Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-22 (built 17:15 UTC), 240 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by defense_rearmament, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- inflation down: -1.05 DoD (-25%), now at 64th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- technology_paradigm_shift down: -0.88 DoD (-18%), now at 56th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- recession down: -0.72 DoD (-21%), now at 48th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- ⚠️ confidence rising fast (z=+2.56)
- ⚠️ fear rising fast (z=+1.82)
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +8.49 WoW (+630%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.00)
- energy_insecurity: +6.10 WoW (+779%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ fear rising fast (z=+1.60)
- AI_boom: +3.92 WoW (+754%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) defense_rearmament (p100) 2) sector_rotation (p86) 3) energy_insecurity (p83) 4) commodities_supercycle (p83) 5) fed_pivot (p80)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.68), skepticism subdued (z=-0.59).
- Fear is most concentrated in fed_pivot (avg fear 0.90).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): defense_rearmament (0.78), sector_rotation (0.57), energy_insecurity (0.76).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.013 vs 7d baseline 0.058).
Watchlist
- Watch defense_rearmament: if it remains above p90 for 3 days → review positioning.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+630%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.68, regime_score=+0.46
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.8385 | +0.0551 | +8.4903 | 68th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.8859 | +0.4621 | +6.1025 | 83th | 8 | |
| AI_boom | 4.4411 | +0.1663 | +3.9211 | 64th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.9790 | -0.8789 | +3.3624 | 56th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.7795 | +0.4126 | +3.4485 | 83th | 7 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.1912 | -0.4249 | +2.9574 | 86th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.1149 | -1.0518 | +2.7192 | 64th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.6618 | -0.7190 | +2.1546 | 48th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.6286 | -0.5242 | +2.5922 | 48th | 5 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.7700 | -0.5300 | +1.5234 | 69th | 9 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 10,213 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 93 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 37 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 6,892 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 22,180 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,842 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,842 total posts | 3,382 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 773 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 692 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 662 |
| r/investing | 626 |
| r/economics | 581 |
| r/stocks | 544 |
| r/StockMarket | 390 |
| r/options | 326 |
| r/finance | 99 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 67 |
| r/TrueReddit | 49 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 33 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-22
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.8385 | +0.0551 (+0.6%) | +8.4903 (+629.7%) |
| energy_insecurity | 6.8859 | +0.4621 (+7.2%) | +6.1025 (+779.0%) |
| AI_boom | 4.4411 | +0.1663 (+3.9%) | +3.9211 (+754.1%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.7795 | +0.4126 (+12.3%) | +3.4485 (+1042.0%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.9790 | -0.8789 (-18.1%) | +3.3624 (+545.2%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.1912 | -0.4249 (-11.8%) | +2.9574 (+1264.9%) |
| crypto_adoption | 2.6286 | -0.5242 (-16.6%) | +2.5922 (+7128.6%) |
| inflation | 3.1149 | -1.0518 (-25.2%) | +2.7192 (+687.2%) |
| recession | 2.6618 | -0.7190 (-21.3%) | +2.1546 (+424.8%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.6621 | +0.1527 (+10.1%) | +1.2521 (+305.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
93 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-22 17:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 37 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 10213 |
| narrative_scores | 6892 |
| fetch_runs | 93 |
| post_rankings | 22180 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 37 |