Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-30 (built 22:15 UTC), 333 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk greed ↑
- confidence z=+0.44
- euphoria z=+0.89
- fear z=+0.07
- frustration z=-0.74
- greed z=+1.70
- hope z=+0.27
- optimism z=+0.03
- panic z=+0.96
- skepticism z=+0.90
- uncertainty z=-0.11
2. energy_insecurity greed ↑ frustration ↓
- confidence z=+0.17
- euphoria z=+0.57
- fear z=+0.18
- frustration z=-1.53
- greed z=+1.83
- hope z=+0.86
- optimism z=+0.48
- panic z=+0.98
- skepticism z=+0.41
- uncertainty z=-1.13
3. AI_boom panic ↑ frustration ↓
- confidence z=-0.03
- euphoria z=+0.98
- fear z=-0.97
- frustration z=-2.08
- greed z=-0.15
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=-0.33
- panic z=+2.42
- skepticism z=-0.80
- uncertainty z=-0.63
4. recession
- confidence z=+0.97
- euphoria z=-0.99
- fear z=-0.70
- frustration z=+0.04
- greed z=-0.53
- hope z=+1.30
- optimism z=+0.83
- panic z=+1.18
- skepticism z=+0.30
- uncertainty z=-0.01
5. inflation uncertainty ↓ panic ↑
- confidence z=+1.31
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-0.47
- frustration z=-0.75
- greed z=-0.87
- hope z=+0.95
- optimism z=+1.17
- panic z=+1.58
- skepticism z=+0.19
- uncertainty z=-1.61
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
ex_usa_trade ↑ +1.01σ DoD
+1.01σ vs own history — +59% change, now at 87th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.67
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.26
- frustration z=+0.06
- greed z=-0.26
- hope z=+1.06
- optimism z=+2.82
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=+0.47
fed_pivot ↑ +0.66σ DoD
+0.66σ vs own history — +44% change, now at 93th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.18
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.45
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.16
- optimism z=+0.10
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=-0.26
- uncertainty z=-0.42
AI_boom ↑ +0.60σ DoD
+0.60σ vs own history — +26% change, now at 90th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.36
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.62
- frustration z=-1.27
- greed z=+1.17
- hope z=+0.39
- optimism z=+0.56
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.19
- uncertainty z=-0.75
↓ Top Decreases
recession ↓ -2.02σ DoD
-2.02σ vs own history — -34% change, now at 71th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.77
- euphoria z=-2.17
- fear z=-0.85
- frustration z=+0.04
- greed z=-0.60
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.08
- panic z=+0.04
- skepticism z=-0.22
- uncertainty z=-0.72
inflation ↓ -1.25σ DoD
-1.25σ vs own history — -26% change, now at 86th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.69
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.97
- frustration z=-0.62
- greed z=-1.72
- hope z=+0.32
- optimism z=+0.26
- panic z=+0.29
- skepticism z=-0.33
- uncertainty z=-1.76
stagflation ↓ -1.03σ DoD
-1.03σ vs own history — -28% change, now at 67th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.41
- frustration z=-0.12
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.23
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.10
- skepticism z=-0.01
- uncertainty z=-0.30
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
fed_pivot: +0.77σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.77σ vs own history — +185% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.72
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.22
- frustration z=-0.14
- greed z=-1.10
- hope z=-1.58
- optimism z=-0.40
- panic z=-0.27
- skepticism z=-0.65
- uncertainty z=-0.63
ex_usa_trade: +0.57σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.57σ vs own history — +51% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.37
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.74
- frustration z=+0.82
- greed z=+1.03
- hope z=+0.72
- optimism z=+1.62
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.45
- uncertainty z=-1.50
interest_rate_insecurity: +0.50σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.50σ vs own history — +107% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+2.68
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.70
- frustration z=-0.22
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.28
- optimism z=+1.08
- panic z=+2.64
- skepticism z=+0.88
- uncertainty z=-1.22
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -1.85σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.85σ vs own history — -37% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.87
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.11
- frustration z=-2.59
- greed z=+2.41
- hope z=+0.91
- optimism z=-1.21
- panic z=+1.22
- skepticism z=+2.64
- uncertainty z=+1.27
commodities_supercycle: -1.52σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.52σ vs own history — -28% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.76
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.67
- frustration z=-3.17
- greed z=-0.93
- hope z=-1.91
- optimism z=-0.28
- panic z=+0.41
- skepticism z=-0.12
- uncertainty z=+0.26
energy_insecurity: -1.40σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.40σ vs own history — -24% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.31
- euphoria z=+0.17
- fear z=+0.35
- frustration z=-2.28
- greed z=+1.36
- hope z=-0.46
- optimism z=-0.09
- panic z=+0.86
- skepticism z=+0.75
- uncertainty z=-0.50
Narratives to Look Out For
fed_pivotp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.10
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.33
- frustration z=+0.83
- greed z=-0.61
- hope z=-0.11
- optimism z=+0.14
- panic z=+0.13
- skepticism z=-0.87
- uncertainty z=+0.28
AI_boomp90
Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.03
- euphoria z=+0.98
- fear z=-0.97
- frustration z=-2.08
- greed z=-0.15
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=-0.33
- panic z=+2.42
- skepticism z=-0.80
- uncertainty z=-0.63
interest_rate_insecurityp90
Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.70
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-1.53
- frustration z=-0.30
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+1.36
- optimism z=+0.29
- panic z=+2.09
- skepticism z=+0.50
- uncertainty z=-1.37
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -0.01 — Skepticism z-score: -0.14.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.90.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.65), energy_insecurity (0.67), AI_boom (0.50).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.006 vs 7-day baseline 0.009.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p72 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch fed_pivot: WoW rising (+185%)
If trend continues → duration longs, growth equity bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.01, regime_score=+0.37
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 11.4950 | +1.0022 | -4.1126 | 72th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.6013 | +0.3775 | -2.4467 | 70th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 4.9099 | +1.0251 | +0.0742 | 90th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.3829 | -0.2748 | -1.6880 | 70th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.3721 | +0.2984 | +0.0234 | 47th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 4.2720 | -0.2432 | +0.1999 | 86th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.2326 | -1.4750 | +0.6518 | 86th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.0472 | +0.0967 | -0.5070 | 86th | 4 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 3.7648 | +0.5828 | +1.9486 | 90th | 10 | |
| recession | 3.6210 | -1.8515 | -0.1070 | 71th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-30
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| interest_rate_insecurity | 3.7648 | +0.5828 (+18.3%) | +1.9486 (+107.3%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.9644 | +0.5964 (+43.6%) | +1.2746 (+184.8%) |
| AI_boom | 4.9099 | +1.0251 (+26.4%) | +0.0742 (+1.5%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 1.1786 | +0.4376 (+59.1%) | +0.3960 (+50.6%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.3721 | +0.2984 (+7.3%) | +0.0234 (+0.5%) |
| stagflation | 1.3617 | -0.5304 (-28.0%) | +0.5531 (+68.4%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.4304 | +0.1282 (+42.4%) | +0.0742 (+20.8%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.2720 | -0.2432 (-5.4%) | +0.1999 (+4.9%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.3672 | -0.0695 (-15.9%) | +0.0720 (+24.4%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0786 | -0.0214 (-21.4%) | -0.0791 (-50.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
126 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-30 22:00 UTC