Morning Note
Morning Note — 2026-04-13 (built 10:15 UTC), 234 posts today across 11 subreddits.
Regime: mixed — led by geopolitical_risk, while AI_boom continues to cool.
Current Top Market Narratives
1. geopolitical_risk uncertainty ↓
- confidence z=-0.03
- euphoria z=+0.61
- fear z=-1.16
- frustration z=-1.24
- greed z=-0.73
- hope z=-0.25
- optimism z=-1.14
- panic z=+1.28
- skepticism z=-1.33
- uncertainty z=-2.01
2. energy_insecurity frustration ↓ confidence ↓
- confidence z=-1.63
- euphoria z=+0.93
- fear z=-0.93
- frustration z=-2.03
- greed z=-1.25
- hope z=-1.37
- optimism z=-1.48
- panic z=+1.11
- skepticism z=-1.51
- uncertainty z=-1.19
3. technology_paradigm_shift fear ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.20
- euphoria z=+1.15
- fear z=-2.54
- frustration z=-0.16
- greed z=+0.33
- hope z=+0.10
- optimism z=-2.12
- panic z=+0.82
- skepticism z=+1.15
- uncertainty z=-0.78
4. AI_boom fear ↓ optimism ↓
- confidence z=-1.31
- euphoria z=+1.48
- fear z=-2.17
- frustration z=-0.92
- greed z=-0.28
- hope z=-0.61
- optimism z=-1.69
- panic z=+0.95
- skepticism z=-0.16
- uncertainty z=-0.91
5. commodities_supercycle frustration ↓ skepticism ↓
- confidence z=-1.59
- euphoria z=-0.07
- fear z=-0.93
- frustration z=-1.97
- greed z=+0.53
- hope z=+1.64
- optimism z=-0.91
- panic z=+0.85
- skepticism z=-1.79
- uncertainty z=-1.07
What Changed Since Yesterday
↑ Top Increases
No increases
↓ Top Decreases
technology_paradigm_shift ↓ -0.96σ DoD
-0.96σ vs own history — -8% change, now at 7th percentile; breadth 9 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.24
- euphoria z=+0.27
- fear z=-0.53
- frustration z=-0.14
- greed z=+0.05
- hope z=-0.08
- optimism z=-0.02
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=-0.41
- uncertainty z=-0.14
defense_rearmament ↓ -0.88σ DoD
-0.88σ vs own history — -6% change, now at 11th percentile; breadth 7 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.04
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.24
- frustration z=+0.26
- greed z=-0.02
- hope z=-0.06
- optimism z=+0.11
- panic z=+0.69
- skepticism z=+0.04
- uncertainty z=-0.08
AI_boom ↓ -0.88σ DoD
-0.88σ vs own history — -9% change, now at 4th percentile; breadth 6 subreddits.
- confidence z=-0.01
- euphoria z=+0.51
- fear z=+0.23
- frustration z=-0.17
- greed z=-0.03
- hope z=-0.29
- optimism z=+0.02
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.02
- uncertainty z=+0.09
What Changed Since Last Week
↑ Top Increases
demographic_shift: +1.10σ WoW — trend accelerating
+1.10σ vs own history — +55% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.43
- fear z=+0.26
- frustration z=+2.91
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=-0.26
- optimism z=-0.71
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+1.84
- uncertainty z=+1.39
stagflation: +1.07σ WoW — trend decelerating
+1.07σ vs own history — +105% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.22
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+2.17
- frustration z=+0.09
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.77
- optimism z=+0.00
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.26
- uncertainty z=-0.80
banking_crisis: +0.86σ WoW — trend accelerating
+0.86σ vs own history — +35% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-0.77
- fear z=-1.56
- frustration z=+0.33
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+0.67
- optimism z=-1.46
- panic z=+2.42
- skepticism z=-1.50
- uncertainty z=-1.03
↓ Top Decreases
dollar_strength: -2.26σ WoW — trend decelerating
-2.26σ vs own history — -65% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=+0.67
- fear z=-1.93
- frustration z=+0.89
- greed z=+0.00
- hope z=+2.23
- optimism z=-0.43
- panic z=-0.10
- skepticism z=-2.13
- uncertainty z=-1.68
energy_insecurity: -1.10σ WoW — trend decelerating
-1.10σ vs own history — -13% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.16
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.01
- frustration z=-1.43
- greed z=-1.19
- hope z=-1.93
- optimism z=-1.87
- panic z=+1.00
- skepticism z=-0.47
- uncertainty z=+0.02
commodities_supercycle: -1.09σ WoW — trend accelerating
-1.09σ vs own history — -17% change over the last 3 days.
- confidence z=-1.24
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=-0.18
- frustration z=-1.48
- greed z=-0.08
- hope z=+1.29
- optimism z=-1.33
- panic z=+1.01
- skepticism z=-1.00
- uncertainty z=+0.10
Narratives to Look Out For
banking_crisisp96
Attention is at the 96th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-1.51
- fear z=-1.64
- frustration z=-0.44
- greed z=-1.33
- hope z=+0.18
- optimism z=-0.91
- panic z=+0.89
- skepticism z=-0.92
- uncertainty z=-1.39
demographic_shiftp93
Attention is at the 93th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=+0.31
- fear z=-0.81
- frustration z=+0.22
- greed z=+1.02
- hope z=+0.47
- optimism z=-0.34
- panic z=+0.00
- skepticism z=+0.11
- uncertainty z=-0.32
stagflationp75
Attention is at the 75th percentile of its 260-day history — unusually high relative to recent levels.
- confidence z=-0.99
- euphoria z=+0.00
- fear z=+0.09
- frustration z=-1.18
- greed z=-0.27
- hope z=+1.75
- optimism z=+0.81
- panic z=+1.02
- skepticism z=-0.75
- uncertainty z=-1.64
Emotion & Positioning Read
Sentiment: fear subdued, skepticism neutral
Fear z-score: -1.23 — Skepticism z-score: +0.42.
Fear most concentrated in recession
Average fear score for recession: 0.67.
Narrative-weighted fear across top 3 narratives
geopolitical_risk (0.60), energy_insecurity (0.61), technology_paradigm_shift (0.40).
Novelty / New Information
Novelty: normal
Jensen–Shannon divergence: 0.007 vs 7-day baseline 0.008.
Watchlist
Watch geopolitical_risk: if it remains above p18 for 3 days and fear stays elevated
Action: defensive tilt / energy hedge bias.
Watch demographic_shift: WoW rising (+55%)
If trend continues → review positioning.
Watch recession / banking_crisis: elevated attention detected
If WoW continues rising and banking_crisis fear > 0.75 → raise quality bias, consider duration hedge.
Data Quality Notes
Percentage changes may be amplified from near-zero baselines
Moves from near-zero base can inflate % change; we prioritize absolute change and percentile ranks.
Data source: Reddit (retail/discussion attention)
Coverage is Reddit-based; interpret as retail/discussion attention, not institutional positioning.
Details (exact values)
Regime components: fear_z=-1.23, regime_score=-0.52
| Narrative | Trend | Att. Today | DoD | WoW | Pctile 260d | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 9.9881 | -0.3755 | -1.1889 | 11th | 11 | |
| energy_insecurity | 6.7866 | -0.2493 | -1.0237 | 14th | 11 | |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 4.7532 | -0.4277 | +0.7454 | 7th | 9 | |
| AI_boom | 4.1057 | -0.3952 | +0.4506 | 4th | 6 | |
| commodities_supercycle | 3.8818 | -0.0552 | -0.8202 | 29th | 10 | |
| inflation | 3.5927 | -0.4361 | -0.0165 | 7th | 9 | |
| crypto_adoption | 2.8879 | -0.2282 | -0.0935 | 4th | 6 | |
| banking_crisis | 2.2415 | -0.0418 | +0.5866 | 93th | 10 | |
| sector_rotation | 2.1724 | -0.1457 | -1.0036 | 7th | 7 | |
| recession | 2.1298 | -0.0896 | -0.7775 | 7th | 7 |
Posts
Narrative Scores
Fastest-Growing Narratives (Attention Movers)
Ranked by weighted DoD (40%) + WoW (60%) absolute attention change. Most recent day: 2026-04-13
| Narrative | Attention Today | Day-over-Day | Week-over-Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical_risk | 20.0542 | +9.8135 (+95.8%) | +7.6290 (+61.4%) |
| energy_insecurity | 13.6768 | +6.4482 (+89.2%) | +4.8744 (+55.4%) |
| commodities_supercycle | 8.5731 | +4.4459 (+107.7%) | +3.2633 (+61.5%) |
| banking_crisis | 4.8648 | +2.5193 (+107.4%) | +2.9374 (+152.4%) |
| technology_paradigm_shift | 7.4068 | +2.5961 (+54.0%) | +2.8559 (+62.8%) |
| AI_boom | 6.1762 | +2.2292 (+56.5%) | +2.1766 (+54.4%) |
| crypto_adoption | 4.7717 | +1.9043 (+66.4%) | +1.9975 (+72.0%) |
| recession | 4.1948 | +1.9434 (+86.3%) | +1.0306 (+32.6%) |
| defense_rearmament | 3.1833 | +1.2114 (+61.4%) | +1.5086 (+90.1%) |
| stagflation | 2.7950 | +0.8898 (+46.7%) | +1.5710 (+128.4%) |
SIR Narrative Lifecycle Scores
Cross-sectional SIR epidemic model (Shiller 2017). R₀ = contagion / (recovery + 0.05). Most recent day: 2026-04-13
| Narrative | State | R₀ | c (contagion) | r (recovery) | I (infected) | S (susceptible) | R (recovered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| banking_crisis | crowding | 1.617 | 0.713 | 0.391 | 0.743 | 0.028 | 0.230 |
| commodities_supercycle | exhaustion | 1.227 | 0.507 | 0.363 | 0.420 | 0.450 | 0.130 |
| interest_rate_insecurity | crowding | 1.141 | 0.479 | 0.370 | 0.238 | 0.666 | 0.095 |
| stagflation | crowding | 1.130 | 0.524 | 0.413 | 0.482 | 0.501 | 0.018 |
| energy_insecurity | exhaustion | 1.034 | 0.435 | 0.370 | 0.254 | 0.644 | 0.102 |
| geopolitical_risk | exhaustion | 1.031 | 0.445 | 0.382 | 0.250 | 0.650 | 0.100 |
| demographic_shift | exhaustion | 0.862 | 0.502 | 0.532 | 0.565 | 0.435 | 0.000 |
| inflation | exhaustion | 0.831 | 0.414 | 0.448 | 0.204 | 0.752 | 0.044 |
| energy_transition | exhaustion | 0.813 | 0.376 | 0.413 | 0.364 | 0.623 | 0.013 |
| technology_paradigm_shift | exhaustion | 0.759 | 0.426 | 0.511 | 0.157 | 0.809 | 0.034 |
| recession | exhaustion | 0.740 | 0.398 | 0.488 | 0.234 | 0.758 | 0.009 |
| defense_rearmament | exhaustion | 0.740 | 0.402 | 0.493 | 0.339 | 0.649 | 0.012 |
| sector_rotation | exhaustion | 0.652 | 0.371 | 0.519 | 0.275 | 0.715 | 0.010 |
| AI_boom | exhaustion | 0.650 | 0.354 | 0.494 | 0.179 | 0.821 | 0.000 |
| fed_pivot | exhaustion | 0.650 | 0.327 | 0.453 | 0.211 | 0.789 | 0.000 |
| deglobalisation | exhaustion | 0.643 | 0.393 | 0.562 | 0.230 | 0.770 | 0.000 |
| ex_usa_trade | exhaustion | 0.632 | 0.355 | 0.511 | 0.236 | 0.764 | 0.000 |
| crypto_adoption | exhaustion | 0.575 | 0.326 | 0.517 | 0.183 | 0.817 | 0.000 |
| housing_bubble | exhaustion | 0.435 | 0.256 | 0.537 | 0.203 | 0.797 | 0.000 |
| dollar_strength | exhaustion | 0.414 | 0.254 | 0.563 | 0.311 | 0.689 | 0.000 |
Emotion Scores
Emotion per Narrative
(Ctrl/Cmd+click to select multiple)
Fetch Runs
180 total fetch runs | Last run: 2026-04-13 10:00 UTC
Composite Fear Metric
-1.06
Below-Average Fear
Weighted composite of fear indicators
(positive = above-average fear, negative = below-average fear)
| Component | Weight | Value (z-score) | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear Z-Score of Daily Highest-Attention Narrative (geopolitical_risk) | 0.40 | -0.684 | -0.274 |
| Average Fear Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.30 | -1.231 | -0.369 |
| Average Uncertainty Level (Emotion Intensity Z-Score) | 0.10 | -1.552 | -0.155 |
| Average Fear Z-Score Across All Narratives (Current Week) | 0.20 | -1.287 | -0.257 |
Composite = weighted sum of component z-scores, normalised by the sum of weights for available components. Weights can be customised; they are normalised to sum to 1.0 automatically.