Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-13 (built 16:15 UTC), 291 posts today across 11 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.01
- euphoria z=+0.73
- fear z=-1.08
- frustration z=-1.20
- greed z=-0.73
- hope z=-0.05
- optimism z=-0.97
- panic z=+1.37
- skepticism z=-1.20
- uncertainty z=-1.99
2. energy_insecurity frustration ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-1.57
- euphoria z=+0.47
- fear z=-0.93
- frustration z=-1.82
- greed z=-1.30
- hope z=-1.08
- optimism z=-1.28
- panic z=+1.10
- skepticism z=-1.54
- uncertainty z=-1.19
3. technology_paradigm_shift fear ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.25
- euphoria z=+1.29
- fear z=-2.83
- frustration z=-0.15
- greed z=+0.30
- hope z=+0.25
- optimism z=-2.11
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=+0.98
- uncertainty z=-0.74
4. AI_boom fear ↓ euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-1.40
- euphoria z=+1.65
- fear z=-2.18
- frustration z=-1.00
- greed z=-0.38
- hope z=-0.63
- optimism z=-1.64
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.07
- uncertainty z=-0.96
5. commodities_supercycle hope ↑ skepticism ↓
- confidence z=-1.58
- euphoria z=+0.26
- fear z=-0.82
- frustration z=-1.67
- greed z=+0.11
- hope z=+2.12
- optimism z=-0.78
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=-1.74
- uncertainty z=-0.85
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
housing_bubble ↑ +0.48σ DoD
+0.48σ vs own history — +34% change, now at 56th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.03
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.49
- optimism z=+0.66
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.10
- uncertainty z=-0.13
ex_usa_trade ↑ +0.07σ DoD
+0.07σ vs own history — +1% change, now at 29th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.56
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.49
- frustration z=+0.51
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.64
- optimism z=+1.11
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.35
- uncertainty z=+0.31
commodities_supercycle ↑ +0.04σ DoD
+0.04σ vs own history — +2% change, now at 54th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.02
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.28
- frustration z=+0.07
- greed z=-0.44
- hope z=+1.53
- optimism z=+0.58
- panic z=+0.20
- skepticism z=+0.04
- uncertainty z=+0.32
↓ Top Decreases
technology_paradigm_shift ↓ -1.03σ DoD
-1.03σ vs own history — -9% change, now at 18th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.30
- euphoria z=+0.42
- fear z=-0.92
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=+0.02
- hope z=+0.08
- optimism z=-0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.60
- uncertainty z=-0.11
AI_boom ↓ -0.97σ DoD
-0.97σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.11
- euphoria z=+0.70
- fear z=+0.21
- frustration z=-0.25
- greed z=-0.14
- hope z=-0.31
- optimism z=+0.08
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.13
- uncertainty z=+0.03
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.84σ DoD
-0.84σ vs own history — -6% change, now at 39th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.06
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.01
- frustration z=+0.41
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=-0.10
- optimism z=+0.18
- panic z=+1.06
- skepticism z=-0.03
- uncertainty z=-0.22
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
demographic_shift: +1.30σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.30σ vs own history — +64% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.34
- fear z=+0.43
- frustration z=+3.13
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.70
- uncertainty z=+1.40
stagflation: +1.10σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.10σ vs own history — +108% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.88
- frustration z=+0.34
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.82
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.13
- uncertainty z=-0.71
banking_crisis: +0.99σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.99σ vs own history — +39% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.81
- fear z=-1.62
- frustration z=+0.34
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.53
- optimism z=-1.37
- panic z=+2.47
- skepticism z=-1.59
- uncertainty z=-1.02
↓ Top Decreases
dollar_strength: -2.32σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.32σ vs own history — -67% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.75
- fear z=-1.80
- frustration z=+0.80
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.38
- optimism z=-0.77
- panic z=-0.16
- skepticism z=-1.91
- uncertainty z=-1.63
energy_transition: -1.08σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.08σ vs own history — -40% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.86
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.38
- frustration z=+0.56
- greed z=+0.13
- hope z=-0.38
- optimism z=+0.22
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.19
- uncertainty z=-0.99
sector_rotation: -0.99σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.99σ vs own history — -29% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.29
- euphoria z=+0.46
- fear z=-2.21
- frustration z=+0.99
- greed z=-0.84
- hope z=+0.92
- optimism z=-1.36
- panic z=+1.18
- skepticism z=-1.47
- uncertainty z=-0.63
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.54
- fear z=-1.70
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=-1.38
- hope z=+0.04
- optimism z=-0.83
- panic z=+0.94
- skepticism z=-1.01
- uncertainty z=-1.38
demographic_shiftp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.40
- fear z=-0.66
- frustration z=+0.43
- greed z=+1.09
- hope z=+0.68
- optimism z=-0.03
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.03
- uncertainty z=-0.31
stagflationp75
Attention is at the 75th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.01
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.19
- frustration z=-0.95
- greed z=-0.19
- hope z=+1.81
- optimism z=+0.95
- panic z=+1.16
- skepticism z=-0.87
- uncertainty z=-1.56
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.24 — Skepticism z-score: +0.31.
Fear most concentrated in recession
Average fear score for recession: 0.66.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.58), energy_insecurity (0.58), technology_paradigm_shift (0.38).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.005 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p32 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch demographic_shift: WoW rising (+64%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.24, regime_score=+0.30
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.5000 | +0.1364 | -0.6771 | 39th | 11 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.1180 | +0.0822 | -0.6922 | 50th | 11 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.7221 | -0.4588 | +0.7142 | 18th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 4.0598 | -0.4411 | +0.4047 | 11th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.0192 | +0.0822 | -0.6828 | 54th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.6381 | -0.3908 | +0.0288 | 29th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.9912 | -0.1249 | +0.0098 | 4th | 7 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.2966 | +0.0132 | +0.6416 | 93th | 11 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.2414 | -0.0767 | -0.9345 | 11th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.2206 | +0.0012 | -0.6868 | 18th | 7 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-13
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.8544 | +5.6138 (+54.8%) | +3.4292 (+27.6%) |
| energy_insecurity | 10.7183 | +3.4897 (+48.3%) | +1.9159 (+21.8%) |
| banking_crisis | 3.4200 | +1.0745 (+45.8%) | +1.4926 (+77.4%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 6.1552 | +2.0280 (+49.1%) | +0.8454 (+15.9%) |
| crypto_adoption | 4.0455 | +1.1781 (+41.1%) | +1.2713 (+45.8%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.6336 | +0.8229 (+17.1%) | +1.0827 (+23.8%) |
| stagflation | 2.2962 | +0.3911 (+20.5%) | +1.0722 (+87.6%) |
| AI_boom | 4.7093 | +0.7623 (+19.3%) | +0.7097 (+17.7%) |
| defense_rearmament | 2.3612 | +0.3893 (+19.7%) | +0.6864 (+41.0%) |
| recession | 3.2733 | +1.0219 (+45.4%) | +0.1091 (+3.4%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-13
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | emergence | 1.819 | 0.745 | 0.360 | 0.743 | 0.000 | 0.297 |
| commodities_supercycle | crowding | 1.489 | 0.612 | 0.361 | 0.589 | 0.228 | 0.182 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 1.411 | 0.565 | 0.350 | 0.473 | 0.338 | 0.189 |
| geopolitical_risk | crowding | 1.362 | 0.561 | 0.362 | 0.422 | 0.409 | 0.169 |
| stagflation | crowding | 1.303 | 0.605 | 0.414 | 0.636 | 0.341 | 0.023 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | crowding | 1.202 | 0.496 | 0.363 | 0.266 | 0.627 | 0.107 |
| demographic_shift | emergence | 1.142 | 0.628 | 0.500 | 0.750 | 0.250 | 0.000 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 0.997 | 0.487 | 0.438 | 0.356 | 0.567 | 0.078 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.928 | 0.510 | 0.500 | 0.543 | 0.457 | 0.000 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 0.891 | 0.487 | 0.497 | 0.497 | 0.485 | 0.018 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.851 | 0.444 | 0.472 | 0.321 | 0.668 | 0.012 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.820 | 0.436 | 0.482 | 0.361 | 0.639 | 0.000 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.817 | 0.459 | 0.512 | 0.235 | 0.713 | 0.051 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.811 | 0.383 | 0.423 | 0.392 | 0.594 | 0.014 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 0.782 | 0.407 | 0.471 | 0.227 | 0.744 | 0.029 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.739 | 0.397 | 0.487 | 0.290 | 0.673 | 0.037 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.730 | 0.353 | 0.434 | 0.276 | 0.724 | 0.000 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.728 | 0.398 | 0.496 | 0.304 | 0.696 | 0.000 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.693 | 0.378 | 0.496 | 0.182 | 0.811 | 0.007 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.412 | 0.257 | 0.574 | 0.320 | 0.680 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
181 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-13 16:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.08
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -0.725 | -0.290 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.238 | -0.371 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.512 | -0.151 |
| Average Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.325 | -0.265 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.