Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-11 (built 10:15 UTC), 206 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.12
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=-1.75
- frustration z=-0.43
- greed z=-0.26
- hope z=-1.03
- optimism z=-2.38
- panic z=+0.66
- skepticism z=-0.64
- uncertainty z=-1.27
2. energy_insecurity hope ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.08
- euphoria z=+0.93
- fear z=-1.86
- frustration z=-1.18
- greed z=-0.97
- hope z=-2.42
- optimism z=-1.95
- panic z=+0.47
- skepticism z=-0.79
- uncertainty z=-1.35
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.34
- euphoria z=+1.98
- fear z=-1.30
- frustration z=-0.97
- greed z=-0.09
- hope z=+0.48
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=+0.15
4. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.39
- euphoria z=+2.12
- fear z=-1.38
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=-1.97
- panic z=+0.95
- skepticism z=-0.83
- uncertainty z=+0.25
5. commodities_supercycle optimism ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.19
- euphoria z=-0.27
- fear z=-1.87
- frustration z=-1.79
- greed z=+0.02
- hope z=+1.43
- optimism z=-2.33
- panic z=+0.26
- skepticism z=-0.54
- uncertainty z=-1.14
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
banking_crisis ↑ +0.15σ DoD
+0.15σ vs own history — +5% change, now at 97th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.02
- fear z=-0.11
- frustration z=+0.19
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.36
- optimism z=-0.55
- panic z=+0.20
- skepticism z=+0.72
- uncertainty z=-0.08
deglobalisation ↑ +0.03σ DoD
+0.03σ vs own history — +5% change, now at 50th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.13
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.18
- frustration z=+0.45
- greed z=-0.11
- hope z=+0.80
- optimism z=+0.12
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.01
- uncertainty z=-1.37
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament ↓ -1.41σ DoD
-1.41σ vs own history — -13% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.01
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.23
- frustration z=+0.26
- greed z=-0.06
- hope z=+0.03
- optimism z=-0.18
- panic z=+0.22
- skepticism z=-0.37
- uncertainty z=+0.16
geopolitical_risk ↓ -1.26σ DoD
-1.26σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 14th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.21
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.03
- frustration z=-0.15
- greed z=+0.10
- hope z=-0.37
- optimism z=-0.63
- panic z=+0.29
- skepticism z=+0.23
- uncertainty z=-0.18
energy_insecurity ↓ -1.22σ DoD
-1.22σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.12
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.04
- frustration z=-0.33
- greed z=+0.24
- hope z=-1.28
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=+0.49
- skepticism z=+0.06
- uncertainty z=-0.31
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +0.97σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.97σ vs own history — +219% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.00
- frustration z=-1.34
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.50
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.46
- skepticism z=-1.64
- uncertainty z=-2.08
inflation: +0.30σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.30σ vs own history — +51% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.54
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.99
- frustration z=-1.28
- greed z=+0.54
- hope z=-2.11
- optimism z=-1.35
- panic z=+1.97
- skepticism z=-0.60
- uncertainty z=-1.17
technology_paradigm_shift: +0.17σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.17σ vs own history — +34% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.18
- euphoria z=+2.17
- fear z=-0.75
- frustration z=-1.92
- greed z=+2.68
- hope z=+0.31
- optimism z=-0.53
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.42
- uncertainty z=+1.34
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation: -1.05σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.05σ vs own history — -30% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.43
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.89
- uncertainty z=-0.06
ex_usa_trade: -0.91σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.91σ vs own history — -43% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.03
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.19
- frustration z=-1.20
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.50
- optimism z=+0.87
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+2.24
- uncertainty z=-0.89
dollar_strength: -0.81σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.81σ vs own history — -6% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.83
- fear z=-0.88
- frustration z=+0.90
- greed z=-0.26
- hope z=+2.75
- optimism z=+1.21
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.57
- uncertainty z=-3.12
Narratives to Look Out For
AI_boomp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.39
- euphoria z=+2.12
- fear z=-1.38
- frustration z=-1.10
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=-0.28
- optimism z=-1.97
- panic z=+0.95
- skepticism z=-0.83
- uncertainty z=+0.25
technology_paradigm_shiftp90
Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.34
- euphoria z=+1.98
- fear z=-1.30
- frustration z=-0.97
- greed z=-0.09
- hope z=+0.48
- optimism z=-0.38
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=+0.15
stagflationp88
Attention is at the 88th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.85
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.73
- frustration z=-1.52
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=+2.08
- optimism z=+0.52
- panic z=+0.52
- skepticism z=-1.70
- uncertainty z=-1.93
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.41 — Skepticism z-score: -0.08.
Fear most concentrated in recession
Average fear score for recession: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.57), energy_insecurity (0.54), technology_paradigm_shift (0.50).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.014 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.6%), energy_insecurity (-3.6%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p31 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+219%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.41, regime_score=-1.13
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.9391 | -1.2376 | -0.2449 | 14th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.8486 | -0.8684 | +0.0299 | 11th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.2227 | -0.5056 | +1.3114 | 17th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.8175 | -0.3602 | +1.2373 | 32th | 9 | |
| inflation | 4.2386 | -0.2639 | +1.4317 | 41th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.8813 | -0.4992 | -0.2788 | 11th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.3910 | -0.4215 | -0.2046 | 4th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.9141 | -0.2764 | +0.1315 | 17th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.1577 | -0.1389 | -0.8343 | 14th | 9 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9765 | -0.0873 | +0.4753 | 45th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-11
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI_boom | 8.1429 | +2.2473 (+38.1%) | +4.9722 (+156.8%) |
| inflation | 7.6200 | +2.1149 (+38.4%) | +4.6048 (+152.7%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 7.8394 | +1.6190 (+26.0%) | +4.2518 (+118.5%) |
| geopolitical_risk | 12.5529 | +2.7384 (+27.9%) | +3.4145 (+37.4%) |
| banking_crisis | 4.5426 | +2.6838 (+144.4%) | +3.1882 (+235.4%) |
| stagflation | 3.8543 | +1.3922 (+56.5%) | +3.5035 (+998.7%) |
| energy_insecurity | 8.5155 | +1.7682 (+26.2%) | +2.1375 (+33.5%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 3.8602 | +1.4842 (+62.5%) | +2.3016 (+147.7%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.4232 | +1.0434 (+30.9%) | +1.7106 (+63.1%) |
| recession | 3.8400 | +1.5943 (+71.0%) | +0.7687 (+25.0%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
172 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-11 10:00 UTC