Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-02 (built 04:15 UTC), 187 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk frustration ↓ hope ↑
- confidence z=+0.84
- euphoria z=+0.15
- fear z=-0.84
- frustration z=-1.66
- greed z=-0.70
- hope z=+1.56
- optimism z=-1.03
- panic z=+0.02
- skepticism z=-1.09
- uncertainty z=-0.24
2. energy_insecurity greed ↓ hope ↑
- confidence z=+0.51
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-1.28
- frustration z=-0.85
- greed z=-2.29
- hope z=+1.77
- optimism z=-0.56
- panic z=-0.18
- skepticism z=-1.21
- uncertainty z=+0.25
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.13
- euphoria z=+2.39
- fear z=-1.79
- frustration z=-0.57
- greed z=+1.21
- hope z=+0.18
- optimism z=-0.18
- panic z=+0.63
- skepticism z=+0.66
- uncertainty z=-2.12
4. AI_boom uncertainty ↓ skepticism ↑
- confidence z=-0.74
- euphoria z=-1.43
- fear z=-1.59
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.27
- hope z=-0.20
- optimism z=-0.21
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+1.83
- uncertainty z=-2.08
5. crypto_adoption greed ↑ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.11
- euphoria z=-1.09
- fear z=-0.26
- frustration z=+1.43
- greed z=+2.41
- hope z=+1.13
- optimism z=-0.82
- panic z=+0.40
- skepticism z=-0.29
- uncertainty z=-0.60
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism ↑ +5.09σ DoD
+5.09σ vs own history — +1591% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.41
- uncertainty z=+1.41
eu_us_relations ↑ +4.99σ DoD
+4.99σ vs own history — +464% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
defense_rearmament ↑ +4.77σ DoD
+4.77σ vs own history — +233% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.75
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.23
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.12
- optimism z=-1.39
- panic z=+0.38
- skepticism z=-1.12
- uncertainty z=+1.05
↓ Top Decreases
No decreases
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism: +4.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.47σ vs own history — +105667468952% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +4.41σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.41σ vs own history — +28177991720% change over the last 3 days.
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
defense_rearmament: +3.11σ WoW — trend accelerating
+3.11σ vs own history — +254% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.81
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.51
- frustration z=-1.63
- greed z=+0.71
- hope z=+0.19
- optimism z=-1.62
- panic z=+1.12
- skepticism z=-2.34
- uncertainty z=+2.17
↓ Top Decreases
demographic_shift: -0.05σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.05σ vs own history — 182% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.22
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.38
- uncertainty z=-1.31
Narratives to Look Out For
geopolitical_riskp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.84
- euphoria z=+0.15
- fear z=-0.84
- frustration z=-1.66
- greed z=-0.70
- hope z=+1.56
- optimism z=-1.03
- panic z=+0.02
- skepticism z=-1.09
- uncertainty z=-0.24
energy_insecurityp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.51
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-1.28
- frustration z=-0.85
- greed z=-2.29
- hope z=+1.77
- optimism z=-0.56
- panic z=-0.18
- skepticism z=-1.21
- uncertainty z=+0.25
technology_paradigm_shiftp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.13
- euphoria z=+2.39
- fear z=-1.79
- frustration z=-0.57
- greed z=+1.21
- hope z=+0.18
- optimism z=-0.18
- panic z=+0.63
- skepticism z=+0.66
- uncertainty z=-2.12
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: -2.08 — Skepticism z-score: -0.73.
Fear most concentrated in crypto_adoption
Average fear score for crypto_adoption: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.62), energy_insecurity (0.62).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.011 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (+3.0%), inflation (-2.6%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch trade_protectionism: WoW rising (+105667468952%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.08, regime_score=+1.67
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 32.9689 | +22.3974 | +21.2455 | 100th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 22.1877 | +15.1990 | +14.1961 | 100th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 13.1534 | +8.7083 | +8.0027 | 100th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 12.8345 | +8.9582 | +8.6740 | 100th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 10.3250 | +6.0967 | +5.8380 | 100th | 5 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 9.3735 | +6.5874 | +4.1042 | 100th | 7 | |
| sector_rotation | 9.2672 | +5.8890 | +5.7703 | 100th | 9 | |
| recession | 7.4965 | +4.1687 | +3.6944 | 100th | 8 | |
| inflation | 5.9185 | +3.4229 | +2.3895 | 93th | 8 | |
| defense_rearmament | 5.2836 | +3.6963 | +3.7891 | 100th | 6 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-02
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 32.7990 | +22.2275 (+210.3%) | +21.0756 (+179.8%) |
| energy_insecurity | 22.0734 | +15.0847 (+215.8%) | +14.0818 (+176.2%) |
| AI_boom | 12.7684 | +8.8920 (+229.4%) | +8.6078 (+206.9%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 13.0856 | +8.6405 (+194.4%) | +7.9349 (+154.1%) |
| crypto_adoption | 10.2718 | +6.0435 (+142.9%) | +5.7848 (+128.9%) |
| sector_rotation | 9.2195 | +5.8413 (+172.9%) | +5.7226 (+163.6%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 9.3252 | +6.5391 (+234.7%) | +4.0559 (+77.0%) |
| recession | 7.4579 | +4.1301 (+124.1%) | +3.6557 (+96.1%) |
| defense_rearmament | 5.2564 | +3.6690 (+231.1%) | +3.7618 (+251.7%) |
| inflation | 5.8880 | +3.3924 (+135.9%) | +2.3590 (+66.8%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
135 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-02 04:00 UTC