📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-10 04:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-10 (built 04:15 UTC), 185 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.23
  •  euphoria z=+0.26
  •  fear z=-1.78
  •  frustration z=+0.43
  •  greed z=-0.30
  •  hope z=-0.04
  •  optimism z=-0.89
  •  panic z=-0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.54
  •  uncertainty z=-1.08
2. energy_insecurity   confidence    fear 
  •  confidence z=-2.10
  •  euphoria z=+1.11
  •  fear z=-1.90
  •  frustration z=-0.62
  •  greed z=-1.35
  •  hope z=+0.08
  •  optimism z=-0.77
  •  panic z=-0.55
  •  skepticism z=-0.88
  •  uncertainty z=-1.10
3. technology_paradigm_shift   euphoria 
  •  confidence z=+0.48
  •  euphoria z=+1.97
  •  fear z=-1.49
  •  frustration z=-0.40
  •  greed z=+0.47
  •  hope z=+0.61
  •  optimism z=-0.03
  •  panic z=+0.81
  •  skepticism z=-0.73
  •  uncertainty z=-0.10
4. commodities_supercycle   confidence    fear 
  •  confidence z=-2.52
  •  euphoria z=-0.11
  •  fear z=-2.17
  •  frustration z=-1.56
  •  greed z=-1.14
  •  hope z=+0.53
  •  optimism z=-1.93
  •  panic z=-1.25
  •  skepticism z=-0.55
  •  uncertainty z=-1.10
5. AI_boom   euphoria    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-0.44
  •  euphoria z=+2.21
  •  fear z=-1.51
  •  frustration z=-0.74
  •  greed z=+0.39
  •  hope z=-0.03
  •  optimism z=-1.81
  •  panic z=+1.07
  •  skepticism z=-0.49
  •  uncertainty z=+0.32

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

luddite_fear +0.08σ DoD
+0.08σ vs own history — +5% change, now at 67th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-1.41
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.18
  •  frustration z=-0.28
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+1.41
  •  optimism z=+1.41
  •  skepticism z=-0.26
  •  uncertainty z=-0.25

↓ Top Decreases

geopolitical_risk -0.90σ DoD
-0.90σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 14th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.05
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.10
  •  frustration z=-0.05
  •  greed z=-0.23
  •  hope z=-0.19
  •  optimism z=-0.31
  •  panic z=-0.07
  •  skepticism z=-0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.06
energy_insecurity -0.85σ DoD
-0.85σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.09
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.12
  •  frustration z=-0.18
  •  greed z=-0.11
  •  hope z=-0.12
  •  optimism z=-0.18
  •  panic z=-0.09
  •  skepticism z=+0.04
  •  uncertainty z=-0.02
defense_rearmament -0.78σ DoD
-0.78σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.02
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.14
  •  frustration z=-0.00
  •  greed z=-0.21
  •  hope z=+0.08
  •  optimism z=+0.04
  •  panic z=-0.04
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=-0.25

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

luddite_fear: +3.25σ WoW — trend accelerating
+3.25σ vs own history — +64727399821% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.00
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.00
  •  uncertainty z=+0.00
demographic_shift: +0.74σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.74σ vs own history — +101% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-2.02
  •  frustration z=-1.37
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.61
  •  uncertainty z=+0.07
stagflation: +0.31σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.31σ vs own history — +65% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.51
  •  frustration z=-1.33
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+3.53
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+1.34
  •  skepticism z=-3.27
  •  uncertainty z=-2.51

↓ Top Decreases

dollar_strength: -1.91σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.91σ vs own history — -46% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.92
  •  fear z=-0.74
  •  frustration z=+0.89
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+1.10
  •  optimism z=+0.83
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-1.50
  •  uncertainty z=-2.22
ex_usa_trade: -1.29σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.29σ vs own history — -60% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.77
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.45
  •  frustration z=-1.16
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.74
  •  optimism z=+0.41
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.63
  •  uncertainty z=+0.43
deglobalisation: -1.16σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.16σ vs own history — -34% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.88
  •  frustration z=-0.40
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.05
  •  uncertainty z=-0.12

Narratives to Look Out For

luddite_fearp100

Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.71
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.67
  •  frustration z=-0.71
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.71
  •  optimism z=+0.71
  •  skepticism z=+0.44
  •  uncertainty z=-0.70
demographic_shiftp92

Attention is at the 92th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.59
  •  fear z=-1.60
  •  frustration z=-0.55
  •  greed z=+0.94
  •  hope z=+0.55
  •  optimism z=+0.83
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.70
  •  uncertainty z=-0.95
trade_protectionismp90

Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.12
  •  fear z=+1.43
  •  frustration z=-0.12
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-1.18
  •  optimism z=+0.12
  •  panic z=+0.70
  •  skepticism z=+1.24
  •  uncertainty z=-0.23

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.44 — Skepticism z-score: -0.03.
Fear most concentrated in banking_crisis
Average fear score for banking_crisis: 0.65.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.50), energy_insecurity (0.50), technology_paradigm_shift (0.43).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.015 vs 7-day baseline 0.010.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.4%), luddite_fear (+2.7%).

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p82 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch luddite_fear: WoW rising (+64727399821%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-1.44, regime_score=-1.78

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 260dBreadth
geopolitical_risk11.8736-0.6653+0.643914th10
energy_insecurity8.2439-0.4428+0.984611th10
technology_paradigm_shift5.0585-0.1778+0.823318th10
commodities_supercycle4.4955-0.2276+0.482511th10
AI_boom4.3031-0.1567+0.313411th9
crypto_adoption4.0483-0.2148+0.14044th8
inflation3.4079-0.0919+0.809425th9
sector_rotation2.8901-0.1111+0.037418th7
recession2.2335-0.1139-0.679314th8
trade_protectionism1.7136-0.0923+0.378020th7

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-10

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
geopolitical_risk28.1320+16.2376 (+136.5%)+17.2466 (+158.4%)
technology_paradigm_shift18.0726+11.9378 (+194.6%)+14.4542 (+399.5%)
energy_insecurity20.6338+12.3418 (+148.8%)+13.8700 (+205.1%)
inflation13.7793+10.4935 (+319.4%)+11.3270 (+461.9%)
AI_boom15.0568+9.7663 (+184.6%)+11.6327 (+339.7%)
commodities_supercycle12.0524+7.4120 (+159.7%)+8.0489 (+201.0%)
sector_rotation9.7795+6.9375 (+244.1%)+7.4629 (+322.2%)
crypto_adoption10.2839+5.5543 (+117.4%)+6.6664 (+184.3%)
stagflation6.9302+5.5798 (+413.2%)+6.3398 (+1073.9%)
banking_crisis6.7554+5.6940 (+536.5%)+5.0422 (+294.3%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

167 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-10 04:00 UTC