Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-11 (built 22:15 UTC), 268 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.14
- euphoria z=+0.31
- fear z=-1.94
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=-0.39
- hope z=-0.68
- optimism z=-2.63
- panic z=+1.12
- skepticism z=-0.96
- uncertainty z=-1.71
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-2.15
- euphoria z=+0.53
- fear z=-2.03
- frustration z=-1.30
- greed z=-0.70
- hope z=-3.02
- optimism z=-2.39
- panic z=+1.01
- skepticism z=-1.21
- uncertainty z=-1.36
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.17
- euphoria z=+2.03
- fear z=-1.45
- frustration z=-0.38
- greed z=-0.23
- hope z=-0.19
- optimism z=-1.72
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=+0.43
- uncertainty z=-0.20
4. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.49
- euphoria z=+2.25
- fear z=-1.79
- frustration z=-1.07
- greed z=-0.43
- hope z=-0.36
- optimism z=-1.86
- panic z=+0.69
- skepticism z=-0.48
- uncertainty z=+0.06
5. commodities_supercycle optimism ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.21
- euphoria z=-0.59
- fear z=-1.81
- frustration z=-1.76
- greed z=-0.17
- hope z=+0.43
- optimism z=-2.71
- panic z=+1.09
- skepticism z=-1.20
- uncertainty z=-0.97
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
banking_crisis ↑ +2.52σ DoD
+2.52σ vs own history — +42% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.10
- fear z=+0.05
- frustration z=+0.69
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.93
- optimism z=-0.77
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=+0.83
- uncertainty z=+0.04
deglobalisation ↑ +1.43σ DoD
+1.43σ vs own history — +65% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.41
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.38
- frustration z=+0.98
- greed z=-0.24
- hope z=+1.21
- optimism z=-0.93
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.03
- uncertainty z=-3.24
defense_rearmament ↑ +0.13σ DoD
+0.13σ vs own history — +4% change, now at 75th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.12
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.13
- frustration z=+0.57
- greed z=-0.37
- hope z=+1.08
- optimism z=-0.02
- panic z=+0.48
- skepticism z=-1.88
- uncertainty z=-0.67
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -1.32σ DoD
-1.32σ vs own history — -12% change, now at 18th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.18
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.20
- frustration z=+0.39
- greed z=-0.05
- hope z=-0.17
- optimism z=-1.06
- panic z=+0.27
- skepticism z=-0.89
- uncertainty z=-0.53
energy_insecurity ↓ -1.27σ DoD
-1.27σ vs own history — -12% change, now at 18th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.20
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.25
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=+0.53
- hope z=-2.02
- optimism z=-1.01
- panic z=+1.05
- skepticism z=-0.39
- uncertainty z=-0.32
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.24σ DoD
-1.24σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 21th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.23
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.28
- frustration z=-0.21
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=-0.01
- optimism z=-0.97
- panic z=+0.97
- skepticism z=-0.18
- uncertainty z=-0.49
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +1.23σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.23σ vs own history — +234% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.79
- frustration z=-1.08
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.74
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.67
- skepticism z=-1.32
- uncertainty z=-2.05
banking_crisis: +0.89σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.89σ vs own history — +62% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.42
- fear z=-0.74
- frustration z=-0.02
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.42
- optimism z=-1.20
- panic z=+3.65
- skepticism z=-0.67
- uncertainty z=-1.55
inflation: +0.48σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.48σ vs own history — +55% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.60
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.64
- frustration z=-0.70
- greed z=+0.48
- hope z=-2.35
- optimism z=-1.80
- panic z=+2.52
- skepticism z=-0.27
- uncertainty z=-1.11
↓ Top Decreases
ex_usa_trade: -0.90σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.90σ vs own history — -43% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.36
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.04
- frustration z=-1.83
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.70
- optimism z=+0.56
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+3.28
- uncertainty z=-0.85
dollar_strength: -0.89σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.89σ vs own history — -11% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.26
- fear z=-0.58
- frustration z=+0.75
- greed z=+0.30
- hope z=+2.99
- optimism z=+1.14
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.35
- uncertainty z=-2.90
commodities_supercycle: -0.73σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.73σ vs own history — -8% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.60
- euphoria z=-1.93
- fear z=-0.96
- frustration z=-1.78
- greed z=-0.05
- hope z=+0.23
- optimism z=-2.45
- panic z=+3.25
- skepticism z=-0.51
- uncertainty z=-0.45
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.27
- fear z=-1.44
- frustration z=-1.03
- greed z=-1.42
- hope z=+0.41
- optimism z=-1.09
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=-0.68
- uncertainty z=-1.50
deglobalisationp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.84
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.42
- frustration z=-0.31
- greed z=+0.44
- hope z=+0.33
- optimism z=+0.32
- panic z=+0.72
- skepticism z=+1.13
- uncertainty z=-2.36
technology_paradigm_shiftp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.17
- euphoria z=+2.03
- fear z=-1.45
- frustration z=-0.38
- greed z=-0.23
- hope z=-0.19
- optimism z=-1.72
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=+0.43
- uncertainty z=-0.20
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.59 — Skepticism z-score: +0.21.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.65.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.54), energy_insecurity (0.54), technology_paradigm_shift (0.48).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.011 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-3.3%), banking_crisis (+3.0%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p29 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+234%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.59, regime_score=-0.76
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.9010 | -1.2487 | -0.2484 | 21th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.7731 | -0.9439 | -0.0456 | 18th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.3861 | -0.3265 | +1.4955 | 71th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 5.0352 | -0.1426 | +1.4549 | 75th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.3174 | -0.1649 | +1.5365 | 75th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.8146 | -0.5659 | -0.3454 | 21th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.3974 | -0.4152 | -0.1983 | 12th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8004 | -0.3901 | +0.0177 | 18th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.2138 | -0.0422 | -0.7263 | 18th | 10 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.1709 | +0.6397 | +0.8292 | 100th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-11
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | 3.1346 | +1.3454 (+75.2%) | +1.8684 (+147.6%) |
| AI_boom | 5.2438 | -0.6519 (-11.1%) | +2.0730 (+65.4%) |
| stagflation | 2.1236 | -0.3384 (-13.7%) | +1.7728 (+505.4%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.3925 | -0.8125 (-13.1%) | +1.8249 (+51.2%) |
| inflation | 4.4431 | -1.0420 (-19.0%) | +1.4529 (+48.6%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.9156 | +0.5604 (+157.8%) | +0.3658 (+66.5%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.8249 | +0.3175 (+21.1%) | +0.2667 (+17.1%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.0820 | -0.2606 (-11.1%) | +0.5651 (+37.2%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0000 | -0.0444 (-100.0%) | -0.0300 (-100.0%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.7351 | -0.3922 (-34.8%) | +0.0558 (+8.2%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-11
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | emergence | 3.092 | 0.886 | 0.236 | 0.768 | 0.002 | 0.230 |
| stagflation | emergence | 1.867 | 0.713 | 0.332 | 0.773 | 0.072 | 0.155 |
| inflation | crowding | 1.571 | 0.659 | 0.370 | 0.602 | 0.157 | 0.241 |
| defense_rearmament | acceleration | 1.534 | 0.667 | 0.385 | 0.790 | 0.052 | 0.158 |
| deglobalisation | emergence | 1.518 | 0.725 | 0.427 | 0.753 | 0.247 | 0.000 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | crowding | 1.488 | 0.649 | 0.386 | 0.568 | 0.205 | 0.227 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 1.405 | 0.668 | 0.426 | 0.644 | 0.163 | 0.193 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 1.200 | 0.641 | 0.485 | 0.586 | 0.238 | 0.176 |
| recession | exhaustion | 1.018 | 0.507 | 0.448 | 0.307 | 0.570 | 0.123 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.978 | 0.454 | 0.414 | 0.427 | 0.530 | 0.043 |
| commodities_supercycle | exhaustion | 0.861 | 0.415 | 0.431 | 0.266 | 0.655 | 0.080 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 0.858 | 0.429 | 0.450 | 0.254 | 0.645 | 0.101 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.823 | 0.452 | 0.499 | 0.611 | 0.389 | 0.000 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 0.809 | 0.384 | 0.424 | 0.206 | 0.711 | 0.083 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.777 | 0.357 | 0.409 | 0.361 | 0.603 | 0.036 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.722 | 0.397 | 0.500 | 0.311 | 0.689 | 0.000 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.683 | 0.400 | 0.535 | 0.258 | 0.690 | 0.052 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.627 | 0.366 | 0.534 | 0.254 | 0.746 | 0.000 |
| demographic_shift | exhaustion | 0.483 | 0.322 | 0.616 | 0.348 | 0.652 | 0.000 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.320 | 0.206 | 0.594 | 0.120 | 0.880 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
174 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-11 22:00 UTC