Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-12 (built 05:50 UTC), 186 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-0.18
- euphoria z=+0.26
- fear z=-1.70
- frustration z=-0.79
- greed z=-0.45
- hope z=-0.51
- optimism z=-2.32
- panic z=+1.26
- skepticism z=-1.17
- uncertainty z=-1.80
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-2.04
- euphoria z=+1.06
- fear z=-1.61
- frustration z=-1.44
- greed z=-0.64
- hope z=-2.70
- optimism z=-2.21
- panic z=+1.17
- skepticism z=-1.37
- uncertainty z=-1.30
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.26
- euphoria z=+1.88
- fear z=-1.52
- frustration z=-0.24
- greed z=-0.21
- hope z=-0.21
- optimism z=-1.68
- panic z=+0.81
- skepticism z=+0.96
- uncertainty z=-0.36
4. AI_boom euphoria ↑ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.51
- euphoria z=+2.00
- fear z=-1.91
- frustration z=-0.97
- greed z=-0.44
- hope z=-0.41
- optimism z=-1.68
- panic z=+1.04
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.22
5. inflation confidence ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-2.05
- euphoria z=+1.08
- fear z=-0.11
- frustration z=-1.16
- greed z=+1.11
- hope z=-1.32
- optimism z=-1.22
- panic z=+1.12
- skepticism z=-0.49
- uncertainty z=-1.60
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
housing_bubble ↑ +0.11σ DoD
+0.11σ vs own history — +26% change, now at 38th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -0.76σ DoD
-0.76σ vs own history — -7% change, now at 10th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.12
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.08
- frustration z=+0.20
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=+0.04
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.16
crypto_adoption ↓ -0.69σ DoD
-0.69σ vs own history — -7% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.19
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.02
- frustration z=+0.21
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.42
- optimism z=+0.07
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.10
- uncertainty z=-0.27
geopolitical_risk ↓ -0.68σ DoD
-0.68σ vs own history — -6% change, now at 10th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.02
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.10
- frustration z=-0.08
- greed z=-0.06
- hope z=+0.17
- optimism z=+0.01
- panic z=+0.13
- skepticism z=-0.16
- uncertainty z=-0.08
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +1.21σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.21σ vs own history — +279% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.65
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.40
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.04
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+3.14
- skepticism z=+0.18
- uncertainty z=-1.68
banking_crisis: +0.75σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.75σ vs own history — +56% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.89
- fear z=-0.84
- frustration z=+0.07
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.85
- optimism z=-1.24
- panic z=+3.92
- skepticism z=-0.81
- uncertainty z=-1.20
technology_paradigm_shift: +0.42σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.42σ vs own history — +49% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.20
- euphoria z=+1.56
- fear z=+0.14
- frustration z=-2.07
- greed z=+0.17
- hope z=+0.44
- optimism z=-1.69
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.10
- uncertainty z=+1.79
↓ Top Decreases
commodities_supercycle: -0.82σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.82σ vs own history — -13% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.40
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.71
- frustration z=-1.59
- greed z=+0.76
- hope z=+0.37
- optimism z=-2.23
- panic z=+1.17
- skepticism z=-0.75
- uncertainty z=-0.23
housing_bubble: -0.76σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.76σ vs own history — -71% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.17
- frustration z=-0.15
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.50
- uncertainty z=+0.15
energy_insecurity: -0.67σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.67σ vs own history — -4% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.31
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.80
- frustration z=-0.52
- greed z=+0.36
- hope z=-2.84
- optimism z=-2.61
- panic z=+0.77
- skepticism z=+0.01
- uncertainty z=-0.20
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.27
- fear z=-1.45
- frustration z=-0.89
- greed z=-1.29
- hope z=+0.22
- optimism z=-1.11
- panic z=+1.23
- skepticism z=-0.61
- uncertainty z=-1.42
deglobalisationp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.95
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.68
- frustration z=-0.22
- greed z=+0.59
- hope z=+0.53
- optimism z=+0.04
- panic z=+0.76
- skepticism z=+1.12
- uncertainty z=-2.68
stagflationp89
Attention is at the 89th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.91
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.20
- frustration z=-1.19
- greed z=-0.32
- hope z=+1.35
- optimism z=+0.53
- panic z=+0.80
- skepticism z=-1.22
- uncertainty z=-1.73
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.36 — Skepticism z-score: +0.42.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.64), energy_insecurity (0.73), technology_paradigm_shift (0.30).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-3.4%), stagflation (+2.6%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p24 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+279%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.36, regime_score=-0.45
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.1739 | -0.5658 | +0.0802 | 10th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.2584 | -0.3690 | -0.2304 | 10th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.1362 | -0.2242 | +1.6962 | 14th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.8013 | -0.2227 | +1.5301 | 21th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.0540 | -0.2000 | +1.2845 | 31th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.4997 | -0.2157 | -0.5276 | 4th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.1395 | -0.2252 | -0.0491 | 4th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.5761 | -0.1936 | -0.3093 | 10th | 8 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.1593 | -0.0619 | +0.7770 | 74th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.0751 | -0.0975 | -0.5749 | 10th | 8 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 20.7651 | +12.3717 (+147.4%) | +12.6407 (+155.6%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 14.3464 | +9.3382 (+186.5%) | +11.3571 (+379.9%) |
| AI_boom | 13.0270 | +8.1568 (+167.5%) | +10.0648 (+339.8%) |
| energy_insecurity | 14.6642 | +9.0543 (+161.4%) | +8.4074 (+134.4%) |
| inflation | 10.6473 | +6.5707 (+161.2%) | +7.8201 (+276.6%) |
| stagflation | 6.7035 | +4.7312 (+239.9%) | +6.2800 (+1483.0%) |
| banking_crisis | 6.9815 | +4.0703 (+139.8%) | +5.5586 (+390.6%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 7.9250 | +4.8194 (+155.2%) | +3.9556 (+99.7%) |
| defense_rearmament | 5.0361 | +3.3412 (+197.1%) | +3.7866 (+303.1%) |
| crypto_adoption | 6.1780 | +3.2611 (+111.8%) | +3.3964 (+122.1%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stagflation | acceleration | 1.528 | 0.639 | 0.368 | 0.675 | 0.257 | 0.068 |
| banking_crisis | exhaustion | 1.412 | 0.643 | 0.406 | 0.603 | 0.216 | 0.181 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 1.121 | 0.504 | 0.399 | 0.332 | 0.568 | 0.100 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | crowding | 1.106 | 0.493 | 0.396 | 0.272 | 0.620 | 0.109 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 1.009 | 0.496 | 0.441 | 0.298 | 0.613 | 0.089 |
| commodities_supercycle | exhaustion | 0.972 | 0.421 | 0.383 | 0.188 | 0.736 | 0.075 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.950 | 0.499 | 0.475 | 0.225 | 0.685 | 0.090 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 0.947 | 0.448 | 0.423 | 0.440 | 0.516 | 0.044 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 0.937 | 0.428 | 0.407 | 0.200 | 0.720 | 0.080 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 0.920 | 0.404 | 0.389 | 0.181 | 0.746 | 0.073 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.829 | 0.437 | 0.478 | 0.254 | 0.695 | 0.051 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.815 | 0.379 | 0.415 | 0.244 | 0.731 | 0.024 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.778 | 0.451 | 0.529 | 0.414 | 0.586 | 0.000 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.763 | 0.352 | 0.411 | 0.353 | 0.647 | 0.000 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.714 | 0.398 | 0.508 | 0.217 | 0.740 | 0.043 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.692 | 0.383 | 0.503 | 0.273 | 0.727 | 0.000 |
| demographic_shift | exhaustion | 0.685 | 0.442 | 0.596 | 0.534 | 0.466 | 0.000 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.628 | 0.352 | 0.511 | 0.199 | 0.801 | 0.000 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.586 | 0.365 | 0.573 | 0.373 | 0.627 | 0.000 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.574 | 0.320 | 0.508 | 0.329 | 0.671 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
175 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-12 04:00 UTC