📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-03-29 19:00 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-03-29 (built 19:00 UTC), 241 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk 
  •  confidence z=-0.20
  •  euphoria z=+0.27
  •  fear z=+1.35
  •  frustration z=-0.49
  •  greed z=-0.38
  •  hope z=-0.85
  •  optimism z=+0.03
  •  panic z=+0.67
  •  skepticism z=+0.36
  •  uncertainty z=+0.57
2. energy_insecurity   fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.39
  •  euphoria z=+0.11
  •  fear z=+2.00
  •  frustration z=-0.46
  •  greed z=-0.64
  •  hope z=-0.46
  •  optimism z=-0.14
  •  panic z=+0.88
  •  skepticism z=+0.14
  •  uncertainty z=-0.96
3. recession   euphoria 
  •  confidence z=+0.17
  •  euphoria z=+1.51
  •  fear z=+0.57
  •  frustration z=-0.13
  •  greed z=-0.25
  •  hope z=+1.28
  •  optimism z=+1.13
  •  panic z=+1.09
  •  skepticism z=+0.18
  •  uncertainty z=+0.53
4. inflation   euphoria 
  •  confidence z=-0.62
  •  euphoria z=+1.51
  •  fear z=+1.14
  •  frustration z=-0.44
  •  greed z=+0.01
  •  hope z=+0.46
  •  optimism z=+0.96
  •  panic z=+1.15
  •  skepticism z=+0.02
  •  uncertainty z=+0.31
5. technology_paradigm_shift 
  •  confidence z=-0.22
  •  euphoria z=-1.23
  •  fear z=-0.83
  •  frustration z=+0.29
  •  greed z=-1.21
  •  hope z=-0.01
  •  optimism z=+0.10
  •  panic z=+0.54
  •  skepticism z=-0.67
  •  uncertainty z=-0.34

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

commodities_supercycle +0.48σ DoD
+0.48σ vs own history — +18% change, now at 63th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+1.14
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.14
  •  frustration z=-0.43
  •  greed z=-0.36
  •  hope z=-0.37
  •  optimism z=-0.08
  •  panic z=+0.25
  •  skepticism z=-0.92
  •  uncertainty z=-0.18
dollar_strength +0.34σ DoD
+0.34σ vs own history — +26% change, now at 75th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.50
  •  fear z=+0.30
  •  frustration z=+0.15
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+1.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.76
  •  uncertainty z=+1.33
inflation +0.29σ DoD
+0.29σ vs own history — +12% change, now at 90th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+2.31
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.20
  •  frustration z=-0.68
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+1.31
  •  optimism z=+2.08
  •  panic z=+0.45
  •  skepticism z=-0.49
  •  uncertainty z=-0.80

↓ Top Decreases

recession -1.47σ DoD
-1.47σ vs own history — -21% change, now at 90th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.45
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.19
  •  frustration z=-0.21
  •  greed z=+0.07
  •  hope z=+0.38
  •  optimism z=+0.41
  •  panic z=+0.12
  •  skepticism z=-0.61
  •  uncertainty z=-0.37
defense_rearmament -1.23σ DoD
-1.23σ vs own history — -20% change, now at 27th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.09
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+2.18
  •  frustration z=+0.07
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.40
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=-0.68
  •  skepticism z=+0.52
  •  uncertainty z=+0.43
stagflation -1.12σ DoD
-1.12σ vs own history — -29% change, now at 73th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.32
  •  frustration z=-0.76
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.18
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.44
  •  skepticism z=-0.21
  •  uncertainty z=-0.24

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

dollar_strength: +0.80σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.80σ vs own history — +143% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+1.38
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+2.13
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+2.34
  •  skepticism z=+0.94
  •  uncertainty z=+1.59
earnings_miss: +0.61σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.61σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_cut: +0.61σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.61σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00

↓ Top Decreases

defense_rearmament: -1.96σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.96σ vs own history — -42% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.95
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+1.80
  •  frustration z=+0.19
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.42
  •  optimism z=+0.73
  •  panic z=-1.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.29
  •  uncertainty z=+0.15
energy_insecurity: -1.06σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.06σ vs own history — -16% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.98
  •  euphoria z=-0.92
  •  fear z=+1.72
  •  frustration z=-0.04
  •  greed z=-1.58
  •  hope z=-0.24
  •  optimism z=+0.19
  •  panic z=+0.62
  •  skepticism z=+0.90
  •  uncertainty z=-1.02
technology_paradigm_shift: -1.03σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.03σ vs own history — -23% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.20
  •  euphoria z=-1.19
  •  fear z=-0.39
  •  frustration z=+0.25
  •  greed z=-1.76
  •  hope z=+0.54
  •  optimism z=+0.79
  •  panic z=-0.20
  •  skepticism z=-0.47
  •  uncertainty z=-1.59

Narratives to Look Out For

recessionp90

Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.17
  •  euphoria z=+1.51
  •  fear z=+0.57
  •  frustration z=-0.13
  •  greed z=-0.25
  •  hope z=+1.28
  •  optimism z=+1.13
  •  panic z=+1.09
  •  skepticism z=+0.18
  •  uncertainty z=+0.53
inflationp90

Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.62
  •  euphoria z=+1.51
  •  fear z=+1.14
  •  frustration z=-0.44
  •  greed z=+0.01
  •  hope z=+0.46
  •  optimism z=+0.96
  •  panic z=+1.15
  •  skepticism z=+0.02
  •  uncertainty z=+0.31
sector_rotationp86

Attention is at the 86th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-1.62
  •  euphoria z=+0.01
  •  fear z=+0.36
  •  frustration z=-0.30
  •  greed z=-0.79
  •  hope z=-0.02
  •  optimism z=+0.38
  •  panic z=+1.47
  •  skepticism z=+0.48
  •  uncertainty z=+0.66

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear elevated, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: +1.07 — Skepticism z-score: -0.64.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.85.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.72), energy_insecurity (0.76), recession (0.71).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.010.

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p48 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch dollar_strength: WoW rising (+143%)
If trend continues → EM underweight, USD longs.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=+1.07, regime_score=+3.32

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk8.7874-0.7978-1.756248th10
energy_insecurity6.2864+0.2297-1.159553th8
recession4.5447-1.2214+1.606290th10
inflation4.5399+0.4762+1.227090th9
commodities_supercycle4.0533+0.6260-0.113163th8
sector_rotation3.9486-0.5437+0.153686th8
technology_paradigm_shift3.4484-1.0033-1.001225th10
AI_boom3.3228-1.2531-1.557545th9
crypto_adoption3.0727-0.5680-0.206352th4
interest_rate_insecurity2.4244+0.1085+0.554385th9

Database Overview

TableRowsColumns
emotion_scores14,019id, post_id, emotion, score
fetch_runs121id, started_at
narrative_gap_analyses49id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response
narrative_scores9,596id, post_id, narrative, score
post_rankings28,900id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank
posts6,045id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at
sqlite_sequence5name, seq

Posts

6,045 total posts  |  4,585 analyzed

By Subreddit

SubredditPosts
r/ValueInvesting932
r/cryptocurrency864
r/wallstreetbets814
r/investing774
r/economics713
r/stocks690
r/StockMarket477
r/options409
r/finance114
r/TrueReddit114
r/SecurityAnalysis75
r/PoliticalDiscussion69

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-29

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
inflation4.5399+0.4762 (+11.7%)+1.2270 (+37.0%)
recession4.5447-1.2214 (-21.2%)+1.6062 (+54.7%)
interest_rate_insecurity2.4244+0.1085 (+4.7%)+0.5543 (+29.6%)
dollar_strength0.7592+0.1556 (+25.8%)+0.4471 (+143.3%)
stagflation1.4031-0.5836 (-29.4%)+0.8584 (+157.6%)
commodities_supercycle4.0533+0.6260 (+18.3%)-0.1131 (-2.7%)
fed_pivot1.0332+0.0549 (+5.6%)+0.2493 (+31.8%)
energy_transition0.6043-0.0021 (-0.3%)+0.2091 (+52.9%)
demographic_shift0.3867-0.0233 (-5.7%)+0.1642 (+73.8%)
banking_crisis1.3817-0.2994 (-17.8%)+0.2980 (+27.5%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

121 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-03-29 16:00 UTC

Additional Tables

narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows

idanalyzed_atmax_age_daysmax_scorepost_countcommon_narrativenarrative_certaintycommon_emotion
11772708617.26657250.5381Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload.0.85anxiety
21772730380.06461450.5377Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization.0.75anxious
31772751792.982409550.5383Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload.0.75anxious
41772773399.012550850.5387Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline.0.85anxious
51772794990.778048550.5390Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility.0.85anxious determination

sqlite_sequence 5 rows

nameseq
emotion_scores14019
narrative_scores9596
fetch_runs121
post_rankings28900
narrative_gap_analyses49