📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-03-30 04:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-03-30 (built 04:15 UTC), 187 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk 
  •  confidence z=+0.38
  •  euphoria z=+0.82
  •  fear z=-0.18
  •  frustration z=-0.23
  •  greed z=+0.56
  •  hope z=+0.06
  •  optimism z=+0.12
  •  panic z=+0.77
  •  skepticism z=+1.49
  •  uncertainty z=+0.05
2. energy_insecurity 
  •  confidence z=-0.99
  •  euphoria z=+0.90
  •  fear z=+0.11
  •  frustration z=-0.94
  •  greed z=+0.01
  •  hope z=+0.58
  •  optimism z=+0.67
  •  panic z=+1.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.22
  •  uncertainty z=-0.10
3. recession 
  •  confidence z=+0.84
  •  euphoria z=+1.11
  •  fear z=-0.87
  •  frustration z=+0.21
  •  greed z=-0.63
  •  hope z=+1.32
  •  optimism z=+0.32
  •  panic z=+0.35
  •  skepticism z=+0.10
  •  uncertainty z=+0.40
4. inflation   optimism 
  •  confidence z=+0.28
  •  euphoria z=+1.11
  •  fear z=-1.19
  •  frustration z=-0.14
  •  greed z=-0.87
  •  hope z=+1.27
  •  optimism z=+1.56
  •  panic z=+0.93
  •  skepticism z=+0.34
  •  uncertainty z=-0.51
5. commodities_supercycle   confidence 
  •  confidence z=-1.64
  •  euphoria z=+1.33
  •  fear z=-0.02
  •  frustration z=-0.35
  •  greed z=-0.92
  •  hope z=-0.79
  •  optimism z=+0.36
  •  panic z=+0.88
  •  skepticism z=-0.52
  •  uncertainty z=-0.75

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

earnings_miss: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_hike: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_cut: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00

↓ Top Decreases

sector_rotation -3.24σ DoD
-3.24σ vs own history — -59% change, now at 36th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.38
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.33
  •  frustration z=-0.78
  •  greed z=-0.58
  •  hope z=-0.02
  •  optimism z=-1.00
  •  panic z=-1.17
  •  skepticism z=-1.07
  •  uncertainty z=-0.05
recession -3.07σ DoD
-3.07σ vs own history — -60% change, now at 45th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.60
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.06
  •  frustration z=+0.17
  •  greed z=-0.71
  •  hope z=+0.07
  •  optimism z=-0.31
  •  panic z=-0.89
  •  skepticism z=-0.44
  •  uncertainty z=-0.22
banking_crisis -2.55σ DoD
-2.55σ vs own history — -47% change, now at 55th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.85
  •  frustration z=-0.62
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.56
  •  optimism z=-0.00
  •  panic z=-0.95
  •  skepticism z=+0.41
  •  uncertainty z=-0.29

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

earnings_miss: +0.67σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.67σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_cut: +0.66σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.66σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_hike: +0.65σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.65σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00

↓ Top Decreases

defense_rearmament: -2.46σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.46σ vs own history — -65% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-2.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+1.91
  •  frustration z=-0.20
  •  greed z=+2.41
  •  hope z=-1.89
  •  optimism z=+0.72
  •  panic z=+0.37
  •  skepticism z=+2.28
  •  uncertainty z=+2.02
commodities_supercycle: -2.33σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.33σ vs own history — -64% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.70
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.93
  •  frustration z=-1.99
  •  greed z=-0.93
  •  hope z=-2.36
  •  optimism z=-0.04
  •  panic z=+0.48
  •  skepticism z=-0.84
  •  uncertainty z=+0.26
energy_insecurity: -2.26σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.26σ vs own history — -63% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.01
  •  euphoria z=+0.46
  •  fear z=+0.28
  •  frustration z=-1.70
  •  greed z=-0.67
  •  hope z=-0.78
  •  optimism z=+0.12
  •  panic z=+0.88
  •  skepticism z=+0.55
  •  uncertainty z=+0.61

Narratives to Look Out For

fed_pivotp83

Attention is at the 83th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.45
  •  euphoria z=-1.24
  •  fear z=+0.33
  •  frustration z=+0.85
  •  greed z=-1.73
  •  hope z=-0.06
  •  optimism z=-0.47
  •  panic z=-0.04
  •  skepticism z=-0.92
  •  uncertainty z=+0.90
banking_crisisp55

Attention is at the 55th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-2.14
  •  fear z=-0.27
  •  frustration z=-1.59
  •  greed z=-0.85
  •  hope z=-1.86
  •  optimism z=-1.78
  •  panic z=-0.69
  •  skepticism z=+0.97
  •  uncertainty z=+0.47
interest_rate_insecurityp52

Attention is at the 52th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.38
  •  euphoria z=+0.82
  •  fear z=-1.78
  •  frustration z=-0.73
  •  greed z=-0.08
  •  hope z=+1.43
  •  optimism z=+0.03
  •  panic z=+0.85
  •  skepticism z=-0.24
  •  uncertainty z=-0.02

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: +0.38 — Skepticism z-score: -0.52.
Fear most concentrated in energy_transition
Average fear score for energy_transition: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.65), energy_insecurity (0.67), recession (0.60).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.009.

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p31 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch earnings_miss: WoW rising (+0%)
If trend continues → reduce equity beta, raise cash.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=+0.38, regime_score=+0.75

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk5.9626-4.5301-9.645031th10
energy_insecurity3.7385-3.4853-6.309535th8
inflation2.4189-3.2887-1.161945th9
recession2.1927-3.2798-1.535445th9
commodities_supercycle2.1552-2.5025-3.915735th8
technology_paradigm_shift1.9949-2.0788-2.353824th10
AI_boom1.9210-1.9638-2.914634th9
sector_rotation1.8320-2.6832-2.240136th8
interest_rate_insecurity1.7771-1.4049-0.039152th10
crypto_adoption1.5475-2.4029-3.006734th3

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-30

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
fed_pivot1.0225-0.3455 (-25.3%)+0.3327 (+48.2%)
earnings_miss0.0000+0.0000 (+0.0%)+0.0000 (+0.0%)
crypto_regulation0.0000+0.0000 (+0.0%)+0.0000 (+0.0%)
interest_rate_hike0.0000+0.0000 (+0.0%)+0.0000 (+0.0%)
interest_rate_cut0.0000+0.0000 (+0.0%)+0.0000 (+0.0%)
dollar_weakness0.0000+0.0000 (+0.0%)+0.0000 (+0.0%)
housing_bubble0.0500-0.0500 (-50.0%)-0.1076 (-68.3%)
demographic_shift0.0908-0.3459 (-79.2%)-0.2044 (-69.2%)
deglobalisation0.0706-0.2316 (-76.6%)-0.2856 (-80.2%)
ex_usa_trade0.4039-0.3371 (-45.5%)-0.3787 (-48.4%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

123 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-03-30 04:00 UTC