Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-10 (built 04:15 UTC), 185 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.23
- euphoria z=+0.26
- fear z=-1.78
- frustration z=+0.43
- greed z=-0.30
- hope z=-0.04
- optimism z=-0.89
- panic z=-0.00
- skepticism z=-0.54
- uncertainty z=-1.08
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.10
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-1.90
- frustration z=-0.62
- greed z=-1.35
- hope z=+0.08
- optimism z=-0.77
- panic z=-0.55
- skepticism z=-0.88
- uncertainty z=-1.10
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.48
- euphoria z=+1.97
- fear z=-1.49
- frustration z=-0.40
- greed z=+0.47
- hope z=+0.61
- optimism z=-0.03
- panic z=+0.81
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=-0.10
4. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.52
- euphoria z=-0.11
- fear z=-2.17
- frustration z=-1.56
- greed z=-1.14
- hope z=+0.53
- optimism z=-1.93
- panic z=-1.25
- skepticism z=-0.55
- uncertainty z=-1.10
5. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.44
- euphoria z=+2.21
- fear z=-1.51
- frustration z=-0.74
- greed z=+0.39
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-1.81
- panic z=+1.07
- skepticism z=-0.49
- uncertainty z=+0.32
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear ↑ +0.08σ DoD
+0.08σ vs own history — +5% change, now at 67th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.41
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.18
- frustration z=-0.28
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.41
- optimism z=+1.41
- skepticism z=-0.26
- uncertainty z=-0.25
↓ Top Decreases
geopolitical_risk ↓ -0.90σ DoD
-0.90σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 14th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.05
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.10
- frustration z=-0.05
- greed z=-0.23
- hope z=-0.19
- optimism z=-0.31
- panic z=-0.07
- skepticism z=-0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.06
energy_insecurity ↓ -0.85σ DoD
-0.85σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.09
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.12
- frustration z=-0.18
- greed z=-0.11
- hope z=-0.12
- optimism z=-0.18
- panic z=-0.09
- skepticism z=+0.04
- uncertainty z=-0.02
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.78σ DoD
-0.78σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.02
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.14
- frustration z=-0.00
- greed z=-0.21
- hope z=+0.08
- optimism z=+0.04
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.25
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
luddite_fear: +3.25σ WoW — trend accelerating
+3.25σ vs own history — +64727399821% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
demographic_shift: +0.74σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.74σ vs own history — +101% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.02
- frustration z=-1.37
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.61
- uncertainty z=+0.07
stagflation: +0.31σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.31σ vs own history — +65% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.51
- frustration z=-1.33
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+3.53
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.34
- skepticism z=-3.27
- uncertainty z=-2.51
↓ Top Decreases
dollar_strength: -1.91σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.91σ vs own history — -46% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.92
- fear z=-0.74
- frustration z=+0.89
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.10
- optimism z=+0.83
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.50
- uncertainty z=-2.22
ex_usa_trade: -1.29σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.29σ vs own history — -60% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.77
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.45
- frustration z=-1.16
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.74
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.63
- uncertainty z=+0.43
deglobalisation: -1.16σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.16σ vs own history — -34% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.88
- frustration z=-0.40
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.05
- uncertainty z=-0.12
Narratives to Look Out For
luddite_fearp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.71
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.67
- frustration z=-0.71
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.71
- optimism z=+0.71
- skepticism z=+0.44
- uncertainty z=-0.70
demographic_shiftp92
Attention is at the 92th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.59
- fear z=-1.60
- frustration z=-0.55
- greed z=+0.94
- hope z=+0.55
- optimism z=+0.83
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.70
- uncertainty z=-0.95
trade_protectionismp90
Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.12
- fear z=+1.43
- frustration z=-0.12
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.18
- optimism z=+0.12
- panic z=+0.70
- skepticism z=+1.24
- uncertainty z=-0.23
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.44 — Skepticism z-score: -0.03.
Fear most concentrated in banking_crisis
Average fear score for banking_crisis: 0.65.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.50), energy_insecurity (0.50), technology_paradigm_shift (0.43).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.015 vs 7-day baseline 0.010.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.4%), luddite_fear (+2.7%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p82 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch luddite_fear: WoW rising (+64727399821%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.44, regime_score=-1.78
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.8736 | -0.6653 | +0.6439 | 14th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.2439 | -0.4428 | +0.9846 | 11th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.0585 | -0.1778 | +0.8233 | 18th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.4955 | -0.2276 | +0.4825 | 11th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.3031 | -0.1567 | +0.3134 | 11th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.0483 | -0.2148 | +0.1404 | 4th | 8 | |
| inflation | 3.4079 | -0.0919 | +0.8094 | 25th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8901 | -0.1111 | +0.0374 | 18th | 7 | |
| recession | 2.2335 | -0.1139 | -0.6793 | 14th | 8 | |
| trade_protectionism | 1.7136 | -0.0923 | +0.3780 | 20th | 7 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-10
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 28.1320 | +16.2376 (+136.5%) | +17.2466 (+158.4%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 18.0726 | +11.9378 (+194.6%) | +14.4542 (+399.5%) |
| energy_insecurity | 20.6338 | +12.3418 (+148.8%) | +13.8700 (+205.1%) |
| inflation | 13.7793 | +10.4935 (+319.4%) | +11.3270 (+461.9%) |
| AI_boom | 15.0568 | +9.7663 (+184.6%) | +11.6327 (+339.7%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 12.0524 | +7.4120 (+159.7%) | +8.0489 (+201.0%) |
| sector_rotation | 9.7795 | +6.9375 (+244.1%) | +7.4629 (+322.2%) |
| crypto_adoption | 10.2839 | +5.5543 (+117.4%) | +6.6664 (+184.3%) |
| stagflation | 6.9302 | +5.5798 (+413.2%) | +6.3398 (+1073.9%) |
| banking_crisis | 6.7554 | +5.6940 (+536.5%) | +5.0422 (+294.3%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
167 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-10 04:00 UTC