Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-21 (built 11:15 UTC), 216 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by fed_pivot, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk down: -4.89 DoD (-40%), now at 58th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.55)
- ⚠️ skepticism rising fast (z=+2.09)
- ⚠️ euphoria rising fast (z=+2.04)
- energy_insecurity down: -3.63 DoD (-44%), now at 73th percentile; breadth 8 subs.
- AI_boom down: -3.22 DoD (-50%), now at 46th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +5.87 WoW (+435%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ greed rising fast (z=+2.55)
- ⚠️ skepticism rising fast (z=+2.09)
- ⚠️ euphoria rising fast (z=+2.04)
- energy_insecurity: +3.82 WoW (+487%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- technology_paradigm_shift: +3.21 WoW (+520%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) fed_pivot (p88) 2) sector_rotation (p85) 3) dollar_strength (p79) 4) interest_rate_insecurity (p75) 5) energy_insecurity (p73)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.11), skepticism elevated (z=+1.12).
- Fear is most concentrated in stagflation (avg fear 0.73).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): sector_rotation (0.57), dollar_strength (0.70).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.013 vs 7d baseline 0.065).
Watchlist
- Watch fed_pivot: if it remains above p88 for 3 days → duration longs, growth equity bias.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+435%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.11, regime_score=-1.63
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 7.2195 | -4.8901 | +5.8713 | 58th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 4.5991 | -3.6273 | +3.8158 | 73th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.8252 | -3.0883 | +3.2085 | 50th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 3.2556 | -3.2160 | +2.7356 | 46th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.2509 | -1.6301 | +2.8552 | 71th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.9029 | -1.6670 | +2.3956 | 50th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.7828 | -0.6934 | +2.5490 | 85th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.2811 | -2.1412 | +2.2448 | 50th | 6 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.2113 | -0.9988 | +1.9646 | 75th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 1.9499 | -2.6387 | +1.6189 | 64th | 8 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 9,781 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 88 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 32 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 6,597 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 20,980 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,707 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,707 total posts | 3,247 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 749 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 668 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 650 |
| r/investing | 608 |
| r/economics | 566 |
| r/stocks | 529 |
| r/StockMarket | 380 |
| r/options | 319 |
| r/finance | 98 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 65 |
| r/TrueReddit | 46 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 29 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-21
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 7.2195 | -4.8901 (-40.4%) | +5.8713 (+435.5%) |
| sector_rotation | 2.7828 | -0.6934 (-19.9%) | +2.5490 (+1090.2%) |
| inflation | 3.2509 | -1.6301 (-33.4%) | +2.8552 (+721.5%) |
| energy_insecurity | 4.5991 | -3.6273 (-44.1%) | +3.8158 (+487.1%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.2113 | -0.9988 (-31.1%) | +1.9646 (+796.5%) |
| recession | 2.9029 | -1.6670 (-36.5%) | +2.3956 (+472.3%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.8252 | -3.0883 (-44.7%) | +3.2085 (+520.3%) |
| crypto_adoption | 2.2811 | -2.1412 (-48.4%) | +2.2448 (+6173.1%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.0326 | -0.3817 (-27.0%) | +1.0201 (+8161.1%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.7095 | +0.0994 (+16.3%) | +0.5562 (+362.7%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
88 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-21 11:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 32 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 9781 |
| narrative_scores | 6597 |
| fetch_runs | 88 |
| post_rankings | 20980 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 32 |