Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-25 (built 23:15 UTC), 320 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=+0.71
- euphoria z=+0.04
- fear z=-0.62
- frustration z=-0.09
- greed z=+0.29
- hope z=+1.12
- optimism z=+1.27
- panic z=+0.21
- skepticism z=+1.50
- uncertainty z=-0.42
2. energy_insecurity fear ↓ optimism ↑
- confidence z=+1.22
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=-1.95
- frustration z=+0.46
- greed z=-1.00
- hope z=+0.60
- optimism z=+1.89
- panic z=+0.16
- skepticism z=+1.27
- uncertainty z=-1.84
3. technology_paradigm_shift frustration ↑
- confidence z=+0.58
- euphoria z=-1.15
- fear z=-0.60
- frustration z=+1.88
- greed z=+0.91
- hope z=+0.99
- optimism z=+1.15
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=-0.22
- uncertainty z=-0.13
4. commodities_supercycle fear ↓ optimism ↑
- confidence z=+1.04
- euphoria z=+0.75
- fear z=-2.46
- frustration z=-0.09
- greed z=+0.26
- hope z=+0.70
- optimism z=+1.99
- panic z=+0.98
- skepticism z=+1.29
- uncertainty z=-1.63
5. AI_boom panic ↑ frustration ↑
- confidence z=+0.70
- euphoria z=-1.62
- fear z=+0.13
- frustration z=+1.98
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=+0.98
- optimism z=+0.65
- panic z=+2.09
- skepticism z=+0.73
- uncertainty z=-0.49
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -18%
-2.39 DoD change — now at 71th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.11
- euphoria z=+0.60
- fear z=-1.49
- frustration z=-1.57
- greed z=-0.77
- hope z=+0.20
- optimism z=+0.88
- panic z=-0.67
- skepticism z=+0.06
- uncertainty z=-0.69
energy_insecurity ↓ -22%
-1.76 DoD change — now at 60th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.58
- euphoria z=+0.55
- fear z=-1.38
- frustration z=-0.02
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-0.36
- optimism z=+0.97
- panic z=-0.40
- skepticism z=+0.68
- uncertainty z=-0.39
AI_boom ↑ +41%
+1.39 DoD change — now at 71th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.13
- euphoria z=-0.40
- fear z=-0.70
- frustration z=+1.50
- greed z=+0.16
- hope z=+0.79
- optimism z=+1.22
- panic z=+0.66
- skepticism z=+0.83
- uncertainty z=-0.87
What Changed Since Last Week
interest_rate_insecurity: -77% WoW — trend accelerating
-5.23 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.33
- euphoria z=-0.37
- fear z=-0.23
- frustration z=-1.73
- greed z=+0.36
- hope z=-0.26
- optimism z=+0.57
- panic z=-0.46
- skepticism z=-0.60
- uncertainty z=+1.04
inflation: -76% WoW — trend accelerating
-5.17 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.54
- euphoria z=+1.55
- fear z=-0.33
- frustration z=-0.56
- greed z=+0.81
- hope z=+0.19
- optimism z=+1.79
- panic z=+0.56
- skepticism z=+0.61
- uncertainty z=+0.15
fed_pivot: -91% WoW — trend accelerating
-3.36 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.30
- euphoria z=-1.07
- fear z=+0.57
- frustration z=+1.75
- greed z=-0.85
- hope z=+1.04
- optimism z=+0.71
- panic z=+1.62
- skepticism z=+1.58
- uncertainty z=+1.22
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -0.50 — Skepticism z-score: +0.22.
Fear most concentrated in fed_pivot
Average fear score for fed_pivot: 0.90.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.61), energy_insecurity (0.65), technology_paradigm_shift (0.47).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.031.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p71 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch energy_insecurity: WoW rising (+28%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.50, regime_score=+0.13
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.8512 | -2.3947 | +2.6825 | 71th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.3803 | -1.7600 | +1.4008 | 60th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.2838 | +1.2560 | -0.3594 | 83th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.7585 | +1.3919 | +0.0717 | 71th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.9747 | -1.1066 | +0.9213 | 67th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.7208 | -0.7672 | -0.2166 | 82th | 5 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.3626 | +0.1255 | +0.3493 | 76th | 8 | |
| recession | 3.2706 | +0.1797 | -1.1341 | 75th | 10 | |
| defense_rearmament | 2.1270 | +0.1158 | +0.7742 | 91th | 8 | |
| banking_crisis | 1.7170 | -0.3303 | -0.0709 | 86th | 10 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 12,070 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 106 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 8,172 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 25,300 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,447 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,447 total posts | 3,987 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 860 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 775 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 738 |
| r/investing | 696 |
| r/economics | 650 |
| r/stocks | 615 |
| r/StockMarket | 432 |
| r/options | 367 |
| r/finance | 111 |
| r/TrueReddit | 91 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 71 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 41 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-25
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.8512 | -2.3947 (-18.1%) | +2.6825 (+32.8%) |
| AI_boom | 4.7585 | +1.3919 (+41.3%) | +0.0717 (+1.5%) |
| defense_rearmament | 2.1270 | +0.1158 (+5.8%) | +0.7742 (+57.2%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.2838 | +1.2560 (+31.2%) | -0.3594 (-6.4%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.3626 | +0.1255 (+3.9%) | +0.3493 (+11.6%) |
| energy_insecurity | 6.3803 | -1.7600 (-21.6%) | +1.4008 (+28.1%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.9747 | -1.1066 (-21.8%) | +0.9213 (+30.2%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.3579 | +0.1538 (+75.3%) | +0.0143 (+4.2%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.5971 | +0.5219 (+693.9%) | -0.2419 (-28.8%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
106 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-25 23:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 12070 |
| narrative_scores | 8172 |
| fetch_runs | 106 |
| post_rankings | 25300 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |