Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-03-23 (built 11:15 UTC), 219 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: risk-off — led by sector_rotation, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
What Changed Since Yesterday
- geopolitical_risk down: -2.61 DoD (-25%), now at 58th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- AI_boom down: -1.84 DoD (-38%), now at 38th percentile; breadth 9 subs.
- technology_paradigm_shift down: -1.60 DoD (-36%), now at 40th percentile; breadth 10 subs.
- ⚠️ greed falling fast (z=-2.12)
What Changed Since Last Week
- geopolitical_risk: +6.66 WoW (+494%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ panic rising fast (z=+2.35)
- ⚠️ skepticism falling fast (z=-2.22)
- ⚠️ frustration rising fast (z=+1.87)
- energy_insecurity: +5.30 WoW (+677%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ fear falling fast (z=-2.39)
- ⚠️ frustration rising fast (z=+2.24)
- ⚠️ skepticism falling fast (z=-1.52)
- commodities_supercycle: +3.02 WoW (+912%); trend decelerating over last 3 days.
- ⚠️ frustration rising fast (z=+2.19)
- ⚠️ skepticism falling fast (z=-1.77)
- ⚠️ uncertainty falling fast (z=-1.70)
- ⚠️ fear rising fast (z=+1.54)
Today’s Leaders
Top narratives by attention (30d percentile): 1) sector_rotation (p80) 2) dollar_strength (p77) 3) energy_insecurity (p69) 4) commodities_supercycle (p69) 5) fed_pivot (p69)
Emotion & Positioning Read
- Sentiment: fear neutral (z=+0.88), skepticism subdued (z=-1.60).
- Fear is most concentrated in housing_bubble (avg fear 0.80).
- Narrative-weighted fear (top 3): sector_rotation (0.69), dollar_strength (0.67), energy_insecurity (0.75).
Novelty / New Information
- Novelty: normal (JS=0.011 vs 7d baseline 0.047).
Watchlist
- Watch sector_rotation: if it remains above p80 for 3 days → factor rotation, defensive vs cyclical.
- Watch geopolitical_risk: WoW rising (+494%); if trend continues → defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
- Watch recession / banking_crisis: if WoW continues rising + banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
- Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
- Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=+0.88, regime_score=+2.24
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 30d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 8.0075 | -2.6098 | +6.6593 | 58th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.0827 | -1.3633 | +5.2994 | 69th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.3506 | -0.8158 | +3.0197 | 69th | 8 | |
| AI_boom | 3.0397 | -1.8405 | +2.5197 | 38th | 9 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.0357 | -0.7594 | +2.8019 | 80th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.8504 | -1.5993 | +2.2337 | 40th | 10 | |
| recession | 2.7995 | -0.1992 | +2.2923 | 46th | 10 | |
| inflation | 2.6165 | -0.6964 | +2.2208 | 50th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.5159 | -0.7631 | +2.4796 | 46th | 6 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.5174 | -0.3526 | +1.2708 | 57th | 10 |
Database Overview
| Table | Rows | Columns |
|---|---|---|
emotion_scores | 10,503 | id, post_id, emotion, score |
fetch_runs | 96 | id, started_at |
narrative_gap_analyses | 40 | id, analyzed_at, max_age_days, max_score, post_count, common_narrative, narrative_certainty, common_emotion, raw_response |
narrative_scores | 7,103 | id, post_id, narrative, score |
post_rankings | 22,900 | id, run_id, post_id, subreddit, rank |
posts | 4,939 | id, subreddit, title, selftext, url, reddit_score, num_comments, created_utc, retrieved_at, analyzed_at |
sqlite_sequence | 5 | name, seq |
Posts
4,939 total posts | 3,479 analyzed
By Subreddit
| Subreddit | Posts |
|---|---|
| r/ValueInvesting | 787 |
| r/cryptocurrency | 709 |
| r/wallstreetbets | 675 |
| r/investing | 633 |
| r/economics | 591 |
| r/stocks | 556 |
| r/StockMarket | 395 |
| r/options | 332 |
| r/finance | 100 |
| r/SecurityAnalysis | 69 |
| r/TrueReddit | 58 |
| r/PoliticalDiscussion | 34 |
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-23
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 8.0075 | -2.6098 (-24.6%) | +6.6593 (+493.9%) |
| energy_insecurity | 6.0827 | -1.3633 (-18.3%) | +5.2994 (+676.5%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.3506 | -0.8158 (-19.6%) | +3.0197 (+912.4%) |
| sector_rotation | 3.0357 | -0.7594 (-20.0%) | +2.8019 (+1198.4%) |
| recession | 2.7995 | -0.1992 (-6.6%) | +2.2923 (+451.9%) |
| crypto_adoption | 2.5159 | -0.7631 (-23.3%) | +2.4796 (+6818.9%) |
| inflation | 2.6165 | -0.6964 (-21.0%) | +2.2208 (+561.2%) |
| AI_boom | 3.0397 | -1.8405 (-37.7%) | +2.5197 (+484.6%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 2.8504 | -1.5993 (-35.9%) | +2.2337 (+362.2%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.5174 | -0.3526 (-18.9%) | +1.2708 (+515.2%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
Fetch Runs
96 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-03-23 11:00 UTC
Additional Tables
narrative_gap_analyses 40 rows
| id | analyzed_at | max_age_days | max_score | post_count | common_narrative | narrative_certainty | common_emotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1772708617.266572 | 5 | 0.5 | 381 | Retail investors grappling with market volatility, seeking strategies for long-term investing while navigating short-term fears and information overload. | 0.85 | anxiety |
| 2 | 1772730380.064614 | 5 | 0.5 | 377 | Retail investors seeking undervalued opportunities and strategic edges in a volatile market, with a focus on individual stock analysis, options strategies, and portfolio optimization. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 3 | 1772751792.9824095 | 5 | 0.5 | 383 | Retail traders and investors navigating high volatility, complex options strategies, and a search for undervalued opportunities in a market perceived as overpriced or irrational, while grappling with emotional discipline and information overload. | 0.75 | anxious |
| 4 | 1772773399.0125508 | 5 | 0.5 | 387 | Retail investors seeking actionable strategies and tools for stock picking, options trading, and portfolio management in a volatile market, while grappling with information overload and emotional discipline. | 0.85 | anxious |
| 5 | 1772794990.7780485 | 5 | 0.5 | 390 | Retail investors seeking self-directed, systematic, and tool-assisted approaches to navigate complex markets, often focusing on undervalued opportunities, options strategies, and personal portfolio construction amid volatility. | 0.85 | anxious determination |
sqlite_sequence 5 rows
| name | seq |
|---|---|
| emotion_scores | 10503 |
| narrative_scores | 7103 |
| fetch_runs | 96 |
| post_rankings | 22900 |
| narrative_gap_analyses | 40 |