Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-11 (built 16:15 UTC), 237 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.18
- euphoria z=+0.29
- fear z=-1.85
- frustration z=-0.52
- greed z=-0.20
- hope z=-1.09
- optimism z=-2.54
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.63
- uncertainty z=-1.39
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-2.13
- euphoria z=+0.73
- fear z=-2.02
- frustration z=-1.35
- greed z=-0.84
- hope z=-2.83
- optimism z=-2.22
- panic z=+0.74
- skepticism z=-0.84
- uncertainty z=-1.51
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.25
- euphoria z=+2.00
- fear z=-1.28
- frustration z=-0.61
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-0.30
- optimism z=-1.65
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=-0.15
4. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.41
- euphoria z=+2.19
- fear z=-1.36
- frustration z=-1.11
- greed z=-0.24
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=-1.87
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.77
- uncertainty z=+0.06
5. inflation confidence ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-2.16
- euphoria z=+1.09
- fear z=-1.49
- frustration z=-1.45
- greed z=+1.06
- hope z=-1.36
- optimism z=-0.79
- panic z=+1.00
- skepticism z=-0.77
- uncertainty z=-1.75
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
deglobalisation ↑ +1.07σ DoD
+1.07σ vs own history — +48% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.30
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.28
- frustration z=+0.72
- greed z=-0.18
- hope z=+0.89
- optimism z=-0.67
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.02
- uncertainty z=-2.54
banking_crisis ↑ +0.88σ DoD
+0.88σ vs own history — +14% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.07
- fear z=-0.17
- frustration z=+0.35
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.55
- optimism z=-0.57
- panic z=+0.32
- skepticism z=+1.16
- uncertainty z=-0.12
↓ Top Decreases
energy_insecurity ↓ -1.52σ DoD
-1.52σ vs own history — -15% change, now at 14th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.18
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.24
- frustration z=-0.52
- greed z=+0.39
- hope z=-1.78
- optimism z=-0.80
- panic z=+0.77
- skepticism z=+0.01
- uncertainty z=-0.49
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.51σ DoD
-1.51σ vs own history — -14% change, now at 17th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.27
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.15
- frustration z=-0.24
- greed z=+0.16
- hope z=-0.44
- optimism z=-0.84
- panic z=+0.46
- skepticism z=+0.24
- uncertainty z=-0.32
defense_rearmament ↓ -1.49σ DoD
-1.49σ vs own history — -14% change, now at 14th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.01
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.48
- frustration z=+0.42
- greed z=-0.09
- hope z=+0.21
- optimism z=+0.03
- panic z=+0.35
- skepticism z=-0.88
- uncertainty z=-1.06
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +1.00σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.00σ vs own history — +226% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.87
- frustration z=-1.15
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.53
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.57
- skepticism z=-1.46
- uncertainty z=-2.09
inflation: +0.30σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.30σ vs own history — +51% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.56
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.76
- frustration z=-0.96
- greed z=+0.51
- hope z=-2.21
- optimism z=-1.48
- panic z=+2.10
- skepticism z=-0.37
- uncertainty z=-1.15
AI_boom: +0.13σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.13σ vs own history — +34% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.86
- euphoria z=+2.54
- fear z=-1.47
- frustration z=-1.32
- greed z=+1.47
- hope z=+0.17
- optimism z=-2.23
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.15
- uncertainty z=+1.13
↓ Top Decreases
ex_usa_trade: -0.92σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.92σ vs own history — -43% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.70
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.12
- frustration z=-1.53
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.60
- optimism z=+0.71
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.79
- uncertainty z=-0.87
commodities_supercycle: -0.85σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.85σ vs own history — -12% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.59
- euphoria z=-1.77
- fear z=-1.02
- frustration z=-1.93
- greed z=-0.09
- hope z=+0.30
- optimism z=-2.33
- panic z=+2.86
- skepticism z=+0.06
- uncertainty z=-0.70
dollar_strength: -0.83σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.83σ vs own history — -7% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.05
- fear z=-0.65
- frustration z=+0.83
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+2.88
- optimism z=+1.18
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.39
- uncertainty z=-2.92
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.28
- fear z=-1.77
- frustration z=-1.33
- greed z=-1.38
- hope z=+0.77
- optimism z=-0.90
- panic z=+0.96
- skepticism z=-0.75
- uncertainty z=-1.50
technology_paradigm_shiftp89
Attention is at the 89th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.25
- euphoria z=+2.00
- fear z=-1.28
- frustration z=-0.61
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-0.30
- optimism z=-1.65
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=-0.15
AI_boomp89
Attention is at the 89th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.41
- euphoria z=+2.19
- fear z=-1.36
- frustration z=-1.11
- greed z=-0.24
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=-1.87
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.77
- uncertainty z=+0.06
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.46 — Skepticism z-score: +0.03.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.57), energy_insecurity (0.54), technology_paradigm_shift (0.50).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.014 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.4%), energy_insecurity (-3.7%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p28 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+226%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.46, regime_score=-1.07
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.5703 | -1.6064 | -0.6138 | 17th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.5444 | -1.1726 | -0.2743 | 14th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.1801 | -0.5326 | +1.2894 | 32th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 4.7901 | -0.3876 | +1.2099 | 46th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.2356 | -0.2669 | +1.4287 | 62th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.6540 | -0.7264 | -0.5060 | 11th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.3750 | -0.4375 | -0.2206 | 4th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8360 | -0.3545 | +0.0533 | 14th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.1631 | -0.1334 | -0.8289 | 17th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9709 | -0.0929 | +0.4697 | 52th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-11
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | 3.2908 | +1.4550 (+79.3%) | +1.9663 (+148.5%) |
| AI_boom | 5.9420 | +0.0464 (+0.8%) | +2.7713 (+87.4%) |
| stagflation | 2.7292 | +0.2672 (+10.9%) | +2.3784 (+678.0%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.0993 | -0.1056 (-1.7%) | +2.5318 (+71.0%) |
| inflation | 5.4723 | -0.0328 (-0.6%) | +2.4571 (+81.5%) |
| deglobalisation | 1.2530 | +0.8978 (+252.8%) | +0.7031 (+127.9%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.6367 | +0.2607 (+11.0%) | +1.0780 (+69.2%) |
| crypto_adoption | 3.7133 | +0.3514 (+10.5%) | +0.4299 (+13.1%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.1581 | -0.2218 (-6.6%) | +0.4455 (+16.4%) |
| geopolitical_risk | 9.4765 | -0.3380 (-3.4%) | +0.3381 (+3.7%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-11
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | emergence | 2.107 | 0.789 | 0.324 | 0.790 | 0.000 | 0.237 |
| stagflation | emergence | 1.789 | 0.690 | 0.336 | 0.750 | 0.100 | 0.150 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | crowding | 1.466 | 0.617 | 0.371 | 0.533 | 0.253 | 0.213 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 1.460 | 0.611 | 0.368 | 0.541 | 0.243 | 0.216 |
| deglobalisation | emergence | 1.363 | 0.693 | 0.459 | 0.750 | 0.250 | 0.000 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 1.123 | 0.555 | 0.444 | 0.475 | 0.383 | 0.142 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.990 | 0.497 | 0.452 | 0.320 | 0.552 | 0.128 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.970 | 0.500 | 0.466 | 0.390 | 0.493 | 0.117 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.916 | 0.420 | 0.409 | 0.367 | 0.597 | 0.037 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.841 | 0.457 | 0.493 | 0.608 | 0.392 | 0.000 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 0.747 | 0.393 | 0.476 | 0.222 | 0.690 | 0.089 |
| commodities_supercycle | exhaustion | 0.746 | 0.372 | 0.449 | 0.209 | 0.728 | 0.063 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 0.736 | 0.362 | 0.443 | 0.191 | 0.733 | 0.076 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.723 | 0.393 | 0.494 | 0.329 | 0.671 | 0.000 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.709 | 0.342 | 0.432 | 0.342 | 0.658 | 0.000 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 0.703 | 0.379 | 0.490 | 0.385 | 0.538 | 0.077 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.674 | 0.393 | 0.533 | 0.249 | 0.702 | 0.050 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.574 | 0.335 | 0.534 | 0.207 | 0.793 | 0.000 |
| demographic_shift | exhaustion | 0.523 | 0.335 | 0.590 | 0.354 | 0.646 | 0.000 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.327 | 0.210 | 0.593 | 0.122 | 0.878 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
173 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-11 16:00 UTC