Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-12 (built 22:15 UTC), 295 posts today across 11 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk uncertainty ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.40
- euphoria z=+0.31
- fear z=-1.47
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-0.79
- hope z=-0.66
- optimism z=-1.84
- panic z=+1.07
- skepticism z=-1.66
- uncertainty z=-2.29
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.71
- euphoria z=+0.53
- fear z=-1.28
- frustration z=-1.85
- greed z=-1.17
- hope z=-2.23
- optimism z=-1.95
- panic z=+1.02
- skepticism z=-1.67
- uncertainty z=-1.28
3. technology_paradigm_shift optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.99
- euphoria z=+1.00
- fear z=-2.31
- frustration z=-0.06
- greed z=+0.25
- hope z=+0.20
- optimism z=-2.33
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=+1.55
- uncertainty z=-0.61
4. AI_boom fear ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.39
- euphoria z=+1.13
- fear z=-2.62
- frustration z=-0.80
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=-0.33
- optimism z=-1.85
- panic z=+0.69
- skepticism z=-0.22
- uncertainty z=-0.94
5. inflation confidence ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-2.05
- euphoria z=+1.10
- fear z=-1.18
- frustration z=-0.61
- greed z=+1.03
- hope z=-0.47
- optimism z=-1.46
- panic z=+0.76
- skepticism z=-0.38
- uncertainty z=-2.01
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
demographic_shift ↑ +1.89σ DoD
+1.89σ vs own history — +54% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.48
- fear z=-0.65
- frustration z=+0.69
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.46
- optimism z=-0.77
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.07
- uncertainty z=-0.25
housing_bubble ↑ +0.80σ DoD
+0.80σ vs own history — +147% change, now at 42th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
ex_usa_trade ↑ +0.61σ DoD
+0.61σ vs own history — +24% change, now at 33th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.65
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.25
- frustration z=-0.60
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=-0.43
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.66
- uncertainty z=-0.59
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -1.38σ DoD
-1.38σ vs own history — -15% change, now at 7th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.26
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.79
- frustration z=+1.86
- greed z=+0.23
- hope z=+1.89
- optimism z=+0.16
- panic z=+0.85
- skepticism z=-1.23
- uncertainty z=-1.13
AI_boom ↓ -1.16σ DoD
-1.16σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 33th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.22
- euphoria z=-1.08
- fear z=-1.17
- frustration z=+0.26
- greed z=+0.19
- hope z=-0.26
- optimism z=+0.13
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.44
- uncertainty z=-1.12
dollar_strength ↓ -0.96σ DoD
-0.96σ vs own history — -30% change, now at 7th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.32
- fear z=-0.88
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.33
- uncertainty z=-0.80
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
technology_paradigm_shift: +1.99σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.99σ vs own history — +50% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.45
- euphoria z=+0.63
- fear z=-0.94
- frustration z=-1.57
- greed z=+0.65
- hope z=+1.02
- optimism z=-2.77
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.97
- uncertainty z=+1.14
stagflation: +1.72σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.72σ vs own history — +284% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.75
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.41
- frustration z=-0.39
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.35
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+3.14
- skepticism z=+0.45
- uncertainty z=-1.60
banking_crisis: +1.68σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.68σ vs own history — +65% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.09
- fear z=-1.32
- frustration z=+0.53
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.96
- optimism z=-1.42
- panic z=+3.57
- skepticism z=-0.94
- uncertainty z=-1.30
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation: -0.63σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.63σ vs own history — -19% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.38
- euphoria z=-0.09
- fear z=-1.54
- frustration z=+2.37
- greed z=-0.66
- hope z=+3.45
- optimism z=-3.95
- panic z=+2.05
- skepticism z=-0.53
- uncertainty z=-0.64
dollar_strength: -0.63σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.63σ vs own history — -22% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.12
- frustration z=+0.02
- greed z=+1.06
- hope z=+2.71
- optimism z=+1.23
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-3.03
- uncertainty z=-2.44
commodities_supercycle: -0.44σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.44σ vs own history — -4% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.02
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.26
- frustration z=-1.70
- greed z=+1.15
- hope z=+0.41
- optimism z=-1.18
- panic z=+0.52
- skepticism z=-1.09
- uncertainty z=-0.36
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.46
- fear z=-1.89
- frustration z=-0.48
- greed z=-1.42
- hope z=+0.41
- optimism z=-1.29
- panic z=+0.85
- skepticism z=-0.78
- uncertainty z=-1.52
demographic_shiftp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.08
- fear z=-0.33
- frustration z=+0.33
- greed z=+1.15
- hope z=+0.56
- optimism z=-0.34
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.30
- uncertainty z=-0.21
stagflationp85
Attention is at the 85th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.99
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.44
- frustration z=-1.11
- greed z=-0.12
- hope z=+1.74
- optimism z=+0.60
- panic z=+0.81
- skepticism z=-0.97
- uncertainty z=-1.66
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.41 — Skepticism z-score: +0.52.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.62), energy_insecurity (0.67), technology_paradigm_shift (0.35).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.005 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p22 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch technology_paradigm_shift: WoW rising (+50%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.41, regime_score=+0.75
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.3726 | -0.1140 | +0.4437 | 30th | 11 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.0218 | +0.1786 | +0.2037 | 44th | 11 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.2078 | -0.3431 | +1.7431 | 63th | 11 | |
| AI_boom | 4.5413 | -0.5135 | +1.2307 | 33th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.0638 | -0.4451 | +1.2934 | 52th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.9231 | +0.1764 | -0.1711 | 52th | 11 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.1342 | -0.2305 | -0.0544 | 11th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.3510 | -0.4186 | -0.5344 | 7th | 8 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.2788 | +0.0576 | +0.8963 | 96th | 11 | |
| recession | 2.2171 | +0.0297 | -0.4334 | 19th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.0232 | +2.1095 (+23.7%) | +2.1575 (+24.3%) |
| energy_insecurity | 7.7809 | +2.0785 (+36.4%) | +1.2186 (+18.6%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.1783 | -0.0716 (-1.4%) | +2.1890 (+73.2%) |
| stagflation | 2.0507 | +0.0784 (+4.0%) | +1.6272 (+384.3%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.4426 | +1.3036 (+41.5%) | +0.4242 (+10.6%) |
| banking_crisis | 2.5247 | -0.3865 (-13.3%) | +1.1018 (+77.4%) |
| AI_boom | 4.2486 | -0.6215 (-12.8%) | +1.2531 (+41.8%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.7097 | +0.4916 (+225.4%) | +0.3700 (+108.9%) |
| defense_rearmament | 2.1226 | +0.1345 (+6.8%) | +0.5160 (+32.1%) |
| inflation | 3.8200 | -0.6176 (-13.9%) | +0.9927 (+35.1%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | emergence | 2.056 | 0.789 | 0.334 | 0.754 | 0.000 | 0.302 |
| stagflation | acceleration | 1.721 | 0.695 | 0.354 | 0.725 | 0.182 | 0.092 |
| commodities_supercycle | acceleration | 1.701 | 0.608 | 0.307 | 0.522 | 0.270 | 0.209 |
| demographic_shift | emergence | 1.542 | 0.736 | 0.427 | 0.795 | 0.205 | 0.000 |
| energy_insecurity | crowding | 1.477 | 0.549 | 0.322 | 0.405 | 0.433 | 0.162 |
| energy_transition | acceleration | 1.432 | 0.574 | 0.351 | 0.638 | 0.339 | 0.023 |
| defense_rearmament | crowding | 1.335 | 0.637 | 0.427 | 0.748 | 0.224 | 0.027 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 1.322 | 0.517 | 0.341 | 0.351 | 0.509 | 0.140 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 1.303 | 0.587 | 0.401 | 0.481 | 0.370 | 0.149 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | crowding | 1.299 | 0.667 | 0.464 | 0.473 | 0.338 | 0.189 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | crowding | 1.234 | 0.524 | 0.375 | 0.336 | 0.529 | 0.135 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 1.035 | 0.506 | 0.439 | 0.359 | 0.563 | 0.078 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.992 | 0.487 | 0.441 | 0.361 | 0.639 | 0.000 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.984 | 0.489 | 0.447 | 0.289 | 0.648 | 0.063 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.983 | 0.547 | 0.507 | 0.461 | 0.539 | 0.000 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.874 | 0.454 | 0.469 | 0.432 | 0.568 | 0.000 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.820 | 0.388 | 0.424 | 0.261 | 0.706 | 0.033 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.617 | 0.345 | 0.510 | 0.214 | 0.786 | 0.000 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.588 | 0.366 | 0.572 | 0.236 | 0.734 | 0.030 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.487 | 0.276 | 0.517 | 0.373 | 0.627 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
178 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-12 22:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.30
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -1.155 | -0.462 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.410 | -0.423 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.603 | -0.160 |
| Average Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.282 | -0.256 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.