📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-12 05:50 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-12 (built 05:50 UTC), 186 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   optimism    uncertainty 
  •  confidence z=-0.18
  •  euphoria z=+0.26
  •  fear z=-1.70
  •  frustration z=-0.79
  •  greed z=-0.45
  •  hope z=-0.51
  •  optimism z=-2.32
  •  panic z=+1.26
  •  skepticism z=-1.17
  •  uncertainty z=-1.80
2. energy_insecurity   hope    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-2.04
  •  euphoria z=+1.06
  •  fear z=-1.61
  •  frustration z=-1.44
  •  greed z=-0.64
  •  hope z=-2.70
  •  optimism z=-2.21
  •  panic z=+1.17
  •  skepticism z=-1.37
  •  uncertainty z=-1.30
3. technology_paradigm_shift   euphoria    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-0.26
  •  euphoria z=+1.88
  •  fear z=-1.52
  •  frustration z=-0.24
  •  greed z=-0.21
  •  hope z=-0.21
  •  optimism z=-1.68
  •  panic z=+0.81
  •  skepticism z=+0.96
  •  uncertainty z=-0.36
4. AI_boom   euphoria    fear 
  •  confidence z=-0.51
  •  euphoria z=+2.00
  •  fear z=-1.91
  •  frustration z=-0.97
  •  greed z=-0.44
  •  hope z=-0.41
  •  optimism z=-1.68
  •  panic z=+1.04
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=-0.22
5. inflation   confidence    uncertainty 
  •  confidence z=-2.05
  •  euphoria z=+1.08
  •  fear z=-0.11
  •  frustration z=-1.16
  •  greed z=+1.11
  •  hope z=-1.32
  •  optimism z=-1.22
  •  panic z=+1.12
  •  skepticism z=-0.49
  •  uncertainty z=-1.60

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

housing_bubble +0.11σ DoD
+0.11σ vs own history — +26% change, now at 38th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00

↓ Top Decreases

sector_rotation -0.76σ DoD
-0.76σ vs own history — -7% change, now at 10th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.12
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.08
  •  frustration z=+0.20
  •  greed z=-0.04
  •  hope z=-0.03
  •  optimism z=-0.14
  •  panic z=+0.04
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=-0.16
crypto_adoption -0.69σ DoD
-0.69σ vs own history — -7% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.19
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.02
  •  frustration z=+0.21
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.42
  •  optimism z=+0.07
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.10
  •  uncertainty z=-0.27
geopolitical_risk -0.68σ DoD
-0.68σ vs own history — -6% change, now at 10th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.02
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.10
  •  frustration z=-0.08
  •  greed z=-0.06
  •  hope z=+0.17
  •  optimism z=+0.01
  •  panic z=+0.13
  •  skepticism z=-0.16
  •  uncertainty z=-0.08

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

stagflation: +1.21σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.21σ vs own history — +279% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.65
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.40
  •  frustration z=-0.49
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+2.04
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+3.14
  •  skepticism z=+0.18
  •  uncertainty z=-1.68
banking_crisis: +0.75σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.75σ vs own history — +56% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.89
  •  fear z=-0.84
  •  frustration z=+0.07
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.85
  •  optimism z=-1.24
  •  panic z=+3.92
  •  skepticism z=-0.81
  •  uncertainty z=-1.20
technology_paradigm_shift: +0.42σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.42σ vs own history — +49% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.20
  •  euphoria z=+1.56
  •  fear z=+0.14
  •  frustration z=-2.07
  •  greed z=+0.17
  •  hope z=+0.44
  •  optimism z=-1.69
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.10
  •  uncertainty z=+1.79

↓ Top Decreases

commodities_supercycle: -0.82σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.82σ vs own history — -13% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-2.40
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.71
  •  frustration z=-1.59
  •  greed z=+0.76
  •  hope z=+0.37
  •  optimism z=-2.23
  •  panic z=+1.17
  •  skepticism z=-0.75
  •  uncertainty z=-0.23
housing_bubble: -0.76σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.76σ vs own history — -71% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.17
  •  frustration z=-0.15
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.50
  •  uncertainty z=+0.15
energy_insecurity: -0.67σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.67σ vs own history — -4% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-2.31
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.80
  •  frustration z=-0.52
  •  greed z=+0.36
  •  hope z=-2.84
  •  optimism z=-2.61
  •  panic z=+0.77
  •  skepticism z=+0.01
  •  uncertainty z=-0.20

Narratives to Look Out For

banking_crisisp96

Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-1.27
  •  fear z=-1.45
  •  frustration z=-0.89
  •  greed z=-1.29
  •  hope z=+0.22
  •  optimism z=-1.11
  •  panic z=+1.23
  •  skepticism z=-0.61
  •  uncertainty z=-1.42
deglobalisationp93

Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.95
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.68
  •  frustration z=-0.22
  •  greed z=+0.59
  •  hope z=+0.53
  •  optimism z=+0.04
  •  panic z=+0.76
  •  skepticism z=+1.12
  •  uncertainty z=-2.68
stagflationp89

Attention is at the 89th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.91
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.20
  •  frustration z=-1.19
  •  greed z=-0.32
  •  hope z=+1.35
  •  optimism z=+0.53
  •  panic z=+0.80
  •  skepticism z=-1.22
  •  uncertainty z=-1.73

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.36 — Skepticism z-score: +0.42.
Fear most concentrated in stagflation
Average fear score for stagflation: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.64), energy_insecurity (0.73), technology_paradigm_shift (0.30).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.012 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-3.4%), stagflation (+2.6%).

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p24 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+279%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-1.36, regime_score=-0.45

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 260dBreadth
geopolitical_risk9.1739-0.5658+0.080210th10
energy_insecurity6.2584-0.3690-0.230410th10
technology_paradigm_shift5.1362-0.2242+1.696214th10
AI_boom4.8013-0.2227+1.530121th9
inflation4.0540-0.2000+1.284531th9
commodities_supercycle3.4997-0.2157-0.52764th10
crypto_adoption3.1395-0.2252-0.04914th6
sector_rotation2.5761-0.1936-0.309310th8
banking_crisis2.1593-0.0619+0.777074th9
recession2.0751-0.0975-0.574910th8

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-12

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
geopolitical_risk20.7651+12.3717 (+147.4%)+12.6407 (+155.6%)
technology_paradigm_shift14.3464+9.3382 (+186.5%)+11.3571 (+379.9%)
AI_boom13.0270+8.1568 (+167.5%)+10.0648 (+339.8%)
energy_insecurity14.6642+9.0543 (+161.4%)+8.4074 (+134.4%)
inflation10.6473+6.5707 (+161.2%)+7.8201 (+276.6%)
stagflation6.7035+4.7312 (+239.9%)+6.2800 (+1483.0%)
banking_crisis6.9815+4.0703 (+139.8%)+5.5586 (+390.6%)
commodities_supercycle7.9250+4.8194 (+155.2%)+3.9556 (+99.7%)
defense_rearmament5.0361+3.3412 (+197.1%)+3.7866 (+303.1%)
crypto_adoption6.1780+3.2611 (+111.8%)+3.3964 (+122.1%)

SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores

Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-12

NarrativeStateR₀c (contagion)r (recovery)I (infected)S (susceptible)R (recovered)
stagflationacceleration1.5280.6390.3680.6750.2570.068
banking_crisisexhaustion1.4120.6430.4060.6030.2160.181
inflationexhaustion1.1210.5040.3990.3320.5680.100
interest_rate_insecuritycrowding1.1060.4930.3960.2720.6200.109
AI_boomexhaustion1.0090.4960.4410.2980.6130.089
commodities_supercycleexhaustion0.9720.4210.3830.1880.7360.075
technology_paradigm_shiftexhaustion0.9500.4990.4750.2250.6850.090
defense_rearmamentexhaustion0.9470.4480.4230.4400.5160.044
geopolitical_riskexhaustion0.9370.4280.4070.2000.7200.080
energy_insecurityexhaustion0.9200.4040.3890.1810.7460.073
recessionexhaustion0.8290.4370.4780.2540.6950.051
fed_pivotexhaustion0.8150.3790.4150.2440.7310.024
deglobalisationexhaustion0.7780.4510.5290.4140.5860.000
energy_transitionexhaustion0.7630.3520.4110.3530.6470.000
sector_rotationexhaustion0.7140.3980.5080.2170.7400.043
ex_usa_tradeexhaustion0.6920.3830.5030.2730.7270.000
demographic_shiftexhaustion0.6850.4420.5960.5340.4660.000
crypto_adoptionexhaustion0.6280.3520.5110.1990.8010.000
housing_bubbleexhaustion0.5860.3650.5730.3730.6270.000
dollar_strengthexhaustion0.5740.3200.5080.3290.6710.000

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)

Fetch Runs

175 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-12 04:00 UTC