📈 Narrative Investing – Latest Report

Built: 2026-03-30 22:15 UTC  |  DB: narrative_investing.db

Morning Note

Morning Note — 2026-03-30 (built 22:15 UTC), 333 posts today across 10 subreddits.

Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.

Current Top Market Narratives

1. geopolitical_risk   greed 
  •  confidence z=+0.44
  •  euphoria z=+0.89
  •  fear z=+0.07
  •  frustration z=-0.74
  •  greed z=+1.70
  •  hope z=+0.27
  •  optimism z=+0.03
  •  panic z=+0.96
  •  skepticism z=+0.90
  •  uncertainty z=-0.11
2. energy_insecurity   greed    frustration 
  •  confidence z=+0.17
  •  euphoria z=+0.57
  •  fear z=+0.18
  •  frustration z=-1.53
  •  greed z=+1.83
  •  hope z=+0.86
  •  optimism z=+0.48
  •  panic z=+0.98
  •  skepticism z=+0.41
  •  uncertainty z=-1.13
3. AI_boom   panic    frustration 
  •  confidence z=-0.03
  •  euphoria z=+0.98
  •  fear z=-0.97
  •  frustration z=-2.08
  •  greed z=-0.15
  •  hope z=-0.28
  •  optimism z=-0.33
  •  panic z=+2.42
  •  skepticism z=-0.80
  •  uncertainty z=-0.63
4. recession 
  •  confidence z=+0.97
  •  euphoria z=-0.99
  •  fear z=-0.70
  •  frustration z=+0.04
  •  greed z=-0.53
  •  hope z=+1.30
  •  optimism z=+0.83
  •  panic z=+1.18
  •  skepticism z=+0.30
  •  uncertainty z=-0.01
5. inflation   uncertainty    panic 
  •  confidence z=+1.31
  •  euphoria z=+1.11
  •  fear z=-0.47
  •  frustration z=-0.75
  •  greed z=-0.87
  •  hope z=+0.95
  •  optimism z=+1.17
  •  panic z=+1.58
  •  skepticism z=+0.19
  •  uncertainty z=-1.61

What Changed Since Yesterday

↑ Top Increases

ex_usa_trade +1.01σ DoD
+1.01σ vs own history — +59% change, now at 87th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+2.67
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.26
  •  frustration z=+0.06
  •  greed z=-0.26
  •  hope z=+1.06
  •  optimism z=+2.82
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=-0.25
  •  uncertainty z=+0.47
fed_pivot +0.66σ DoD
+0.66σ vs own history — +44% change, now at 93th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+1.18
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.45
  •  frustration z=+0.00
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=-0.16
  •  optimism z=+0.10
  •  panic z=-0.04
  •  skepticism z=-0.26
  •  uncertainty z=-0.42
AI_boom +0.60σ DoD
+0.60σ vs own history — +26% change, now at 90th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.36
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.62
  •  frustration z=-1.27
  •  greed z=+1.17
  •  hope z=+0.39
  •  optimism z=+0.56
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.19
  •  uncertainty z=-0.75

↓ Top Decreases

recession -2.02σ DoD
-2.02σ vs own history — -34% change, now at 71th percentile; breadth 10 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.77
  •  euphoria z=-2.17
  •  fear z=-0.85
  •  frustration z=+0.04
  •  greed z=-0.60
  •  hope z=+0.00
  •  optimism z=+0.08
  •  panic z=+0.04
  •  skepticism z=-0.22
  •  uncertainty z=-0.72
inflation -1.25σ DoD
-1.25σ vs own history — -26% change, now at 86th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+1.69
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.97
  •  frustration z=-0.62
  •  greed z=-1.72
  •  hope z=+0.32
  •  optimism z=+0.26
  •  panic z=+0.29
  •  skepticism z=-0.33
  •  uncertainty z=-1.76
stagflation -1.03σ DoD
-1.03σ vs own history — -28% change, now at 67th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
  •  confidence z=+0.00
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.41
  •  frustration z=-0.12
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+0.23
  •  optimism z=+0.00
  •  panic z=+0.10
  •  skepticism z=-0.01
  •  uncertainty z=-0.30

What Changed Since Last Week

↑ Top Increases

fed_pivot: +0.77σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.77σ vs own history — +185% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.72
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.22
  •  frustration z=-0.14
  •  greed z=-1.10
  •  hope z=-1.58
  •  optimism z=-0.40
  •  panic z=-0.27
  •  skepticism z=-0.65
  •  uncertainty z=-0.63
ex_usa_trade: +0.57σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.57σ vs own history — +51% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+0.37
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.74
  •  frustration z=+0.82
  •  greed z=+1.03
  •  hope z=+0.72
  •  optimism z=+1.62
  •  panic z=+0.00
  •  skepticism z=+0.45
  •  uncertainty z=-1.50
interest_rate_insecurity: +0.50σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.50σ vs own history — +107% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+2.68
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-1.70
  •  frustration z=-0.22
  •  greed z=+0.00
  •  hope z=+1.28
  •  optimism z=+1.08
  •  panic z=+2.64
  •  skepticism z=+0.88
  •  uncertainty z=-1.22

↓ Top Decreases

defense_rearmament: -1.85σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.85σ vs own history — -37% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-1.87
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=-0.11
  •  frustration z=-2.59
  •  greed z=+2.41
  •  hope z=+0.91
  •  optimism z=-1.21
  •  panic z=+1.22
  •  skepticism z=+2.64
  •  uncertainty z=+1.27
commodities_supercycle: -1.52σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.52σ vs own history — -28% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=-0.76
  •  euphoria z=+0.00
  •  fear z=+0.67
  •  frustration z=-3.17
  •  greed z=-0.93
  •  hope z=-1.91
  •  optimism z=-0.28
  •  panic z=+0.41
  •  skepticism z=-0.12
  •  uncertainty z=+0.26
energy_insecurity: -1.40σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.40σ vs own history — -24% change over the last 3 days.
  •  confidence z=+1.31
  •  euphoria z=+0.17
  •  fear z=+0.35
  •  frustration z=-2.28
  •  greed z=+1.36
  •  hope z=-0.46
  •  optimism z=-0.09
  •  panic z=+0.86
  •  skepticism z=+0.75
  •  uncertainty z=-0.50

Narratives to Look Out For

fed_pivotp93

Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+1.10
  •  euphoria z=-1.24
  •  fear z=+0.33
  •  frustration z=+0.83
  •  greed z=-0.61
  •  hope z=-0.11
  •  optimism z=+0.14
  •  panic z=+0.13
  •  skepticism z=-0.87
  •  uncertainty z=+0.28
AI_boomp90

Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=-0.03
  •  euphoria z=+0.98
  •  fear z=-0.97
  •  frustration z=-2.08
  •  greed z=-0.15
  •  hope z=-0.28
  •  optimism z=-0.33
  •  panic z=+2.42
  •  skepticism z=-0.80
  •  uncertainty z=-0.63
interest_rate_insecurityp90

Attention is at the 90th percentile of its 30-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.

  •  confidence z=+0.70
  •  euphoria z=+0.82
  •  fear z=-1.53
  •  frustration z=-0.30
  •  greed z=+0.01
  •  hope z=+1.36
  •  optimism z=+0.29
  •  panic z=+2.09
  •  skepticism z=+0.50
  •  uncertainty z=-1.37

Emotion & Positioning Read

Sentiment: fear neutral, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -0.01 — Skepticism z-score: -0.14.
Fear most concentrated in dollar_strength
Average fear score for dollar_strength: 0.90.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.65), energy_insecurity (0.67), AI_boom (0.50).

Novelty / New Information

Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.006 vs 7-day baseline 0.009.

Watchlist

Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p72 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch fed_pivot: WoW rising (+185%)
If trend continues → duration longs, growth equity bias.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.

Data Quality Notes

Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)

Regime components: fear_z=-0.01, regime_score=+0.37

NarrativeTrendAtt. TodayDoDWoWPctile 30dBreadth
geopolitical_risk11.4950+1.0022-4.112672th10
energy_insecurity7.6013+0.3775-2.446770th9
AI_boom4.9099+1.0251+0.074290th9
commodities_supercycle4.3829-0.2748-1.688070th9
technology_paradigm_shift4.3721+0.2984+0.023447th10
sector_rotation4.2720-0.2432+0.199986th9
inflation4.2326-1.4750+0.651886th9
crypto_adoption4.0472+0.0967-0.507086th4
interest_rate_insecurity3.7648+0.5828+1.948690th10
recession3.6210-1.8515-0.107071th10

Posts

Narrative Scores

Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)

Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-03-30

NarrativeAttention TodayDay-over-DayWeek-over-Week
interest_rate_insecurity3.7648+0.5828 (+18.3%)+1.9486 (+107.3%)
fed_pivot1.9644+0.5964 (+43.6%)+1.2746 (+184.8%)
AI_boom4.9099+1.0251 (+26.4%)+0.0742 (+1.5%)
ex_usa_trade1.1786+0.4376 (+59.1%)+0.3960 (+50.6%)
technology_paradigm_shift4.3721+0.2984 (+7.3%)+0.0234 (+0.5%)
stagflation1.3617-0.5304 (-28.0%)+0.5531 (+68.4%)
deglobalisation0.4304+0.1282 (+42.4%)+0.0742 (+20.8%)
sector_rotation4.2720-0.2432 (-5.4%)+0.1999 (+4.9%)
demographic_shift0.3672-0.0695 (-15.9%)+0.0720 (+24.4%)
housing_bubble0.0786-0.0214 (-21.4%)-0.0791 (-50.2%)

Emotion Scores

Emotion per Narrative

Fetch Runs

126 total fetch runs  | Last run: 2026-03-30 22:00 UTC