Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-11 (built 04:15 UTC), 185 posts today across 10 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk optimism ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-0.00
- euphoria z=+0.26
- fear z=-1.71
- frustration z=-0.34
- greed z=-0.31
- hope z=-0.86
- optimism z=-2.03
- panic z=+0.49
- skepticism z=-0.75
- uncertainty z=-1.17
2. energy_insecurity confidence ↓ hope ↓
- confidence z=-2.03
- euphoria z=+1.11
- fear z=-1.80
- frustration z=-1.00
- greed z=-1.10
- hope z=-1.82
- optimism z=-1.68
- panic z=+0.19
- skepticism z=-0.82
- uncertainty z=-1.17
3. technology_paradigm_shift euphoria ↑
- confidence z=+0.36
- euphoria z=+1.95
- fear z=-1.37
- frustration z=-0.99
- greed z=-0.05
- hope z=+0.54
- optimism z=-0.36
- panic z=+0.81
- skepticism z=-0.80
- uncertainty z=+0.07
4. AI_boom euphoria ↑ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-0.41
- euphoria z=+2.05
- fear z=-1.42
- frustration z=-1.13
- greed z=-0.22
- hope z=-0.22
- optimism z=-1.95
- panic z=+1.07
- skepticism z=-0.93
- uncertainty z=+0.25
5. commodities_supercycle optimism ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-2.18
- euphoria z=-0.11
- fear z=-1.87
- frustration z=-1.67
- greed z=-0.17
- hope z=+1.02
- optimism z=-2.26
- panic z=-0.17
- skepticism z=-0.53
- uncertainty z=-1.01
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.81σ DoD
-0.81σ vs own history — -6% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.03
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.09
- frustration z=+0.11
- greed z=-0.02
- hope z=-0.06
- optimism z=-0.07
- panic z=+0.09
- skepticism z=-0.12
- uncertainty z=+0.07
geopolitical_risk ↓ -0.75σ DoD
-0.75σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 14th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.08
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.02
- frustration z=-0.04
- greed z=+0.04
- hope z=-0.19
- optimism z=-0.20
- panic z=+0.12
- skepticism z=+0.11
- uncertainty z=-0.07
energy_insecurity ↓ -0.73σ DoD
-0.73σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.05
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.03
- frustration z=-0.14
- greed z=+0.10
- hope z=-0.57
- optimism z=-0.16
- panic z=+0.20
- skepticism z=+0.04
- uncertainty z=-0.11
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
stagflation: +0.99σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.99σ vs own history — +224% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.09
- frustration z=-1.34
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.47
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+2.35
- skepticism z=-1.82
- uncertainty z=-2.07
inflation: +0.37σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.37σ vs own history — +56% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-2.51
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.11
- frustration z=-1.26
- greed z=+0.57
- hope z=-2.02
- optimism z=-1.22
- panic z=+1.83
- skepticism z=-0.80
- uncertainty z=-1.16
technology_paradigm_shift: +0.30σ WoW — trend decelerating
+0.30σ vs own history — +40% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.20
- euphoria z=+2.15
- fear z=-0.83
- frustration z=-1.93
- greed z=+2.72
- hope z=+0.37
- optimism z=-0.50
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=+1.26
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation: -1.09σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.09σ vs own history — -32% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.53
- frustration z=-0.74
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.90
- uncertainty z=+0.75
ex_usa_trade: -0.93σ WoW — trend accelerating
-0.93σ vs own history — -44% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.36
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.39
- frustration z=-0.87
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+1.40
- optimism z=+1.08
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.76
- uncertainty z=-0.86
recession: -0.69σ WoW — trend decelerating
-0.69σ vs own history — -26% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+1.90
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-2.04
- frustration z=+2.83
- greed z=-1.08
- hope z=+0.21
- optimism z=+0.03
- panic z=+1.77
- skepticism z=-0.62
- uncertainty z=-0.43
Narratives to Look Out For
technology_paradigm_shiftp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.36
- euphoria z=+1.95
- fear z=-1.37
- frustration z=-0.99
- greed z=-0.05
- hope z=+0.54
- optimism z=-0.36
- panic z=+0.81
- skepticism z=-0.80
- uncertainty z=+0.07
AI_boomp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.41
- euphoria z=+2.05
- fear z=-1.42
- frustration z=-1.13
- greed z=-0.22
- hope z=-0.22
- optimism z=-1.95
- panic z=+1.07
- skepticism z=-0.93
- uncertainty z=+0.25
stagflationp88
Attention is at the 88th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.82
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-1.81
- frustration z=-1.53
- greed z=-0.34
- hope z=+2.05
- optimism z=+0.52
- panic z=+0.42
- skepticism z=-1.88
- uncertainty z=-1.92
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.42 — Skepticism z-score: -0.19.
Fear most concentrated in sector_rotation
Average fear score for sector_rotation: 0.80.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.62), energy_insecurity (0.70), technology_paradigm_shift (0.30).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: very elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.016 vs 7-day baseline 0.007.
Narratives driving novelty shift
geopolitical_risk (-4.7%), energy_insecurity (-3.6%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p48 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch stagflation: WoW rising (+224%)
If trend continues → real assets, commodity exposure.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.42, regime_score=-0.95
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 10.6202 | -0.5565 | +0.4362 | 14th | 10 | |
| energy_insecurity | 7.3271 | -0.3899 | +0.5084 | 11th | 9 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.4910 | -0.2373 | +1.5797 | 17th | 10 | |
| AI_boom | 4.9950 | -0.1827 | +1.4148 | 18th | 8 | |
| inflation | 4.3886 | -0.1139 | +1.5818 | 41th | 10 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 4.1708 | -0.2097 | +0.0108 | 11th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.6116 | -0.2009 | +0.0160 | 4th | 5 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.0495 | -0.1410 | +0.2669 | 17th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.2177 | -0.0789 | -0.7743 | 14th | 9 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 2.0228 | -0.0410 | +0.5216 | 41th | 10 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-11
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 27.3779 | +17.5635 (+179.0%) | +18.2396 (+199.6%) |
| inflation | 18.0007 | +12.4956 (+227.0%) | +14.9854 (+497.0%) |
| AI_boom | 17.4281 | +11.5324 (+195.6%) | +14.2573 (+449.6%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 17.0580 | +10.8377 (+174.2%) | +13.4705 (+375.5%) |
| energy_insecurity | 18.5427 | +11.7954 (+174.8%) | +12.1646 (+190.7%) |
| banking_crisis | 9.6691 | +7.8103 (+420.2%) | +8.3147 (+613.9%) |
| stagflation | 9.0599 | +6.5978 (+268.0%) | +8.7091 (+2482.7%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 8.9575 | +6.5815 (+277.0%) | +7.3988 (+474.7%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 11.2632 | +7.2253 (+178.9%) | +6.9561 (+161.5%) |
| sector_rotation | 8.9462 | +5.5663 (+164.7%) | +6.2336 (+229.8%) |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
171 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-11 04:00 UTC