Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-23 (built 17:15 UTC), 292 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by defense_rearmament, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. defense_rearmament ⚠️ hope z=+1.73 ⚠️ skepticism z=-1.56
- confidence z=+0.45
- euphoria z=+0.87
- fear z=+0.52
- frustration z=+1.31
- greed z=-0.63
- hope z=+1.73
- optimism z=+0.84
- panic z=+0.76
- skepticism z=-1.56
- uncertainty z=+0.33
2. energy_insecurity ⚠️ optimism z=+1.51
- confidence z=-0.75
- euphoria z=+0.48
- fear z=-0.34
- frustration z=+0.66
- greed z=+0.13
- hope z=+1.16
- optimism z=+1.51
- panic z=+0.49
- skepticism z=-0.27
- uncertainty z=-1.43
3. commodities_supercycle ⚠️ frustration z=+1.87 ⚠️ uncertainty z=-1.57
- confidence z=-1.29
- euphoria z=+0.75
- fear z=+1.32
- frustration z=+1.87
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=+1.27
- optimism z=+1.27
- panic z=+1.07
- skepticism z=+0.60
- uncertainty z=-1.57
4. geopolitical_risk
- confidence z=-0.11
- euphoria z=+0.73
- fear z=+1.21
- frustration z=+1.02
- greed z=+0.47
- hope z=+0.99
- optimism z=+1.03
- panic z=+0.66
- skepticism z=+0.99
- uncertainty z=+0.89
5. crypto_adoption ⚠️ fear z=+2.66
- confidence z=+0.98
- euphoria z=-0.18
- fear z=+2.66
- frustration z=+0.41
- greed z=-0.63
- hope z=-0.01
- optimism z=-0.12
- panic z=+0.60
- skepticism z=-0.86
- uncertainty z=+0.16
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk up: +23%
+2.45 DoD change — now at 88th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.09
- euphoria z=-0.44
- fear z=+0.45
- frustration z=+1.49
- greed z=-1.54
- hope z=+2.02
- optimism z=+0.53
- panic z=+0.13
- skepticism z=+1.51
- uncertainty z=+0.21
energy_insecurity up: +16%
+1.19 DoD change — now at 92th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.64
- euphoria z=-0.33
- fear z=-0.78
- frustration z=+1.11
- greed z=-0.33
- hope z=+1.23
- optimism z=+1.15
- panic z=-0.20
- skepticism z=+0.20
- uncertainty z=-0.91
technology_paradigm_shift down: -18%
-0.80 DoD change — now at 40th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.05
- euphoria z=-0.47
- fear z=+0.30
- frustration z=-0.96
- greed z=-2.00
- hope z=+0.38
- optimism z=+0.39
- panic z=+0.51
- skepticism z=+0.01
- uncertainty z=-0.59
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: +869% WoW — trend decelerating
+11.72 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.84
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.00
- frustration z=+2.72
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.53
- skepticism z=-1.18
- uncertainty z=-0.06
energy_insecurity: +1002% WoW — trend decelerating
+7.85 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.58
- frustration z=+2.13
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.51
- uncertainty z=-0.66
commodities_supercycle: +1378% WoW — trend accelerating
+4.56 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.84
- frustration z=+2.87
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-1.13
- uncertainty z=-2.51
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear elevated, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: +1.64 — Skepticism z-score: -0.21.
Fear most concentrated in technology_paradigm_shift
Average fear score for technology_paradigm_shift: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
defense_rearmament (0.76), energy_insecurity (0.71), commodities_supercycle (0.74).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.013 vs 7-day baseline 0.047.
Watchlist
Watch defense_rearmament: if it remains above p90 for 3 days
Action: review positioning.
Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+869%)
If trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+1.64, regime_score=+2.62
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.0694 | +2.4521 | +11.7212 | 88th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 8.6338 | +1.1878 | +7.8504 | 92th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.8924 | +0.7260 | +4.5615 | 92th | 8 | |
| AI_boom | 4.1374 | -0.7428 | +3.6174 | 58th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.7145 | +0.4355 | +3.6781 | 88th | 6 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.6532 | -0.7965 | +3.0365 | 40th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.5031 | -0.2919 | +3.2693 | 87th | 10 | |
| recession | 3.2809 | +0.2822 | +2.7737 | 69th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.2803 | -0.0326 | +2.8845 | 65th | 9 | |
| defense_rearmament | 1.9550 | +0.0489 | +1.5450 | 100th | 8 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 10,771 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 97 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 41 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 7,278 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 23,140 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 5,023 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
5,023 total posts | 3,563 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 798 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 719 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 684 |
| r/investing | 644 |
| r/economics | 598 |
| r/stocks | 568 |
| r/StockMarket | 401 |
| r/options | 338 |
| r/finance | 103 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 69 |
| r/TrueReddit | 66 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 35 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-23
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 13.0694 | +2.4521 (+23.1%) | +11.7212 (+869.4%) |
| energy_insecurity | 8.6338 | +1.1878 (+16.0%) | +7.8504 (+1002.2%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.8924 | +0.7260 (+17.4%) | +4.5615 (+1378.3%) |
| crypto_adoption | 3.7145 | +0.4355 (+13.3%) | +3.6781 (+10114.9%) |
| AI_boom | 4.1374 | -0.7428 (-15.2%) | +3.6174 (+695.7%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.5031 | -0.2919 (-7.7%) | +3.2693 (+1398.3%) |
| recession | 3.2809 | +0.2822 (+9.4%) | +2.7737 (+546.8%) |
| inflation | 3.2803 | -0.0326 (-1.0%) | +2.8845 (+728.9%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.6532 | -0.7965 (-17.9%) | +3.0365 (+492.4%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.9550 | +0.0489 (+2.6%) | +1.5450 (+376.8%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
97 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-23 17:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 41 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 10771 |
| narrative_scores | 7278 |
| fetch_runs | 97 |
| post_rankings | 23140 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 41 |