Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-28 (built 11:26 UTC), 217 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.47
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=+0.62
- frustration z=-0.01
- greed z=+0.20
- hope z=-1.44
- optimism z=-3.17
- panic z=+0.76
- skepticism z=+0.49
- uncertainty z=+0.78
2. energy_insecurity optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.37
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=+1.30
- frustration z=-1.04
- greed z=-0.66
- hope z=-0.77
- optimism z=-1.64
- panic z=+0.96
- skepticism z=+0.21
- uncertainty z=-0.28
3. recession euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-0.73
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+1.04
- frustration z=+0.14
- greed z=-0.16
- hope z=+0.98
- optimism z=+0.99
- panic z=+0.96
- skepticism z=+1.01
- uncertainty z=+1.03
4. technology_paradigm_shift greed ↓
- confidence z=+0.01
- euphoria z=-0.52
- fear z=+1.06
- frustration z=-0.33
- greed z=-1.55
- hope z=-0.80
- optimism z=-0.44
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=-0.31
- uncertainty z=+1.44
5. AI_boom confidence ↓
- confidence z=-1.91
- euphoria z=-0.74
- fear z=+0.49
- frustration z=-1.18
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-0.96
- optimism z=-1.46
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=+1.14
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -45%
-5.69 DoD change — now at 41th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.75
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.10
- frustration z=+0.04
- greed z=+0.15
- hope z=-0.88
- optimism z=-2.23
- panic z=-0.02
- skepticism z=+0.27
- uncertainty z=+0.33
energy_insecurity ↓ -51%
-3.90 DoD change — now at 39th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.92
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.19
- frustration z=+0.08
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=-0.57
- optimism z=-1.91
- panic z=+0.06
- skepticism z=+0.20
- uncertainty z=+0.70
technology_paradigm_shift ↓ -44%
-2.24 DoD change — now at 27th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.49
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.43
- frustration z=-0.16
- greed z=-0.58
- hope z=-0.75
- optimism z=-0.63
- panic z=+0.02
- skepticism z=+0.53
- uncertainty z=+0.79
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: -29% WoW — trend decelerating
-2.86 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-3.02
- euphoria z=-1.50
- fear z=+0.68
- frustration z=+1.37
- greed z=-1.77
- hope z=-0.72
- optimism z=-3.54
- panic z=+0.79
- skepticism z=-0.98
- uncertainty z=+0.39
energy_insecurity: -41% WoW — trend decelerating
-2.63 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.24
- euphoria z=-1.29
- fear z=+1.27
- frustration z=-0.54
- greed z=-1.92
- hope z=-0.53
- optimism z=-1.39
- panic z=+1.21
- skepticism z=-0.03
- uncertainty z=-0.28
technology_paradigm_shift: -41% WoW — trend decelerating
-1.99 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.33
- euphoria z=-1.36
- fear z=+0.64
- frustration z=+0.45
- greed z=-2.74
- hope z=-0.84
- optimism z=-0.30
- panic z=-0.12
- skepticism z=-0.62
- uncertainty z=+1.16
Narratives to Look Out For
recessionp86
Attention is at the 86th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.73
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+1.04
- frustration z=+0.14
- greed z=-0.16
- hope z=+0.98
- optimism z=+0.99
- panic z=+0.96
- skepticism z=+1.01
- uncertainty z=+1.03
fed_pivotp79
Attention is at the 79th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.17
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.17
- frustration z=+0.81
- greed z=-1.85
- hope z=+1.18
- optimism z=+1.51
- panic z=-0.41
- skepticism z=-1.17
- uncertainty z=+0.48
stagflationp76
Attention is at the 76th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.26
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.33
- frustration z=+0.21
- greed z=+0.34
- hope z=-0.04
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=+0.86
- skepticism z=+0.54
- uncertainty z=+0.75
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -0.44 — Skepticism z-score: -0.39.
Fear most concentrated in energy_insecurity
Average fear score for energy_insecurity: 0.84.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.77), energy_insecurity (0.84), recession (0.67).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p41 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession: WoW rising (+26%)
If trend continues → quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.44, regime_score=+1.22
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 6.8761 | -5.6909 | -2.8603 | 41th | 9 | |
| recession | 4.1990 | -1.5235 | +0.8785 | 86th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.7941 | -3.8957 | -2.6297 | 39th | 7 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.1984 | -1.2112 | -0.4177 | 60th | 8 | |
| AI_boom | 3.1043 | -1.8839 | -1.1706 | 41th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.8643 | -2.2378 | -1.9936 | 27th | 10 | |
| inflation | 2.7073 | -1.1579 | -1.4594 | 52th | 8 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.2742 | -1.4310 | -0.8786 | 38th | 5 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 1.9984 | -2.1985 | -1.3685 | 39th | 7 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.8648 | -0.3689 | -0.4353 | 63th | 7 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 13,520 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 116 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 9,208 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 27,700 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,892 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,892 total posts | 4,432 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 913 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 844 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 802 |
| r/investing | 749 |
| r/economics | 699 |
| r/stocks | 670 |
| r/StockMarket | 467 |
| r/options | 395 |
| r/finance | 114 |
| r/TrueReddit | 105 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 72 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 62 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-28
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| deglobalisation | 0.5724 | +0.3338 (+139.9%) | +0.1224 (+27.2%) |
| stagflation | 1.3857 | -0.3425 (-19.8%) | +0.2837 (+25.7%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| recession | 4.1990 | -1.5235 (-26.6%) | +0.8785 (+26.5%) |
| banking_crisis | 1.5747 | -0.3880 (-19.8%) | +0.0582 (+3.8%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.8584 | -0.0331 (-3.7%) | -0.2305 (-21.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
116 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-28 11:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 13520 |
| narrative_scores | 9208 |
| fetch_runs | 116 |
| post_rankings | 27700 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |