Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-28 (built 17:15 UTC), 245 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.40
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=+0.71
- frustration z=-0.07
- greed z=+0.38
- hope z=-1.29
- optimism z=-1.31
- panic z=+0.60
- skepticism z=+0.04
- uncertainty z=+0.69
2. energy_insecurity fear ↑
- confidence z=-0.21
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=+1.59
- frustration z=-0.99
- greed z=-0.61
- hope z=-0.48
- optimism z=-0.67
- panic z=+0.67
- skepticism z=-0.08
- uncertainty z=-0.82
3. recession euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-0.63
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.65
- frustration z=+0.08
- greed z=-0.56
- hope z=+0.95
- optimism z=+0.87
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=+0.97
- uncertainty z=+0.95
4. AI_boom
- confidence z=-1.06
- euphoria z=-0.69
- fear z=+0.81
- frustration z=-0.88
- greed z=-0.72
- hope z=-0.71
- optimism z=-1.05
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=+0.21
- uncertainty z=+1.08
5. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=+0.20
- euphoria z=-1.38
- fear z=+1.09
- frustration z=-0.35
- greed z=-1.30
- hope z=-0.55
- optimism z=+0.03
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=-0.49
- uncertainty z=+1.18
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -36%
-4.46 DoD change — now at 45th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.53
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.30
- frustration z=+0.02
- greed z=+0.33
- hope z=-1.00
- optimism z=-0.57
- panic z=-0.19
- skepticism z=-0.15
- uncertainty z=+0.18
energy_insecurity ↓ -38%
-2.89 DoD change — now at 44th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.70
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.50
- frustration z=+0.14
- greed z=+0.07
- hope z=-0.24
- optimism z=-0.85
- panic z=-0.28
- skepticism z=-0.11
- uncertainty z=+0.11
commodities_supercycle ↓ -44%
-1.83 DoD change — now at 39th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-2.45
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+2.52
- frustration z=+1.32
- greed z=-0.20
- hope z=-0.58
- optimism z=-3.27
- panic z=-1.66
- skepticism z=-0.04
- uncertainty z=+0.27
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: -17% WoW — trend decelerating
-1.63 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.89
- euphoria z=-1.50
- fear z=+0.78
- frustration z=+1.28
- greed z=-1.57
- hope z=-0.84
- optimism z=-1.74
- panic z=+0.62
- skepticism z=-1.39
- uncertainty z=+0.24
energy_insecurity: -25% WoW — trend decelerating
-1.62 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.06
- euphoria z=-1.29
- fear z=+1.58
- frustration z=-0.48
- greed z=-1.87
- hope z=-0.21
- optimism z=-0.26
- panic z=+0.90
- skepticism z=-0.34
- uncertainty z=-0.86
recession: +42% WoW — trend accelerating
+1.41 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.73
- euphoria z=+1.05
- fear z=+0.10
- frustration z=-0.52
- greed z=-1.12
- hope z=+0.47
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=+0.47
- skepticism z=-0.42
- uncertainty z=+0.22
Narratives to Look Out For
recessionp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.63
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.65
- frustration z=+0.08
- greed z=-0.56
- hope z=+0.95
- optimism z=+0.87
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=+0.97
- uncertainty z=+0.95
sector_rotationp90
Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.88
- euphoria z=+0.01
- fear z=+0.53
- frustration z=-1.29
- greed z=-1.55
- hope z=+0.15
- optimism z=+0.91
- panic z=+1.54
- skepticism z=-0.16
- uncertainty z=+1.00
fed_pivotp79
Attention is at the 79th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.18
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.17
- frustration z=+0.81
- greed z=-1.85
- hope z=+1.38
- optimism z=+1.55
- panic z=-0.41
- skepticism z=-1.25
- uncertainty z=+0.46
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: -0.25 — Skepticism z-score: -0.55.
Fear most concentrated in deglobalisation
Average fear score for deglobalisation: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.76), energy_insecurity (0.79), recession (0.65).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.009 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p45 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession: WoW rising (+42%)
If trend continues → quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.25, regime_score=+1.78
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 8.0830 | -4.4617 | -1.6266 | 45th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 4.8006 | -2.8892 | -1.6232 | 44th | 8 | |
| recession | 4.7286 | -0.9939 | +1.4081 | 93th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.1920 | -0.7962 | -0.0828 | 66th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.8963 | -0.5134 | +0.2802 | 90th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.7111 | -1.3910 | -1.1468 | 27th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.0883 | -0.7769 | -1.0784 | 59th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.6695 | -1.0357 | -0.4833 | 41th | 5 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.3635 | -1.8335 | -1.0035 | 39th | 7 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.0381 | -0.1955 | -0.2620 | 68th | 8 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 13,631 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 117 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 9,293 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 27,940 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,927 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,927 total posts | 4,467 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 916 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 848 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 805 |
| r/investing | 756 |
| r/economics | 702 |
| r/stocks | 674 |
| r/StockMarket | 470 |
| r/options | 397 |
| r/finance | 114 |
| r/TrueReddit | 107 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 72 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 66 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-28
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| recession | 4.7286 | -0.9939 (-17.4%) | +1.4081 (+42.4%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.5724 | +0.3338 (+139.9%) | +0.1224 (+27.2%) |
| stagflation | 1.5179 | -0.2103 (-12.2%) | +0.4159 (+37.7%) |
| energy_transition | 0.5597 | +0.2083 (+59.3%) | -0.0573 (-9.3%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| banking_crisis | 1.6144 | -0.3094 (-16.1%) | +0.1445 (+9.8%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
117 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-28 17:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 13631 |
| narrative_scores | 9293 |
| fetch_runs | 117 |
| post_rankings | 27940 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |