Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-11 (built 11:19 UTC), 206 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.15
- euphoria z=+0.28
- fear z=-1.75
- frustration z=-0.45
- greed z=-0.25
- hope z=-1.06
- optimism z=-2.42
- panic z=+0.69
- skepticism z=-0.61
- uncertainty z=-1.29
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.09
- euphoria z=+0.89
- fear z=-1.86
- frustration z=-1.22
- greed z=-0.95
- hope z=-2.52
- optimism z=-1.99
- panic z=+0.52
- skepticism z=-0.79
- uncertainty z=-1.38
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.34
- euphoria z=+1.98
- fear z=-1.30
- frustration z=-0.97
- greed z=-0.11
- hope z=+0.47
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.72
- uncertainty z=+0.16
4. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.39
- euphoria z=+2.13
- fear z=-1.38
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-0.29
- hope z=-0.29
- optimism z=-1.97
- panic z=+0.93
- skepticism z=-0.82
- uncertainty z=+0.25
5. commodities_supercycle optimism ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.19
- euphoria z=-0.30
- fear z=-1.87
- frustration z=-1.81
- greed z=+0.05
- hope z=+1.50
- optimism z=-2.33
- panic z=+0.34
- skepticism z=-0.54
- uncertainty z=-1.17
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
banking_crisis ↑ +0.19σ DoD
+0.19σ vs own history — +5% change, now at 97th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.02
- fear z=-0.12
- frustration z=+0.21
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.40
- optimism z=-0.61
- panic z=+0.23
- skepticism z=+0.80
- uncertainty z=-0.09
deglobalisation ↑ +0.04σ DoD
+0.04σ vs own history — +5% change, now at 50th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.15
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.19
- frustration z=+0.49
- greed z=-0.12
- hope z=+0.88
- optimism z=+0.13
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.01
- uncertainty z=-1.51
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament ↓ -1.51σ DoD
-1.51σ vs own history — -14% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.01
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.25
- frustration z=+0.29
- greed z=-0.07
- hope z=+0.03
- optimism z=-0.20
- panic z=+0.25
- skepticism z=-0.41
- uncertainty z=+0.17
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.35σ DoD
-1.35σ vs own history — -12% change, now at 14th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.23
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.03
- frustration z=-0.16
- greed z=+0.11
- hope z=-0.41
- optimism z=-0.70
- panic z=+0.32
- skepticism z=+0.26
- uncertainty z=-0.20
energy_insecurity ↓ -1.32σ DoD
-1.32σ vs own history — -12% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.13
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.05
- frustration z=-0.37
- greed z=+0.27
- hope z=-1.40
- optimism z=-0.52
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=+0.07
- uncertainty z=-0.35
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +0.96σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.96σ vs own history — +218% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.99
- frustration z=-1.34
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.50
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.48
- skepticism z=-1.61
- uncertainty z=-2.08
inflation: +0.29σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.29σ vs own history — +50% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.54
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.97
- frustration z=-1.28
- greed z=+0.53
- hope z=-2.13
- optimism z=-1.38
- panic z=+1.99
- skepticism z=-0.56
- uncertainty z=-1.18
technology_paradigm_shift: +0.14σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.14σ vs own history — +32% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.17
- euphoria z=+2.18
- fear z=-0.75
- frustration z=-1.92
- greed z=+2.66
- hope z=+0.30
- optimism z=-0.53
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.41
- uncertainty z=+1.36
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation: -1.04σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.04σ vs own history — -30% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.42
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.89
- uncertainty z=-0.20
ex_usa_trade: -0.91σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.91σ vs own history — -43% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.97
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.18
- frustration z=-1.26
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.52
- optimism z=+0.84
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.34
- uncertainty z=-0.89
dollar_strength: -0.84σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.84σ vs own history — -7% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.87
- fear z=-0.88
- frustration z=+0.89
- greed z=-0.21
- hope z=+2.78
- optimism z=+1.21
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.58
- uncertainty z=-3.14
Narratives to Look Out For
AI_boomp89
Attention is at the 89th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.39
- euphoria z=+2.13
- fear z=-1.38
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-0.29
- hope z=-0.29
- optimism z=-1.97
- panic z=+0.93
- skepticism z=-0.82
- uncertainty z=+0.25
stagflationp88
Attention is at the 88th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.85
- euphoria z=+1.00
- fear z=-1.72
- frustration z=-1.52
- greed z=-0.25
- hope z=+2.09
- optimism z=+0.52
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=-1.67
- uncertainty z=-1.93
technology_paradigm_shiftp86
Attention is at the 86th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.34
- euphoria z=+1.98
- fear z=-1.30
- frustration z=-0.97
- greed z=-0.11
- hope z=+0.47
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.72
- uncertainty z=+0.16
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.41 — Skepticism z-score: -0.07.
Fear most concentrated in recession
Average fear score for recession: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.57), energy_insecurity (0.54), technology_paradigm_shift (0.50).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.014 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.6%), energy_insecurity (-3.6%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p31 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+218%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.41, regime_score=-1.15
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.8096 | -1.3671 | -0.3745 | 14th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.7577 | -0.9593 | -0.0610 | 11th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.1698 | -0.5585 | +1.2585 | 17th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.7798 | -0.3979 | +1.1996 | 32th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.2110 | -0.2915 | +1.4041 | 41th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.8290 | -0.5515 | -0.3310 | 11th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.3469 | -0.4657 | -0.2488 | 4th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8852 | -0.3053 | +0.1025 | 17th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.1431 | -0.1534 | -0.8489 | 14th | 9 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9673 | -0.0965 | +0.4661 | 45th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-11
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI_boom | 7.3741 | +1.4785 (+25.1%) | +4.2033 (+132.6%) |
| inflation | 6.9006 | +1.3955 (+25.3%) | +3.8853 (+128.9%) |
| banking_crisis | 4.1137 | +2.2548 (+121.3%) | +2.7592 (+203.7%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 7.0992 | +0.8788 (+14.1%) | +3.5117 (+97.9%) |
| stagflation | 3.4904 | +1.0283 (+41.8%) | +3.1396 (+895.0%) |
| geopolitical_risk | 11.3676 | +1.5532 (+15.8%) | +2.2293 (+24.4%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 3.4957 | +1.1198 (+47.1%) | +1.9371 (+124.3%) |
| energy_insecurity | 7.7115 | +0.9642 (+14.3%) | +1.3334 (+20.9%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.0056 | +0.6257 (+18.5%) | +1.2930 (+47.7%) |
| recession | 3.4774 | +1.2317 (+54.8%) | +0.4061 (+13.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
172 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-11 10:00 UTC