Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-21 (built 17:15 UTC), 246 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by defense_rearmament, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk down: -2.92 DoD (-24%), now at 67th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.71)
- ⚠️ skepticism rising fast (z=+1.90)
- ⚠️ euphoria rising fast (z=+1.79)
- AI_boom down: -2.61 DoD (-40%), now at 50th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- technology_paradigm_shift down: -2.35 DoD (-34%), now at 75th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +7.84 WoW (+581%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.71)
- ⚠️ skepticism rising fast (z=+1.90)
- ⚠️ euphoria rising fast (z=+1.79)
- energy_insecurity: +5.10 WoW (+651%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- technology_paradigm_shift: +3.94 WoW (+639%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) defense_rearmament (p100) 2) inflation (p88) 3) fed_pivot (p88) 4) sector_rotation (p85) 5) energy_insecurity (p82)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.29), skepticism neutral (z=+0.44).
- Fear is most concentrated in recession (avg fear 0.73).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): defense_rearmament (0.70), inflation (0.69), fed_pivot (0.70).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.013 vs 7d baseline 0.065).
Watchlist
- Watch defense_rearmament: if it remains above p90 for 3 days → review positioning.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+581%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.29, regime_score=-1.37
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.1879 | -2.9217 | +7.8397 | 67th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 5.8803 | -2.3461 | +5.0970 | 82th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.5593 | -2.3541 | +3.9427 | 75th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 3.8654 | -2.6062 | +3.3454 | 50th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.8165 | -1.0644 | +3.4208 | 88th | 9 | |
| recession | 3.1483 | -1.4216 | +2.6410 | 67th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.9980 | -0.4782 | +2.7642 | 85th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.9803 | -1.6083 | +2.6494 | 73th | 8 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.7389 | -1.6834 | +2.7025 | 62th | 6 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.2446 | -0.9654 | +1.9979 | 75th | 10 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 9,872 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 89 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 33 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 6,663 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 21,220 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,737 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,737 total posts | 3,277 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 754 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 671 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 653 |
| r/investing | 613 |
| r/economics | 568 |
| r/stocks | 533 |
| r/StockMarket | 384 |
| r/options | 321 |
| r/finance | 99 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 65 |
| r/TrueReddit | 46 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 30 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-21
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.1879 | -2.9217 (-24.1%) | +7.8397 (+581.5%) |
| energy_insecurity | 5.8803 | -2.3461 (-28.5%) | +5.0970 (+650.7%) |
| inflation | 3.8165 | -1.0644 (-21.8%) | +3.4208 (+864.5%) |
| sector_rotation | 2.9980 | -0.4782 (-13.8%) | +2.7642 (+1182.2%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.5593 | -2.3541 (-34.1%) | +3.9427 (+639.4%) |
| recession | 3.1483 | -1.4216 (-31.1%) | +2.6410 (+520.7%) |
| AI_boom | 3.8654 | -2.6062 (-40.3%) | +3.3454 (+643.4%) |
| crypto_adoption | 2.7389 | -1.6834 (-38.1%) | +2.7025 (+7432.0%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.9803 | -1.6083 (-35.0%) | +2.6494 (+800.5%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.2446 | -0.9654 (-30.1%) | +1.9979 (+810.0%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
89 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-21 17:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 33 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 9872 |
| narrative_scores | 6663 |
| fetch_runs | 89 |
| post_rankings | 21220 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 33 |