📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-02 22:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-02 (built 22:15 UTC), 326 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.93
  •  euphoria z=+1.22
  •  fear z=-1.98
  •  frustration z=-0.21
  •  greed z=+0.75
  •  hope z=+0.45
  •  optimism z=-1.31
  •  panic z=-0.22
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=-0.46
2. energy_insecurity   fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.65
  •  euphoria z=+1.01
  •  fear z=-1.68
  •  frustration z=+0.35
  •  greed z=-0.08
  •  hope z=+1.07
  •  optimism z=-0.93
  •  panic z=-0.55
  •  skepticism z=-0.98
  •  uncertainty z=-1.16
3. technology_paradigm_shift 
  •  confidence z=+0.70
  •  euphoria z=-0.23
  •  fear z=-1.05
  •  frustration z=-0.27
  •  greed z=+0.97
  •  hope z=+0.68
  •  optimism z=+0.30
  •  panic z=+0.63
  •  skepticism z=+0.41
  •  uncertainty z=-1.03
4. AI_boom 
  •  confidence z=+0.12
  •  euphoria z=-0.99
  •  fear z=-0.62
  •  frustration z=-0.11
  •  greed z=+0.30
  •  hope z=+0.43
  •  optimism z=-0.14
  •  panic z=+0.61
  •  skepticism z=+1.33
  •  uncertainty z=-0.80
5. crypto_adoption   greed    hope 
  •  confidence z=+0.92
  •  euphoria z=-0.89
  •  fear z=-0.29
  •  frustration z=+1.02
  •  greed z=+2.06
  •  hope z=+1.60
  •  optimism z=-0.11
  •  panic z=+0.50
  •  skepticism z=+0.05
  •  uncertainty z=+0.14

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

trade_protectionism +5.10σ DoD
+5.10σ vs own history — +2558% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+1.41
  •  skepticism z=+1.41
  •  uncertainty z=+1.41
eu_us_relations +5.09σ DoD
+5.09σ vs own history — +1798% change, now at 100th percentile; breadth 5 subreddits.
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.41
  •  uncertainty z=+1.41
commodities_supercycle +1.83σ DoD
+1.83σ vs own history — +81% change, now at 83th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+2.20
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.62
  •  frustration z=+0.91
  •  greed z=+2.95
  •  hope z=+0.47
  •  optimism z=-0.18
  •  panic z=-1.85
  •  skepticism z=-1.36
  •  uncertainty z=+0.47

↓ Top Decreases

stagflation -0.69σ DoD
-0.69σ vs own history — -32% change, now at 24th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.56
  •  frustration z=-0.20
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.18
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.98
  •  skepticism z=-0.48
  •  uncertainty z=+1.05
housing_bubble -0.61σ DoD
-0.61σ vs own history — -34% change, now at 37th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+1.04
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.66
  •  optimism z=-0.62
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.14
  •  uncertainty z=+0.29
recession -0.47σ DoD
-0.47σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 52th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.53
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.05
  •  frustration z=-0.49
  •  greed z=-0.50
  •  hope z=+0.70
  •  optimism z=+0.53
  •  panic z=-2.19
  •  skepticism z=-0.59
  •  uncertainty z=+0.03

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

trade_protectionism: +4.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.47σ vs own history — +166111498794% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
eu_us_relations: +4.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
+4.47σ vs own history — +94883515440% change over the last 3 days.
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
dollar_strength: +0.67σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.67σ vs own history — +243% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.13
  •  frustration z=-1.50
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.81
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.50
  •  uncertainty z=-0.80

↓ Top Decreases

housing_bubble: -1.61σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.61σ vs own history — -61% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+1.48
  •  fear z=-1.18
  •  frustration z=-0.46
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-3.11
  •  optimism z=+0.06
  •  panic z=+1.79
  •  skepticism z=-0.84
  •  uncertainty z=-0.68
banking_crisis: -1.03σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.03σ vs own history — -12% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.05
  •  fear z=+0.65
  •  frustration z=-1.20
  •  greed z=-1.33
  •  hope z=+0.50
  •  optimism z=+1.60
  •  panic z=-0.15
  •  skepticism z=-0.44
  •  uncertainty z=+0.30
stagflation: -0.97σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.97σ vs own history — -51% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-3.02
  •  frustration z=-1.94
  •  greed z=+1.81
  •  hope z=-2.63
  •  optimism z=-1.94
  •  panic z=+1.87
  •  skepticism z=-0.32
  •  uncertainty z=+0.59

Narratives to Look Out For

trade_protectionismp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.71
  •  skepticism z=+0.71
  •  uncertainty z=+0.71
eu_us_relationsp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.71
  •  uncertainty z=+0.71
geopolitical_riskp97

Attention is at the 97th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.93
  •  euphoria z=+1.22
  •  fear z=-1.98
  •  frustration z=-0.21
  •  greed z=+0.75
  •  hope z=+0.45
  •  optimism z=-1.31
  •  panic z=-0.22
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=-0.46

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.65 — Skepticism z-score: -0.19.
Fear most concentrated in ex_usa_trade
Average fear score for ex_usa_trade: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.60), energy_insecurity (0.63), technology_paradigm_shift (0.47).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.024 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
recession (-2.7%), inflation (-2.7%).

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p90 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch trade_protectionism: WoW rising (+166111498794%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-1.65, regime_score=-1.76

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk13.1963+2.6779+1.533797th10
energy_insecurity8.8525+1.8638+0.860991th9
technology_paradigm_shift5.6251+1.1800+0.474390th10
AI_boom5.3719+1.4956+1.211392th9
commodities_supercycle5.0459+2.2598-0.223483th9
crypto_adoption4.4096+0.2063-0.048881th6
sector_rotation3.4301+0.0520-0.066864th9
recession2.9515-0.3763-0.850752th10
inflation2.4378-0.0577-1.091245th9
trade_protectionism1.6611+1.5986+1.6611100th5

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-02

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
geopolitical_risk13.1827+2.6644 (+25.3%)+1.5201 (+13.0%)
trade_protectionism1.6594+1.5969 (+2555.1%)+1.6594 (+165940710683.8%)
AI_boom5.3664+1.4900 (+38.4%)+1.2058 (+29.0%)
energy_insecurity8.8434+1.8547 (+26.5%)+0.8518 (+10.7%)
eu_us_relations0.9479+0.8979 (+1795.7%)+0.9479 (+94785960626.6%)
commodities_supercycle5.0407+2.2546 (+80.9%)-0.2286 (-4.3%)
technology_paradigm_shift5.6193+1.1742 (+26.4%)+0.4685 (+9.1%)
energy_transition1.0385+0.2254 (+27.7%)+0.6016 (+137.7%)
dollar_strength0.6358+0.0613 (+10.7%)+0.4502 (+242.6%)
ex_usa_trade0.6417+0.2545 (+65.7%)+0.0851 (+15.3%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

138 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-02 22:00 UTC