Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-31 (built 04:15 UTC), 188 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk greed ↑ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.05
- euphoria z=+0.84
- fear z=-2.66
- frustration z=-1.61
- greed z=+3.07
- hope z=-0.21
- optimism z=-0.08
- panic z=+1.22
- skepticism z=+0.42
- uncertainty z=-1.78
2. energy_insecurity uncertainty ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.01
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-2.44
- frustration z=-1.83
- greed z=+1.33
- hope z=+0.32
- optimism z=+0.69
- panic z=+1.41
- skepticism z=+0.28
- uncertainty z=-2.57
3. AI_boom frustration ↓ panic ↑
- confidence z=+0.54
- euphoria z=+1.13
- fear z=-0.24
- frustration z=-2.03
- greed z=-0.91
- hope z=-0.60
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=+1.99
- skepticism z=+1.17
- uncertainty z=-1.08
4. technology_paradigm_shift greed ↓
- confidence z=+0.26
- euphoria z=+0.87
- fear z=-0.96
- frustration z=-0.99
- greed z=-1.70
- hope z=-0.08
- optimism z=-0.05
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=-0.05
- uncertainty z=-1.34
5. inflation frustration ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.47
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-1.35
- frustration z=-2.30
- greed z=-0.87
- hope z=+1.17
- optimism z=+1.02
- panic z=+1.69
- skepticism z=+0.93
- uncertainty z=-1.75
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament ↓ -3.05σ DoD
-3.05σ vs own history — -66% change, now at 18th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.33
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.46
- frustration z=-0.86
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.60
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.68
- skepticism z=+0.45
- uncertainty z=-1.04
sector_rotation ↓ -3.04σ DoD
-3.04σ vs own history — -57% change, now at 35th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.40
- euphoria z=+0.51
- fear z=+0.01
- frustration z=-0.94
- greed z=-0.48
- hope z=+0.08
- optimism z=+0.35
- panic z=+1.64
- skepticism z=+1.69
- uncertainty z=-0.61
energy_insecurity ↓ -2.59σ DoD
-2.59σ vs own history — -52% change, now at 33th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.17
- euphoria z=+0.53
- fear z=-2.72
- frustration z=-0.55
- greed z=-0.34
- hope z=-0.54
- optimism z=+0.25
- panic z=+0.58
- skepticism z=-0.12
- uncertainty z=-1.76
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
deglobalisation: +0.42σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.42σ vs own history — +92% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.07
- frustration z=+2.04
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.89
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.38
- uncertainty z=-4.23
fed_pivot: +0.12σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.12σ vs own history — +59% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.77
- euphoria z=-1.12
- fear z=-0.87
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=-1.41
- hope z=-1.22
- optimism z=+0.76
- panic z=-1.21
- skepticism z=-0.35
- uncertainty z=-1.14
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -2.36σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.36σ vs own history — -76% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.67
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.15
- frustration z=-4.06
- greed z=+2.13
- hope z=+2.50
- optimism z=-2.18
- panic z=+2.26
- skepticism z=+2.35
- uncertainty z=+1.65
banking_crisis: -2.34σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.34σ vs own history — -57% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.87
- fear z=-1.43
- frustration z=-2.30
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.20
- optimism z=+0.76
- panic z=-0.98
- skepticism z=-1.45
- uncertainty z=-1.90
commodities_supercycle: -2.13σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.13σ vs own history — -71% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.55
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.82
- frustration z=-3.74
- greed z=+1.87
- hope z=+0.51
- optimism z=+1.09
- panic z=+1.65
- skepticism z=+0.44
- uncertainty z=+0.07
Narratives to Look Out For
fed_pivotp79
Attention is at the 79th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.09
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=-0.04
- frustration z=+0.81
- greed z=-0.58
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=+0.43
- panic z=+0.13
- skepticism z=-0.74
- uncertainty z=-0.12
interest_rate_insecurityp59
Attention is at the 59th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.74
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-2.39
- frustration z=-1.33
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+0.45
- optimism z=+0.38
- panic z=+2.12
- skepticism z=-0.06
- uncertainty z=-2.37
AI_boomp45
Attention is at the 45th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.54
- euphoria z=+1.13
- fear z=-0.24
- frustration z=-2.03
- greed z=-0.91
- hope z=-0.60
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=+1.99
- skepticism z=+1.17
- uncertainty z=-1.08
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: -3.14 — Skepticism z-score: -0.80.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.57), energy_insecurity (0.57).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.009 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p31 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch deglobalisation: WoW rising (+92%)
If trend continues → domestic equity bias, supply-chain plays.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-3.14, regime_score=-2.57
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 5.3599 | -6.1351 | -7.8611 | 31th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.6113 | -3.9900 | -4.5290 | 33th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 3.1250 | -1.7849 | -0.2416 | 45th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.7107 | -1.6614 | -1.3171 | 22th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.4902 | -1.5570 | -1.9978 | 38th | 5 | |
| inflation | 2.1440 | -2.0886 | -0.3530 | 38th | 7 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9546 | -1.8101 | +0.2643 | 59th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 1.8322 | -2.4398 | -1.4049 | 35th | 7 | |
| recession | 1.6859 | -1.9351 | -1.3815 | 34th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 1.4584 | -2.9245 | -3.6230 | 33th | 7 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-31
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| deglobalisation | 0.1446 | -0.2858 (-66.4%) | +0.0694 (+92.2%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0333 | -0.0452 (-57.6%) | -0.1708 (-83.7%) |
| fed_pivot | 0.9953 | -0.9691 (-49.3%) | +0.3704 (+59.3%) |
| stagflation | 0.8470 | -0.5148 (-37.8%) | -0.0874 (-9.4%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.0509 | -0.3163 (-86.1%) | -0.3629 (-87.7%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.4031 | -0.2145 (-34.7%) | -0.6148 (-60.4%) |
| energy_transition | 0.1993 | -0.3622 (-64.5%) | -0.5215 (-72.4%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9546 | -1.8101 (-48.1%) | +0.2643 (+15.6%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 0.2435 | -0.9351 (-79.3%) | -0.3754 (-60.7%) |
| AI_boom | 3.1250 | -1.7849 (-36.4%) | -0.2416 (-7.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
127 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-31 04:00 UTC