Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-31 (built 16:15 UTC), 274 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk uncertainty ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.25
- euphoria z=+0.28
- fear z=-1.67
- frustration z=-1.32
- greed z=-0.49
- hope z=-0.15
- optimism z=+1.18
- panic z=+1.20
- skepticism z=+0.32
- uncertainty z=-1.84
2. energy_insecurity uncertainty ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.59
- euphoria z=+1.02
- fear z=-1.99
- frustration z=-0.76
- greed z=-0.75
- hope z=+0.51
- optimism z=+0.93
- panic z=+1.42
- skepticism z=+0.14
- uncertainty z=-2.56
3. AI_boom frustration ↓ panic ↑
- confidence z=+0.36
- euphoria z=+1.13
- fear z=-0.23
- frustration z=-2.11
- greed z=-0.81
- hope z=-0.47
- optimism z=-0.40
- panic z=+1.99
- skepticism z=+1.26
- uncertainty z=-1.31
4. crypto_adoption uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=+0.46
- euphoria z=+0.81
- fear z=-1.44
- frustration z=+0.26
- greed z=-0.85
- hope z=-1.21
- optimism z=-0.19
- panic z=+1.47
- skepticism z=-0.93
- uncertainty z=-1.50
5. technology_paradigm_shift
- confidence z=+0.33
- euphoria z=+0.87
- fear z=+1.03
- frustration z=-0.14
- greed z=-1.49
- hope z=+0.02
- optimism z=+0.02
- panic z=+0.71
- skepticism z=-0.25
- uncertainty z=-1.12
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
dollar_strength ↑ +0.84σ DoD
+0.84σ vs own history — +47% change, now at 93th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.38
- fear z=-0.63
- frustration z=+0.14
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.77
- skepticism z=-0.65
- uncertainty z=-0.47
defense_rearmament ↑ +0.44σ DoD
+0.44σ vs own history — +12% change, now at 71th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=+1.61
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.39
- frustration z=-0.13
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.47
- optimism z=+0.96
- panic z=+0.05
- skepticism z=+0.16
- uncertainty z=-2.48
housing_bubble ↑ +0.30σ DoD
+0.30σ vs own history — +70% change, now at 43th percentile; breadth 1 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.53
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=-1.57
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -2.11σ DoD
-2.11σ vs own history — -33% change, now at 48th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.25
- euphoria z=+0.51
- fear z=-0.10
- frustration z=-1.51
- greed z=-0.77
- hope z=-0.81
- optimism z=-1.33
- panic z=+0.24
- skepticism z=+1.49
- uncertainty z=-0.86
demographic_shift ↓ -1.73σ DoD
-1.73σ vs own history — -78% change, now at 20th percentile; breadth 2 subreddits.
- confidence z=-1.07
- fear z=-1.05
- frustration z=-1.58
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.10
- optimism z=-0.69
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.61
- uncertainty z=-0.11
ex_usa_trade ↓ -1.53σ DoD
-1.53σ vs own history — -53% change, now at 29th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-2.83
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.44
- frustration z=-1.46
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.22
- optimism z=-2.25
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.61
- uncertainty z=+1.80
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
deglobalisation: +0.42σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.42σ vs own history — +137% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.96
- frustration z=+0.33
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.91
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.53
- uncertainty z=-2.91
fed_pivot: +0.22σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.22σ vs own history — +88% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.19
- euphoria z=-1.12
- fear z=-0.60
- frustration z=-0.51
- greed z=-1.21
- hope z=-1.38
- optimism z=+0.83
- panic z=-1.21
- skepticism z=-0.23
- uncertainty z=-0.96
interest_rate_insecurity: +0.06σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.06σ vs own history — +57% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.97
- euphoria z=+0.38
- fear z=-2.71
- frustration z=+0.45
- greed z=-1.71
- hope z=+1.14
- optimism z=+1.01
- panic z=+2.31
- skepticism z=+1.17
- uncertainty z=-1.20
↓ Top Decreases
demographic_shift: -1.90σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.90σ vs own history — -80% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.87
- fear z=-3.24
- frustration z=-2.34
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.22
- optimism z=-1.48
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.19
- uncertainty z=-1.74
banking_crisis: -1.88σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.88σ vs own history — -38% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.11
- fear z=-3.18
- frustration z=-2.79
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.75
- optimism z=+0.67
- panic z=-1.13
- skepticism z=-0.87
- uncertainty z=-1.89
commodities_supercycle: -1.57σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.57σ vs own history — -41% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.15
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.83
- frustration z=-2.71
- greed z=-1.20
- hope z=-0.03
- optimism z=-0.30
- panic z=+1.66
- skepticism z=-0.81
- uncertainty z=-0.75
Narratives to Look Out For
dollar_strengthp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.24
- fear z=+0.38
- frustration z=-1.68
- greed z=+0.41
- hope z=+0.64
- optimism z=+0.51
- panic z=+2.34
- skepticism z=+0.45
- uncertainty z=+0.72
crypto_adoptionp86
Attention is at the 86th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.46
- euphoria z=+0.81
- fear z=-1.44
- frustration z=+0.26
- greed z=-0.85
- hope z=-1.21
- optimism z=-0.19
- panic z=+1.47
- skepticism z=-0.93
- uncertainty z=-1.50
fed_pivotp83
Attention is at the 83th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.55
- euphoria z=-1.24
- fear z=+0.19
- frustration z=+0.83
- greed z=-0.39
- hope z=-0.44
- optimism z=+0.49
- panic z=+0.13
- skepticism z=-0.69
- uncertainty z=+0.03
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -2.56 — Skepticism z-score: -0.25.
Fear most concentrated in defense_rearmament
Average fear score for defense_rearmament: 0.72.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.66), energy_insecurity (0.64), AI_boom (0.55).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.005 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p45 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch deglobalisation: WoW rising (+137%)
If trend continues → domestic equity bias, supply-chain plays.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-2.56, regime_score=-1.09
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.4018 | -2.0932 | -3.8191 | 45th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.4137 | -1.1876 | -1.7266 | 52th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 4.2505 | +0.2033 | -0.2374 | 86th | 7 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 3.8041 | -0.5680 | -0.2237 | 22th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 3.7983 | -1.1116 | +0.4317 | 52th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.0200 | -1.3629 | -2.0614 | 38th | 7 | |
| inflation | 2.9886 | -1.2440 | +0.4916 | 52th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.8438 | -1.4282 | -0.3932 | 48th | 8 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.6502 | -1.1146 | +0.9599 | 77th | 10 | |
| recession | 2.5993 | -1.0218 | -0.4681 | 45th | 9 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-31
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| stagflation | 1.3148 | -0.0470 (-3.4%) | +0.3804 (+40.7%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.6502 | -1.1146 (-29.6%) | +0.9599 (+56.8%) |
| dollar_strength | 0.9081 | +0.2905 (+47.0%) | -0.1098 (-10.8%) |
| fed_pivot | 1.1741 | -0.7903 (-40.2%) | +0.5492 (+87.9%) |
| housing_bubble | 0.1333 | +0.0548 (+69.7%) | -0.0708 (-34.7%) |
| deglobalisation | 0.1779 | -0.2525 (-58.7%) | +0.1027 (+136.5%) |
| crypto_adoption | 4.2505 | +0.2033 (+5.0%) | -0.2374 (-5.3%) |
| AI_boom | 3.7983 | -1.1116 (-22.6%) | +0.4317 (+12.8%) |
| defense_rearmament | 1.5643 | +0.1656 (+11.8%) | -0.4470 (-22.2%) |
| inflation | 2.9886 | -1.2440 (-29.4%) | +0.4916 (+19.7%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
129 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-31 16:00 UTC