📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-04-10 10:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-04-10 (built 10:15 UTC), 209 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   fear 
  •  confidence z=+0.15
  •  euphoria z=+0.27
  •  fear z=-1.82
  •  frustration z=+0.28
  •  greed z=-0.60
  •  hope z=-0.25
  •  optimism z=-1.24
  •  panic z=-0.09
  •  skepticism z=-0.73
  •  uncertainty z=-1.03
2. energy_insecurity   confidence    fear 
  •  confidence z=-2.20
  •  euphoria z=+0.93
  •  fear z=-1.99
  •  frustration z=-0.87
  •  greed z=-1.49
  •  hope z=-0.07
  •  optimism z=-0.96
  •  panic z=-0.67
  •  skepticism z=-0.89
  •  uncertainty z=-1.05
3. technology_paradigm_shift   euphoria 
  •  confidence z=+0.42
  •  euphoria z=+2.11
  •  fear z=-1.39
  •  frustration z=-0.44
  •  greed z=+0.44
  •  hope z=+0.63
  •  optimism z=-0.12
  •  panic z=+0.82
  •  skepticism z=-0.71
  •  uncertainty z=-0.03
4. commodities_supercycle   confidence    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-2.60
  •  euphoria z=-0.27
  •  fear z=-2.25
  •  frustration z=-1.86
  •  greed z=-1.32
  •  hope z=+0.38
  •  optimism z=-2.31
  •  panic z=-1.35
  •  skepticism z=-0.50
  •  uncertainty z=-1.05
5. AI_boom   euphoria    optimism 
  •  confidence z=-0.59
  •  euphoria z=+2.30
  •  fear z=-1.47
  •  frustration z=-0.79
  •  greed z=+0.32
  •  hope z=-0.02
  •  optimism z=-1.95
  •  panic z=+0.95
  •  skepticism z=-0.50
  •  uncertainty z=+0.38

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

dollar_strength +0.39σ DoD
+0.39σ vs own history — +19% change, now at 85th percentile; breadth 4 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+1.07
  •  fear z=-0.04
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.70
  •  uncertainty z=-0.64
ex_usa_trade +0.09σ DoD
+0.09σ vs own history — +9% change, now at 26th percentile; breadth 3 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.53
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.43
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.18
  •  optimism z=-0.22
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.54
  •  uncertainty z=-1.29

↓ Top Decreases

geopolitical_risk -1.40σ DoD
-1.40σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 18th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.13
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.15
  •  frustration z=-0.20
  •  greed z=-0.55
  •  hope z=-0.41
  •  optimism z=-0.69
  •  panic z=-0.16
  •  skepticism z=-0.20
  •  uncertainty z=+0.12
energy_insecurity -1.36σ DoD
-1.36σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 15th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=-0.22
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.23
  •  frustration z=-0.43
  •  greed z=-0.27
  •  hope z=-0.28
  •  optimism z=-0.38
  •  panic z=-0.21
  •  skepticism z=+0.03
  •  uncertainty z=+0.04
crypto_adoption -1.24σ DoD
-1.24σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.13
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.05
  •  frustration z=-0.34
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.14
  •  optimism z=+0.07
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.30
  •  uncertainty z=-0.72

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

demographic_shift: +0.61σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.61σ vs own history — +90% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-2.20
  •  frustration z=-1.29
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.53
  •  uncertainty z=-0.10
stagflation: +0.32σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.32σ vs own history — +65% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.66
  •  frustration z=-1.38
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+3.59
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+1.18
  •  skepticism z=-3.30
  •  uncertainty z=-2.49
fed_pivot: +0.03σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.03σ vs own history — +21% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.80
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.42
  •  frustration z=-1.67
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.07
  •  optimism z=-0.37
  •  panic z=+0.30
  •  skepticism z=-1.32
  •  uncertainty z=-0.98

↓ Top Decreases

dollar_strength: -1.62σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.62σ vs own history — -34% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.20
  •  fear z=-0.76
  •  frustration z=+1.65
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+1.24
  •  optimism z=+0.64
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-1.91
  •  uncertainty z=-2.60
deglobalisation: -1.24σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.24σ vs own history — -38% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.82
  •  frustration z=-0.51
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.08
  •  uncertainty z=+0.24
ex_usa_trade: -1.22σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.22σ vs own history — -55% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+1.13
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.69
  •  frustration z=-1.08
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.92
  •  optimism z=+0.33
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+1.18
  •  uncertainty z=-0.50

Narratives to Look Out For

technology_paradigm_shiftp82

Attention is at the 82th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.42
  •  euphoria z=+2.11
  •  fear z=-1.39
  •  frustration z=-0.44
  •  greed z=+0.44
  •  hope z=+0.63
  •  optimism z=-0.12
  •  panic z=+0.82
  •  skepticism z=-0.71
  •  uncertainty z=-0.03
energy_insecurityp81

Attention is at the 81th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-2.20
  •  euphoria z=+0.93
  •  fear z=-1.99
  •  frustration z=-0.87
  •  greed z=-1.49
  •  hope z=-0.07
  •  optimism z=-0.96
  •  panic z=-0.67
  •  skepticism z=-0.89
  •  uncertainty z=-1.05
demographic_shiftp80

Attention is at the 80th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.56
  •  fear z=-1.77
  •  frustration z=-0.48
  •  greed z=+1.02
  •  hope z=+0.23
  •  optimism z=+0.82
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.77
  •  uncertainty z=-1.10

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.50 — Skepticism z-score: -0.06.
Fear most concentrated in interest_rate_insecurity
Average fear score for interest_rate_insecurity: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.58), energy_insecurity (0.57), technology_paradigm_shift (0.56).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.008 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-3.4%), technology_paradigm_shift (+2.8%).

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p64 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch demographic_shift: WoW rising (+90%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-1.50, regime_score=-0.58

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 260dBreadth
geopolitical_risk11.2058-1.3331-0.023918th10
energy_insecurity7.7538-0.9329+0.494515th10
technology_paradigm_shift4.9475-0.2887+0.712425th10
AI_boom4.2502-0.2097+0.260533th9
commodities_supercycle4.2254-0.4976+0.212511th10
crypto_adoption3.8050-0.4582-0.10294th8
inflation3.2984-0.2015+0.699932th9
sector_rotation2.8183-0.1829-0.034418th7
recession2.1177-0.2296-0.795014th8
interest_rate_insecurity1.5992-0.1524+0.155418th9

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-10

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
technology_paradigm_shift9.0604+2.9256 (+47.7%)+5.4419 (+150.4%)
AI_boom8.1127+2.8221 (+53.3%)+4.6886 (+136.9%)
geopolitical_risk14.6870+2.7926 (+23.5%)+3.8016 (+34.9%)
inflation5.9632+2.6774 (+81.5%)+3.5108 (+143.2%)
energy_insecurity10.0725+1.7805 (+21.5%)+3.3087 (+48.9%)
sector_rotation5.0029+2.1609 (+76.0%)+2.6864 (+116.0%)
stagflation3.0432+1.6928 (+125.4%)+2.4528 (+415.5%)
banking_crisis2.9619+1.9004 (+179.0%)+1.2486 (+72.9%)
dollar_strength2.2132+1.9320 (+687.1%)+1.0463 (+89.7%)
commodities_supercycle5.5816+0.9412 (+20.3%)+1.5782 (+39.4%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

168 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-04-10 10:00 UTC