Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-30 (built 04:15 UTC), 187 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=+0.38
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-0.18
- frustration z=-0.23
- greed z=+0.56
- hope z=+0.06
- optimism z=+0.12
- panic z=+0.77
- skepticism z=+1.49
- uncertainty z=+0.05
2. energy_insecurity
- confidence z=-0.99
- euphoria z=+0.90
- fear z=+0.11
- frustration z=-0.94
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+0.58
- optimism z=+0.67
- panic z=+1.00
- skepticism z=+0.22
- uncertainty z=-0.10
3. recession
- confidence z=+0.84
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-0.87
- frustration z=+0.21
- greed z=-0.63
- hope z=+1.32
- optimism z=+0.32
- panic z=+0.35
- skepticism z=+0.10
- uncertainty z=+0.40
4. inflation optimism ↑
- confidence z=+0.28
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-1.19
- frustration z=-0.14
- greed z=-0.87
- hope z=+1.27
- optimism z=+1.56
- panic z=+0.93
- skepticism z=+0.34
- uncertainty z=-0.51
5. commodities_supercycle confidence ↓
- confidence z=-1.64
- euphoria z=+1.33
- fear z=-0.02
- frustration z=-0.35
- greed z=-0.92
- hope z=-0.79
- optimism z=+0.36
- panic z=+0.88
- skepticism z=-0.52
- uncertainty z=-0.75
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
earnings_miss: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_hike: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_cut: thin breadth
Low attention (0.0000) and limited breadth (0 subreddits); signal reliability is low.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -3.24σ DoD
-3.24σ vs own history — -59% change, now at 36th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.38
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.33
- frustration z=-0.78
- greed z=-0.58
- hope z=-0.02
- optimism z=-1.00
- panic z=-1.17
- skepticism z=-1.07
- uncertainty z=-0.05
recession ↓ -3.07σ DoD
-3.07σ vs own history — -60% change, now at 45th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.60
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.06
- frustration z=+0.17
- greed z=-0.71
- hope z=+0.07
- optimism z=-0.31
- panic z=-0.89
- skepticism z=-0.44
- uncertainty z=-0.22
banking_crisis ↓ -2.55σ DoD
-2.55σ vs own history — -47% change, now at 55th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.85
- frustration z=-0.62
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.56
- optimism z=-0.00
- panic z=-0.95
- skepticism z=+0.41
- uncertainty z=-0.29
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
earnings_miss: +0.67σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.67σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_cut: +0.66σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.66σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
interest_rate_hike: +0.65σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.65σ vs own history — +0% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament: -2.46σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.46σ vs own history — -65% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.91
- frustration z=-0.20
- greed z=+2.41
- hope z=-1.89
- optimism z=+0.72
- panic z=+0.37
- skepticism z=+2.28
- uncertainty z=+2.02
commodities_supercycle: -2.33σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.33σ vs own history — -64% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.70
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.93
- frustration z=-1.99
- greed z=-0.93
- hope z=-2.36
- optimism z=-0.04
- panic z=+0.48
- skepticism z=-0.84
- uncertainty z=+0.26
energy_insecurity: -2.26σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.26σ vs own history — -63% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.01
- euphoria z=+0.46
- fear z=+0.28
- frustration z=-1.70
- greed z=-0.67
- hope z=-0.78
- optimism z=+0.12
- panic z=+0.88
- skepticism z=+0.55
- uncertainty z=+0.61
Narratives to Look Out For
fed_pivotp83
Attention is at the 83th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.45
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.33
- frustration z=+0.85
- greed z=-1.73
- hope z=-0.06
- optimism z=-0.47
- panic z=-0.04
- skepticism z=-0.92
- uncertainty z=+0.90
banking_crisisp55
Attention is at the 55th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-2.14
- fear z=-0.27
- frustration z=-1.59
- greed z=-0.85
- hope z=-1.86
- optimism z=-1.78
- panic z=-0.69
- skepticism z=+0.97
- uncertainty z=+0.47
interest_rate_insecurityp52
Attention is at the 52th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.38
- euphoria z=+0.82
- fear z=-1.78
- frustration z=-0.73
- greed z=-0.08
- hope z=+1.43
- optimism z=+0.03
- panic z=+0.85
- skepticism z=-0.24
- uncertainty z=-0.02
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: +0.38 — Skepticism z-score: -0.52.
Fear most concentrated in energy_transition
Average fear score for energy_transition: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.65), energy_insecurity (0.67), recession (0.60).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.009.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p31 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch earnings_miss: WoW rising (+0%)
If trend continues → reduce equity beta, raise cash.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.38, regime_score=+0.75
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 5.9626 | -4.5301 | -9.6450 | 31th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 3.7385 | -3.4853 | -6.3095 | 35th | 8 | |
| inflation | 2.4189 | -3.2887 | -1.1619 | 45th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.1927 | -3.2798 | -1.5354 | 45th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 2.1552 | -2.5025 | -3.9157 | 35th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 1.9949 | -2.0788 | -2.3538 | 24th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 1.9210 | -1.9638 | -2.9146 | 34th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 1.8320 | -2.6832 | -2.2401 | 36th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.7771 | -1.4049 | -0.0391 | 52th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 1.5475 | -2.4029 | -3.0067 | 34th | 3 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-30
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| fed_pivot | 1.0225 | -0.3455 (-25.3%) | +0.3327 (+48.2%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| dollar_weakness | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.0500 | -0.0500 (-50.0%) | -0.1076 (-68.3%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.0908 | -0.3459 (-79.2%) | -0.2044 (-69.2%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.0706 | -0.2316 (-76.6%) | -0.2856 (-80.2%) |
| ex_usa_trade | 0.4039 | -0.3371 (-45.5%) | -0.3787 (-48.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
123 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-30 04:00 UTC