Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-29 (built 22:15 UTC), 285 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.11
- euphoria z=+1.19
- fear z=+0.74
- frustration z=-0.38
- greed z=+0.59
- hope z=-1.22
- optimism z=-1.86
- panic z=+0.78
- skepticism z=+0.65
- uncertainty z=+0.58
2. energy_insecurity fear ↑
- confidence z=+0.50
- euphoria z=+0.90
- fear z=+1.86
- frustration z=-0.37
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=-0.55
- optimism z=-0.44
- panic z=+0.98
- skepticism z=+0.19
- uncertainty z=-0.76
3. recession
- confidence z=+0.25
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=+0.03
- frustration z=+0.03
- greed z=+0.04
- hope z=+1.32
- optimism z=+0.66
- panic z=+1.23
- skepticism z=+0.33
- uncertainty z=+0.31
4. inflation
- confidence z=-0.34
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=+0.47
- frustration z=-0.08
- greed z=+0.79
- hope z=+0.61
- optimism z=+1.01
- panic z=+1.25
- skepticism z=+0.30
- uncertainty z=-0.00
5. technology_paradigm_shift greed ↓
- confidence z=-0.14
- euphoria z=-1.23
- fear z=-0.63
- frustration z=+0.29
- greed z=-1.53
- hope z=+0.20
- optimism z=+0.10
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=-0.55
- uncertainty z=-0.23
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
inflation ↑ +1.16σ DoD
+1.16σ vs own history — +40% change, now at 93th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.62
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.57
- frustration z=-0.25
- greed z=+0.83
- hope z=+1.46
- optimism z=+2.14
- panic z=+0.56
- skepticism z=-0.19
- uncertainty z=-1.04
commodities_supercycle ↑ +1.03σ DoD
+1.03σ vs own history — +36% change, now at 79th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.43
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.07
- frustration z=-0.37
- greed z=+0.37
- hope z=-0.40
- optimism z=-1.19
- panic z=+0.41
- skepticism z=-0.89
- uncertainty z=-0.07
energy_insecurity ↑ +0.66σ DoD
+0.66σ vs own history — +19% change, now at 63th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.09
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.06
- frustration z=+0.54
- greed z=+0.65
- hope z=-0.01
- optimism z=-0.03
- panic z=+0.17
- skepticism z=-0.24
- uncertainty z=-0.28
↓ Top Decreases
housing_bubble ↓ -0.95σ DoD
-0.95σ vs own history — -62% change, now at 35th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.54
- fear z=+0.09
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.71
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.38
- skepticism z=+0.68
- uncertainty z=+1.28
deglobalisation ↓ -0.92σ DoD
-0.92σ vs own history — -59% change, now at 39th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.77
- frustration z=+0.07
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.53
- optimism z=-0.00
- panic z=+1.35
- skepticism z=-0.59
- uncertainty z=-1.67
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.68σ DoD
-0.68σ vs own history — -9% change, now at 27th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.07
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.90
- frustration z=+0.07
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.65
- optimism z=+0.64
- panic z=-0.68
- skepticism z=+0.53
- uncertainty z=+0.57
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength: +0.94σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.94σ vs own history — +175% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.25
- fear z=+1.38
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.13
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.34
- skepticism z=+0.69
- uncertainty z=+1.59
stagflation: +0.84σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.84σ vs own history — +247% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.73
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.06
- frustration z=-0.63
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.49
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.82
- skepticism z=-0.23
- uncertainty z=-0.63
banking_crisis: +0.82σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.82σ vs own history — +76% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.26
- fear z=+1.21
- frustration z=+0.07
- greed z=+2.03
- hope z=-1.87
- optimism z=-1.76
- panic z=-0.24
- skepticism z=-0.31
- uncertainty z=+1.83
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -1.79σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.79σ vs own history — -34% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.13
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.49
- frustration z=+0.19
- greed z=+1.71
- hope z=+0.88
- optimism z=+1.34
- panic z=-1.00
- skepticism z=-0.28
- uncertainty z=+0.29
energy_insecurity: -0.80σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.80σ vs own history — -3% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.10
- euphoria z=-0.05
- fear z=+1.56
- frustration z=+0.06
- greed z=-0.89
- hope z=-0.33
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=+0.72
- skepticism z=+0.95
- uncertainty z=-0.82
technology_paradigm_shift: -0.79σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.79σ vs own history — -8% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.12
- euphoria z=-1.19
- fear z=-0.17
- frustration z=+0.25
- greed z=-2.08
- hope z=+0.77
- optimism z=+0.79
- panic z=-0.20
- skepticism z=-0.34
- uncertainty z=-1.47
Narratives to Look Out For
sector_rotationp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.62
- euphoria z=+0.01
- fear z=+0.37
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=-0.79
- hope z=-0.00
- optimism z=-1.05
- panic z=+1.41
- skepticism z=+0.34
- uncertainty z=+0.99
inflationp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.34
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=+0.47
- frustration z=-0.08
- greed z=+0.79
- hope z=+0.61
- optimism z=+1.01
- panic z=+1.25
- skepticism z=+0.30
- uncertainty z=-0.00
recessionp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.25
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=+0.03
- frustration z=+0.03
- greed z=+0.04
- hope z=+1.32
- optimism z=+0.66
- panic z=+1.23
- skepticism z=+0.33
- uncertainty z=+0.31
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: +0.87 — Skepticism z-score: -0.38.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.85.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.68), energy_insecurity (0.73), recession (0.66).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.009 vs 7-day baseline 0.010.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p55 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch dollar_strength: WoW rising (+175%)
If trend continues → EM underweight, USD longs.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.87, regime_score=+3.01
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.4927 | +0.9075 | -0.0509 | 55th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.2238 | +1.1671 | -0.2222 | 63th | 8 | |
| inflation | 5.7076 | +1.6439 | +2.3947 | 93th | 9 | |
| recession | 5.4726 | -0.2935 | +2.5341 | 93th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.6577 | +1.2303 | +0.4913 | 79th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 4.5152 | +0.0228 | +0.7201 | 100th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.0737 | -0.3780 | -0.3759 | 38th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.9505 | +0.3098 | +0.6714 | 86th | 4 | |
| AI_boom | 3.8847 | -0.6911 | -0.9955 | 59th | 9 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 3.1820 | +0.8661 | +1.3119 | 85th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-29
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| inflation | 5.7076 | +1.6439 (+40.5%) | +2.3947 (+72.3%) |
| recession | 5.4726 | -0.2935 (-5.1%) | +2.5341 (+86.2%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 3.1820 | +0.8661 (+37.4%) | +1.3119 (+70.2%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.6577 | +1.2303 (+35.9%) | +0.4913 (+11.8%) |
| stagflation | 1.8921 | -0.0946 (-4.8%) | +1.3475 (+247.4%) |
| banking_crisis | 1.9100 | +0.2290 (+13.6%) | +0.8263 (+76.3%) |
| crypto_adoption | 3.9505 | +0.3098 (+8.5%) | +0.6714 (+20.5%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.3680 | +0.3896 (+39.8%) | +0.5840 (+74.5%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.5152 | +0.0228 (+0.5%) | +0.7201 (+19.0%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.8592 | +0.2556 (+42.4%) | +0.5471 (+175.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
122 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-29 22:00 UTC