Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-13 (built 04:15 UTC), 200 posts today across 11 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk uncertainty ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.24
- euphoria z=+0.35
- fear z=-1.32
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-0.80
- hope z=-0.61
- optimism z=-1.56
- panic z=+1.07
- skepticism z=-1.48
- uncertainty z=-2.05
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ frustration ↓
- confidence z=-1.61
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-1.07
- frustration z=-1.86
- greed z=-1.26
- hope z=-1.95
- optimism z=-1.77
- panic z=+1.03
- skepticism z=-1.55
- uncertainty z=-1.21
3. technology_paradigm_shift fear ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.05
- euphoria z=+1.00
- fear z=-2.33
- frustration z=-0.04
- greed z=+0.35
- hope z=+0.21
- optimism z=-2.13
- panic z=+0.81
- skepticism z=+1.12
- uncertainty z=-0.72
4. AI_boom fear ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.29
- euphoria z=+1.09
- fear z=-2.28
- frustration z=-0.90
- greed z=-0.22
- hope z=-0.29
- optimism z=-1.72
- panic z=+1.07
- skepticism z=-0.28
- uncertainty z=-1.01
5. inflation confidence ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-1.90
- euphoria z=+1.08
- fear z=-1.07
- frustration z=-0.66
- greed z=+1.12
- hope z=-0.35
- optimism z=-1.44
- panic z=+0.78
- skepticism z=-0.26
- uncertainty z=-1.86
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.61σ DoD
-0.61σ vs own history — -3% change, now at 7th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.09
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.09
- frustration z=+0.08
- greed z=-0.05
- hope z=+0.06
- optimism z=+0.01
- panic z=+0.29
- skepticism z=-0.09
- uncertainty z=-0.04
technology_paradigm_shift ↓ -0.59σ DoD
-0.59σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.08
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=-0.26
- frustration z=-0.02
- greed z=+0.07
- hope z=+0.04
- optimism z=-0.03
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.45
- uncertainty z=-0.08
banking_crisis ↓ -0.55σ DoD
-0.55σ vs own history — -3% change, now at 64th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.07
- fear z=-0.01
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.10
- optimism z=+0.15
- panic z=+0.17
- skepticism z=-0.03
- uncertainty z=+0.03
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
demographic_shift: +1.22σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.22σ vs own history — +61% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.69
- fear z=+0.54
- frustration z=+3.01
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.23
- optimism z=-0.73
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.95
- uncertainty z=+1.45
stagflation: +1.16σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.16σ vs own history — +115% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.20
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.90
- frustration z=+0.16
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.71
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.15
- uncertainty z=-0.74
deglobalisation: +1.09σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.09σ vs own history — +17% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.51
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.66
- frustration z=+0.18
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.78
- optimism z=-0.95
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.74
- uncertainty z=-1.57
↓ Top Decreases
dollar_strength: -2.18σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.18σ vs own history — -61% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.58
- fear z=-1.96
- frustration z=+0.97
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.07
- optimism z=-0.08
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=-2.33
- uncertainty z=-1.92
commodities_supercycle: -1.08σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.08σ vs own history — -17% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.27
- frustration z=-1.34
- greed z=-0.08
- hope z=+0.33
- optimism z=-1.77
- panic z=+0.88
- skepticism z=-0.98
- uncertainty z=+0.04
energy_insecurity: -1.05σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.05σ vs own history — -12% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.13
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.14
- frustration z=-1.25
- greed z=-1.20
- hope z=-2.51
- optimism z=-2.16
- panic z=+0.92
- skepticism z=-0.52
- uncertainty z=-0.01
Narratives to Look Out For
demographic_shiftp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.06
- fear z=-0.56
- frustration z=+0.31
- greed z=+0.94
- hope z=+0.50
- optimism z=-0.37
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.21
- uncertainty z=-0.26
banking_crisisp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.46
- fear z=-1.79
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=-1.28
- hope z=+0.31
- optimism z=-1.11
- panic z=+0.97
- skepticism z=-0.80
- uncertainty z=-1.41
stagflationp79
Attention is at the 79th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.97
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.18
- frustration z=-1.11
- greed z=-0.34
- hope z=+1.69
- optimism z=+0.68
- panic z=+0.88
- skepticism z=-0.85
- uncertainty z=-1.59
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.31 — Skepticism z-score: +0.45.
Fear most concentrated in recession
Average fear score for recession: 0.68.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.56), energy_insecurity (0.64), technology_paradigm_shift (0.35).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p18 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch demographic_shift: WoW rising (+61%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.31, regime_score=-0.63
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.0975 | -0.2662 | -1.0796 | 7th | 11 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.8716 | -0.1642 | -0.9386 | 11th | 11 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.9439 | -0.2370 | +0.9361 | 4th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 4.2847 | -0.2163 | +0.6295 | 4th | 6 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.8916 | -0.0454 | -0.8104 | 21th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.8400 | -0.1888 | +0.2308 | 7th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.9854 | -0.1307 | +0.0040 | 4th | 4 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.2177 | -0.0657 | +0.5627 | 64th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.2156 | -0.1025 | -0.9603 | 4th | 7 | |
| recession | 2.1314 | -0.0880 | -0.7759 | 4th | 7 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-13
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 41.1014 | +30.8608 (+301.4%) | +28.6762 (+230.8%) |
| energy_insecurity | 28.9425 | +21.7140 (+300.4%) | +20.1401 (+228.8%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 19.1291 | +15.0019 (+363.5%) | +13.8194 (+260.3%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 13.9917 | +9.1810 (+190.8%) | +9.4408 (+207.4%) |
| AI_boom | 11.5004 | +7.5534 (+191.4%) | +7.5009 (+187.5%) |
| banking_crisis | 8.6115 | +6.2660 (+267.2%) | +6.6841 (+346.8%) |
| inflation | 10.5924 | +7.0436 (+198.5%) | +6.1443 (+138.1%) |
| crypto_adoption | 9.1604 | +6.2930 (+219.5%) | +6.3862 (+230.2%) |
| stagflation | 6.5863 | +4.6811 (+245.7%) | +5.3623 (+438.1%) |
| defense_rearmament | 6.6833 | +4.7113 (+238.9%) | +5.0085 (+299.1%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-13
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | exhaustion | 1.372 | 0.621 | 0.403 | 0.561 | 0.266 | 0.173 |
| stagflation | acceleration | 1.208 | 0.538 | 0.395 | 0.486 | 0.497 | 0.018 |
| commodities_supercycle | exhaustion | 1.133 | 0.468 | 0.364 | 0.345 | 0.548 | 0.107 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | acceleration | 1.098 | 0.467 | 0.375 | 0.234 | 0.694 | 0.072 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 1.022 | 0.425 | 0.366 | 0.225 | 0.684 | 0.090 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 1.016 | 0.428 | 0.372 | 0.215 | 0.699 | 0.086 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 0.925 | 0.435 | 0.420 | 0.209 | 0.746 | 0.046 |
| demographic_shift | exhaustion | 0.895 | 0.515 | 0.526 | 0.562 | 0.438 | 0.000 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.874 | 0.392 | 0.398 | 0.356 | 0.631 | 0.013 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.815 | 0.440 | 0.491 | 0.140 | 0.830 | 0.030 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 0.794 | 0.408 | 0.464 | 0.332 | 0.656 | 0.012 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 0.723 | 0.375 | 0.469 | 0.177 | 0.823 | 0.000 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.714 | 0.418 | 0.535 | 0.235 | 0.765 | 0.000 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.710 | 0.387 | 0.494 | 0.201 | 0.792 | 0.007 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.669 | 0.332 | 0.447 | 0.199 | 0.801 | 0.000 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.658 | 0.378 | 0.525 | 0.247 | 0.744 | 0.009 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.636 | 0.350 | 0.500 | 0.211 | 0.789 | 0.000 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.565 | 0.321 | 0.517 | 0.200 | 0.800 | 0.000 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.440 | 0.262 | 0.545 | 0.319 | 0.681 | 0.000 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.438 | 0.257 | 0.537 | 0.195 | 0.805 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
179 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-13 04:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.07
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -0.704 | -0.282 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.306 | -0.392 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.519 | -0.152 |
| Average Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.230 | -0.246 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.