Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-29 (built 19:00 UTC), 241 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=-0.20
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=+1.35
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=-0.38
- hope z=-0.85
- optimism z=+0.03
- panic z=+0.67
- skepticism z=+0.36
- uncertainty z=+0.57
2. energy_insecurity fear ↑
- confidence z=+0.39
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=+2.00
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=-0.64
- hope z=-0.46
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=+0.88
- skepticism z=+0.14
- uncertainty z=-0.96
3. recession euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.17
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.57
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=-0.25
- hope z=+1.28
- optimism z=+1.13
- panic z=+1.09
- skepticism z=+0.18
- uncertainty z=+0.53
4. inflation euphoria ↑
- confidence z=-0.62
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+1.14
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+0.46
- optimism z=+0.96
- panic z=+1.15
- skepticism z=+0.02
- uncertainty z=+0.31
5. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=-0.22
- euphoria z=-1.23
- fear z=-0.83
- frustration z=+0.29
- greed z=-1.21
- hope z=-0.01
- optimism z=+0.10
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=-0.67
- uncertainty z=-0.34
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
commodities_supercycle ↑ +0.48σ DoD
+0.48σ vs own history — +18% change, now at 63th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.14
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.14
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=-0.36
- hope z=-0.37
- optimism z=-0.08
- panic z=+0.25
- skepticism z=-0.92
- uncertainty z=-0.18
dollar_strength ↑ +0.34σ DoD
+0.34σ vs own history — +26% change, now at 75th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.50
- fear z=+0.30
- frustration z=+0.15
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+1.00
- skepticism z=+0.76
- uncertainty z=+1.33
inflation ↑ +0.29σ DoD
+0.29σ vs own history — +12% change, now at 90th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.31
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.20
- frustration z=-0.68
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.31
- optimism z=+2.08
- panic z=+0.45
- skepticism z=-0.49
- uncertainty z=-0.80
↓ Top Decreases
recession ↓ -1.47σ DoD
-1.47σ vs own history — -21% change, now at 90th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.45
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.19
- frustration z=-0.21
- greed z=+0.07
- hope z=+0.38
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=+0.12
- skepticism z=-0.61
- uncertainty z=-0.37
defense_rearmament ↓ -1.23σ DoD
-1.23σ vs own history — -20% change, now at 27th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.09
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+2.18
- frustration z=+0.07
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.40
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-0.68
- skepticism z=+0.52
- uncertainty z=+0.43
stagflation ↓ -1.12σ DoD
-1.12σ vs own history — -29% change, now at 73th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.32
- frustration z=-0.76
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.18
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.44
- skepticism z=-0.21
- uncertainty z=-0.24
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength: +0.80σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.80σ vs own history — +143% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.38
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.13
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.34
- skepticism z=+0.94
- uncertainty z=+1.59
earnings_miss: +0.61σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.61σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_cut: +0.61σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.61σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -1.96σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.96σ vs own history — -42% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.95
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.80
- frustration z=+0.19
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.42
- optimism z=+0.73
- panic z=-1.00
- skepticism z=-0.29
- uncertainty z=+0.15
energy_insecurity: -1.06σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.06σ vs own history — -16% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.98
- euphoria z=-0.92
- fear z=+1.72
- frustration z=-0.04
- greed z=-1.58
- hope z=-0.24
- optimism z=+0.19
- panic z=+0.62
- skepticism z=+0.90
- uncertainty z=-1.02
technology_paradigm_shift: -1.03σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.03σ vs own history — -23% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.20
- euphoria z=-1.19
- fear z=-0.39
- frustration z=+0.25
- greed z=-1.76
- hope z=+0.54
- optimism z=+0.79
- panic z=-0.20
- skepticism z=-0.47
- uncertainty z=-1.59
Narratives to Look Out For
recessionp90
Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.17
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.57
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=-0.25
- hope z=+1.28
- optimism z=+1.13
- panic z=+1.09
- skepticism z=+0.18
- uncertainty z=+0.53
inflationp90
Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.62
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+1.14
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+0.46
- optimism z=+0.96
- panic z=+1.15
- skepticism z=+0.02
- uncertainty z=+0.31
sector_rotationp86
Attention is at the 86th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.62
- euphoria z=+0.01
- fear z=+0.36
- frustration z=-0.30
- greed z=-0.79
- hope z=-0.02
- optimism z=+0.38
- panic z=+1.47
- skepticism z=+0.48
- uncertainty z=+0.66
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear elevated, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: +1.07 — Skepticism z-score: -0.64.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.85.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.72), energy_insecurity (0.76), recession (0.71).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.010.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p48 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch dollar_strength: WoW rising (+143%)
If trend continues → EM underweight, USD longs.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+1.07, regime_score=+3.32
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 8.7874 | -0.7978 | -1.7562 | 48th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.2864 | +0.2297 | -1.1595 | 53th | 8 | |
| recession | 4.5447 | -1.2214 | +1.6062 | 90th | 10 | |
| inflation | 4.5399 | +0.4762 | +1.2270 | 90th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.0533 | +0.6260 | -0.1131 | 63th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.9486 | -0.5437 | +0.1536 | 86th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.4484 | -1.0033 | -1.0012 | 25th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 3.3228 | -1.2531 | -1.5575 | 45th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.0727 | -0.5680 | -0.2063 | 52th | 4 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.4244 | +0.1085 | +0.5543 | 85th | 9 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 14,019 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 121 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 9,596 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 28,900 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 6,045 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
6,045 total posts | 4,585 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 932 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 864 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 814 |
| r/investing | 774 |
| r/economics | 713 |
| r/stocks | 690 |
| r/StockMarket | 477 |
| r/options | 409 |
| r/finance | 114 |
| r/TrueReddit | 114 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 75 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 69 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-29
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| inflation | 4.5399 | +0.4762 (+11.7%) | +1.2270 (+37.0%) |
| recession | 4.5447 | -1.2214 (-21.2%) | +1.6062 (+54.7%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.4244 | +0.1085 (+4.7%) | +0.5543 (+29.6%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.7592 | +0.1556 (+25.8%) | +0.4471 (+143.3%) |
| stagflation | 1.4031 | -0.5836 (-29.4%) | +0.8584 (+157.6%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.0533 | +0.6260 (+18.3%) | -0.1131 (-2.7%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.0332 | +0.0549 (+5.6%) | +0.2493 (+31.8%) |
| energy_transition | 0.6043 | -0.0021 (-0.3%) | +0.2091 (+52.9%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.3867 | -0.0233 (-5.7%) | +0.1642 (+73.8%) |
| banking_crisis | 1.3817 | -0.2994 (-17.8%) | +0.2980 (+27.5%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
121 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-29 16:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 14019 |
| narrative_scores | 9596 |
| fetch_runs | 121 |
| post_rankings | 28900 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |