Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-03 (built 04:15 UTC), 187 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk fear ↓ frustration ↓
- confidence z=-0.16
- euphoria z=+1.29
- fear z=-2.63
- frustration z=-1.64
- greed z=+1.60
- hope z=-0.96
- optimism z=+0.35
- panic z=-0.72
- skepticism z=+0.17
- uncertainty z=-0.84
2. energy_insecurity uncertainty ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.42
- euphoria z=+0.94
- fear z=-1.55
- frustration z=-1.41
- greed z=+0.38
- hope z=-0.30
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=-1.06
- skepticism z=-0.30
- uncertainty z=-1.75
3. commodities_supercycle fear ↓
- confidence z=+0.15
- euphoria z=+0.89
- fear z=-1.87
- frustration z=-1.19
- greed z=+1.10
- hope z=-1.19
- optimism z=-0.45
- panic z=-1.40
- skepticism z=+0.09
- uncertainty z=-1.34
4. technology_paradigm_shift greed ↓
- confidence z=-0.59
- euphoria z=-0.45
- fear z=-0.83
- frustration z=-0.52
- greed z=-1.65
- hope z=+0.11
- optimism z=+0.04
- panic z=+0.63
- skepticism z=+0.49
- uncertainty z=-1.16
5. AI_boom greed ↓ skepticism ↑
- confidence z=-1.40
- euphoria z=-0.44
- fear z=+0.69
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=-1.85
- hope z=-0.31
- optimism z=-0.55
- panic z=-0.05
- skepticism z=+1.60
- uncertainty z=-1.45
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
eu_us_relations ↑ +4.99σ DoD
+4.99σ vs own history — +449% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
- fear z=-1.41
- frustration z=-1.41
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.16
- uncertainty z=+0.20
trade_protectionism ↑ +4.92σ DoD
+4.92σ vs own history — +353% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.41
- frustration z=-1.41
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+1.00
- skepticism z=-0.82
- uncertainty z=-0.24
banking_crisis ↑ +4.84σ DoD
+4.84σ vs own history — +355% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.15
- fear z=-0.28
- frustration z=-0.72
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.12
- optimism z=-0.03
- panic z=-0.77
- skepticism z=+1.30
- uncertainty z=+0.04
↓ Top Decreases
housing_bubble: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
eu_us_relations: +4.40σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.40σ vs own history — +483495095664% change over the last 3 days.
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
trade_protectionism: +4.37σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.37σ vs own history — +697935806532% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
dollar_strength: +3.82σ WoW — trend accelerating
+3.82σ vs own history — +791% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.47
- fear z=-0.71
- frustration z=+0.18
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-2.09
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=-3.02
- skepticism z=+0.48
- uncertainty z=+1.81
↓ Top Decreases
housing_bubble: -1.99σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.99σ vs own history — -100% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.49
- fear z=-1.63
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-3.36
- optimism z=-2.03
- panic z=+2.06
- skepticism z=-0.77
- uncertainty z=+0.11
stagflation: -0.46σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.46σ vs own history — -10% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.46
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.75
- frustration z=-2.04
- greed z=+1.26
- hope z=-1.93
- optimism z=-1.21
- panic z=-2.11
- skepticism z=+1.82
- uncertainty z=-0.02
Narratives to Look Out For
geopolitical_riskp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.16
- euphoria z=+1.29
- fear z=-2.63
- frustration z=-1.64
- greed z=+1.60
- hope z=-0.96
- optimism z=+0.35
- panic z=-0.72
- skepticism z=+0.17
- uncertainty z=-0.84
energy_insecurityp100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.42
- euphoria z=+0.94
- fear z=-1.55
- frustration z=-1.41
- greed z=+0.38
- hope z=-0.30
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=-1.06
- skepticism z=-0.30
- uncertainty z=-1.75
commodities_supercyclep100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.15
- euphoria z=+0.89
- fear z=-1.87
- frustration z=-1.19
- greed z=+1.10
- hope z=-1.19
- optimism z=-0.45
- panic z=-1.40
- skepticism z=+0.09
- uncertainty z=-1.34
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.44 — Skepticism z-score: +0.46.
Fear most concentrated in banking_crisis
Average fear score for banking_crisis: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.61), energy_insecurity (0.69), commodities_supercycle (0.65).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.029 vs 7-day baseline 0.009.
Narratives driving novelty shift
trade_protectionism (+3.9%), recession (-2.9%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch eu_us_relations: WoW rising (+483495095664%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.44, regime_score=+1.99
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 34.8896 | +22.6507 | +22.4515 | 100th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 20.8268 | +12.6166 | +13.1370 | 100th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 13.3461 | +8.6663 | +9.1492 | 100th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 11.7487 | +6.7665 | +6.7605 | 100th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 11.5905 | +6.3735 | +6.4883 | 100th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 10.7184 | +6.6287 | +7.0398 | 100th | 5 | |
| sector_rotation | 7.3518 | +4.1705 | +2.9421 | 100th | 7 | |
| inflation | 7.1243 | +4.8633 | +3.2591 | 100th | 9 | |
| recession | 7.0634 | +4.3260 | +1.3596 | 100th | 8 | |
| trade_protectionism | 6.9794 | +5.4388 | +6.9794 | 100th | 6 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-03
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 34.7061 | +22.4672 (+183.6%) | +22.2681 (+179.0%) |
| energy_insecurity | 20.7173 | +12.5071 (+152.3%) | +13.0275 (+169.4%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 13.2759 | +8.5961 (+183.7%) | +9.0790 (+216.3%) |
| crypto_adoption | 10.6620 | +6.5724 (+160.7%) | +6.9835 (+189.8%) |
| AI_boom | 11.6869 | +6.7048 (+134.6%) | +6.6987 (+134.3%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 11.5295 | +6.3125 (+121.0%) | +6.4274 (+126.0%) |
| trade_protectionism | 6.9427 | +5.4020 (+350.6%) | +6.9427 (+694265576939.7%) |
| banking_crisis | 6.4832 | +5.0495 (+352.2%) | +4.5594 (+237.0%) |
| eu_us_relations | 4.8095 | +3.9295 (+446.5%) | +4.8095 (+480952543768.0%) |
| inflation | 7.0868 | +4.8259 (+213.4%) | +3.2216 (+83.3%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
139 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-03 04:00 UTC