=+1.24
- frustration z=+1.04
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.06
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.72
- uncertainty z=+0.10
luddite_fearp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- fear z=-0.71
- frustration z=+0.71
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=-0.71
energy_insecurityp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-2.17
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-1.54
- frustration z=-0.77
- greed z=+0.42
- hope z=+0.51
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=-0.13
- skepticism z=-1.04
- uncertainty z=-1.14
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.12 — Skepticism z-score: -0.14.
Fear most concentrated in energy_transition
Average fear score for energy_transition: 0.60.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.53), energy_insecurity (0.54), commodities_supercycle (0.55).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.013 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p89 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch luddite_fear: WoW rising (+8573456641%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.12, regime_score=-0.66
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 12.7234 | -0.4600 | +1.1493 | 22th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.7844 | -0.2970 | +1.0296 | 19th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.6529 | -0.1527 | +0.6306 | 23th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.1985 | -0.1392 | -0.6533 | 15th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.6959 | -0.1009 | -0.5024 | 4th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.5489 | -0.1650 | +0.8042 | 19th | 8 | |
| AI_boom | 3.5223 | -0.1069 | -1.0329 | 12th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.0334 | -0.1269 | -0.3555 | 19th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.5050 | -0.1434 | -0.6274 | 15th | 9 | |
| trade_protectionism | 1.5987 | -0.0169 | +0.8128 | 67th | 8 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-09
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 44.7134 | +29.2731 (+189.6%) | +32.4745 (+265.3%) |
| energy_insecurity | 32.0592 | +21.2115 (+195.5%) | +23.8490 (+290.5%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 17.2469 | +11.9420 (+225.1%) | +12.5670 (+268.5%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 15.4800 | +11.3159 (+271.8%) | +10.2630 (+196.7%) |
| crypto_adoption | 14.8758 | +10.5026 (+240.2%) | +10.7862 (+263.7%) |
| AI_boom | 13.5586 | +10.2561 (+310.6%) | +8.5764 (+172.1%) |
| inflation | 10.3580 | +6.5684 (+173.3%) | +8.0971 (+358.1%) |
| sector_rotation | 9.6659 | +6.7068 (+226.7%) | +6.4846 (+203.8%) |
| eu_us_relations | 7.5154 | +6.4676 (+617.2%) | +6.6354 (+754.0%) |
| trade_protectionism | 7.9736 | +5.7784 (+263.2%) | +6.4330 (+417.6%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
163 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-09 04:00 UTC