Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-02 (built 10:15 UTC), 224 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=+1.00
- euphoria z=+0.16
- fear z=-1.17
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-0.16
- hope z=+0.65
- optimism z=-0.95
- panic z=-0.02
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.24
2. energy_insecurity hope ↑
- confidence z=+0.91
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-1.48
- frustration z=+0.81
- greed z=-0.28
- hope z=+1.77
- optimism z=-0.37
- panic z=-0.29
- skepticism z=-1.05
- uncertainty z=-0.03
3. technology_paradigm_shift fear ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.82
- euphoria z=-0.18
- fear z=-2.04
- frustration z=-0.57
- greed z=+1.30
- hope z=+0.98
- optimism z=+0.47
- panic z=+0.63
- skepticism z=+0.62
- uncertainty z=-1.95
4. AI_boom fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.59
- euphoria z=-1.48
- fear z=-1.95
- frustration z=-0.11
- greed z=+0.33
- hope z=+0.89
- optimism z=+0.20
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+1.05
- uncertainty z=-1.23
5. crypto_adoption hope ↑ greed ↑
- confidence z=+1.49
- euphoria z=-0.98
- fear z=-0.20
- frustration z=+0.74
- greed z=+1.84
- hope z=+2.03
- optimism z=+0.09
- panic z=+0.40
- skepticism z=-0.21
- uncertainty z=-0.39
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism ↑ +5.09σ DoD
+5.09σ vs own history — +1731% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=+1.41
eu_us_relations ↑ +5.07σ DoD
+5.07σ vs own history — +836% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=+0.00
banking_crisis ↑ +3.08σ DoD
+3.08σ vs own history — +122% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.51
- fear z=-0.04
- frustration z=+0.48
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-1.31
- skepticism z=-0.23
- uncertainty z=+0.24
↓ Top Decreases
No decreases
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism: +4.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.47σ vs own history — +114443513065% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +4.45σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.45σ vs own history — +46791214882% change over the last 3 days.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
dollar_strength: +1.61σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.61σ vs own history — +513% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.12
- frustration z=-1.52
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.84
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.31
- uncertainty z=-0.35
↓ Top Decreases
housing_bubble: -0.72σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.72σ vs own history — -14% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.48
- fear z=-1.18
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-3.11
- optimism z=+0.06
- panic z=+1.79
- skepticism z=-0.84
- uncertainty z=-0.68
recession: -0.50σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.50σ vs own history — -4% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.31
- euphoria z=-0.31
- fear z=-0.71
- frustration z=-2.15
- greed z=+2.22
- hope z=-0.96
- optimism z=-0.68
- panic z=-0.28
- skepticism z=-1.01
- uncertainty z=-0.51
interest_rate_insecurity: -0.48σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.48σ vs own history — -15% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.14
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.60
- frustration z=-1.26
- greed z=+0.23
- hope z=+0.33
- optimism z=+0.40
- panic z=-0.73
- skepticism z=-1.87
- uncertainty z=+0.35
Narratives to Look Out For
geopolitical_riskp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.00
- euphoria z=+0.16
- fear z=-1.17
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-0.16
- hope z=+0.65
- optimism z=-0.95
- panic z=-0.02
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.24
energy_insecurityp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.91
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-1.48
- frustration z=+0.81
- greed z=-0.28
- hope z=+1.77
- optimism z=-0.37
- panic z=-0.29
- skepticism z=-1.05
- uncertainty z=-0.03
AI_boomp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.59
- euphoria z=-1.48
- fear z=-1.95
- frustration z=-0.11
- greed z=+0.33
- hope z=+0.89
- optimism z=+0.20
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+1.05
- uncertainty z=-1.23
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.10 — Skepticism z-score: -0.30.
Fear most concentrated in commodities_supercycle
Average fear score for commodities_supercycle: 0.65.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.61), energy_insecurity (0.62), technology_paradigm_shift (0.40).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.017 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
inflation (-3.2%), recession (-3.1%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch trade_protectionism: WoW rising (+114443513065%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.10, regime_score=-0.62
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 17.5679 | +6.9964 | +5.8446 | 100th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 11.3136 | +4.3249 | +3.3220 | 100th | 8 | |
| AI_boom | 8.2810 | +4.4046 | +4.1204 | 100th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 8.0164 | +3.5714 | +2.8657 | 100th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 7.1548 | +2.9265 | +2.6678 | 100th | 6 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.5221 | +2.7360 | +0.2528 | 91th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 4.4920 | +1.1138 | +0.9951 | 92th | 9 | |
| recession | 3.6367 | +0.3089 | -0.1655 | 72th | 9 | |
| inflation | 2.8455 | +0.3500 | -0.6835 | 52th | 8 | |
| defense_rearmament | 2.5139 | +0.9265 | +1.0193 | 100th | 6 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-02
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 17.5313 | +6.9598 (+65.8%) | +5.8080 (+49.5%) |
| AI_boom | 8.2637 | +4.3874 (+113.2%) | +4.1032 (+98.6%) |
| energy_insecurity | 11.2901 | +4.3014 (+61.5%) | +3.2985 (+41.3%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 7.9998 | +3.5547 (+80.0%) | +2.8490 (+55.3%) |
| crypto_adoption | 7.1399 | +2.9116 (+68.9%) | +2.6529 (+59.1%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.5106 | +2.7245 (+97.8%) | +0.2413 (+4.6%) |
| trade_protectionism | 1.1421 | +1.0796 (+1727.3%) | +1.1421 (+114205295863.1%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.4827 | +1.1045 (+32.7%) | +0.9858 (+28.2%) |
| defense_rearmament | 2.5087 | +0.9213 (+58.0%) | +1.0141 (+67.9%) |
| banking_crisis | 2.4082 | +1.3207 (+121.4%) | +0.6474 (+36.8%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
136 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-02 10:00 UTC