Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-19 (built 23:15 UTC), 320 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by energy_insecurity, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- energy_insecurity up: +3.92 DoD (+79%), now at 100th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- geopolitical_risk up: +3.08 DoD (+37%), now at 82th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- commodities_supercycle up: +2.98 DoD (+98%), now at 100th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +10.18 WoW (+912%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
- energy_insecurity: +8.55 WoW (+2443%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
- inflation: +5.79 WoW (+1449%); trend accelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) energy_insecurity (p100) 2) commodities_supercycle (p100) 3) recession (p100) 4) banking_crisis (p100) 5) inflation (p95)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+1.00), skepticism neutral (z=+0.48).
- Fear is most concentrated in defense_rearmament (avg fear 0.80).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): energy_insecurity (0.70), commodities_supercycle (0.68), recession (0.65).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.045 vs 7d baseline 0.078).
Watchlist
- Watch energy_insecurity: if it remains above p90 for 3 days → review positioning.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+912%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+1.00, regime_score=+2.74
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.2965 | +3.0807 | +10.1800 | 82th | 9 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.9018 | +3.9222 | +8.5518 | 100th | 9 | |
| inflation | 6.1944 | -0.6380 | +5.7944 | 95th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 6.0330 | +2.9796 | +5.6330 | 100th | 9 | |
| recession | 5.1311 | +0.6910 | +4.5524 | 100th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 4.9931 | -1.8005 | +4.6765 | 90th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.4049 | -1.2382 | +4.0716 | 83th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.0280 | -0.6587 | +3.6918 | 64th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.4763 | -0.4611 | +3.4096 | 91th | 6 | |
| stagflation | 2.9794 | -0.0253 | +2.9339 | 95th | 9 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 9,013 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 82 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 26 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 5,993 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 19,540 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,458 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,458 total posts | 2,998 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 713 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 635 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 611 |
| r/investing | 578 |
| r/economics | 538 |
| r/stocks | 499 |
| r/StockMarket | 363 |
| r/options | 306 |
| r/finance | 97 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 61 |
| r/TrueReddit | 33 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 24 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-19
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.2965 | +3.0807 (+37.5%) | +10.1800 (+911.8%) |
| energy_insecurity | 8.9018 | +3.9222 (+78.8%) | +8.5518 (+2443.4%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 6.0330 | +2.9796 (+97.6%) | +5.6330 (+1408.3%) |
| inflation | 6.1944 | -0.6380 (-9.3%) | +5.7944 (+1448.6%) |
| recession | 5.1311 | +0.6910 (+15.6%) | +4.5524 (+786.7%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 4.9931 | -1.8005 (-26.5%) | +4.6765 (+1476.8%) |
| AI_boom | 4.0280 | -0.6587 (-14.1%) | +3.6918 (+1098.2%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.4049 | -1.2382 (-21.9%) | +4.0716 (+1221.5%) |
| crypto_adoption | 3.4763 | -0.4611 (-11.7%) | +3.4096 (+5114.4%) |
| stagflation | 2.9794 | -0.0253 (-0.8%) | +2.9339 (+6454.6%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
82 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-19 23:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 26 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 9013 |
| narrative_scores | 5993 |
| fetch_runs | 82 |
| post_rankings | 19540 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 26 |