📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-03-31 22:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-03-31 (built 22:15 UTC), 330 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   fear 
  •  confidence z=-0.51
  •  euphoria z=+0.24
  •  fear z=-1.83
  •  frustration z=-1.45
  •  greed z=-0.51
  •  hope z=+0.60
  •  optimism z=+1.25
  •  panic z=+1.10
  •  skepticism z=+0.41
  •  uncertainty z=-1.42
2. energy_insecurity   fear    uncertainty 
  •  confidence z=-0.94
  •  euphoria z=+1.02
  •  fear z=-2.63
  •  frustration z=-0.95
  •  greed z=-0.75
  •  hope z=+0.58
  •  optimism z=+0.72
  •  panic z=+1.42
  •  skepticism z=+0.20
  •  uncertainty z=-2.40
3. technology_paradigm_shift   fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.40
  •  euphoria z=+1.01
  •  fear z=+1.56
  •  frustration z=-0.58
  •  greed z=-1.49
  •  hope z=-0.17
  •  optimism z=-0.14
  •  panic z=+0.71
  •  skepticism z=-0.40
  •  uncertainty z=-0.60
4. crypto_adoption   uncertainty    hope 
  •  confidence z=+0.52
  •  euphoria z=+0.95
  •  fear z=-1.22
  •  frustration z=-0.05
  •  greed z=-0.87
  •  hope z=-1.71
  •  optimism z=-0.79
  •  panic z=+1.47
  •  skepticism z=-0.76
  •  uncertainty z=-1.81
5. AI_boom   panic 
  •  confidence z=+0.65
  •  euphoria z=+0.77
  •  fear z=-0.28
  •  frustration z=-1.41
  •  greed z=-0.89
  •  hope z=-0.39
  •  optimism z=-0.23
  •  panic z=+1.78
  •  skepticism z=+1.05
  •  uncertainty z=-0.61

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

defense_rearmament +1.39σ DoD
+1.39σ vs own history — +30% change, now at 76th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+1.61
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.36
  •  frustration z=-0.04
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-2.77
  •  optimism z=+0.96
  •  panic z=-0.39
  •  skepticism z=+0.28
  •  uncertainty z=-2.00
dollar_strength +0.96σ DoD
+0.96σ vs own history — +54% change, now at 93th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.38
  •  fear z=-1.03
  •  frustration z=+0.26
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.73
  •  skepticism z=-0.51
  •  uncertainty z=-0.39
crypto_adoption +0.70σ DoD
+0.70σ vs own history — +21% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-1.46
  •  euphoria z=-0.38
  •  fear z=-2.57
  •  frustration z=-0.76
  •  greed z=-1.31
  •  hope z=-1.39
  •  optimism z=-0.10
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.06
  •  uncertainty z=-1.20

↓ Top Decreases

sector_rotation -1.56σ DoD
-1.56σ vs own history — -22% change, now at 57th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-1.10
  •  euphoria z=+0.42
  •  fear z=-0.16
  •  frustration z=-0.66
  •  greed z=-0.97
  •  hope z=-0.65
  •  optimism z=-1.68
  •  panic z=+0.04
  •  skepticism z=+1.03
  •  uncertainty z=-0.82
demographic_shift -1.43σ DoD
-1.43σ vs own history — -62% change, now at 27th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-1.07
  •  fear z=-1.05
  •  frustration z=-1.07
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.10
  •  optimism z=-0.69
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.59
  •  uncertainty z=-0.61
banking_crisis -1.30σ DoD
-1.30σ vs own history — -24% change, now at 54th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+1.51
  •  fear z=-2.60
  •  frustration z=-0.98
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.90
  •  optimism z=+0.33
  •  panic z=-0.35
  •  skepticism z=-0.45
  •  uncertainty z=-2.29

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

deglobalisation: +0.54σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.54σ vs own history — +296% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.35
  •  frustration z=-0.38
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-1.91
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.45
  •  uncertainty z=-2.21
fed_pivot: +0.28σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.28σ vs own history — +104% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.25
  •  euphoria z=-1.12
  •  fear z=-0.60
  •  frustration z=-0.51
  •  greed z=-1.21
  •  hope z=-0.54
  •  optimism z=+1.02
  •  panic z=-1.21
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=-0.96
interest_rate_insecurity: +0.19σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.19σ vs own history — +76% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.79
  •  euphoria z=+0.38
  •  fear z=-2.51
  •  frustration z=+0.91
  •  greed z=-1.71
  •  hope z=+1.15
  •  optimism z=+0.94
  •  panic z=+2.16
  •  skepticism z=+0.98
  •  uncertainty z=-1.13

↓ Top Decreases

banking_crisis: -1.82σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.82σ vs own history — -36% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.11
  •  fear z=-3.25
  •  frustration z=-2.79
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+1.72
  •  optimism z=+0.67
  •  panic z=-1.13
  •  skepticism z=-0.62
  •  uncertainty z=-2.05
demographic_shift: -1.69σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.69σ vs own history — -67% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.87
  •  fear z=-3.24
  •  frustration z=-1.94
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-1.22
  •  optimism z=-1.48
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.21
  •  uncertainty z=-2.18
commodities_supercycle: -1.36σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.36σ vs own history — -30% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.15
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.14
  •  frustration z=-2.59
  •  greed z=-1.20
  •  hope z=-0.03
  •  optimism z=-0.30
  •  panic z=+1.66
  •  skepticism z=-0.85
  •  uncertainty z=-0.91

Narratives to Look Out For

crypto_adoptionp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.52
  •  euphoria z=+0.95
  •  fear z=-1.22
  •  frustration z=-0.05
  •  greed z=-0.87
  •  hope z=-1.71
  •  optimism z=-0.79
  •  panic z=+1.47
  •  skepticism z=-0.76
  •  uncertainty z=-1.81
dollar_strengthp93

Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.24
  •  fear z=+0.10
  •  frustration z=-1.59
  •  greed z=+0.41
  •  hope z=+0.64
  •  optimism z=+0.51
  •  panic z=+2.18
  •  skepticism z=+0.55
  •  uncertainty z=+0.78
fed_pivotp82

Attention is at the 82th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.60
  •  euphoria z=-1.24
  •  fear z=+0.23
  •  frustration z=+0.83
  •  greed z=-0.39
  •  hope z=+0.28
  •  optimism z=+0.75
  •  panic z=+0.13
  •  skepticism z=-0.59
  •  uncertainty z=+0.08

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.42 — Skepticism z-score: -0.43.
Fear most concentrated in fed_pivot
Average fear score for fed_pivot: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.64), energy_insecurity (0.61), technology_paradigm_shift (0.64).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.004 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p76 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch deglobalisation: WoW rising (+296%)
If trend continues → domestic equity bias, supply-chain plays.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-2.42, regime_score=-0.31

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk11.7134+0.2185-1.507576th10
energy_insecurity7.8960+0.2947-0.244376th9
crypto_adoption4.9105+0.8633+0.4226100th7
technology_paradigm_shift4.6660+0.2939+0.638367th9
AI_boom4.1826-0.7272+0.816066th8
commodities_supercycle3.5350-0.8479-1.546352th7
inflation3.4449-0.7877+0.947959th9
sector_rotation3.3110-0.9610+0.073957th8
recession3.2999-0.3211+0.232561th9
interest_rate_insecurity2.9719-0.7928+1.281677th10

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-31

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
crypto_adoption4.9105+0.8633 (+21.3%)+0.4226 (+9.4%)
technology_paradigm_shift4.6660+0.2939 (+6.7%)+0.6383 (+15.8%)
interest_rate_insecurity2.9719-0.7928 (-21.1%)+1.2816 (+75.8%)
inflation3.4449-0.7877 (-18.6%)+0.9479 (+38.0%)
stagflation1.3326-0.0291 (-2.1%)+0.3982 (+42.6%)
AI_boom4.1826-0.7272 (-14.8%)+0.8160 (+24.2%)
fed_pivot1.2720-0.6924 (-35.2%)+0.6471 (+103.6%)
dollar_strength0.9525+0.3350 (+54.2%)-0.0653 (-6.4%)
deglobalisation0.2976-0.1328 (-30.9%)+0.2223 (+295.6%)
defense_rearmament1.8186+0.4199 (+30.0%)-0.1926 (-9.6%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

130 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-03-31 22:00 UTC