Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-30 (built 16:15 UTC), 270 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk greed ↑
- confidence z=+0.50
- euphoria z=+0.89
- fear z=-0.26
- frustration z=-0.57
- greed z=+1.68
- hope z=+0.51
- optimism z=+0.49
- panic z=+0.57
- skepticism z=+0.98
- uncertainty z=+0.06
2. energy_insecurity greed ↑
- confidence z=-0.01
- euphoria z=+0.57
- fear z=+0.13
- frustration z=-1.15
- greed z=+1.83
- hope z=+0.97
- optimism z=+0.77
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=+0.27
- uncertainty z=-0.85
3. commodities_supercycle
- confidence z=-1.07
- euphoria z=+1.33
- fear z=+1.20
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=-0.92
- hope z=-0.17
- optimism z=+1.08
- panic z=+0.20
- skepticism z=-0.04
- uncertainty z=-1.00
4. recession euphoria ↓
- confidence z=+1.05
- euphoria z=-1.69
- fear z=-0.75
- frustration z=-0.03
- greed z=-0.78
- hope z=+1.28
- optimism z=+0.66
- panic z=+0.18
- skepticism z=+0.18
- uncertainty z=+0.11
5. inflation
- confidence z=+1.25
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-0.84
- frustration z=+0.20
- greed z=-0.87
- hope z=+1.13
- optimism z=+1.43
- panic z=+0.83
- skepticism z=-0.23
- uncertainty z=-1.12
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
ex_usa_trade ↑ +1.03σ DoD
+1.03σ vs own history — +59% change, now at 88th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+2.86
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.26
- frustration z=+0.06
- greed z=-0.26
- hope z=+1.10
- optimism z=+3.22
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=+0.45
deglobalisation ↑ +0.24σ DoD
+0.24σ vs own history — +42% change, now at 52th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.25
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.72
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.73
- uncertainty z=-0.32
interest_rate_cut: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
recession ↓ -2.71σ DoD
-2.71σ vs own history — -50% change, now at 48th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.76
- euphoria z=-2.83
- fear z=-0.87
- frustration z=-0.04
- greed z=-0.87
- hope z=-0.06
- optimism z=-0.10
- panic z=-0.86
- skepticism z=-0.33
- uncertainty z=-0.53
sector_rotation ↓ -2.07σ DoD
-2.07σ vs own history — -31% change, now at 55th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.60
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.18
- frustration z=-0.68
- greed z=+0.08
- hope z=+0.79
- optimism z=+1.84
- panic z=-1.52
- skepticism z=-1.37
- uncertainty z=-0.47
inflation ↓ -2.01σ DoD
-2.01σ vs own history — -46% change, now at 52th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.64
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.14
- frustration z=+0.34
- greed z=-1.72
- hope z=+0.50
- optimism z=+0.55
- panic z=-0.31
- skepticism z=-0.81
- uncertainty z=-1.17
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
interest_rate_cut: +0.63σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.63σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
crypto_regulation: +0.60σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.60σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_hike: +0.60σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.60σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -2.03σ WoW — trend accelerating
-2.03σ vs own history — -44% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.32
- frustration z=-0.20
- greed z=+2.41
- hope z=-1.89
- optimism z=+0.72
- panic z=+0.37
- skepticism z=+2.20
- uncertainty z=+1.51
commodities_supercycle: -1.74σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.74σ vs own history — -37% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.01
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.38
- frustration z=-2.10
- greed z=-0.93
- hope z=-1.73
- optimism z=+0.76
- panic z=-0.26
- skepticism z=-0.34
- uncertainty z=-0.02
energy_insecurity: -1.69σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.69σ vs own history — -36% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.11
- euphoria z=+0.17
- fear z=+0.30
- frustration z=-1.91
- greed z=+1.36
- hope z=-0.33
- optimism z=+0.24
- panic z=+0.38
- skepticism z=+0.61
- uncertainty z=-0.19
Narratives to Look Out For
ex_usa_tradep88
Attention is at the 88th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.09
- euphoria z=+0.88
- fear z=-0.19
- frustration z=+0.53
- greed z=+0.05
- hope z=+0.13
- optimism z=+1.73
- panic z=-1.50
- skepticism z=-0.08
- uncertainty z=-0.76
fed_pivotp86
Attention is at the 86th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.35
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.30
- frustration z=+0.86
- greed z=-0.61
- hope z=+0.01
- optimism z=-0.41
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=-1.06
- uncertainty z=+0.77
interest_rate_insecurityp81
Attention is at the 81th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.35
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-1.91
- frustration z=+0.41
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+1.80
- optimism z=+0.37
- panic z=+1.10
- skepticism z=-0.00
- uncertainty z=-0.68
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: +0.45 — Skepticism z-score: -0.24.
Fear most concentrated in energy_transition
Average fear score for energy_transition: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.64), energy_insecurity (0.68), commodities_supercycle (0.73).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.006 vs 7-day baseline 0.009.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p55 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch interest_rate_cut: WoW rising (+0%)
If trend continues → bond longs, rate-sensitive sectors.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.45, regime_score=+0.37
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.1490 | -0.3437 | -5.4586 | 55th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.4237 | -0.8001 | -3.6244 | 55th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.8189 | -0.8388 | -2.2520 | 55th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.1665 | -0.7840 | -1.3877 | 52th | 4 | |
| AI_boom | 3.1534 | -0.7314 | -1.6823 | 48th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.1377 | -1.3775 | -0.9344 | 55th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.0819 | -0.9919 | -1.2669 | 24th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.0741 | -2.6334 | -0.5066 | 52th | 9 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.7371 | -0.4449 | +0.9209 | 81th | 10 | |
| recession | 2.7230 | -2.7495 | -1.0050 | 48th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-30
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| ex_usa_trade | 1.1786 | +0.4376 (+59.1%) | +0.3960 (+50.6%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.7371 | -0.4449 (-14.0%) | +0.9209 (+50.7%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.2791 | -0.0889 (-6.5%) | +0.5893 (+85.4%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.4304 | +0.1282 (+42.4%) | +0.0742 (+20.8%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0500 | -0.0500 (-50.0%) | -0.1076 (-68.3%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
125 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-30 16:00 UTC