Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-18 (built 10:15 UTC), 233 posts today across 11 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk greed ↓ skepticism ↓
- confidence z=-1.78
- euphoria z=+1.31
- fear z=-1.46
- frustration z=+0.86
- greed z=-2.27
- hope z=+0.27
- optimism z=-0.34
- panic z=-1.60
- skepticism z=-1.97
- uncertainty z=-1.11
2. energy_insecurity panic ↓ frustration ↓
- confidence z=-1.41
- euphoria z=+1.04
- fear z=-1.40
- frustration z=-1.80
- greed z=-1.48
- hope z=-0.43
- optimism z=-0.20
- panic z=-2.21
- skepticism z=-1.13
- uncertainty z=-1.07
3. technology_paradigm_shift confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.22
- euphoria z=+0.59
- fear z=-1.52
- frustration z=-0.59
- greed z=+0.18
- hope z=-0.94
- optimism z=-1.44
- panic z=+0.87
- skepticism z=+0.49
- uncertainty z=-1.28
4. AI_boom confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.59
- euphoria z=+0.34
- fear z=-1.81
- frustration z=+0.13
- greed z=+0.36
- hope z=-0.24
- optimism z=-1.04
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=+0.18
- uncertainty z=-1.31
5. commodities_supercycle hope ↓ panic ↓
- confidence z=-1.69
- euphoria z=+0.64
- fear z=-1.07
- frustration z=-1.88
- greed z=-1.72
- hope z=-2.17
- optimism z=-2.01
- panic z=-2.15
- skepticism z=-1.05
- uncertainty z=-0.62
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
sector_rotation ↓ -1.17σ DoD
-1.17σ vs own history — -11% change, now at 6th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.16
- euphoria z=-0.04
- fear z=-0.06
- frustration z=+0.60
- greed z=-0.44
- hope z=+0.81
- optimism z=+0.12
- panic z=-0.14
- skepticism z=-0.04
- uncertainty z=+0.06
AI_boom ↓ -1.16σ DoD
-1.16σ vs own history — -10% change, now at 6th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.20
- euphoria z=-0.11
- fear z=+0.10
- frustration z=+0.36
- greed z=-0.30
- hope z=+0.40
- optimism z=-0.07
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.09
- uncertainty z=-0.16
technology_paradigm_shift ↓ -1.08σ DoD
-1.08σ vs own history — -9% change, now at 10th percentile; breadth 11 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.43
- euphoria z=+0.18
- fear z=+0.52
- frustration z=+0.48
- greed z=-0.41
- hope z=+0.09
- optimism z=-0.22
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.02
- uncertainty z=-0.03
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
demographic_shift: +2.45σ WoW — trend accelerating
+2.45σ vs own history — +158% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.47
- fear z=-1.26
- frustration z=+0.27
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-2.22
- optimism z=-1.53
- skepticism z=+0.30
- uncertainty z=-0.40
housing_bubble: +1.77σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.77σ vs own history — +1033% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
ex_usa_trade: +1.18σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.18σ vs own history — +117% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.58
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.43
- frustration z=+0.54
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=-1.67
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.34
- uncertainty z=+0.46
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation: -2.42σ WoW — trend accelerating
-2.42σ vs own history — -53% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.95
- fear z=-1.62
- frustration z=+0.31
- greed z=+2.81
- hope z=-1.34
- optimism z=-1.59
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-3.13
- uncertainty z=-0.85
banking_crisis: -2.01σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.01σ vs own history — -31% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.61
- fear z=+0.58
- frustration z=+0.28
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.39
- optimism z=+1.18
- panic z=-3.12
- skepticism z=-0.78
- uncertainty z=+0.97
inflation: -1.61σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.61σ vs own history — -30% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.02
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.40
- frustration z=+0.08
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+3.28
- optimism z=+0.55
- panic z=-2.86
- skepticism z=-0.29
- uncertainty z=+0.45
Narratives to Look Out For
housing_bubblep100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.89
- fear z=-1.32
- frustration z=+0.98
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.75
- optimism z=+0.32
- panic z=+1.10
- skepticism z=+1.14
- uncertainty z=-0.06
demographic_shiftp97
Attention is at the 97th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.22
- fear z=-0.53
- frustration z=-0.19
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.23
- optimism z=-1.18
- skepticism z=+0.64
- uncertainty z=-0.12
ex_usa_tradep84
Attention is at the 84th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.59
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.61
- frustration z=-0.86
- greed z=-1.23
- hope z=-1.54
- optimism z=-1.66
- panic z=-0.79
- skepticism z=-0.82
- uncertainty z=-0.89
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.85 — Skepticism z-score: +0.53.
Fear most concentrated in defense_rearmament
Average fear score for defense_rearmament: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.58), energy_insecurity (0.61), technology_paradigm_shift (0.57).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p16 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch demographic_shift: WoW rising (+158%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.85, regime_score=-2.06
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.4668 | -0.4856 | -0.9410 | 6th | 11 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.0883 | -0.1804 | -0.6986 | 6th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.8113 | -0.4661 | -0.7385 | 10th | 11 | |
| AI_boom | 4.6486 | -0.5338 | -0.4049 | 6th | 9 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.4423 | -0.0163 | -0.3045 | 19th | 10 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.3572 | -0.2410 | -0.0075 | 6th | 8 | |
| inflation | 3.1134 | -0.3109 | -1.3055 | 10th | 8 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.0901 | -0.3715 | +0.3204 | 6th | 9 | |
| recession | 2.3173 | -0.2564 | +0.1300 | 6th | 10 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.8689 | -0.1519 | -0.0866 | 29th | 8 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-18
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 17.8684 | +7.8047 (+77.6%) | +9.0325 (+102.2%) |
| energy_insecurity | 12.6219 | +6.5043 (+106.3%) | +6.9751 (+123.5%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 7.8706 | +4.6337 (+143.1%) | +4.7317 (+150.7%) |
| crypto_adoption | 5.7467 | +2.0974 (+57.5%) | +2.8298 (+97.0%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 7.2019 | +1.8461 (+34.5%) | +1.9520 (+37.2%) |
| AI_boom | 6.2431 | +1.0419 (+20.0%) | +1.3730 (+28.2%) |
| demographic_shift | 1.7457 | +0.7994 (+84.5%) | +1.5276 (+700.4%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 3.0470 | +1.1968 (+64.7%) | +1.1133 (+57.6%) |
| sector_rotation | 4.0069 | -0.0390 (-1.0%) | +1.6581 (+70.6%) |
| recession | 3.1955 | +0.8618 (+36.9%) | +1.0539 (+49.2%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-18
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| demographic_shift | emergence | 1.357 | 0.684 | 0.454 | 0.707 | 0.267 | 0.026 |
| commodities_supercycle | crowding | 1.224 | 0.452 | 0.319 | 0.342 | 0.553 | 0.106 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 1.123 | 0.428 | 0.331 | 0.356 | 0.533 | 0.110 |
| housing_bubble | acceleration | 1.072 | 0.649 | 0.556 | 0.689 | 0.311 | 0.000 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 1.036 | 0.454 | 0.388 | 0.383 | 0.464 | 0.153 |
| recession | exhaustion | 1.012 | 0.481 | 0.426 | 0.378 | 0.505 | 0.117 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.909 | 0.452 | 0.447 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.000 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | exhaustion | 0.823 | 0.469 | 0.520 | 0.467 | 0.474 | 0.059 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.754 | 0.372 | 0.442 | 0.321 | 0.679 | 0.000 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 0.747 | 0.375 | 0.452 | 0.359 | 0.595 | 0.046 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.713 | 0.391 | 0.499 | 0.175 | 0.755 | 0.070 |
| banking_crisis | exhaustion | 0.695 | 0.368 | 0.479 | 0.447 | 0.536 | 0.016 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.689 | 0.383 | 0.506 | 0.283 | 0.656 | 0.062 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.681 | 0.365 | 0.487 | 0.235 | 0.735 | 0.030 |
| stagflation | exhaustion | 0.621 | 0.337 | 0.493 | 0.469 | 0.531 | 0.000 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.615 | 0.313 | 0.459 | 0.313 | 0.687 | 0.000 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 0.608 | 0.354 | 0.532 | 0.182 | 0.779 | 0.040 |
| trade_protectionism | exhaustion | 0.557 | 0.324 | 0.532 | 0.238 | 0.732 | 0.030 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 0.556 | 0.318 | 0.522 | 0.330 | 0.670 | 0.000 |
| eu_us_relations | exhaustion | 0.476 | 0.323 | 0.628 | 0.197 | 0.803 | 0.000 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.442 | 0.253 | 0.523 | 0.346 | 0.654 | 0.000 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.440 | 0.278 | 0.583 | 0.233 | 0.767 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
200 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-18 10:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.50
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -1.331 | -0.532 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.851 | -0.555 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.373 | -0.137 |
| Attention-Weighted Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.354 | -0.271 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.