📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-09 04:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-09 (built 04:15 UTC), 187 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.25
  •  euphoria z=+0.26
  •  fear z=-1.61
  •  frustration z=+0.11
  •  greed z=+0.16
  •  hope z=+0.89
  •  optimism z=+0.38
  •  panic z=+0.14
  •  skepticism z=-0.72
  •  uncertainty z=-1.17
2. energy_insecurity   confidence    fear 
  •  confidence z=-2.17
  •  euphoria z=+1.11
  •  fear z=-1.54
  •  frustration z=-0.77
  •  greed z=+0.42
  •  hope z=+0.51
  •  optimism z=-0.47
  •  panic z=-0.13
  •  skepticism z=-1.04
  •  uncertainty z=-1.14
3. commodities_supercycle   confidence    fear 
  •  confidence z=-2.61
  •  euphoria z=-0.11
  •  fear z=-1.93
  •  frustration z=-1.54
  •  greed z=+0.54
  •  hope z=+1.30
  •  optimism z=+0.69
  •  panic z=-0.95
  •  skepticism z=-0.62
  •  uncertainty z=-1.33
4. technology_paradigm_shift 
  •  confidence z=+0.70
  •  euphoria z=+1.25
  •  fear z=-1.01
  •  frustration z=-0.62
  •  greed z=+0.79
  •  hope z=+0.29
  •  optimism z=+0.45
  •  panic z=+0.81
  •  skepticism z=-0.80
  •  uncertainty z=-0.10
5. AI_boom   euphoria 
  •  confidence z=+0.54
  •  euphoria z=+1.54
  •  fear z=-0.31
  •  frustration z=-0.73
  •  greed z=+0.41
  •  hope z=-0.09
  •  optimism z=-0.92
  •  panic z=+1.07
  •  skepticism z=-0.49
  •  uncertainty z=+0.51

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

luddite_fear +2.15σ DoD
+2.15σ vs own history — +53% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
  •  fear z=-1.41
  •  frustration z=+1.41
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.41
  •  uncertainty z=-1.41

↓ Top Decreases

geopolitical_risk -0.78σ DoD
-0.78σ vs own history — -3% change, now at 22th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.03
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.05
  •  frustration z=+0.10
  •  greed z=+0.10
  •  hope z=-0.04
  •  optimism z=-0.06
  •  panic z=-0.06
  •  skepticism z=+0.17
  •  uncertainty z=+0.02
defense_rearmament -0.75σ DoD
-0.75σ vs own history — -4% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.01
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.04
  •  frustration z=+0.19
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.00
  •  optimism z=-0.04
  •  panic z=-0.16
  •  skepticism z=+0.12
  •  uncertainty z=+0.11
energy_insecurity -0.72σ DoD
-0.72σ vs own history — -3% change, now at 19th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.11
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.11
  •  frustration z=+0.06
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.06
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=-0.12
  •  skepticism z=+0.13
  •  uncertainty z=+0.01

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

luddite_fear: +3.71σ WoW — trend accelerating
+3.71σ vs own history — +8573456641% change over the last 3 days.
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
demographic_shift: +1.04σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.04σ vs own history — +186% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+2.73
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+2.33
  •  optimism z=+2.25
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-1.31
  •  uncertainty z=-0.14
trade_protectionism: +0.75σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.75σ vs own history — +103% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-2.31
  •  fear z=+0.80
  •  frustration z=-1.64
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-1.42
  •  optimism z=+1.68
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+2.23
  •  uncertainty z=-0.26

↓ Top Decreases

AI_boom: -0.92σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.92σ vs own history — -23% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.03
  •  euphoria z=+2.26
  •  fear z=+0.71
  •  frustration z=+0.08
  •  greed z=+0.01
  •  hope z=+0.05
  •  optimism z=-0.94
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-1.81
  •  uncertainty z=+1.79
ex_usa_trade: -0.86σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.86σ vs own history — -36% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+1.06
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.61
  •  frustration z=-0.51
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+1.31
  •  optimism z=-0.61
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.88
  •  uncertainty z=-0.90
crypto_adoption: -0.86σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.86σ vs own history — -12% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.49
  •  euphoria z=+2.03
  •  fear z=+1.05
  •  frustration z=-1.85
  •  greed z=-0.21
  •  hope z=-2.40
  •  optimism z=-1.52
  •  panic z=-2.40
  •  skepticism z=-0.64
  •  uncertainty z=+0.48

Narratives to Look Out For

eu_us_relationsp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+1.26
  •  fear z=+1.24
  •  frustration z=+1.04
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-1.06
  •  optimism z=+0.41
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.72
  •  uncertainty z=+0.10
luddite_fearp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  fear z=-0.71
  •  frustration z=+0.71
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.71
  •  uncertainty z=-0.71
energy_insecurityp96

Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-2.17
  •  euphoria z=+1.11
  •  fear z=-1.54
  •  frustration z=-0.77
  •  greed z=+0.42
  •  hope z=+0.51
  •  optimism z=-0.47
  •  panic z=-0.13
  •  skepticism z=-1.04
  •  uncertainty z=-1.14

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.12 — Skepticism z-score: -0.14.
Fear most concentrated in energy_transition
Average fear score for energy_transition: 0.60.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.53), energy_insecurity (0.54), commodities_supercycle (0.55).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.013 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p89 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch luddite_fear: WoW rising (+8573456641%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-1.12, regime_score=-0.66

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 260dBreadth
geopolitical_risk12.7234-0.4600+1.149322th10
energy_insecurity8.7844-0.2970+1.029619th10
commodities_supercycle4.6529-0.1527+0.630623th10
technology_paradigm_shift4.1985-0.1392-0.653315th9
crypto_adoption3.6959-0.1009-0.50244th9
inflation3.5489-0.1650+0.804219th8
AI_boom3.5223-0.1069-1.032912th9
sector_rotation3.0334-0.1269-0.355519th9
recession2.5050-0.1434-0.627415th9
trade_protectionism1.5987-0.0169+0.812867th8

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-09

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
geopolitical_risk44.7134+29.2731 (+189.6%)+32.4745 (+265.3%)
energy_insecurity32.0592+21.2115 (+195.5%)+23.8490 (+290.5%)
commodities_supercycle17.2469+11.9420 (+225.1%)+12.5670 (+268.5%)
technology_paradigm_shift15.4800+11.3159 (+271.8%)+10.2630 (+196.7%)
crypto_adoption14.8758+10.5026 (+240.2%)+10.7862 (+263.7%)
AI_boom13.5586+10.2561 (+310.6%)+8.5764 (+172.1%)
inflation10.3580+6.5684 (+173.3%)+8.0971 (+358.1%)
sector_rotation9.6659+6.7068 (+226.7%)+6.4846 (+203.8%)
eu_us_relations7.5154+6.4676 (+617.2%)+6.6354 (+754.0%)
trade_protectionism7.9736+5.7784 (+263.2%)+6.4330 (+417.6%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

163 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-09 04:00 UTC