📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-03-23 17:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-03-23 (built 17:15 UTC), 292 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: risk-off — led by defense_rearmament, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. defense_rearmament   ⚠️ hope z=+1.73   ⚠️ skepticism z=-1.56
  •  confidence z=+0.45
  •  euphoria z=+0.87
  •  fear z=+0.52
  •  frustration z=+1.31
  •  greed z=-0.63
  •  hope z=+1.73
  •  optimism z=+0.84
  •  panic z=+0.76
  •  skepticism z=-1.56
  •  uncertainty z=+0.33
2. energy_insecurity   ⚠️ optimism z=+1.51
  •  confidence z=-0.75
  •  euphoria z=+0.48
  •  fear z=-0.34
  •  frustration z=+0.66
  •  greed z=+0.13
  •  hope z=+1.16
  •  optimism z=+1.51
  •  panic z=+0.49
  •  skepticism z=-0.27
  •  uncertainty z=-1.43
3. commodities_supercycle   ⚠️ frustration z=+1.87   ⚠️ uncertainty z=-1.57
  •  confidence z=-1.29
  •  euphoria z=+0.75
  •  fear z=+1.32
  •  frustration z=+1.87
  •  greed z=-0.04
  •  hope z=+1.27
  •  optimism z=+1.27
  •  panic z=+1.07
  •  skepticism z=+0.60
  •  uncertainty z=-1.57
4. geopolitical_risk 
  •  confidence z=-0.11
  •  euphoria z=+0.73
  •  fear z=+1.21
  •  frustration z=+1.02
  •  greed z=+0.47
  •  hope z=+0.99
  •  optimism z=+1.03
  •  panic z=+0.66
  •  skepticism z=+0.99
  •  uncertainty z=+0.89
5. crypto_adoption   ⚠️ fear z=+2.66
  •  confidence z=+0.98
  •  euphoria z=-0.18
  •  fear z=+2.66
  •  frustration z=+0.41
  •  greed z=-0.63
  •  hope z=-0.01
  •  optimism z=-0.12
  •  panic z=+0.60
  •  skepticism z=-0.86
  •  uncertainty z=+0.16

What Changed Since Yesterday

geopolitical_risk up: +23%
+2.45 DoD change — now at 88th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.09
  •  euphoria z=-0.44
  •  fear z=+0.45
  •  frustration z=+1.49
  •  greed z=-1.54
  •  hope z=+2.02
  •  optimism z=+0.53
  •  panic z=+0.13
  •  skepticism z=+1.51
  •  uncertainty z=+0.21
energy_insecurity up: +16%
+1.19 DoD change — now at 92th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.64
  •  euphoria z=-0.33
  •  fear z=-0.78
  •  frustration z=+1.11
  •  greed z=-0.33
  •  hope z=+1.23
  •  optimism z=+1.15
  •  panic z=-0.20
  •  skepticism z=+0.20
  •  uncertainty z=-0.91
technology_paradigm_shift down: -18%
-0.80 DoD change — now at 40th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.05
  •  euphoria z=-0.47
  •  fear z=+0.30
  •  frustration z=-0.96
  •  greed z=-2.00
  •  hope z=+0.38
  •  optimism z=+0.39
  •  panic z=+0.51
  •  skepticism z=+0.01
  •  uncertainty z=-0.59

What Changed Since Last Week

geopolitical_risk: +869% WoW — trend decelerating
+11.72 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+1.84
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+1.00
  •  frustration z=+2.72
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+2.53
  •  skepticism z=-1.18
  •  uncertainty z=-0.06
energy_insecurity: +1002% WoW — trend decelerating
+7.85 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-2.58
  •  frustration z=+2.13
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-1.51
  •  uncertainty z=-0.66
commodities_supercycle: +1378% WoW — trend accelerating
+4.56 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+1.84
  •  frustration z=+2.87
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-1.13
  •  uncertainty z=-2.51

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear elevated, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: +1.64 — Skepticism z-score: -0.21.
Fear most concentrated in technology_paradigm_shift
Average fear score for technology_paradigm_shift: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
defense_rearmament (0.76), energy_insecurity (0.71), commodities_supercycle (0.74).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.013 vs 7-day baseline 0.047.

Watchlist

Watch defense_rearmament: if it remains above p90 for 3 days
Action: review positioning.
Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+869%)
If trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=+1.64, regime_score=+2.62

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk13.0694+2.4521+11.721288th10
energy_insecurity8.6338+1.1878+7.850492th8
commodities_supercycle4.8924+0.7260+4.561592th8
AI_boom4.1374-0.7428+3.617458th10
crypto_adoption3.7145+0.4355+3.678188th6
technology_paradigm_shift3.6532-0.7965+3.036540th10
sector_rotation3.5031-0.2919+3.269387th10
recession3.2809+0.2822+2.773769th10
inflation3.2803-0.0326+2.884565th9
defense_rearmament1.9550+0.0489+1.5450100th8

Database Overview

TableRowsColumns
emotion_scores10,771id, post_id, emotion, score
fetch_runs97id, started_at
narrative_gap_analyses41id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response
narrative_scores7,278id, post_id, narrative, score
post_rankings23,140id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank
posts5,023id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at
sqlite_sequence5name, seq

Posts

5,023 total posts  |  3,563 analyzed

By Subreddit

SubredditPosts
r/ValueInvesting798
r/cryptocurrency719
r/wallstreetbets684
r/investing644
r/economics598
r/stocks568
r/StockMarket401
r/options338
r/finance103
r/SecurityAnalysis69
r/TrueReddit66
r/PoliticalDiscussion35

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-23

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
geopolitical_risk13.0694+2.4521 (+23.1%)+11.7212 (+869.4%)
energy_insecurity8.6338+1.1878 (+16.0%)+7.8504 (+1002.2%)
commodities_supercycle4.8924+0.7260 (+17.4%)+4.5615 (+1378.3%)
crypto_adoption3.7145+0.4355 (+13.3%)+3.6781 (+10114.9%)
AI_boom4.1374-0.7428 (-15.2%)+3.6174 (+695.7%)
sector_rotation3.5031-0.2919 (-7.7%)+3.2693 (+1398.3%)
recession3.2809+0.2822 (+9.4%)+2.7737 (+546.8%)
inflation3.2803-0.0326 (-1.0%)+2.8845 (+728.9%)
technology_paradigm_shift3.6532-0.7965 (-17.9%)+3.0365 (+492.4%)
defense_rearmament1.9550+0.0489 (+2.6%)+1.5450 (+376.8%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

97 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-03-23 17:00 UTC

Additional Tables

narrative_gap_analyses 41 rows

idanalyzed_atmax_age_daysmax_scorepost_countcommon_narrativenarrative_certaintycommon_emotion
11772708617.26657250.5381Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload.0.85anxiety
21772730380.06461450.5377Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization.0.75anxious
31772751792.982409550.5383Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload.0.75anxious
41772773399.012550850.5387Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline.0.85anxious
51772794990.778048550.5390Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility.0.85anxious determination

sqlite_sequence 5 rows

nameseq
emotion_scores10771
narrative_scores7278
fetch_runs97
post_rankings23140
narrative_gap_analyses41