Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-21 (built 23:15 UTC), 272 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by sector_rotation, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk down: -2.33 DoD (-19%), now at 67th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.39)
- ⚠️ skepticism rising fast (z=+1.78)
- ⚠️ euphoria rising fast (z=+1.73)
- AI_boom down: -2.20 DoD (-34%), now at 62th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- technology_paradigm_shift down: -2.06 DoD (-30%), now at 75th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +8.44 WoW (+626%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.39)
- ⚠️ skepticism rising fast (z=+1.78)
- ⚠️ euphoria rising fast (z=+1.73)
- energy_insecurity: +5.64 WoW (+720%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- technology_paradigm_shift: +4.24 WoW (+688%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) sector_rotation (p100) 2) defense_rearmament (p100) 3) housing_bubble (p94) 4) inflation (p88) 5) banking_crisis (p88)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=-0.00), skepticism neutral (z=+0.36).
- Fear is most concentrated in recession (avg fear 0.74).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): sector_rotation (0.49), defense_rearmament (0.72), housing_bubble (0.70).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.014 vs 7d baseline 0.065).
Watchlist
- Watch sector_rotation: if it remains above p90 for 3 days → factor rotation, defensive vs cyclical.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+626%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.00, regime_score=-0.98
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.7834 | -2.3263 | +8.4352 | 67th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.4238 | -1.8026 | +5.6405 | 82th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.8579 | -2.0555 | +4.2412 | 75th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.2749 | -2.1968 | +3.7549 | 62th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.1667 | -0.7143 | +3.7710 | 88th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.6161 | +0.1399 | +3.3823 | 100th | 10 | |
| recession | 3.3808 | -1.1891 | +2.8736 | 71th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.3669 | -1.2217 | +3.0360 | 82th | 8 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.1528 | -1.2695 | +3.1164 | 71th | 6 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.3000 | -0.9100 | +2.0534 | 75th | 10 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 9,959 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 90 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 34 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 6,703 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 21,460 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,764 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,764 total posts | 3,304 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 761 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 676 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 654 |
| r/investing | 618 |
| r/economics | 572 |
| r/stocks | 536 |
| r/StockMarket | 384 |
| r/options | 322 |
| r/finance | 99 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 65 |
| r/TrueReddit | 46 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 31 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-21
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.7834 | -2.3263 (-19.2%) | +8.4352 (+625.6%) |
| energy_insecurity | 6.4238 | -1.8026 (-21.9%) | +5.6405 (+720.1%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.6161 | +0.1399 (+4.0%) | +3.3823 (+1446.6%) |
| inflation | 4.1667 | -0.7143 (-14.6%) | +3.7710 (+953.0%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.8579 | -2.0555 (-29.7%) | +4.2412 (+687.8%) |
| AI_boom | 4.2749 | -2.1968 (-33.9%) | +3.7549 (+722.1%) |
| crypto_adoption | 3.1528 | -1.2695 (-28.7%) | +3.1164 (+8570.2%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.3669 | -1.2217 (-26.6%) | +3.0360 (+917.3%) |
| recession | 3.3808 | -1.1891 (-26.0%) | +2.8736 (+566.5%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.3000 | -0.9100 (-28.3%) | +2.0534 (+832.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
90 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-21 23:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 34 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 9959 |
| narrative_scores | 6703 |
| fetch_runs | 90 |
| post_rankings | 21460 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 34 |