Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-25 (built 11:15 UTC), 221 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by housing_bubble, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. housing_bubble confidence ↑
- confidence z=+2.09
- fear z=+0.69
- frustration z=+1.00
- hope z=-0.96
- optimism z=+0.43
- panic z=+0.67
- skepticism z=+1.15
- uncertainty z=+0.83
2. banking_crisis confidence ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.77
- euphoria z=-0.82
- fear z=-0.31
- frustration z=-1.59
- greed z=+0.88
- hope z=-1.65
- optimism z=-1.74
- panic z=-0.07
- skepticism z=+1.37
- uncertainty z=+0.22
3. crypto_adoption fear ↓ hope ↓
- confidence z=+0.45
- euphoria z=-1.35
- fear z=-2.30
- frustration z=+1.37
- greed z=-1.53
- hope z=-1.88
- optimism z=-0.26
- panic z=-1.23
- skepticism z=-0.85
- uncertainty z=-1.30
4. fed_pivot uncertainty ↑
- confidence z=+0.51
- euphoria z=+0.41
- fear z=+1.04
- frustration z=+1.48
- greed z=+0.77
- hope z=-0.65
- optimism z=-0.16
- panic z=+1.14
- skepticism z=+0.01
- uncertainty z=+1.62
5. dollar_strength skepticism ↑
- confidence z=-1.10
- fear z=-0.48
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=+0.41
- hope z=-1.12
- optimism z=+0.96
- panic z=+1.04
- skepticism z=+2.14
- uncertainty z=+0.75
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -52%
-6.88 DoD change — now at 46th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.27
- euphoria z=+0.60
- fear z=-1.00
- frustration z=-1.49
- greed z=-0.28
- hope z=-0.96
- optimism z=+0.67
- panic z=-0.39
- skepticism z=-0.12
- uncertainty z=-0.80
energy_insecurity ↓ -58%
-4.68 DoD change — now at 47th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.82
- euphoria z=+0.55
- fear z=-0.55
- frustration z=-0.54
- greed z=-0.01
- hope z=-2.08
- optimism z=+1.02
- panic z=+0.35
- skepticism z=-0.39
- uncertainty z=-0.87
commodities_supercycle ↓ -56%
-2.87 DoD change — now at 47th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.16
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.77
- frustration z=-0.97
- greed z=+0.24
- hope z=-0.79
- optimism z=+1.48
- panic z=+0.32
- skepticism z=+0.09
- uncertainty z=-0.60
What Changed Since Last Week
inflation: -85% WoW — trend decelerating
-5.84 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.92
- euphoria z=+1.55
- fear z=-0.22
- frustration z=-0.39
- greed z=+0.81
- hope z=+0.31
- optimism z=+1.79
- panic z=+0.21
- skepticism z=+1.14
- uncertainty z=+0.76
interest_rate_insecurity: -83% WoW — trend accelerating
-5.67 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.33
- euphoria z=-0.37
- fear z=+0.14
- frustration z=-1.73
- greed z=+0.36
- hope z=-0.64
- optimism z=+1.06
- panic z=-0.28
- skepticism z=-0.57
- uncertainty z=+0.88
fed_pivot: -91% WoW — trend accelerating
-3.37 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.30
- euphoria z=-0.72
- fear z=+0.46
- frustration z=+1.75
- greed z=-0.57
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=+0.71
- panic z=+1.44
- skepticism z=+1.58
- uncertainty z=+1.26
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -0.72 — Skepticism z-score: +0.09.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
housing_bubble (0.50), banking_crisis (0.67), crypto_adoption (0.40).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.014 vs 7-day baseline 0.031.
Watchlist
Watch housing_bubble: if it remains above p65 for 3 days
Action: real estate underweight.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.72, regime_score=-0.55
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 6.3628 | -6.8831 | -1.8059 | 46th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.6670 | -0.3608 | -1.9762 | 33th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 3.4671 | +0.1005 | -1.2196 | 43th | 8 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.4563 | -4.6840 | -1.5233 | 47th | 8 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.7205 | -1.7674 | -1.2169 | 54th | 5 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.2147 | -2.8667 | -0.8387 | 47th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.1465 | -1.0906 | -0.8668 | 53th | 8 | |
| recession | 1.9087 | -1.1822 | -2.4960 | 36th | 10 | |
| banking_crisis | 1.4199 | -0.6274 | -0.3680 | 64th | 8 | |
| defense_rearmament | 1.2781 | -0.7332 | -0.0748 | 36th | 7 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 11,745 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 104 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 48 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 7,942 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 24,820 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,339 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,339 total posts | 3,879 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 841 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 768 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 721 |
| r/investing | 683 |
| r/economics | 632 |
| r/stocks | 605 |
| r/StockMarket | 423 |
| r/options | 360 |
| r/finance | 110 |
| r/TrueReddit | 85 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 71 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 40 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-25
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0278 | -0.0016 (-5.6%) | -0.0035 (-11.1%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0333 | -0.0020 (-5.6%) | -0.0042 (-11.1%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.2500 | +0.0458 (+22.4%) | -0.0936 (-27.2%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.2301 | -0.1837 (-44.4%) | -0.3899 (-62.9%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.2781 | -0.7332 (-36.5%) | -0.0748 (-5.5%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.1750 | +0.0998 (+132.7%) | -0.6640 (-79.1%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.3333 | -0.6845 (-67.3%) | -0.3285 (-49.6%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
104 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-25 11:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 48 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 11745 |
| narrative_scores | 7942 |
| fetch_runs | 104 |
| post_rankings | 24820 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 48 |