Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-02 (built 22:15 UTC), 326 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.93
- euphoria z=+1.22
- fear z=-1.98
- frustration z=-0.21
- greed z=+0.75
- hope z=+0.45
- optimism z=-1.31
- panic z=-0.22
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.46
2. energy_insecurity fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.65
- euphoria z=+1.01
- fear z=-1.68
- frustration z=+0.35
- greed z=-0.08
- hope z=+1.07
- optimism z=-0.93
- panic z=-0.55
- skepticism z=-0.98
- uncertainty z=-1.16
3. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=+0.70
- euphoria z=-0.23
- fear z=-1.05
- frustration z=-0.27
- greed z=+0.97
- hope z=+0.68
- optimism z=+0.30
- panic z=+0.63
- skepticism z=+0.41
- uncertainty z=-1.03
4. AI_boom
- confidence z=+0.12
- euphoria z=-0.99
- fear z=-0.62
- frustration z=-0.11
- greed z=+0.30
- hope z=+0.43
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=+0.61
- skepticism z=+1.33
- uncertainty z=-0.80
5. crypto_adoption greed ↑ hope ↑
- confidence z=+0.92
- euphoria z=-0.89
- fear z=-0.29
- frustration z=+1.02
- greed z=+2.06
- hope z=+1.60
- optimism z=-0.11
- panic z=+0.50
- skepticism z=+0.05
- uncertainty z=+0.14
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism ↑ +5.10σ DoD
+5.10σ vs own history — +2558% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+1.41
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=+1.41
eu_us_relations ↑ +5.09σ DoD
+5.09σ vs own history — +1798% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.41
- uncertainty z=+1.41
commodities_supercycle ↑ +1.83σ DoD
+1.83σ vs own history — +81% change, now at 83th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.20
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.62
- frustration z=+0.91
- greed z=+2.95
- hope z=+0.47
- optimism z=-0.18
- panic z=-1.85
- skepticism z=-1.36
- uncertainty z=+0.47
↓ Top Decreases
stagflation ↓ -0.69σ DoD
-0.69σ vs own history — -32% change, now at 24th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.56
- frustration z=-0.20
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.18
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.98
- skepticism z=-0.48
- uncertainty z=+1.05
housing_bubble ↓ -0.61σ DoD
-0.61σ vs own history — -34% change, now at 37th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.04
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.66
- optimism z=-0.62
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.14
- uncertainty z=+0.29
recession ↓ -0.47σ DoD
-0.47σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 52th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.53
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.05
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=-0.50
- hope z=+0.70
- optimism z=+0.53
- panic z=-2.19
- skepticism z=-0.59
- uncertainty z=+0.03
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
trade_protectionism: +4.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.47σ vs own history — +166111498794% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +4.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.47σ vs own history — +94883515440% change over the last 3 days.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
dollar_strength: +0.67σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.67σ vs own history — +243% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.13
- frustration z=-1.50
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.81
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=-0.80
↓ Top Decreases
housing_bubble: -1.61σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.61σ vs own history — -61% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.48
- fear z=-1.18
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-3.11
- optimism z=+0.06
- panic z=+1.79
- skepticism z=-0.84
- uncertainty z=-0.68
banking_crisis: -1.03σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.03σ vs own history — -12% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.05
- fear z=+0.65
- frustration z=-1.20
- greed z=-1.33
- hope z=+0.50
- optimism z=+1.60
- panic z=-0.15
- skepticism z=-0.44
- uncertainty z=+0.30
stagflation: -0.97σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.97σ vs own history — -51% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-3.02
- frustration z=-1.94
- greed z=+1.81
- hope z=-2.63
- optimism z=-1.94
- panic z=+1.87
- skepticism z=-0.32
- uncertainty z=+0.59
Narratives to Look Out For
trade_protectionismp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.71
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=+0.71
eu_us_relationsp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=+0.71
geopolitical_riskp97
Attention is at the 97th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.93
- euphoria z=+1.22
- fear z=-1.98
- frustration z=-0.21
- greed z=+0.75
- hope z=+0.45
- optimism z=-1.31
- panic z=-0.22
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-0.46
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.65 — Skepticism z-score: -0.19.
Fear most concentrated in ex_usa_trade
Average fear score for ex_usa_trade: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.60), energy_insecurity (0.63), technology_paradigm_shift (0.47).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.024 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
recession (-2.7%), inflation (-2.7%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch trade_protectionism: WoW rising (+166111498794%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.65, regime_score=-1.76
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.1963 | +2.6779 | +1.5337 | 97th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.8525 | +1.8638 | +0.8609 | 91th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.6251 | +1.1800 | +0.4743 | 90th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 5.3719 | +1.4956 | +1.2113 | 92th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.0459 | +2.2598 | -0.2234 | 83th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.4096 | +0.2063 | -0.0488 | 81th | 6 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.4301 | +0.0520 | -0.0668 | 64th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.9515 | -0.3763 | -0.8507 | 52th | 10 | |
| inflation | 2.4378 | -0.0577 | -1.0912 | 45th | 9 | |
| trade_protectionism | 1.6611 | +1.5986 | +1.6611 | 100th | 5 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-02
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.1827 | +2.6644 (+25.3%) | +1.5201 (+13.0%) |
| trade_protectionism | 1.6594 | +1.5969 (+2555.1%) | +1.6594 (+165940710683.8%) |
| AI_boom | 5.3664 | +1.4900 (+38.4%) | +1.2058 (+29.0%) |
| energy_insecurity | 8.8434 | +1.8547 (+26.5%) | +0.8518 (+10.7%) |
| eu_us_relations | 0.9479 | +0.8979 (+1795.7%) | +0.9479 (+94785960626.6%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 5.0407 | +2.2546 (+80.9%) | -0.2286 (-4.3%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.6193 | +1.1742 (+26.4%) | +0.4685 (+9.1%) |
| energy_transition | 1.0385 | +0.2254 (+27.7%) | +0.6016 (+137.7%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.6358 | +0.0613 (+10.7%) | +0.4502 (+242.6%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 0.6417 | +0.2545 (+65.7%) | +0.0851 (+15.3%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
138 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-02 22:00 UTC