📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-10 16:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-10 (built 16:15 UTC), 266 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   optimism    fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.08
  •  euphoria z=+0.29
  •  fear z=-1.87
  •  frustration z=-0.07
  •  greed z=-0.70
  •  hope z=-0.75
  •  optimism z=-1.88
  •  panic z=-0.02
  •  skepticism z=-0.84
  •  uncertainty z=-1.02
2. energy_insecurity   confidence    fear 
  •  confidence z=-2.31
  •  euphoria z=+0.73
  •  fear z=-2.03
  •  frustration z=-1.10
  •  greed z=-1.63
  •  hope z=-0.91
  •  optimism z=-1.40
  •  panic z=-0.58
  •  skepticism z=-0.97
  •  uncertainty z=-1.11
3. technology_paradigm_shift   euphoria 
  •  confidence z=+0.49
  •  euphoria z=+2.33
  •  fear z=-1.50
  •  frustration z=-0.49
  •  greed z=+0.24
  •  hope z=+0.64
  •  optimism z=-0.20
  •  panic z=+0.83
  •  skepticism z=-0.71
  •  uncertainty z=+0.03
4. commodities_supercycle   confidence    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-2.68
  •  euphoria z=-0.44
  •  fear z=-2.16
  •  frustration z=-1.98
  •  greed z=-1.49
  •  hope z=+0.38
  •  optimism z=-2.64
  •  panic z=-1.25
  •  skepticism z=-0.58
  •  uncertainty z=-0.95
5. AI_boom   euphoria    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-0.34
  •  euphoria z=+2.46
  •  fear z=-1.56
  •  frustration z=-0.85
  •  greed z=+0.09
  •  hope z=-0.03
  •  optimism z=-2.05
  •  panic z=+0.82
  •  skepticism z=-0.65
  •  uncertainty z=+0.31

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

dollar_strength +0.90σ DoD
+0.90σ vs own history — +40% change, now at 89th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+1.32
  •  fear z=-0.20
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-1.14
  •  uncertainty z=-1.00
stagflation +0.55σ DoD
+0.55σ vs own history — +20% change, now at 92th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.09
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.54
  •  frustration z=-0.13
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.23
  •  optimism z=-0.51
  •  panic z=-0.11
  •  skepticism z=-0.31
  •  uncertainty z=+0.04
inflation +0.35σ DoD
+0.35σ vs own history — +11% change, now at 86th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.18
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.45
  •  frustration z=-0.40
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-1.70
  •  optimism z=-1.27
  •  panic z=+0.08
  •  skepticism z=-0.27
  •  uncertainty z=-0.11

↓ Top Decreases

geopolitical_risk -1.47σ DoD
-1.47σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 25th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.20
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.21
  •  frustration z=-0.56
  •  greed z=-0.64
  •  hope z=-0.94
  •  optimism z=-1.38
  •  panic z=-0.08
  •  skepticism z=-0.31
  •  uncertainty z=+0.13
crypto_adoption -1.37σ DoD
-1.37σ vs own history — -12% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.24
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.16
  •  frustration z=-0.08
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.12
  •  optimism z=-0.11
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.10
  •  uncertainty z=-1.00
energy_insecurity -1.36σ DoD
-1.36σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 19th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.35
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.28
  •  frustration z=-0.68
  •  greed z=-0.43
  •  hope z=-1.14
  •  optimism z=-0.85
  •  panic z=-0.12
  •  skepticism z=-0.06
  •  uncertainty z=-0.02

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

stagflation: +0.56σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.56σ vs own history — +98% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.77
  •  frustration z=-1.39
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+3.64
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+1.23
  •  skepticism z=-3.49
  •  uncertainty z=-2.47
demographic_shift: +0.47σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.47σ vs own history — +78% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-2.36
  •  frustration z=-1.22
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.44
  •  uncertainty z=-0.26
inflation: +0.26σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.26σ vs own history — +50% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-2.28
  •  euphoria z=+0.03
  •  fear z=-1.44
  •  frustration z=-1.62
  •  greed z=+0.44
  •  hope z=-0.57
  •  optimism z=-0.29
  •  panic z=+0.44
  •  skepticism z=-1.21
  •  uncertainty z=-1.63

↓ Top Decreases

deglobalisation: -1.32σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.32σ vs own history — -43% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.94
  •  frustration z=-0.61
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.13
  •  uncertainty z=+0.71
dollar_strength: -1.32σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.32σ vs own history — -22% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.06
  •  fear z=-0.91
  •  frustration z=+2.31
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+2.52
  •  optimism z=+0.56
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-2.30
  •  uncertainty z=-2.88
ex_usa_trade: -1.13σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.13σ vs own history — -51% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+1.26
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.92
  •  frustration z=-1.01
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+1.02
  •  optimism z=+0.31
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.86
  •  uncertainty z=-1.21

Narratives to Look Out For

technology_paradigm_shiftp93

Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.49
  •  euphoria z=+2.33
  •  fear z=-1.50
  •  frustration z=-0.49
  •  greed z=+0.24
  •  hope z=+0.64
  •  optimism z=-0.20
  •  panic z=+0.83
  •  skepticism z=-0.71
  •  uncertainty z=+0.03
energy_insecurityp85

Attention is at the 85th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-2.31
  •  euphoria z=+0.73
  •  fear z=-2.03
  •  frustration z=-1.10
  •  greed z=-1.63
  •  hope z=-0.91
  •  optimism z=-1.40
  •  panic z=-0.58
  •  skepticism z=-0.97
  •  uncertainty z=-1.11
AI_boomp78

Attention is at the 78th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.34
  •  euphoria z=+2.46
  •  fear z=-1.56
  •  frustration z=-0.85
  •  greed z=+0.09
  •  hope z=-0.03
  •  optimism z=-2.05
  •  panic z=+0.82
  •  skepticism z=-0.65
  •  uncertainty z=+0.31

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.54 — Skepticism z-score: -0.18.
Fear most concentrated in banking_crisis
Average fear score for banking_crisis: 0.63.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.56), energy_insecurity (0.59), technology_paradigm_shift (0.52).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.1%), inflation (+3.1%).

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p64 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+98%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-1.54, regime_score=-1.05

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 260dBreadth
geopolitical_risk11.1063-1.4326-0.123425th10
energy_insecurity7.7552-0.9315+0.495819th10
technology_paradigm_shift5.2079-0.0283+0.972882th10
AI_boom4.5944+0.1346+0.604778th9
commodities_supercycle4.2717-0.4513+0.258826th10
inflation3.8960+0.3961+1.297486th9
crypto_adoption3.7306-0.5326-0.17734th8
sector_rotation2.9728-0.0283+0.120132th7
recession2.1435-0.2039-0.769314th8
interest_rate_insecurity1.7445-0.0071+0.300850th10

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-10

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
inflation6.8801+3.5942 (+109.4%)+4.4277 (+180.5%)
AI_boom7.1563+1.8657 (+35.3%)+3.7322 (+109.0%)
technology_paradigm_shift7.5913+1.4565 (+23.7%)+3.9729 (+109.8%)
stagflation3.0985+1.7481 (+129.4%)+2.5081 (+424.9%)
sector_rotation4.2984+1.4564 (+51.2%)+1.9818 (+85.6%)
energy_insecurity8.7443+0.4524 (+5.5%)+1.9806 (+29.3%)
interest_rate_insecurity2.5499+0.7197 (+39.3%)+1.3110 (+105.8%)
geopolitical_risk12.2393+0.3449 (+2.9%)+1.3539 (+12.4%)
dollar_strength1.6068+1.3256 (+471.4%)+0.4400 (+37.7%)
fed_pivot1.5099+0.4703 (+45.2%)+0.9509 (+170.1%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

169 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-10 16:00 UTC