Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-01 (built 11:15 UTC), 219 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=-1.32
- euphoria z=+0.18
- fear z=-1.58
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=-0.67
- hope z=+0.09
- optimism z=+1.05
- panic z=+1.02
- skepticism z=+0.72
- uncertainty z=-0.70
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.58
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-2.34
- frustration z=-1.19
- greed z=-2.29
- hope z=-0.80
- optimism z=-0.18
- panic z=+1.54
- skepticism z=+0.87
- uncertainty z=-1.19
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.33
- euphoria z=+1.55
- fear z=+0.93
- frustration z=-1.37
- greed z=-1.17
- hope z=-0.26
- optimism z=+0.06
- panic z=+0.66
- skepticism z=-0.28
- uncertainty z=-0.16
4. crypto_adoption panic ↑ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.75
- euphoria z=+0.58
- fear z=-0.26
- frustration z=-0.31
- greed z=-0.57
- hope z=-0.97
- optimism z=-0.37
- panic z=+1.59
- skepticism z=-0.53
- uncertainty z=-1.54
5. AI_boom
- confidence z=+0.07
- euphoria z=+0.78
- fear z=-0.77
- frustration z=-0.64
- greed z=-0.52
- hope z=-0.26
- optimism z=+0.05
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+0.89
- uncertainty z=-1.49
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
banking_crisis ↑ +1.90σ DoD
+1.90σ vs own history — +59% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.96
- fear z=+1.83
- frustration z=-0.12
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.60
- optimism z=-0.65
- panic z=+2.12
- skepticism z=+0.75
- uncertainty z=+0.64
technology_paradigm_shift ↑ +1.59σ DoD
+1.59σ vs own history — +42% change, now at 95th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.07
- euphoria z=+0.71
- fear z=-0.57
- frustration z=-0.88
- greed z=+0.21
- hope z=-0.10
- optimism z=+0.21
- panic z=-0.00
- skepticism z=+0.12
- uncertainty z=+0.45
recession ↑ +1.51σ DoD
+1.51σ vs own history — +52% change, now at 86th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.25
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.35
- frustration z=+0.35
- greed z=+1.63
- hope z=-1.73
- optimism z=-0.42
- panic z=+0.58
- skepticism z=-0.84
- uncertainty z=+0.39
↓ Top Decreases
demographic_shift ↓ -0.52σ DoD
-0.52σ vs own history — -61% change, now at 12th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.62
- frustration z=-0.41
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.91
- uncertainty z=+1.65
interest_rate_insecurity ↓ -0.26σ DoD
-0.26σ vs own history — -7% change, now at 74th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.70
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.90
- frustration z=+1.82
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.34
- optimism z=+0.90
- panic z=-1.60
- skepticism z=-2.38
- uncertainty z=+0.87
fed_pivot ↓ -0.07σ DoD
-0.07σ vs own history — -1% change, now at 79th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.54
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.33
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.18
- hope z=-0.57
- optimism z=+0.30
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.03
- uncertainty z=+1.11
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength: +1.14σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.14σ vs own history — +199% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.42
- frustration z=-0.98
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-1.96
- skepticism z=-1.18
- uncertainty z=-0.17
crypto_adoption: +0.73σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.73σ vs own history — +70% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.94
- euphoria z=+1.90
- fear z=+1.68
- frustration z=-1.83
- greed z=+1.46
- hope z=+0.93
- optimism z=-0.11
- panic z=+3.41
- skepticism z=+0.09
- uncertainty z=-0.49
inflation: +0.57σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.57σ vs own history — +149% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.50
- euphoria z=+0.26
- fear z=-1.14
- frustration z=+0.15
- greed z=-1.21
- hope z=-0.35
- optimism z=-0.97
- panic z=-0.33
- skepticism z=+0.39
- uncertainty z=-1.33
↓ Top Decreases
demographic_shift: -1.27σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.27σ vs own history — -80% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.39
- frustration z=-2.33
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.05
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.22
- uncertainty z=-1.36
housing_bubble: -1.12σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.12σ vs own history — -50% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.31
- fear z=+1.84
- frustration z=-0.81
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-2.25
- optimism z=+1.98
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.48
- uncertainty z=-2.41
defense_rearmament: -0.97σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.97σ vs own history — -11% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.95
- euphoria z=+0.51
- fear z=+0.72
- frustration z=-2.57
- greed z=+1.97
- hope z=-3.47
- optimism z=-2.53
- panic z=-1.10
- skepticism z=+1.35
- uncertainty z=+2.17
Narratives to Look Out For
geopolitical_riskp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.32
- euphoria z=+0.18
- fear z=-1.58
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=-0.67
- hope z=+0.09
- optimism z=+1.05
- panic z=+1.02
- skepticism z=+0.72
- uncertainty z=-0.70
crypto_adoptionp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.75
- euphoria z=+0.58
- fear z=-0.26
- frustration z=-0.31
- greed z=-0.57
- hope z=-0.97
- optimism z=-0.37
- panic z=+1.59
- skepticism z=-0.53
- uncertainty z=-1.54
banking_crisisp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.52
- fear z=-1.07
- frustration z=-1.06
- greed z=-0.15
- hope z=-2.63
- optimism z=-1.67
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=+1.08
- uncertainty z=-1.14
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: -2.80 — Skepticism z-score: -0.71.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.82.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.66), energy_insecurity (0.71), technology_paradigm_shift (0.50).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.003 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch dollar_strength: WoW rising (+199%)
If trend continues → EM underweight, USD longs.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.80, regime_score=+1.46
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.6217 | +3.9083 | +4.7940 | 100th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 10.0035 | +2.1075 | +3.6232 | 95th | 7 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.6092 | +1.9432 | +1.3255 | 95th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 6.3333 | +1.4228 | +2.6126 | 100th | 6 | |
| AI_boom | 5.0974 | +0.9148 | +0.3389 | 93th | 9 | |
| recession | 5.0105 | +1.7106 | +1.7621 | 86th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.5518 | +1.0168 | +0.5771 | 73th | 7 | |
| sector_rotation | 4.2658 | +0.9549 | +0.9032 | 83th | 8 | |
| inflation | 4.1289 | +0.6840 | +2.4681 | 79th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.7551 | -0.2168 | +1.1879 | 74th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-01
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.5930 | +3.8796 (+33.1%) | +4.7653 (+44.0%) |
| energy_insecurity | 9.9851 | +2.0891 (+26.5%) | +3.6048 (+56.5%) |
| crypto_adoption | 6.3217 | +1.4111 (+28.7%) | +2.6009 (+69.9%) |
| inflation | 4.1213 | +0.6764 (+19.6%) | +2.4605 (+148.1%) |
| recession | 5.0013 | +1.7014 (+51.6%) | +1.7529 (+54.0%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 6.5971 | +1.9310 (+41.4%) | +1.3133 (+24.9%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.2580 | +0.9470 (+28.6%) | +0.8954 (+26.6%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.5435 | +1.0084 (+28.5%) | +0.5687 (+14.3%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.7500 | -0.2219 (-7.5%) | +1.1828 (+75.5%) |
| AI_boom | 5.0880 | +0.9054 (+21.6%) | +0.3296 (+6.9%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
132 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-01 10:00 UTC