Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-29 (built 12:09 UTC), 211 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk hope ↓
- confidence z=-0.84
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=+1.03
- frustration z=-0.30
- greed z=-0.42
- hope z=-1.60
- optimism z=-0.11
- panic z=+0.64
- skepticism z=+0.13
- uncertainty z=+0.88
2. energy_insecurity
- confidence z=-0.06
- euphoria z=+0.11
- fear z=+1.46
- frustration z=-0.49
- greed z=-0.64
- hope z=-0.98
- optimism z=-0.19
- panic z=+0.67
- skepticism z=-0.13
- uncertainty z=-0.62
3. recession euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.19
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.40
- frustration z=-0.22
- greed z=-0.36
- hope z=+1.26
- optimism z=+1.20
- panic z=+1.24
- skepticism z=+0.20
- uncertainty z=+0.51
4. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=+0.27
- euphoria z=-1.23
- fear z=-0.83
- frustration z=+0.29
- greed z=-1.21
- hope z=+0.11
- optimism z=+0.43
- panic z=+0.54
- skepticism z=-0.20
- uncertainty z=+0.09
5. AI_boom
- confidence z=+0.64
- euphoria z=-0.70
- fear z=+0.91
- frustration z=-0.82
- greed z=-0.99
- hope z=-0.68
- optimism z=-0.58
- panic z=+1.19
- skepticism z=-0.78
- uncertainty z=+0.45
What Changed Since Yesterday
geopolitical_risk ↓ -31%
-2.99 DoD change — now at 38th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.30
- frustration z=-0.36
- greed z=-0.14
- hope z=-0.43
- optimism z=+0.56
- panic z=-0.10
- skepticism z=-0.20
- uncertainty z=+0.27
recession ↓ -29%
-1.66 DoD change — now at 83th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.46
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.39
- frustration z=-0.32
- greed z=-0.04
- hope z=+0.30
- optimism z=+0.49
- panic z=+0.27
- skepticism z=-0.82
- uncertainty z=-0.41
AI_boom ↓ -35%
-1.60 DoD change — now at 34th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.60
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.18
- frustration z=+0.03
- greed z=-0.58
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=+0.41
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.62
- uncertainty z=-0.51
What Changed Since Last Week
geopolitical_risk: -37% WoW — trend decelerating
-3.95 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.80
- euphoria z=-1.07
- fear z=+0.51
- frustration z=+0.03
- greed z=-2.40
- hope z=-1.01
- optimism z=-0.56
- panic z=+0.14
- skepticism z=+0.71
- uncertainty z=+0.20
energy_insecurity: -38% WoW — trend decelerating
-2.83 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.50
- euphoria z=-0.92
- fear z=+1.12
- frustration z=-0.07
- greed z=-1.58
- hope z=-0.80
- optimism z=+0.14
- panic z=+0.38
- skepticism z=+0.62
- uncertainty z=-0.67
AI_boom: -39% WoW — trend decelerating
-1.90 absolute WoW change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.85
- euphoria z=+0.28
- fear z=+2.30
- frustration z=-1.32
- greed z=-0.68
- hope z=+0.39
- optimism z=+0.31
- panic z=+1.62
- skepticism z=-0.51
- uncertainty z=-0.22
Narratives to Look Out For
recessionp83
Attention is at the 83th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.19
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.40
- frustration z=-0.22
- greed z=-0.36
- hope z=+1.26
- optimism z=+1.20
- panic z=+1.24
- skepticism z=+0.20
- uncertainty z=+0.51
demographic_shiftp77
Attention is at the 77th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.79
- fear z=-0.03
- frustration z=+0.02
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.78
- optimism z=+0.61
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.29
- uncertainty z=-0.09
inflationp76
Attention is at the 76th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.61
- euphoria z=+1.51
- fear z=+0.67
- frustration z=-0.46
- greed z=+0.01
- hope z=+0.14
- optimism z=+1.32
- panic z=+0.88
- skepticism z=-0.31
- uncertainty z=+0.38
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism subdued
Fear z-score: +0.47 — Skepticism z-score: -0.74.
Fear most concentrated in defense_rearmament
Average fear score for defense_rearmament: 0.78.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.69), energy_insecurity (0.73), recession (0.69).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.008 vs 7-day baseline 0.010.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p38 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch recession: WoW rising (+40%)
If trend continues → quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.47, regime_score=+2.50
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 6.5938 | -2.9914 | -3.9498 | 38th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 4.6133 | -1.4435 | -2.8327 | 42th | 7 | |
| recession | 4.1084 | -1.6576 | +1.1699 | 83th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.6930 | -0.3707 | +0.3801 | 76th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.2877 | -1.2047 | -0.5074 | 62th | 8 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.0525 | -1.3993 | -1.3972 | 25th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.0077 | -0.4196 | -1.1587 | 42th | 7 | |
| AI_boom | 2.9785 | -1.5973 | -1.9017 | 34th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.5943 | -1.0463 | -0.6847 | 41th | 4 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.7091 | -0.6067 | -0.1609 | 55th | 9 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 13,909 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 120 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 49 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 9,504 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 28,660 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 6,012 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
6,012 total posts | 4,552 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 929 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 859 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 814 |
| r/investing | 768 |
| r/economics | 710 |
| r/stocks | 682 |
| r/StockMarket | 475 |
| r/options | 408 |
| r/finance | 114 |
| r/TrueReddit | 111 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 73 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 69 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-29
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| stagflation | 1.2175 | -0.7692 (-38.7%) | +0.6729 (+123.5%) |
| demographic_shift | 0.3867 | -0.0233 (-5.7%) | +0.1642 (+73.8%) |
| inflation | 3.6930 | -0.3707 (-9.1%) | +0.3801 (+11.5%) |
| energy_transition | 0.5343 | -0.0721 (-11.9%) | +0.1391 (+35.2%) |
| recession | 4.1084 | -1.6576 (-28.7%) | +1.1699 (+39.8%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.4342 | -0.1694 (-28.1%) | +0.1221 (+39.1%) |
| earnings_miss | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_hike | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| crypto_regulation | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
| interest_rate_cut | 0.0000 | +0.0000 (+0.0%) | +0.0000 (+0.0%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
120 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-29 10:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 49 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 13909 |
| narrative_scores | 9504 |
| fetch_runs | 120 |
| post_rankings | 28660 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 49 |