Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-12 (built 10:15 UTC), 209 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-1.04
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=-1.40
- frustration z=-0.95
- greed z=-0.60
- hope z=-0.34
- optimism z=-2.24
- panic z=+1.34
- skepticism z=-1.50
- uncertainty z=-1.84
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-2.02
- euphoria z=+0.93
- fear z=-1.60
- frustration z=-1.52
- greed z=-0.89
- hope z=-2.74
- optimism z=-2.16
- panic z=+1.26
- skepticism z=-1.58
- uncertainty z=-1.36
3. technology_paradigm_shift optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.43
- euphoria z=+1.48
- fear z=-1.71
- frustration z=-0.03
- greed z=-0.17
- hope z=-0.16
- optimism z=-1.82
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=+1.28
- uncertainty z=-0.53
4. AI_boom fear ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.62
- euphoria z=+1.63
- fear z=-2.08
- frustration z=-0.94
- greed z=-0.44
- hope z=-0.42
- optimism z=-1.80
- panic z=+0.95
- skepticism z=-0.11
- uncertainty z=-0.43
5. inflation confidence ↓ uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-2.07
- euphoria z=+1.09
- fear z=-1.25
- frustration z=-1.02
- greed z=+1.09
- hope z=-1.22
- optimism z=-1.31
- panic z=+1.17
- skepticism z=-0.35
- uncertainty z=-1.66
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
housing_bubble ↑ +0.21σ DoD
+0.21σ vs own history — +46% change, now at 38th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
demographic_shift ↑ +0.08σ DoD
+0.08σ vs own history — +7% change, now at 67th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.20
- fear z=+0.34
- frustration z=+0.08
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.07
- optimism z=-0.42
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.03
- uncertainty z=+0.46
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -1.04σ DoD
-1.04σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.14
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.55
- frustration z=+0.82
- greed z=-0.05
- hope z=+0.42
- optimism z=+0.07
- panic z=+0.06
- skepticism z=-0.27
- uncertainty z=-0.31
crypto_adoption ↓ -0.88σ DoD
-0.88σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.04
- frustration z=+0.37
- greed z=+0.09
- hope z=-0.33
- optimism z=+0.42
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.21
- uncertainty z=-0.30
AI_boom ↓ -0.82σ DoD
-0.82σ vs own history — -6% change, now at 31th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.13
- euphoria z=-0.48
- fear z=-0.47
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=-0.06
- optimism z=-0.10
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.35
- uncertainty z=-0.50
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +1.20σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.20σ vs own history — +278% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.68
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.23
- frustration z=-0.47
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.14
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+3.18
- skepticism z=+0.18
- uncertainty z=-1.67
banking_crisis: +0.72σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.72σ vs own history — +55% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.94
- fear z=-0.95
- frustration z=+0.06
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.78
- optimism z=-1.25
- panic z=+3.96
- skepticism z=-0.87
- uncertainty z=-1.18
technology_paradigm_shift: +0.38σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.38σ vs own history — +47% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.39
- euphoria z=+1.14
- fear z=-0.08
- frustration z=-1.86
- greed z=+0.21
- hope z=+0.49
- optimism z=-1.84
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.45
- uncertainty z=+1.61
↓ Top Decreases
commodities_supercycle: -0.84σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.84σ vs own history — -14% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.37
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.80
- frustration z=-1.69
- greed z=+0.98
- hope z=+0.32
- optimism z=-2.29
- panic z=+1.30
- skepticism z=-1.05
- uncertainty z=-0.35
housing_bubble: -0.72σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.72σ vs own history — -67% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.20
- frustration z=-0.27
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.50
- uncertainty z=+0.07
sector_rotation: -0.70σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.70σ vs own history — -15% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.78
- euphoria z=-0.09
- fear z=-1.32
- frustration z=+1.36
- greed z=-0.93
- hope z=+2.06
- optimism z=-4.02
- panic z=+1.31
- skepticism z=+0.44
- uncertainty z=+0.20
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.32
- fear z=-1.55
- frustration z=-0.89
- greed z=-1.33
- hope z=+0.16
- optimism z=-1.13
- panic z=+1.28
- skepticism z=-0.67
- uncertainty z=-1.40
deglobalisationp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.04
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.61
- frustration z=-0.31
- greed z=+0.55
- hope z=+0.62
- optimism z=-0.11
- panic z=+0.75
- skepticism z=+1.14
- uncertainty z=-2.97
stagflationp85
Attention is at the 85th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.93
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.05
- frustration z=-1.17
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=+1.45
- optimism z=+0.55
- panic z=+0.85
- skepticism z=-1.22
- uncertainty z=-1.73
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.02 — Skepticism z-score: +0.16.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.77.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.59), energy_insecurity (0.64), technology_paradigm_shift (0.35).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p24 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+278%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.02, regime_score=+0.92
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.0315 | -0.6507 | +0.0114 | 14th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.2474 | -0.3800 | -0.2413 | 17th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.0646 | -0.2958 | +1.6246 | 24th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.6975 | -0.3264 | +1.4263 | 31th | 9 | |
| inflation | 3.9750 | -0.2790 | +1.2055 | 33th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.4623 | -0.2532 | -0.5650 | 7th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.0373 | -0.3274 | -0.1513 | 4th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.4629 | -0.3067 | -0.4225 | 4th | 8 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.1395 | -0.0817 | +0.7572 | 93th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.0493 | -0.1234 | -0.6007 | 4th | 8 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 15.4700 | +7.1337 (+85.6%) | +7.4183 (+92.1%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 9.2686 | +4.2603 (+85.1%) | +6.2792 (+210.1%) |
| energy_insecurity | 11.3037 | +5.6938 (+101.5%) | +5.0469 (+80.7%) |
| AI_boom | 8.1498 | +3.2796 (+67.3%) | +5.1875 (+175.1%) |
| inflation | 6.8728 | +2.7962 (+68.6%) | +4.0455 (+143.1%) |
| stagflation | 4.0509 | +2.0785 (+105.4%) | +3.6274 (+856.6%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.8990 | +2.7934 (+89.9%) | +1.9295 (+48.6%) |
| banking_crisis | 4.2867 | +1.3755 (+47.2%) | +2.8637 (+201.3%) |
| defense_rearmament | 3.3131 | +1.6396 (+98.0%) | +2.0909 (+171.1%) |
| crypto_adoption | 4.2707 | +1.3538 (+46.4%) | +1.4892 (+53.5%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-12
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stagflation | acceleration | 1.549 | 0.651 | 0.370 | 0.701 | 0.229 | 0.070 |
| banking_crisis | crowding | 1.510 | 0.694 | 0.410 | 0.716 | 0.069 | 0.215 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 1.122 | 0.545 | 0.435 | 0.629 | 0.308 | 0.063 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 1.089 | 0.505 | 0.414 | 0.338 | 0.560 | 0.102 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | crowding | 1.082 | 0.481 | 0.394 | 0.260 | 0.636 | 0.104 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 1.017 | 0.510 | 0.452 | 0.345 | 0.552 | 0.103 |
| commodities_supercycle | exhaustion | 0.994 | 0.424 | 0.377 | 0.206 | 0.712 | 0.082 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 0.983 | 0.439 | 0.397 | 0.238 | 0.667 | 0.095 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 0.976 | 0.422 | 0.382 | 0.224 | 0.686 | 0.090 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.950 | 0.516 | 0.494 | 0.263 | 0.632 | 0.105 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.819 | 0.378 | 0.412 | 0.401 | 0.599 | 0.000 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.818 | 0.472 | 0.527 | 0.460 | 0.540 | 0.000 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.802 | 0.417 | 0.470 | 0.222 | 0.734 | 0.044 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.788 | 0.373 | 0.424 | 0.248 | 0.728 | 0.025 |
| demographic_shift | exhaustion | 0.740 | 0.474 | 0.591 | 0.577 | 0.423 | 0.000 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.611 | 0.363 | 0.544 | 0.179 | 0.786 | 0.036 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.611 | 0.375 | 0.564 | 0.377 | 0.623 | 0.000 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.590 | 0.338 | 0.524 | 0.205 | 0.795 | 0.000 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.582 | 0.337 | 0.528 | 0.226 | 0.774 | 0.000 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.557 | 0.317 | 0.518 | 0.390 | 0.610 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
176 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-12 10:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.13
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -1.042 | -0.417 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.022 | -0.307 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.464 | -0.146 |
| Average Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.283 | -0.257 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.