Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-22 (built 05:15 UTC), 188 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by fed_pivot, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk down: -2.75 DoD (-28%), now at 56th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.12)
- technology_paradigm_shift down: -2.37 DoD (-49%), now at 44th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+1.84)
- AI_boom down: -1.71 DoD (-40%), now at 36th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- ⚠️ frustration rising fast (z=+2.05)
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +5.68 WoW (+421%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.12)
- energy_insecurity: +4.18 WoW (+534%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ fear rising fast (z=+1.78)
- commodities_supercycle: +2.48 WoW (+750%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ fear rising fast (z=+2.93)
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) fed_pivot (p76) 2) energy_insecurity (p67) 3) commodities_supercycle (p67) 4) sector_rotation (p64) 5) interest_rate_insecurity (p62)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.35), skepticism subdued (z=-1.03).
- Fear is most concentrated in defense_rearmament (avg fear 0.85).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): energy_insecurity (0.83), commodities_supercycle (0.83).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.011 vs 7d baseline 0.058).
Watchlist
- Watch fed_pivot: if it remains above p76 for 3 days → duration longs, growth equity bias.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+421%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.35, regime_score=-0.12
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 7.0297 | -2.7536 | +5.6815 | 56th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 4.9631 | -1.4607 | +4.1797 | 67th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.8135 | -0.5534 | +2.4826 | 67th | 7 | |
| inflation | 2.6314 | -1.5353 | +2.2357 | 52th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 2.5693 | -1.7055 | +2.0493 | 36th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.4854 | -2.3725 | +1.8688 | 44th | 10 | |
| recession | 2.1332 | -1.2476 | +1.6259 | 44th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.1089 | -1.5072 | +1.8751 | 64th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 1.6848 | -1.4680 | +1.6484 | 36th | 5 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.3564 | -0.9437 | +1.1097 | 62th | 9 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 10,039 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 91 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 35 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 6,757 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 21,700 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,786 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,786 total posts | 3,326 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 766 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 682 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 656 |
| r/investing | 619 |
| r/economics | 575 |
| r/stocks | 537 |
| r/StockMarket | 386 |
| r/options | 323 |
| r/finance | 99 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 65 |
| r/TrueReddit | 46 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 32 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-22
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 7.0297 | -2.7536 (-28.1%) | +5.6815 (+421.4%) |
| energy_insecurity | 4.9631 | -1.4607 (-22.7%) | +4.1797 (+533.6%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.8135 | -0.5534 (-16.4%) | +2.4826 (+750.1%) |
| inflation | 2.6314 | -1.5353 (-36.8%) | +2.2357 (+565.0%) |
| AI_boom | 2.5693 | -1.7055 (-39.9%) | +2.0493 (+394.1%) |
| sector_rotation | 2.1089 | -1.5072 (-41.7%) | +1.8751 (+802.0%) |
| recession | 2.1332 | -1.2476 (-36.9%) | +1.6259 (+320.6%) |
| crypto_adoption | 1.6848 | -1.4680 (-46.6%) | +1.6484 (+4533.1%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.1932 | -0.3162 (-21.0%) | +0.7832 (+191.0%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.3564 | -0.9437 (-41.0%) | +1.1097 (+449.9%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
91 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-22 05:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 35 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 10039 |
| narrative_scores | 6757 |
| fetch_runs | 91 |
| post_rankings | 21700 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 35 |