Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-18 (built 04:15 UTC), 203 posts today across 11 subreddits.
Regime: risk-on — led by geopolitical_risk, while technology_paradigm_shift continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk greed ↓ skepticism ↓
- confidence z=-1.81
- euphoria z=+1.24
- fear z=-1.52
- frustration z=+0.74
- greed z=-2.32
- hope z=+0.48
- optimism z=-0.20
- panic z=-1.81
- skepticism z=-1.90
- uncertainty z=-1.12
2. energy_insecurity panic ↓ frustration ↓
- confidence z=-1.38
- euphoria z=+0.96
- fear z=-1.46
- frustration z=-2.03
- greed z=-1.37
- hope z=-0.36
- optimism z=-0.00
- panic z=-2.48
- skepticism z=-1.24
- uncertainty z=-1.01
3. technology_paradigm_shift confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.04
- euphoria z=+0.52
- fear z=-1.89
- frustration z=-0.88
- greed z=+0.40
- hope z=-1.14
- optimism z=-1.34
- panic z=+0.85
- skepticism z=+0.90
- uncertainty z=-1.36
4. AI_boom confidence ↓ fear ↓
- confidence z=-2.56
- euphoria z=+0.41
- fear z=-1.86
- frustration z=-0.08
- greed z=+0.53
- hope z=-0.51
- optimism z=-1.01
- panic z=+0.96
- skepticism z=+0.14
- uncertainty z=-1.25
5. commodities_supercycle panic ↓ frustration ↓
- confidence z=-1.68
- euphoria z=+0.80
- fear z=-1.18
- frustration z=-2.09
- greed z=-1.58
- hope z=-2.02
- optimism z=-1.58
- panic z=-2.48
- skepticism z=-1.50
- uncertainty z=-0.63
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
technology_paradigm_shift ↓ -0.72σ DoD
-0.72σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 6th percentile; breadth 11 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.19
- euphoria z=+0.10
- fear z=+0.09
- frustration z=+0.17
- greed z=-0.18
- hope z=-0.11
- optimism z=-0.14
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.33
- uncertainty z=-0.10
AI_boom ↓ -0.71σ DoD
-0.71σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 6th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.16
- euphoria z=-0.04
- fear z=+0.03
- frustration z=+0.13
- greed z=-0.12
- hope z=+0.13
- optimism z=-0.05
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.01
- uncertainty z=-0.10
sector_rotation ↓ -0.67σ DoD
-0.67σ vs own history — -5% change, now at 6th percentile; breadth 8 subreddits.
- confidence z=+0.17
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.01
- frustration z=+0.24
- greed z=-0.18
- hope z=+0.26
- optimism z=+0.06
- panic z=-0.06
- skepticism z=-0.01
- uncertainty z=-0.01
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
demographic_shift: +2.43σ WoW — trend accelerating
+2.43σ vs own history — +156% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.52
- fear z=-1.27
- frustration z=+0.19
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-2.26
- optimism z=-1.60
- skepticism z=+0.52
- uncertainty z=-0.39
housing_bubble: +1.73σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.73σ vs own history — +1003% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.00
- frustration z=+0.00
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.00
- uncertainty z=+0.00
ex_usa_trade: +1.32σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.32σ vs own history — +131% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.60
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.14
- frustration z=+0.50
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.00
- optimism z=-1.65
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-2.26
- uncertainty z=+0.58
↓ Top Decreases
deglobalisation: -2.37σ WoW — trend accelerating
-2.37σ vs own history — -51% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.90
- fear z=-1.68
- frustration z=+0.14
- greed z=+2.61
- hope z=-1.36
- optimism z=-1.58
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-3.17
- uncertainty z=-0.71
banking_crisis: -1.98σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.98σ vs own history — -27% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.58
- fear z=+0.55
- frustration z=+0.27
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.23
- optimism z=+1.32
- panic z=-2.85
- skepticism z=-0.86
- uncertainty z=+0.91
eu_us_relations: -1.47σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.47σ vs own history — -38% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.78
- fear z=-0.29
- frustration z=+2.85
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.60
- optimism z=-1.30
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.50
- uncertainty z=-0.93
Narratives to Look Out For
housing_bubblep100
Attention is at the 100th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+1.44
- fear z=-1.25
- frustration z=+0.96
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.63
- optimism z=-0.05
- panic z=+1.01
- skepticism z=+1.21
- uncertainty z=+0.15
demographic_shiftp97
Attention is at the 97th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.27
- fear z=-0.53
- frustration z=-0.26
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-1.26
- optimism z=-1.25
- skepticism z=+0.85
- uncertainty z=-0.11
ex_usa_tradep87
Attention is at the 87th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.61
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+1.34
- frustration z=-0.89
- greed z=-1.10
- hope z=-1.49
- optimism z=-1.64
- panic z=-0.74
- skepticism z=-0.74
- uncertainty z=-0.77
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.88 — Skepticism z-score: +0.68.
Fear most concentrated in defense_rearmament
Average fear score for defense_rearmament: 0.70.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.59), energy_insecurity (0.60).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: elevated
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.008 vs 7-day baseline 0.006.
Narratives driving novelty shift
energy_insecurity (+3.2%), geopolitical_risk (+2.8%).
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p16 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch demographic_shift: WoW rising (+156%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.88, regime_score=-2.24
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.6862 | -0.2662 | -0.7216 | 6th | 11 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.1594 | -0.1092 | -0.6274 | 3th | 10 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 5.0162 | -0.2612 | -0.5336 | 6th | 11 | |
| AI_boom | 4.9131 | -0.2693 | -0.1404 | 6th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 3.4664 | -0.1319 | +0.1017 | 6th | 8 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.4271 | -0.0314 | -0.3196 | 6th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 3.2900 | -0.1716 | +0.5203 | 6th | 8 | |
| inflation | 3.2871 | -0.1371 | -1.1318 | 6th | 8 | |
| recession | 2.4275 | -0.1461 | +0.2402 | 3th | 9 | |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 1.9502 | -0.0707 | -0.0053 | 23th | 8 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-18
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 38.6724 | +28.6087 (+284.3%) | +29.8365 (+337.7%) |
| energy_insecurity | 28.0340 | +21.9164 (+358.2%) | +22.3872 (+396.5%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 17.2790 | +14.0421 (+433.8%) | +14.1401 (+450.5%) |
| crypto_adoption | 11.7423 | +8.0929 (+221.8%) | +8.8253 (+302.6%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 12.9598 | +7.6041 (+142.0%) | +7.7099 (+146.9%) |
| AI_boom | 11.9185 | +6.7172 (+129.1%) | +7.0483 (+144.7%) |
| inflation | 10.4415 | +7.4663 (+250.9%) | +6.0929 (+140.1%) |
| sector_rotation | 8.4817 | +4.4357 (+109.6%) | +6.1328 (+261.1%) |
| interest_rate_insecurity | 6.8075 | +4.9573 (+267.9%) | +4.8738 (+252.0%) |
| banking_crisis | 5.9315 | +4.4888 (+311.1%) | +3.0203 (+103.7%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-18
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| demographic_shift | emergence | 1.218 | 0.641 | 0.476 | 0.656 | 0.344 | 0.000 |
| commodities_supercycle | crowding | 1.218 | 0.419 | 0.294 | 0.306 | 0.600 | 0.094 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 1.181 | 0.426 | 0.311 | 0.354 | 0.537 | 0.109 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 1.118 | 0.468 | 0.369 | 0.393 | 0.450 | 0.157 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.986 | 0.621 | 0.580 | 0.679 | 0.321 | 0.000 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.967 | 0.470 | 0.436 | 0.351 | 0.573 | 0.076 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | exhaustion | 0.851 | 0.472 | 0.504 | 0.435 | 0.510 | 0.055 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.850 | 0.434 | 0.461 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.000 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.834 | 0.395 | 0.424 | 0.318 | 0.682 | 0.000 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 0.784 | 0.387 | 0.443 | 0.337 | 0.620 | 0.043 |
| banking_crisis | exhaustion | 0.760 | 0.384 | 0.455 | 0.447 | 0.537 | 0.016 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.757 | 0.386 | 0.460 | 0.232 | 0.738 | 0.030 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.750 | 0.397 | 0.478 | 0.134 | 0.813 | 0.053 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.709 | 0.386 | 0.494 | 0.248 | 0.721 | 0.032 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 0.691 | 0.380 | 0.499 | 0.175 | 0.787 | 0.038 |
| stagflation | exhaustion | 0.651 | 0.339 | 0.471 | 0.442 | 0.558 | 0.000 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 0.616 | 0.339 | 0.500 | 0.321 | 0.679 | 0.000 |
| trade_protectionism | exhaustion | 0.603 | 0.343 | 0.519 | 0.226 | 0.745 | 0.029 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.588 | 0.303 | 0.464 | 0.316 | 0.684 | 0.000 |
| eu_us_relations | exhaustion | 0.498 | 0.331 | 0.615 | 0.189 | 0.811 | 0.000 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.459 | 0.259 | 0.514 | 0.347 | 0.653 | 0.000 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.457 | 0.286 | 0.576 | 0.224 | 0.776 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
199 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-18 04:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.52
Low Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -1.355 | -0.542 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.878 | -0.563 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.352 | -0.135 |
| Attention-Weighted Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.384 | -0.277 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.