Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-29 (built 04:15 UTC), 187 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=-0.82
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=+0.86
- frustration z=-0.26
- greed z=-0.42
- hope z=-1.48
- optimism z=-0.13
- panic z=+0.46
- skepticism z=-0.09
- uncertainty z=+0.45
2. energy_insecurity
- confidence z=-0.06
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=+1.20
- frustration z=-0.83
- greed z=-0.64
- hope z=-0.98
- optimism z=-0.19
- panic z=+0.43
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-1.03
3. recession euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-0.24
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.25
- frustration z=-0.36
- greed z=-0.39
- hope z=+0.98
- optimism z=+0.90
- panic z=+1.06
- skepticism z=+0.25
- uncertainty z=+0.36
4. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=-0.06
- euphoria z=-1.23
- fear z=-0.84
- frustration z=+0.62
- greed z=-1.21
- hope z=-0.58
- optimism z=+0.22
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=+0.69
- uncertainty z=+0.80
5. sector_rotation panic ↑
- confidence z=-1.11
- euphoria z=+0.01
- fear z=+0.13
- frustration z=-0.39
- greed z=-1.01
- hope z=+0.13
- optimism z=+1.23
- panic z=+1.57
- skepticism z=+0.43
- uncertainty z=+0.75
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -42%
-4.05 DoD change — now at 34th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.49
- frustration z=-0.31
- greed z=-0.14
- hope z=-0.27
- optimism z=+0.58
- panic z=-0.28
- skepticism z=-0.43
- uncertainty z=-0.19
recession ↓ -41%
-2.36 DoD change — now at 76th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.03
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.54
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=-0.00
- optimism z=+0.30
- panic z=+0.07
- skepticism z=-0.79
- uncertainty z=-0.57
AI_boom ↓ -49%
-2.26 DoD change — now at 31th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.21
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.17
- frustration z=+0.03
- greed z=-0.59
- hope z=-1.00
- optimism z=+0.17
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.30
- uncertainty z=+0.15
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: -47% WoW — trend decelerating
-5.00 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.80
- euphoria z=-1.07
- fear z=+0.33
- frustration z=+0.08
- greed z=-2.40
- hope z=-0.86
- optimism z=-0.58
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=+0.46
- uncertainty z=-0.26
energy_insecurity: -48% WoW — trend decelerating
-3.56 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.50
- euphoria z=-0.92
- fear z=+0.84
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=-1.58
- hope z=-0.80
- optimism z=+0.14
- panic z=+0.12
- skepticism z=+0.49
- uncertainty z=-1.10
AI_boom: -53% WoW — trend decelerating
-2.56 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.47
- euphoria z=+0.28
- fear z=+2.30
- frustration z=-1.35
- greed z=-0.69
- hope z=-0.60
- optimism z=+0.07
- panic z=+1.62
- skepticism z=+0.42
- uncertainty z=+0.43
Narratives to Look Out For
demographic_shiftp77
Attention is at the 77th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.76
- fear z=-0.03
- frustration z=+0.02
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.78
- optimism z=+0.63
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.29
- uncertainty z=+0.06
recessionp76
Attention is at the 76th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.24
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.25
- frustration z=-0.36
- greed z=-0.39
- hope z=+0.98
- optimism z=+0.90
- panic z=+1.06
- skepticism z=+0.25
- uncertainty z=+0.36
banking_crisisp62
Attention is at the 62th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-2.44
- euphoria z=-0.82
- fear z=+0.15
- frustration z=-1.34
- greed z=+1.34
- hope z=-1.50
- optimism z=-1.71
- panic z=-0.28
- skepticism z=-0.63
- uncertainty z=-0.04
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: +0.11 — Skepticism z-score: -0.88.
Fear most concentrated in defense_rearmament
Average fear score for defense_rearmament: 0.75.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.66), energy_insecurity (0.68), recession (0.72).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.008 vs 7-day baseline 0.010.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p34 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+95%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.11, regime_score=+2.36
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 5.5397 | -4.0454 | -5.0039 | 34th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.8870 | -2.1698 | -3.5590 | 37th | 7 | |
| recession | 3.4071 | -2.3589 | +0.4687 | 76th | 10 | |
| inflation | 2.9797 | -1.0840 | -0.3332 | 55th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.7266 | -1.7658 | -1.0685 | 48th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.3517 | -2.1001 | -2.0980 | 25th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.3227 | -1.1047 | -1.8437 | 37th | 7 | |
| AI_boom | 2.3167 | -2.2591 | -2.5635 | 31th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.2777 | -1.3629 | -1.0013 | 38th | 4 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.6158 | -0.7001 | -0.2543 | 50th | 9 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 13,837 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 119 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 9,450 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 28,420 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,989 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,989 total posts | 4,529 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 925 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 856 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 811 |
| r/investing | 763 |
| r/economics | 708 |
| r/stocks | 682 |
| r/StockMarket | 474 |
| r/options | 404 |
| r/finance | 114 |
| r/TrueReddit | 111 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 72 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 69 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-29
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| demographic_shift | 0.3800 | -0.0300 (-7.3%) | +0.1575 (+70.8%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.4342 | -0.1694 (-28.1%) | +0.1221 (+39.1%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| energy_transition | 0.4343 | -0.1721 (-28.4%) | +0.0391 (+9.9%) |
| stagflation | 1.0642 | -0.9225 (-46.4%) | +0.5195 (+95.4%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.1000 | -0.1602 (-61.6%) | -0.0500 (-33.3%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
119 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-29 04:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 13837 |
| narrative_scores | 9450 |
| fetch_runs | 119 |
| post_rankings | 28420 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |