Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-28 (built 23:15 UTC), 281 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=-1.12
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=+1.37
- frustration z=+0.04
- greed z=-0.30
- hope z=-1.32
- optimism z=-0.76
- panic z=+0.75
- skepticism z=+0.34
- uncertainty z=+0.64
2. energy_insecurity fear ↑
- confidence z=-0.53
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=+2.07
- frustration z=-0.91
- greed z=-0.61
- hope z=-0.57
- optimism z=-0.44
- panic z=+0.89
- skepticism z=+0.42
- uncertainty z=-0.52
3. recession euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-0.27
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.78
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=-0.50
- hope z=+1.02
- optimism z=+0.70
- panic z=+1.03
- skepticism z=+1.04
- uncertainty z=+0.93
4. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=+0.16
- euphoria z=-1.38
- fear z=+0.74
- frustration z=-0.09
- greed z=-0.94
- hope z=-0.44
- optimism z=+0.17
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=-0.43
- uncertainty z=+1.01
5. AI_boom
- confidence z=-0.93
- euphoria z=-0.69
- fear z=+0.75
- frustration z=-0.92
- greed z=-0.48
- hope z=-0.73
- optimism z=-1.02
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=-0.20
- uncertainty z=+0.95
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -24%
-2.96 DoD change — now at 50th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.08
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.99
- frustration z=-0.03
- greed z=-0.36
- hope z=-0.97
- optimism z=+0.31
- panic z=-0.03
- skepticism z=+0.12
- uncertainty z=+0.17
energy_insecurity ↓ -21%
-1.63 DoD change — now at 50th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.05
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+2.02
- frustration z=+0.24
- greed z=+0.07
- hope z=-0.34
- optimism z=-0.61
- panic z=-0.03
- skepticism z=+0.42
- uncertainty z=+0.44
commodities_supercycle ↓ -18%
-0.77 DoD change — now at 56th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.78
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+3.28
- frustration z=+1.20
- greed z=-0.51
- hope z=-0.67
- optimism z=-1.45
- panic z=-1.10
- skepticism z=+0.24
- uncertainty z=+0.70
What Changed Since Last Week
recession: +74% WoW — trend accelerating
+2.45 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.47
- euphoria z=+1.05
- fear z=+0.20
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=-1.03
- hope z=+0.55
- optimism z=+0.17
- panic z=+0.68
- skepticism z=-0.32
- uncertainty z=+0.15
stagflation: +80% WoW — trend accelerating
+0.88 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.77
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.87
- frustration z=-1.02
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.67
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.86
- skepticism z=+0.79
- uncertainty z=+0.51
sector_rotation: +24% WoW — trend accelerating
+0.88 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.40
- euphoria z=-0.61
- fear z=+0.51
- frustration z=-0.99
- greed z=-0.99
- hope z=-0.76
- optimism z=+0.93
- panic z=+1.43
- skepticism z=+0.13
- uncertainty z=+0.49
Narratives to Look Out For
recessionp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.27
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.78
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=-0.50
- hope z=+1.02
- optimism z=+0.70
- panic z=+1.03
- skepticism z=+1.04
- uncertainty z=+0.93
sector_rotationp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.52
- euphoria z=+0.01
- fear z=+0.50
- frustration z=-0.91
- greed z=-1.14
- hope z=+0.22
- optimism z=+1.22
- panic z=+1.58
- skepticism z=+0.07
- uncertainty z=+0.95
stagflationp90
Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.26
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.24
- frustration z=-0.02
- greed z=+0.34
- hope z=+0.16
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=+0.84
- skepticism z=+0.74
- uncertainty z=+0.73
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -0.42 — Skepticism z-score: -0.40.
Fear most concentrated in housing_bubble
Average fear score for housing_bubble: 0.85.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.78), energy_insecurity (0.80), recession (0.65).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.008 vs 7-day baseline 0.011.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p50 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession: WoW rising (+74%)
If trend continues → quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-0.42, regime_score=+1.79
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.5852 | -2.9596 | -0.1245 | 50th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.0567 | -1.6330 | -0.3671 | 50th | 8 | |
| recession | 5.7660 | +0.0435 | +2.4455 | 100th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.5758 | -0.4124 | +0.3010 | 68th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 4.4924 | +0.0827 | +0.8763 | 100th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.4518 | -0.6504 | -0.4061 | 60th | 10 | |
| inflation | 4.0637 | +0.1985 | -0.1030 | 86th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.6406 | -0.0646 | +0.4878 | 71th | 5 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.4273 | -0.7697 | +0.0604 | 56th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.3159 | +0.0822 | +0.0158 | 84th | 9 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 13,762 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 118 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 9,383 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 28,180 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,969 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,969 total posts | 4,509 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 922 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 853 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 809 |
| r/investing | 761 |
| r/economics | 705 |
| r/stocks | 679 |
| r/StockMarket | 472 |
| r/options | 403 |
| r/finance | 114 |
| r/TrueReddit | 110 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 72 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 69 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-28
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| recession | 5.7660 | +0.0435 (+0.8%) | +2.4455 (+73.6%) |
| stagflation | 1.9867 | +0.2585 (+15.0%) | +0.8847 (+80.3%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.4924 | +0.0827 (+1.9%) | +0.8763 (+24.2%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.7324 | +0.4938 (+206.9%) | +0.2824 (+62.8%) |
| crypto_adoption | 3.6406 | -0.0646 (-1.7%) | +0.4878 (+15.5%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.4100 | +0.3475 (+556.0%) | +0.1252 (+43.9%) |
| energy_transition | 0.6064 | +0.2550 (+72.6%) | -0.0106 (-1.7%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.3159 | +0.0822 (+3.7%) | +0.0158 (+0.7%) |
| banking_crisis | 1.6811 | -0.2427 (-12.6%) | +0.2112 (+14.4%) |
| inflation | 4.0637 | +0.1985 (+5.1%) | -0.1030 (-2.5%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
118 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-28 23:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 13762 |
| narrative_scores | 9383 |
| fetch_runs | 118 |
| post_rankings | 28180 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |