Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-10 (built 10:15 UTC), 209 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.15
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=-1.82
- frustration z=+0.28
- greed z=-0.60
- hope z=-0.25
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=-0.09
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=-1.03
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.20
- euphoria z=+0.93
- fear z=-1.99
- frustration z=-0.87
- greed z=-1.49
- hope z=-0.07
- optimism z=-0.96
- panic z=-0.67
- skepticism z=-0.89
- uncertainty z=-1.05
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.42
- euphoria z=+2.11
- fear z=-1.39
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=+0.44
- hope z=+0.63
- optimism z=-0.12
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.71
- uncertainty z=-0.03
4. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-2.60
- euphoria z=-0.27
- fear z=-2.25
- frustration z=-1.86
- greed z=-1.32
- hope z=+0.38
- optimism z=-2.31
- panic z=-1.35
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=-1.05
5. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.59
- euphoria z=+2.30
- fear z=-1.47
- frustration z=-0.79
- greed z=+0.32
- hope z=-0.02
- optimism z=-1.95
- panic z=+0.95
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=+0.38
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength ↑ +0.39σ DoD
+0.39σ vs own history — +19% change, now at 85th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.07
- fear z=-0.04
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.70
- uncertainty z=-0.64
ex_usa_trade ↑ +0.09σ DoD
+0.09σ vs own history — +9% change, now at 26th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.53
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.43
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.18
- optimism z=-0.22
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.54
- uncertainty z=-1.29
↓ Top Decreases
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.40σ DoD
-1.40σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 18th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.13
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.15
- frustration z=-0.20
- greed z=-0.55
- hope z=-0.41
- optimism z=-0.69
- panic z=-0.16
- skepticism z=-0.20
- uncertainty z=+0.12
energy_insecurity ↓ -1.36σ DoD
-1.36σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.22
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.23
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=-0.21
- skepticism z=+0.03
- uncertainty z=+0.04
crypto_adoption ↓ -1.24σ DoD
-1.24σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.13
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.05
- frustration z=-0.34
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.14
- optimism z=+0.07
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.30
- uncertainty z=-0.72
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
demographic_shift: +0.61σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.61σ vs own history — +90% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.20
- frustration z=-1.29
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.53
- uncertainty z=-0.10
stagflation: +0.32σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.32σ vs own history — +65% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.66
- frustration z=-1.38
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+3.59
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.18
- skepticism z=-3.30
- uncertainty z=-2.49
fed_pivot: +0.03σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.03σ vs own history — +21% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.80
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.42
- frustration z=-1.67
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.07
- optimism z=-0.37
- panic z=+0.30
- skepticism z=-1.32
- uncertainty z=-0.98
↓ Top Decreases
dollar_strength: -1.62σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.62σ vs own history — -34% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.20
- fear z=-0.76
- frustration z=+1.65
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.24
- optimism z=+0.64
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.91
- uncertainty z=-2.60
deglobalisation: -1.24σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.24σ vs own history — -38% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.82
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.08
- uncertainty z=+0.24
ex_usa_trade: -1.22σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.22σ vs own history — -55% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.13
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.69
- frustration z=-1.08
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.92
- optimism z=+0.33
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.18
- uncertainty z=-0.50
Narratives to Look Out For
technology_paradigm_shiftp82
Attention is at the 82th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.42
- euphoria z=+2.11
- fear z=-1.39
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=+0.44
- hope z=+0.63
- optimism z=-0.12
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.71
- uncertainty z=-0.03
energy_insecurityp81
Attention is at the 81th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-2.20
- euphoria z=+0.93
- fear z=-1.99
- frustration z=-0.87
- greed z=-1.49
- hope z=-0.07
- optimism z=-0.96
- panic z=-0.67
- skepticism z=-0.89
- uncertainty z=-1.05
demographic_shiftp80
Attention is at the 80th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.56
- fear z=-1.77
- frustration z=-0.48
- greed z=+1.02
- hope z=+0.23
- optimism z=+0.82
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.77
- uncertainty z=-1.10
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.50 — Skepticism z-score: -0.06.
Fear most concentrated in interest_rate_insecurity
Average fear score for interest_rate_insecurity: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.58), energy_insecurity (0.57), technology_paradigm_shift (0.56).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.008 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-3.4%), technology_paradigm_shift (+2.8%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p64 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch demographic_shift: WoW rising (+90%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.50, regime_score=-0.58
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.2058 | -1.3331 | -0.0239 | 18th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.7538 | -0.9329 | +0.4945 | 15th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.9475 | -0.2887 | +0.7124 | 25th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.2502 | -0.2097 | +0.2605 | 33th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.2254 | -0.4976 | +0.2125 | 11th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.8050 | -0.4582 | -0.1029 | 4th | 8 | |
| inflation | 3.2984 | -0.2015 | +0.6999 | 32th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8183 | -0.1829 | -0.0344 | 18th | 7 | |
| recession | 2.1177 | -0.2296 | -0.7950 | 14th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.5992 | -0.1524 | +0.1554 | 18th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-10
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| technology_paradigm_shift | 9.0604 | +2.9256 (+47.7%) | +5.4419 (+150.4%) |
| AI_boom | 8.1127 | +2.8221 (+53.3%) | +4.6886 (+136.9%) |
| geopolitical_risk | 14.6870 | +2.7926 (+23.5%) | +3.8016 (+34.9%) |
| inflation | 5.9632 | +2.6774 (+81.5%) | +3.5108 (+143.2%) |
| energy_insecurity | 10.0725 | +1.7805 (+21.5%) | +3.3087 (+48.9%) |
| sector_rotation | 5.0029 | +2.1609 (+76.0%) | +2.6864 (+116.0%) |
| stagflation | 3.0432 | +1.6928 (+125.4%) | +2.4528 (+415.5%) |
| banking_crisis | 2.9619 | +1.9004 (+179.0%) | +1.2486 (+72.9%) |
| dollar_strength | 2.2132 | +1.9320 (+687.1%) | +1.0463 (+89.7%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.5816 | +0.9412 (+20.3%) | +1.5782 (+39.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
168 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-10 10:00 UTC