Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-20 (built 11:15 UTC), 222 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by fed_pivot, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk down: -3.69 DoD (-33%), now at 65th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- energy_insecurity down: -3.49 DoD (-39%), now at 90th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- inflation down: -3.04 DoD (-49%), now at 70th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +5.95 WoW (+361%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- energy_insecurity: +4.45 WoW (+461%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- technology_paradigm_shift: +3.31 WoW (+432%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) fed_pivot (p91) 2) energy_insecurity (p90) 3) commodities_supercycle (p90) 4) interest_rate_insecurity (p82) 5) stagflation (p78)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.49), skepticism elevated (z=+1.18).
- Fear is most concentrated in defense_rearmament (avg fear 0.75).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): energy_insecurity (0.70), commodities_supercycle (0.60).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.023 vs 7d baseline 0.071).
Watchlist
- Watch fed_pivot: if it remains above p90 for 3 days → duration longs, growth equity bias.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+361%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.49, regime_score=+0.98
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 7.6027 | -3.6938 | +5.9528 | 65th | 9 | |
| energy_insecurity | 5.4139 | -3.4879 | +4.4489 | 90th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.0808 | -0.3242 | +3.3141 | 71th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 3.7184 | -0.3095 | +3.0960 | 52th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.4387 | -2.5943 | +2.9537 | 90th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.1497 | -3.0447 | +2.5797 | 70th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.7379 | -0.7383 | +2.6935 | 65th | 6 | |
| recession | 2.6825 | -2.4486 | +1.9741 | 52th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.1068 | -2.8863 | +1.7628 | 82th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 1.6859 | -1.0874 | +1.2776 | 58th | 8 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 9,189 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 84 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 28 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 6,118 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 20,020 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,523 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,523 total posts | 3,063 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 719 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 645 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 619 |
| r/investing | 587 |
| r/economics | 544 |
| r/stocks | 511 |
| r/StockMarket | 368 |
| r/options | 309 |
| r/finance | 97 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 63 |
| r/TrueReddit | 37 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 24 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-20
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 7.6027 | -3.6938 (-32.7%) | +5.9528 (+360.8%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.0808 | -0.3242 (-7.4%) | +3.3141 (+432.3%) |
| AI_boom | 3.7184 | -0.3095 (-7.7%) | +3.0960 (+497.4%) |
| crypto_adoption | 2.7379 | -0.7383 (-21.2%) | +2.6935 (+6060.4%) |
| energy_insecurity | 5.4139 | -3.4879 (-39.2%) | +4.4489 (+461.0%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.4387 | -2.5943 (-43.0%) | +2.9537 (+609.0%) |
| sector_rotation | 1.6859 | -1.0874 (-39.2%) | +1.2776 (+312.9%) |
| inflation | 3.1497 | -3.0447 (-49.2%) | +2.5797 (+452.6%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.3613 | +0.1619 (+81.1%) | +0.2371 (+190.7%) |
| recession | 2.6825 | -2.4486 (-47.7%) | +1.9741 (+278.7%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
84 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-20 11:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 28 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 9189 |
| narrative_scores | 6118 |
| fetch_runs | 84 |
| post_rankings | 20020 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 28 |