Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-20 (built 05:15 UTC), 189 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by fed_pivot, while AI_boom continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk down: -4.43 DoD (-39%), now at 61th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- energy_insecurity down: -3.77 DoD (-42%), now at 90th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- inflation down: -3.35 DoD (-54%), now at 61th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +5.22 WoW (+316%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- energy_insecurity: +4.17 WoW (+432%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- commodities_supercycle: +2.58 WoW (+532%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) fed_pivot (p91) 2) energy_insecurity (p90) 3) commodities_supercycle (p90) 4) interest_rate_insecurity (p82) 5) stagflation (p78)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.29), skepticism elevated (z=+1.55).
- Fear is most concentrated in inflation (avg fear 0.90).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): energy_insecurity (0.70), commodities_supercycle (0.60).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.021 vs 7d baseline 0.071).
Watchlist
- Watch fed_pivot: if it remains above p90 for 3 days → duration longs, growth equity bias.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+316%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.29, regime_score=+0.93
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 6.8666 | -4.4299 | +5.2167 | 61th | 9 | |
| energy_insecurity | 5.1364 | -3.7654 | +4.1714 | 90th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.1119 | -1.2931 | +2.3452 | 57th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.0657 | -2.9673 | +2.5807 | 90th | 9 | |
| inflation | 2.8406 | -3.3538 | +2.2706 | 61th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 2.7526 | -1.2754 | +2.1302 | 43th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.4465 | -2.6846 | +1.7380 | 52th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.0535 | -2.9396 | +1.7095 | 82th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 1.9784 | -1.4979 | +1.9339 | 48th | 6 | |
| banking_crisis | 1.3746 | -0.6590 | +0.6270 | 74th | 7 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 9,095 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 83 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 27 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 6,054 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 19,780 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,487 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,487 total posts | 3,027 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 718 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 640 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 615 |
| r/investing | 580 |
| r/economics | 540 |
| r/stocks | 504 |
| r/StockMarket | 366 |
| r/options | 308 |
| r/finance | 97 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 61 |
| r/TrueReddit | 34 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 24 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-20
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 6.8666 | -4.4299 (-39.2%) | +5.2167 (+316.2%) |
| energy_insecurity | 5.1364 | -3.7654 (-42.3%) | +4.1714 (+432.3%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.1119 | -1.2931 (-29.4%) | +2.3452 (+305.9%) |
| AI_boom | 2.7526 | -1.2754 (-31.7%) | +2.1302 (+342.2%) |
| crypto_adoption | 1.9784 | -1.4979 (-43.1%) | +1.9339 (+4351.3%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.0657 | -2.9673 (-49.2%) | +2.5807 (+532.1%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.3435 | +0.1440 (+72.2%) | +0.2192 (+176.4%) |
| banking_crisis | 1.3746 | -0.6590 (-32.4%) | +0.6270 (+83.9%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.3976 | -0.1419 (-26.3%) | +0.2076 (+109.3%) |
| inflation | 2.8406 | -3.3538 (-54.1%) | +2.2706 (+398.4%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
83 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-20 05:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 27 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 9095 |
| narrative_scores | 6054 |
| fetch_runs | 83 |
| post_rankings | 19780 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 27 |